Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

FINRA released margin debt data today, up 71.6128% YoY, the highest since early 2000. This is only the 5th time since 1959 that margin debt has been up over 60% YoY, and in all previous instances, the Nasdaq has fallen over 30% within 13 months.

Josher, Wouldn't you say the sheer percentage/volume from retail investors is significantly higher now than it was the previous 4 times that the market tanked? in other words the cash available is at a higher favorable ratio vs the margin credit than it was the previous 4 times we were at these levels, and probably more important than this is the QE and endless money supply backstop of the fed.

i think this is a case where the road team in game 7 is simply much better top to bottom than the home team. so while home teams in the NBA win game 7's about 80% of the time, they do lose about 20% of the time so you do not want to blindly bet on a home team in the NBA playoffs just because it is game 7. we need to do our handicapping!!

The NAZZY is at 13,914 as i type this. i will be shocked i mean SHOCKED if it sits at Under 10,000 thirteen mos from now in May 2021. 11,000? maybe. Sub 10,000? maybe a 2-3% chance of that happening.

My .02.

[flyingillini]

I have had Cisco since 1993, I have mad a ton of money on it over the years. It's pretty much a dead stock... It's high now but always goes down to the 30s etc etc.. I am thinking of finally getting out of it after almost 30 years.... Any ideas if I should just keep it or get out?

[homie1975]

Besides crypto and blockchain, the largest addressable market over the next 10-20 years is in artificial intelligence. Our entire lives are already mostly driven by AI, as evidence of social media driven algorithms enticing large groups of people to do really dumb things. I’ll leave it at that. But not only with advertising, but with research and development models. What previously required years of research by human input into computers, can now be performed exponentially by software neural networks.

I’ll use medicine as an example. If I observe XYZ chemical has properties that can kill an ant, and I wanted to find a way to to test if this chemical kill specific cells, the type of molecules within the cell, the conformational structure of the protein it kills and how it binds...these are questions which would normally take years to decades of human labor and costs to find the answer...to come up with a suitable pharmaceutical drug.
Artificial intelligence/Deep learning can eliminate years and massive amounts of money to find the answers, because an appropriately developed neural network can find solutions exponentially.

there’s a lot of secrecy behind Palantir and their software, but, when you boil it down it common knowledge they have acquired the top minds in the world to work there and have found a way to develop neural networking platforms to find solutions to any problem set a government agency or business could ask. IBM, Salesforce, Oracle...none of them hold a candle to PLTR and they know it, the US government knows it...that’s why they keep them close. The country who masters AI will rule the world, it’s as simple as that.

Right now the only limitations for Palantir are its B2B model and scalability. But I think if you look at Palantir as a business, it’s potentially Lockheed Martin and Salesforce rolled into one.

Thanks TRob

i opened a position in SE. i am in TSLA. still waiting on a few others. i like where i am at. onward and upward!

[homie1975]

I have had Cisco since 1993, I have mad a ton of money on it over the years. It's pretty much a dead stock... It's high now but always goes down to the 30s etc etc.. I am thinking of finally getting out of it after almost 30 years.... Any ideas if I should just keep it or get out?

so your cost base is about 1.00 to 1.50 ??

[flyingillini]

so your cost base is about 1.00 to 1.50 ??

I’ve bought and sold off and on. Up around 250k on it.

[homie1975]

NFLX after the bell.........

[Snowball]

went all bearish with June puts on UPRO, SVXY and QLD.

[KVB]

FINRA released margin debt data today, up 71.6128% YoY, the highest since early 2000. This is only the 5th time since 1959 that margin debt has been up over 60% YoY, and in all previous instances, the Nasdaq has fallen over 30% within 13 months.

Josher, Wouldn't you say the sheer percentage/volume from retail investors is significantly higher now than it was the previous 4 times that the market tanked? in other words the cash available is at a higher favorable ratio vs the margin credit than it was the previous 4 times we were at these levels, and probably more important than this is the QE and endless money supply backstop of the fed.

i think this is a case where the road team in game 7 is simply much better top to bottom than the home team. so while home teams in the NBA win game 7's about 80% of the time, they do lose about 20% of the time so you do not want to blindly bet on a home team in the NBA playoffs just because it is game 7. we need to do our handicapping!!

The NAZZY is at 13,914 as i type this. i will be shocked i mean SHOCKED if it sits at Under 10,000 thirteen mos from now in May 2021. 11,000? maybe. Sub 10,000? maybe a 2-3% chance of that happening.

My .02.

