Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

After 2 pretty good down days, the SPY did bounce off of the 20 DMA yesterday and we are in wait and see mode as believe it or not, the trend is still your friend here. I think the Fed is coming out to speak or say something today so that should be fun to witness and that gold is finally starting to move after I've been loading up on it for the last 8 years at this point.
The QQQs are on the other hand in bigger trouble and if that doesn't hang on to the 20 DMA, it may drag down the markets with it so that is my indicator for the near future for direction. With that, that means NVDA is a look and see, $860 is the line in the sand for this stock. Below that and the selling could increase. Yesterday it bounced of a level of support made from the 3/8 big break down candle low which is a glimmer of hope that things will recover but it has some repairing to do before I think happy days are here again.

[Bostongambler]

LTNC up 193% today.

[Slurry Pumper]

Slurry, what are the charts indicating to you this week?

We're looking for the SPY to stay above the $523ish spot on the SPY, if it does, then things will continue as they have for quite a while now. Then we will also be looking at how the SPY does when it gets to $542.60, and finally if it breaks through that $530 is another level of resistance.

The QQQs have more work to do to repair the damage. $447 is the first spot it needs to take, then $449.35, and finally $457.25.

I'm looking for the markets to run up to these levels and then see what happens. Markets have been running pretty sideways for a few weeks now and the volume is slightly less than it was just a month ago. It like its waiting. For what maybe a rate cut or maybe another bad thing to happen before it reacts. My money is on the rate cut and a continuation up the mountain side, but I want to be the umpire so I will always look before I buy and stay right next to the exits. There are no long term positions being started for me altough I am piling in even heavier to the mining stocks that I have bee single handily supporting for the last 4 years now.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A record share of 401(k) account holders took early withdrawalsfrom their accounts last year for financial emergencies, according to internaldata from Vanguard Group. Overall, 3.6% of its plan participants did so lastyear, up from 2.8% in 2022 and a prepandemic average of about 2%.

Mad, that's good info. Another sign (IMHO) that the money supply has a problem.

How far can the USA stretch it?

[Madison]

Slurry, what are the charts indicating to you this week?

[Madison]

A record share of 401(k) account holders took early withdrawalsfrom their accounts last year for financial emergencies, according to internaldata from Vanguard Group. Overall, 3.6% of its plan participants did so lastyear, up from 2.8% in 2022 and a prepandemic average of about 2%.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Momentum is wonderful until it isn't.

Real vs Nominal coming home to roost IMHO.

[Madison]

The P/E ratio is insane. Has to be maxed out, right?

Momentum is wonderful until it isn't.

[Madison]

IonQ saw some unusual options trading activity on Thursday. Traders acquired 16,494 call options on the stock. This represents an increase of approximately 44% compared to the typical volume of 11,419 call options.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In his latest research report, Grantham focused on the extremely bullish sentiment of the U.S. stock market, underscored by the Shiller P/E Ratio — a key valuation measure for the S&P 500 — standing at 34 as of Mar. 1. This places it in the top 1% historically, a position Grantham views with caution due to the historical rarity of sustained market rallies from such a valuation.

The P/E ratio is insane. Has to be maxed out, right?

[Madison]

Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) will be releasing earnings on Friday, March 29, Yahoo Finance reports.

[Madison]

In his latest research report, Grantham focused on the extremely bullish sentiment of the U.S. stock market, underscored by the Shiller P/E Ratio — a key valuation measure for the S&P 500 — standing at 34 as of Mar. 1. This places it in the top 1% historically, a position Grantham views with caution due to the historical rarity of sustained market rallies from such a valuation.

[Slurry Pumper]

The SPY and QQQ are trying to stay in that rising wedge again today after a late day break down spells a little trouble ahead. So far today the futures are up at right about the scene of the crime yesterday ($521) when it broke down. Playing the referee, if the SPY can't start closing 10 minute candles above that $521 area during regular hours, I would be betting on the down side at least for the day. We'll see if the futures can keep the price up in this area or if it is given up before the open, then afterwards, I'll give it about 30 minutes to move further before just outright shorting. It may not take that long.
Then again the fight to stay in the wedge continues, so the markets may just take off and get out of the danger zone, but that is a less than 50% scenario.

[JIBBBY]

Trumps Truth Social stock jumping right now. Pump and then dump.. Free money right now!

[homie1975]

If you own SMCI, please use stops. Bollinger bands are a 20 period moving average and 2 standard deviations above and below the moving average. On the monthly chart, SMCI today was 3 standard deviations above its 20 month average, and 4 standard deviations above on its quarterly chart. That's just nuts.

yes agree JOSHer

[guitarjosh]

SMCI up another 10% today.

