Originally posted by chico2663
Glad to have you back.






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Anyway back to reality, I picked up 20 shares of this back on April 16th and as you can see by the chart, I plan on selling half when it gets to the $112.50 area, and the other half at around the $120 area. Either that or I'm out with a stop on a daily close below $98.18. I set up an OCO (one cancels the other) order so this one is pretty much on autopilot. I circled the day I bought it (4/16), then it immediately fell right down to $102.50 before coming back up. It has bounced off of the $102.50 support level a few times already before just recently taking off a little bit. On Thursday we got some good news regarding Boeing so that explains the gap up and a continue day on high volume. On Friday it rested a little bit but didn't give the price back, so now we are inside the breakup candle. I think we hit my first target sometime in the next few weeks, and at that time I'll bring my stop price up to my starting price of $106.60 so I lock in the gains while allowing the other half to try for the $120 level. That price represents the big break down candle from last February when the **-Flu hit the market.
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So I bought 15 shares of this at $69.65, and placed a stop right at the low on the chart ($65.72). The stochastics are on the bottom with the 2 lines starting to separate. Volume this week is notably lower than the volume from the week before but I think that is more a function of the entire market pretty much taking the week off last week. I'm looking to get out at around the $78-$79 level in the next couple of weeks.
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Since then the stock has been range bound with the bottom at around $23, and the top at about $26.50. So now the price is bumping up against the upper levels of the range again. The stochastics aren't in the oversold territory yet with the 2 lines far apart which is good. The MAC'D is pretty neutral, the volume is slightly less than normal, and finally the momentum meter is green but flat and pretty low on the scale. I think this stock either grinds higher slowly or gets up to the resistance levels and starts to eat time off the clock. If it gets rejected again and comes back down this time, I'll be looking to buy $2gs more at the 20 WMA which will probably be at $24.50 (or around 80 shares). If it breaks up above resistance and runs, I'll have to wait for a retest of this resistance level before buying more.
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First off the 1st thing you see is that the market has been on a steady pace up the side of the mountain for the entire time. Only are only a couple months in there were we saw a downturn. Even last year's dip was short lived. So as we say the trend is your friend until your friend is banging the trend on your couch in the pile driver position. That is the main take away so I have to give this a +3. We do have some warning signs to keep in mind however. That pesky 20 Month Moving Average is a long way from the price. In fact the SPY can drop probably 60 points and still not be at the 20 MMA. That's huge and if it were to happen people would be flipping out over it while in fact the trend wouldn't be anywhere near any of my asshole friends yet. Ok maybe a quick hand job but that's about it. I have to give this a -1. Look at the stochastic lines, they are in the stupidly overbought condition and getting stupider. As you can see however the stochastic can and does hang out in the overbought level for quite a while. It is more a signal that the market is just grinding higher. I can't give this a positive number at this time so we put it at -.5. The MAC'D is very high but still climbing so I call that a neutral thing as well but keep aware of just how high it is +.5. This month the SPY put in a hangman doji candle which isn't good. A hangman candle means that people are buying the dip but the up side just isn't coming through. We'll give that a -1 for a score to make the overall SPY chart a +1.Now lets look at the 3 Year chart of the IWM with monthly candle closes.
So the first thing that jumps off the page at me is that the trend is still my friend here with the chart solidly above the 20 MMA so until it gets below I have to put that piece of the puzzle as a positive development but the score isn't as strong as the SPY trend so I'll give it a +2. The next thing I see is that the IWM can't seem to get above the 227.70 level with 4 months now of reaching but not able to put it behind it and use that level as support. I have to give that a -1. Then look at the last 3 candles, we have a doji, then a pseudo doji (which is a fatter doji basically), then a definite hangman. I got to call this a -1 on the score card. Next lets look at the 20MMA again is is way too far extended from the price. That's a negative in my book -1. The stochastics are stuck again in the overbought condition so we'll call that almost neutral again because the 2 lines are in lock step and don't have the look of moving down yet -.5. The MAC'D is high but still climbing so we'll give it a +.5. Total score -1.I have a small short position on this one. Actually it is the 3X short play (TZA). If this drops below the 208ish level or where the first doji candle low is, it may be a bad month for the small to mid caps.What are the financials doing? Again back to the 3 Year chart with monthly candle closes to find out.