Not only did I recognize what Josh is saying, but I sort of had these same thoughts that homie is having.

For the margin stat though, it might just all be relative and we can still expect that drop. Or, we could look at a lot of that new "gambling type" stock money on margin, knowing full well most of that gets fleeced (usually).

If that new money has an inherent risk, being new, new to margin, inexperienced, getting in too late on a run, etc. then we know some pullbacks, even if just sectors, could lead to margin calls and further selling. Which could then lead to a broader dip.

The elements are there, but so is the question of modern day investing, stimulus, gov't help, plunge protection, etc. so I 'm not so sure I've comfortably worked out just what will happen here.

I might keep an eye on fibb retracements and moving average levels to seek some confirmation should we see a pullback.

I'm also on record saying, last August, that the market would be flat over the next year. That is, it could go up a bunch, but by August it goes back to where it was last August. I said that before that stimulus and before Biden was in.

I still see it as true, but I also see my hypothesis as starting to get a little shaky.

[DISTROYA]

Thanks a lot you old fart biden. Hate this guy.

[RoyBacon]

Good job bears.

I still think gold will hit new highs this year and next. Coin can be nibbled on here.

[homie1975]

Not only did I recognize what Josh is saying, but I sort of had these same thoughts that homie is having.

For the margin stat though, it might just all be relative and we can still expect that drop. Or, we could look at a lot of that new "gambling type" stock money on margin, knowing full well most of that gets fleeced (usually).

If that new money has an inherent risk, being new, new to margin, inexperienced, getting in too late on a run, etc. then we know some pullbacks, even if just sectors, could lead to margin calls and further selling. Which could then lead to a broader dip.

The elements are there, but so is the question of modern day investing, stimulus, gov't help, plunge protection, etc. so I 'm not so sure I've comfortably worked out just what will happen here.

I might keep an eye on fibb retracements and moving average levels to seek some confirmation should we see a pullback.

I'm also on record saying, last August, that the market would be flat over the next year. That is, it could go up a bunch, but by August it goes back to where it was last August. I said that before that stimulus and before Biden was in.

I still see it as true, but I also see my hypothesis as starting to get a little shaky.

I always remember the Pistons v Heat Game 7 in Miami in the 2005 Eastern Conf Finals. Heat were the home team but I believed the Pistons were simply the better team, so I took them ML. one of my buddies kept repeating pregame, "but home teams in game 7 in the NBA playoffs win 80% of the time".

my reply: "I think this is one of the 20% when the the Road team wins"


https://www.espn.com/nba/recap?gameId=250606014

Pistons
54-28, 22-19 AWAY

88

Final

DET	21	24	19	24	88
MIA	23	17	26	16	82

82

Heat
59-23, 35-6 HOME

• [*=center]Gamecast
  [*=center]Recap
  [*=center]Box Score
  [*=center]Play-by-Play
  [*=center]Team Stats

Wade held scoreless during fourth quarter

Jun 6, 2005

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MIAMI (AP) -- Larry Brown walked through the front door of the Detroit Pistons' packed locker room, scanning the celebration with his eyes aglow and his smile wide.