If you own SMCI, please use stops. Bollinger bands are a 20 period moving average and 2 standard deviations above and below the moving average. On the monthly chart, SMCI today was 3 standard deviations above its 20 month average, and 4 standard deviations above on its quarterly chart. That's just nuts.

[homie1975]

NVDA $1,000 soon? Quickly closing in on overtaking Apple market cap.

yuppers.

then it will meet resistance right around $1,025 i predict, close at $985 or so, then soon after break through $1,000 again and stay there :-)

[homie1975]

there is still room to run. remember that it provides the hardware to NVDA so they trade together basically.

SMCI up another 10% today.

[d2bets]

there is still room to run. remember that it provides the hardware to NVDA so they trade together basically.

NVDA $1,000 soon? Quickly closing in on overtaking Apple market cap.

[Slurry Pumper]

I did the same play on Friday and bought Puts right at the upper limit of the rising wedge again. It is working and we will see if the bottom of the wedge holds this time.

[homie1975]

I missed that one. Was hovering for months in the 200-300 range and a month later it was $900.

Funny, Every time I see CRWD I think of you bemoaning your current CB circa 2022. Hopefully you held onto that one.

BOL Bud!!

there is still room to run. remember that it provides the hardware to NVDA so they trade together basically.

[homie1975]

I missed that one. Was hovering for months in the 200-300 range and a month later it was $900.

Funny, Every time I see CRWD I think of you bemoaning your current CB circa 2022. Hopefully you held onto that one.

BOL Bud!!

i did !!!

[Madison]

i like SMCI the best right now

I missed that one. Was hovering for months in the 200-300 range and a month later it was $900.

Funny, Every time I see CRWD I think of you bemoaning your current CB circa 2022. Hopefully you held onto that one.

BOL Bud!!

[homie1975]

SOUN ... Talk about a roller coaster?? Riding along with you!!

i like SMCI the best right now

[Madison]

i gave everything I had.

i am constantly adding on dips and selling rips on numerous stocks like SMCI, SOUN, MARA, MSTR, etc etc etc

it would be impossible for me to share all of it in here.

i have always shared (especially back in 2022) when i made large moves on stocks like META which got pelted.

i hope some took advantage.

SOUN ... Talk about a roller coaster?? Riding along with you!!

[homie1975]

Love ya bud, but as moderator/author of this this thread you should assume the responsibility of offering more!!

i gave everything I had.

i am constantly adding on dips and selling rips on numerous stocks like SMCI, SOUN, MARA, MSTR, etc etc etc

it would be impossible for me to share all of it in here.

i have always shared (especially back in 2022) when i made large moves on stocks like META which got pelted.

i hope some took advantage.

[bjb7223]

it is very hard Not to be happy right now

Homie where are the college ball plays?

[Madison]

Love ya bud, but as moderator/author of this this thread you should assume the responsibility of offering more!!

[homie1975]

Everyone's happy. The party just continues on.

it is very hard Not to be happy right now

[homie1975]

[Slurry Pumper]

Yep I had to drop everything and get out of the way. I think the Fed is committed to trying to prop up the market here. Inflation should take off now at an accelerated rate. If and when he actually cuts will remain to be seen. I don't think he will actually do it this year but we will see.

[Madison]

Everyone's happy. The party just continues on.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the markets all moved up to that now infamous bottom boundary wedge line and was unable to stay above it for the last 2 days. Tomorrow is the big day. If the FED comes out and says Eff it, i'm gonna eventually drop rates sometime later this year even though I see inflation creeping back up, that might set the market ablaze with joy and buying. It would also set me off as for sure all that gold I've been packing away will move up as well. If they come out and even hint at the chance of a rate hike, I think we may see a little blood dripping in the streets. So he will probably come out talking outta both sides of his mouth and attempt to thread that needle. The last 2 days I've been loading up on the PUTS for both the QQQs and the SPY as I think the downward movement is more likely than a rally this time. We'll see how it goes, but the statement is uber important this time and allot hinges on what he says.

[Madison]

Posted many times in the past (decrease in the M2) and you have the inverse of the 3/10 and the decrease in the m2 money supply. On their own they have historical precedent for recession but together is a very ominous sign.

BOL my friend.

[Madison]

what J Powell says this week will affect Both stocks and bitcoin

Wait until he even makes the slightest hawkest comment?? The national deficit interest debt aside, he has a lot of pressure to maintain or lower rates for the good of the dollar. Don't under estimate the need to support the $ as the currency of choice.