The trend here is your friend again and she's not even looking at your nasty beer drink slob of a friend yet, so your still in the pile drive position yourself and puting a pounding down on that. This gets a +3.5. The 20 MMA is still far away and getting farther so we have to give that a -1. The stochastics are in the overbought area but they are still rising and the 2 lines are still apart from one another. +1. The MAC'D is rising still +1 so nothing is wrong with the financials at the moment. +4.5 I'm not buying for long term because this train has left the station but looking for short couple of week swing trades is in the cards possibly.How is the QQQ been lately you ask? Well looking at the 3 year chart with monthly closes will tell the tale of the tape here as well.
Again the trend is still your friend here as well, but she isn't as strong of a trend as you may think. She is absolutely looking at all of your friends as they come over and just waiting to make her move on one of them when you go away to take care of your sick grandmother one week. Still I its a trend so we'll give it the +2. The reason this trend is still your friend here has more to do with stuff that happened long ago, the last 5 months have been rocky, a doji candle, a ascending hammer candle, a hangman candle then a regular candle that looks like a break up candle next to all the other near by candles, and finally another hangman candle from last month. This is preyy weak stuff here I have to give it a -2. Look at the stochastics, overbought for a while yet but just recently it has opened up slightly so I'll say it is no score 0. MAC'D is at the same level it has been at for months as well, I'll have to give that a no score as well 0. There is significant selling volume for 2 out of the last 3 months -1. Oh, did I mention that the 20MMA is far away again. Seems like a running theme throughout the entire market -1. Total score -2.Hey Mr. Pumper how does the SMH look? I suggest you look at the 3 Year chart with monthly candle closes.
OK stop pestering me. Again this chart has the freindly trend here but only because of past deeds. Don't turn your back on this one it got the look of leaving pretty soon. +1. Even your biggest goofball friend is being looked at with this one. Have a look at the last 5 month's worth of candles and I say that warning signals are going off here. We have 2 ascending hammers followed up by a large hangman, another ascending hammer and just last month another hangman. Al while not being able to get above the 260 level.Score this as a -2.5. Then again with the 20MMA being way below the current price -1. Stochastics are level and overbought again, -.5. The MAC'D is still rising so +.5 for that indicator. Look at the volume, doesn't it appear like there is more trading going on lately? Sure looks that way to me and I have to think that most of that trading is selling and not buying -.5. Total score here -3.This is why I have a small short position in the QQQs (actually I bought the SQQQ). The whole DAQ looks like it is ready for a larger pullback here and when it goes, the entire market will probably come back with it.So now lets have a look at what I like to think of my favorite canary in the coal mine indicator, but this time we'll be looking at the 2 Year chart with weekly candle closes to get a quicker acting look at what the market is doing lately.
Can't help but notice the trend yet again here. +3. The top of the trend is wavering slightly but you really can't complain much -.5. Then the volume is lighter than normal and its been that way for a while -.5. The Stochastics are rolling over and pointing down with the 2 lines starting to separate -1. The 20WMA is a little bit away but not that bad at this time -.5 Total score +.5.All in all I see the market rising this next month but do not be surprised if things turn bad, and when they do it can get real bad before seeing real support. The market has a theme through all indices of being overbought and far away from the magnetic 20 period moving average. The trend is your friend so we keep at it but keep a keen eye out for a catalyst to turn it around. One real bad news day can stop everything in its tracks.
First off the 1st thing you see is that the market has been on a steady pace up the side of the mountain for the entire time. Only are only a couple months in there were we saw a downturn. Even last year's dip was short lived. So as we say the trend is your friend until your friend is banging the trend on your couch in the pile driver position. That is the main take away so I have to give this a +3. We do have some warning signs to keep in mind however. That pesky 20 Month Moving Average is a long way from the price. In fact the SPY can drop probably 60 points and still not be at the 20 MMA. That's huge and if it were to happen people would be flipping out over it while in fact the trend wouldn't be anywhere near any of my asshole friends yet. Ok maybe a quick hand job but that's about it. I have to give this a -1. Look at the stochastic lines, they are in the stupidly overbought condition and getting stupider. As you can see however the stochastic can and does hang out in the overbought level for quite a while. It is more a signal that the market is just grinding higher. I can't give this a positive number at this time so we put it at -.5. The MAC'D is very high but still climbing so I call that a neutral thing as well but keep aware of just how high it is +.5. This month the SPY put in a hangman doji candle which isn't good. A hangman candle means that people are buying the dip but the up side just isn't coming through. We'll give that a -1 for a score to make the overall SPY chart a +1.Now lets look at the 3 Year chart of the IWM with monthly candle closes.