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"Where are my guys?" Brown asked before spotting Lindsey Hunter and telling him he loved him and then working his way to Tayshaun Prince and reaching in for a hand slap.
"That's what we're all about," Brown said.
The pressure of Game 7 didn't faze the defending champions -- not in the slightest.
In a deciding game that stayed close the entire 48 minutes, the Pistons summoned their experience and played with calmness and poise down the stretch to defeat the Miami Heat 88-82 on Monday night in the final game of the Eastern Conference finals.
Now it's back to the NBA Finals for the team often dismissed as a fluke champion -- a disparaging label if there ever was one, but one the Pistons can shake with four wins against the San Antonio Spurs.
Dwyane Wade played for Miami after missing Game 6 because of a rib muscle injury, but he was only good for brief stretches. He finished with 20 points but didn't score over the final 15 minutes.
"I couldn't be as athletic as I wanted to be, but I did what I could do," Wade said.
Richard Hamilton scored 22 points, Rasheed Wallace added 20 -- including two foul shots that put Detroit ahead for good with 1:26 remaining -- and the Pistons closed the game with a 10-3 run to hand Miami yet another heartbreaking Game 7 loss on its home floor.
"That's what we do!" Hamilton yelled in a jubilant locker room, repeating the phrase over and over, even after he headed to the showers.
Detroit won for the 10th straight time when needing one victory to clinch a series, the second-longest such streak behind the Lakers' record 12-game run that ended in 2004. The Pistons also became the first team in 23 years to win an Eastern Conference finals Game 7 on the road. They open the Finals on Thursday night at San Antonio.
Shaquille O'Neal led Miami with 27 points, but the Heat faltered offensively in the final two minutes -- with Wade the biggest culprit when he forced up a 20-footer that missed badly with 1:13 left.
Wallace followed with a putback of Prince's miss to make it 82-79, and Detroit went 6-for-6 from the foul line the rest of the way.
"A lot of laughter and shouting," Antonio McDyess said of the scene in the Pistons' locker room in the moments after they walked triumphantly off the court. "I just sat back and sucked it all in."
Wade scored 12 points in the third quarter, but he was wincing in pain in the game's final minutes. His basket with 3:10 left in the third quarter was his last of the night.
Detroit's victory extended Brown's coaching career for at least four more games, pitting him against his good friend, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, and another dominant big man, Tim Duncan, in the Finals. The Pistons and Spurs split their season series 1-1.
"I'm thrilled. It's like a dream come true. Coming from where I come from, Coatesville, Pennsylvania, and now to get the opportunity to play for my second championship at 27, it's a great feeling," said Hamilton, who has scored 20 or more points in 16 of the Pistons' 17 postseason games.
Brown was elated as the final seconds ticked down, racing up the sideline to embrace Wallace near midcourt and then sprinting back to his bench to whoop it up a little more.
The sentimental pangs that Brown was experiencing before Game 6 were diminished this time.
"Not so much as the last game," Brown said. "I was home, my family was around. Now, I'm just excited about the opportunity, because these don't come around very much."
Brown has been with the Pistons for only two seasons, one of the shortest stints of his nomadic coaching career -- but easily the most successful.
"It's turned out way beyond my wildest dreams," Brown said.
Brown will visit the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., soon after Detroit's season ends to address a medical problem that developed after complications from hip surgery. If surgeons are not able to correct it, Brown plans to retire from coaching. Speculation has been rampant that if he leaves Detroit, Brown may join the Cleveland Cavaliers' front office.
Detroit got 18 points from Chauncey Billups and 13 from Prince, proving again that a team effort can be more than enough to defeat two superstars. That's what the Pistons did against O'Neal and Kobe Bryant in the NBA Finals last year, and that's what they did against O'Neal and Wade, too.
"There's so much work ahead of us," Detroit center Elden Campbell said. "It's a relief to get past them. It was a tough series."
Wade was noticeably slow during the game's first few minutes, laboring as he ran at half-speed and missing his first three shots. There was a brief burst midway through the first quarter when Wade started to look more like himself, sprinting downcourt and feeding an alley-oop pass to O'Neal before hitting a 3-pointer for a 17-9 lead.



Miami led 23-21 after one quarter behind 10 points from O'Neal on 5-for-6 shooting, but the Pistons went ahead early in the second quarter and stayed in front for the rest of the half.
Hamilton was the Pistons' main offensive weapon, shooting 8-for-10 for 16 points, but the Heat pulled to 45-40 at halftime after Eddie Jones hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from midcourt.
Wade was noticeably looser early in the third quarter, knocking down his first two shots and looking to penetrate the lane. But as good as his offense was, Detroit's was just as efficient.
"Anybody in my situation would do the same thing, try to gut it out," said Wade, who took a painkilling injection before the game. "It came down to the end, them making plays. And we didn't."
Game notes
Damon Jones sprained his left ankle in the first quarter but returned before halftime. He scored only one point. ... This was the 91st Game 7 in NBA history. The home team has a 74-17
record. ... The Pistons are 4-4 in Game 7s, while Miami is 2-2.

[homie1975]

went all bearish with June puts on UPRO, SVXY and QLD.

SNOWer can we get that earnings whispers chart you throw up there before the week? i can find it but it's more fun when it arrives from you LOL

[Iona]

Fasten your seat belts !!!

[homie1975]

Iona thank u I'm sorry for conflating u and Snower

[trobin31]

Academy sports & outdoor; ASO this ties into my thesis of everyone sitting around the past year becoming fat fuks.., so this, along with WW & PLNT, should allow you to get exposure to lots of capital flowing into getting the cheddar out of ladies asses.

So, besides this theme of reopening and people getting their sexy back...the float is low, the short interest is insane and the chart looks ready for another leg up and there’s deep value to protect against rising interest rates..

BREAK

URANIUM
I see a BOON in clean energy initiatives and you cannot realistically mention the CLEANEST form of all..NUCLEAR energy...I know sounds counter intuitive but it’s facts...more people will die this year from inhalation of carbon based fuels than all the deaths from nuclear incidents combined. This is same perception people have of Trains or Airplanes being more dangerous than a car ride...Production reduction incoming with several mine closures and pricing is set to explode as both a commodity and energy source...sounds like music to my cauliflower shaped ears....COMMODITY ENERGY Two sectors I am extremely bullish on this year.

Uranium stonks...one chart after another controlled by the same computer algos..right now they all have one thing in common...and that’s a goal post formed this past week...so either a bull trap or another leg up...but ones thing for sure is uranium is way underpriced.

$URG $UEC $CCJ seem like reasonable Uranium plays...I would see any bearish momentum as a buying opportunity and plan to hold until you meet return goals

BREAK
BITCOIN/CRYPTO

Identified a wykoff dump forming last weekend and it pretty much filled out exactly how I drew it with my crayon. Still waiting on confirmatory sign of weakness but I sold out of all my alts, kept 1/4 ETH & 1/2 BTC...the rest o dumped. I think we have something similar to 2013 cycle which saw a 60% wreckage before going parabolic...given the leveraged positions it’s not hard to see this happening soon. Raise cash and pounding anything below 34k

[navyblue81]

Anyone here have a position or an opinion on SOS? Did some research on it and seems like it could be the next MARa or RIOT. I had MARa for a long time (wish I hung in to it). But see a lot of upside for SOS. $4 now but that’s how MARa started out and was $30 before you knew it.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK so I still holding steady on my initial dip of my toes for the for the IWM short (TZA).

Yesterday, I grabbed up a few hundred shares of CGC @ $27.50. Stop Loss @ $25.11, and will start to exit at $28.75, and $32 area in the upcoming weeks.

Also picked up 100 shares ITA @ $106, stop @ $98,and start to exit @ $113.

[Madison]

Anyone here have a position or an opinion on SOS? Did some research on it and seems like it could be the next MARa or RIOT. I had MARa for a long time (wish I hung in to it). But see a lot of upside for SOS. $4 now but that’s how MARa started out and was $30 before you knew it.

SOS 4.4541 -0.1459 -3.1717% : SOS Limited - Yahoo Finance

????

[Madison]

SOS 4.4541 -0.1459 -3.1717% : SOS Limited - Yahoo Finance

????

Articles galore.

[Snowball]

SNOWer can we get that earnings whispers chart you throw up there before the week? i can find it but it's more fun when it arrives from you LOL

pm me if you want a chart.

i'm still on June puts (in the money) UPRO QLD and SVXY

[homie1975]

pm me if you want a chart.

i'm still on June puts (in the money) UPRO QLD and SVXY

i like the one IONA puts out there during heavy earnings season. i know i can Google it but i'm lazy. speaking of GOOGL, up over 4% after earnings. me likes it !!

[Slurry Pumper]

OK today is Economic Theatre Day and we have a special presentation later on tonight when they trout out Grandpa Joe in a rare evening appearance. I'm looking for the market to have an early shake out operation probably to the down side, then the market will take a nap until about 2 PM when the show starts. The Fed will come out and lie through his teeth and tell everyone inflation is transitory and don't believe your lying wallet when it comes to increases in prices for everything you're buying because his economic data shows that inflation is just now up to the 2% level. Then the economic forecast will be as bullish as can be so the market will take off like a rocket for the rest of the week.

Then in May like I predicted the market will complete the blow off top and people will realize that the Fed, Grandpa Joe, that Yellen bitch and the whole crew where indeed full of shyt. That is when it comes back the other way.

It all starts today with the what I like to call the I-beam of bullshyt that is about to prop up the market.

[trobin31]

Anyone here have a position or an opinion on SOS? Did some research on it and seems like it could be the next MARa or RIOT. I had MARa for a long time (wish I hung in to it). But see a lot of upside for SOS. $4 now but that’s how MARa started out and was $30 before you knew it.

I put some SOS in my pocket around $1 & $3.9 recently....lotto ticket play I guess

[trobin31]

2021: Oil is Black Gold

[navyblue81]

SOS 4.4541 -0.1459 -3.1717% : SOS Limited - Yahoo Finance

????

More long term not short term. Did research on both sides and seems like a bit of a gamble. But it could skyrocket after July bc of crypto. Keeping an eye on it but not putting a lot of $$$ in yet. Just gonna wait and see where it’s at in a couple years. I wish I woulda kept my $$$ in MARa. Pulled out at $17 and was stupid.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK so the stage is set for the market to run here. I'm back in the UPRO, XLF, and some TQQQ. All probably until just before the weekend, then I can look at the monthly charts and see what happens next. I'm still holding a small amount of TZA which is the 3X leveraged short position of IWM, but that is a multi month play that I'm waiting to turn over.