So the first thing that jumps off the page at me is that the trend is still my friend here with the chart solidly above the 20 MMA so until it gets below I have to put that piece of the puzzle as a positive development but the score isn't as strong as the SPY trend so I'll give it a +2. The next thing I see is that the IWM can't seem to get above the 227.70 level with 4 months now of reaching but not able to put it behind it and use that level as support. I have to give that a -1. Then look at the last 3 candles, we have a doji, then a pseudo doji (which is a fatter doji basically), then a definite hangman. I got to call this a -1 on the score card. Next lets look at the 20MMA again is is way too far extended from the price. That's a negative in my book -1. The stochastics are stuck again in the overbought condition so we'll call that almost neutral again because the 2 lines are in lock step and don't have the look of moving down yet -.5. The MAC'D is high but still climbing so we'll give it a +.5. Total score -1.I have a small short position on this one. Actually it is the 3X short play (TZA). If this drops below the 208ish level or where the first doji candle low is, it may be a bad month for the small to mid caps.What are the financials doing? Again back to the 3 Year chart with monthly candle closes to find out.
The trend here is your friend again and she's not even looking at your nasty beer drink slob of a friend yet, so your still in the pile drive position yourself and puting a pounding down on that. This gets a +3.5. The 20 MMA is still far away and getting farther so we have to give that a -1. The stochastics are in the overbought area but they are still rising and the 2 lines are still apart from one another. +1. The MAC'D is rising still +1 so nothing is wrong with the financials at the moment. +4.5 I'm not buying for long term because this train has left the station but looking for short couple of week swing trades is in the cards possibly.How is the QQQ been lately you ask? Well looking at the 3 year chart with monthly closes will tell the tale of the tape here as well.
Again the trend is still your friend here as well, but she isn't as strong of a trend as you may think. She is absolutely looking at all of your friends as they come over and just waiting to make her move on one of them when you go away to take care of your sick grandmother one week. Still I its a trend so we'll give it the +2. The reason this trend is still your friend here has more to do with stuff that happened long ago, the last 5 months have been rocky, a doji candle, a ascending hammer candle, a hangman candle then a regular candle that looks like a break up candle next to all the other near by candles, and finally another hangman candle from last month. This is preyy weak stuff here I have to give it a -2. Look at the stochastics, overbought for a while yet but just recently it has opened up slightly so I'll say it is no score 0. MAC'D is at the same level it has been at for months as well, I'll have to give that a no score as well 0. There is significant selling volume for 2 out of the last 3 months -1. Oh, did I mention that the 20MMA is far away again. Seems like a running theme throughout the entire market -1. Total score -2.Hey Mr. Pumper how does the SMH look? I suggest you look at the 3 Year chart with monthly candle closes.
OK stop pestering me. Again this chart has the freindly trend here but only because of past deeds. Don't turn your back on this one it got the look of leaving pretty soon. +1. Even your biggest goofball friend is being looked at with this one. Have a look at the last 5 month's worth of candles and I say that warning signals are going off here. We have 2 ascending hammers followed up by a large hangman, another ascending hammer and just last month another hangman. Al while not being able to get above the 260 level.Score this as a -2.5. Then again with the 20MMA being way below the current price -1. Stochastics are level and overbought again, -.5. The MAC'D is still rising so +.5 for that indicator. Look at the volume, doesn't it appear like there is more trading going on lately? Sure looks that way to me and I have to think that most of that trading is selling and not buying -.5. Total score here -3.This is why I have a small short position in the QQQs (actually I bought the SQQQ). The whole DAQ looks like it is ready for a larger pullback here and when it goes, the entire market will probably come back with it.So now lets have a look at what I like to think of my favorite canary in the coal mine indicator, but this time we'll be looking at the 2 Year chart with weekly candle closes to get a quicker acting look at what the market is doing lately.
Can't help but notice the trend yet again here. +3. The top of the trend is wavering slightly but you really can't complain much -.5. Then the volume is lighter than normal and its been that way for a while -.5. The Stochastics are rolling over and pointing down with the 2 lines starting to separate -1. The 20WMA is a little bit away but not that bad at this time -.5 Total score +.5.All in all I see the market rising this next month but do not be surprised if things turn bad, and when they do it can get real bad before seeing real support. The market has a theme through all indices of being overbought and far away from the magnetic 20 period moving average. The trend is your friend so we keep at it but keep a keen eye out for a catalyst to turn it around. One real bad news day can stop everything in its tracks.