[trobin31]

Market likes to be contrarian

[trobin31]

2021: Oil is Black Gold

Oil, why not get a rebate since you are going to be paying through the teeth at the pump?

Crude to 100, XLE 80, slap in some UCO calls on reversals, SLB 40

Oil, it’s the new solar!

[Enkhbat]

Do you guys think there was overreaction to LYFT, UBER etc stocks?

[Slurry Pumper]

Do you guys think there was overreaction to LYFT, UBER etc stocks?

I don't know if you look at the charts they are both in the same camp. Pretty range bound for a while now with a big drop yesterday from the top of the range to the bottom of the range. The volume spike is not good being a over the top amount as compared to the average daily volume. Good news is that they both bounced up and didn't finish on the lows. If there is a breakdown with a close below the ranges, LYFT will free fall to about the $48 level, and UBER will have more support levels on the way down although none of them are very strong so $45 is possible on a spike. I would give it a couple of days to see if there is any repair operation on the way or if things just start to fall apart. You'll know because the red lines on both charts will be breached.

[Iona]

[vivablu]

Found interesting on the other forum. Copying and pasting because I cashed with MVIS and this has potential. If you are into graphs, check ROOT, looks like a good play.:


Betting Resource, a handicapping service, now sends optional stock option plays as bonus and they have been money. They are bonus and there is no restrictions on weather clients can post them on boards or not so I will share a goody.

If any of you play stocks option, keep an eye on ROOT Jun 18'2021 $15 call. Betting Resource sends optional stock option plays for short term and long term position and this was one of the short term position advised to buy at 40 cents a contract. They are expecting this contract to gain at least 500% during earnings volatility in May. Since advised, it reached 95 cents a contract and now its around 55 cents. I think it is still worth the grab because they expect most profit to come in May. Since the expiry is not until Jun 18, its pretty safe play at this point. They hit with these types of plays really good during the pandemic lockdown and now they occasionally send few of these plays and they have been very good timely plays. Even if you don't play, keep an eye on this call option and see for yourself. If you missed MVIS $15 call for similar price, this is probably the next similar gains.

[KVB]

Sports markets and stock markets are similar in so many ways. I have developed strategies that track different types of the sports markets and posted many at SBR.

I'm just going to leave this most recent post here and while volume is not shown in the charts, it is taken into account in the analysis. For SBR posts, I have mostly hinted at lagging indicators but did tease several other metrics over the years.

I've been doing this for years and when COVID shut down the NBA I was in the midst of an Aggressive Trading Fund, all posted, that was up 35 units in 5 plays, man I was pissed because there was no way were giving back those units. Missed a 100 units run because of COVID last year.

For those interested...

On April 15th, market in yellow on the chart, I said this...

Can't say the loss wasn't due after 5 wins in a row for the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund Backbone. I think we enter a sideways market here with a possible slight retreat from the high. Hopefully I'm not talking about a negatve and bear market or entracted retreat in a couple of weeks...

Here we are a couple of weeks later and I'm saying this...

...And as I've been saying, we are still sideways but expecting a negative market here with the recent head and shoulders pattern.

Like I said days ago, we could lose -6 units on this run before finding support. Since then the market has appeared to have support at this top, staying sideways, but I would be very wary and sense at the very least some stepping downward if not a sudden crash...

Here's the chart. We are in a sell signal with the 10 and 20 SMA crossing, the 10 play SMA has acted as resistance with the plays, and we have finally dipped below the 50 play SMA.

So where's our support?...


...

[Goat Milk]

KVB please just make it simple and tell simpletons here like myself what to do. Tell me to buy something and I will.

[KVB]

All the plays that built that chart were posted and tracked here at SBR. I was definitely bullish on that run up and would have suggested buying the plays but now it's been time to pass. Unless we can get range bound, I can only caution following the plays.

It's not like the NBA though, you can't just fade the plays because of the prices, most of those plays are dogs.

So right now I've moved a lot out of that Fund, especially with that head and shoulders top and just make bare minimum plays.

Until we see some support or lack of a free fall, sadly I have no recommendation but to pass or buy with extreme caution here.

What would the chart readers in the thread do? We went from near inverse head and shoulders and it's subsequent run to a true head and shoulders. Line shopping is probably the only reason the top of the chart isn't tilting downward, to the left.