Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Boy this doesn't feel good to me. One wrong geopolitical move and this could be a plunge??

I'm kind of waiting for the 1st good geopolitical decision to help us not get into more issues. It seems to me there have been a series of decisions the last couple of years that got us to this point and a good decision is sorely needed. A few more crappy moves and we'll be in a totally different world situation.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK sometimes things happen like I think they are going to happen and give an example of why I do certain things. Just this morning I posted to see if the price for SPY can get above yesterday's close and stay there for an hourly closing candle before I would go long. Well look below and you'll see why I state that on the 5 day chart with hourly closes. Looking at point 1 and 2 shows that the SPY went above yesterday's close not once but twice today. Each time it was unable to keep it there for an hourly close. Usually you only get 1 chance at it before it falls away, but today price really hung around for a while making a bull flag before they gave up and selling started. Yes I had to wait for both failures because it never really gain steam to the downside after the hourly closes. Eventually I jumped on the PUT train (choo choo) and rode that down to the bank to cash in. At the end of the day, I did take some profits but I kind of expect this ride to continue to start tomorrow to the $510 area, or even maybe a gap down below that for a Ka-ching moment so I still have a half a position going.

[Madison]

Boy this doesn't feel good to me. One wrong geopolitical move and this could be a plunge??

[Slurry Pumper]

I'm posting my plays, and the SPY top out yesterday 2 bucks where I thought it would which isn't that bad when you consider it started at $510. That's old news already how about today's trading action? Well its all about the high from yesterday in the SPY $529.75, right now the futures market is making a run for that level and after the opening, if the price can't make it above yesterday's high and close on an hourly basis above that, I'll be buying a ticket on the PUT train to expire on Friday. I think at least a visit to the $510ish spot is on the docket sometime in the near future.

How about if the SPY is able to eclipse the $529.75 area? Then $536.50 would be the next stop on the bullish train and maybe even $538 before the end of the week, and I'll be on that train as well if that happens, but a more jumpy get off the train vibe for me on the way up.
All options I'm getting expire on Friday, but I reserve the right to jump off that train at any time with the increased volatility going either direction if the trade winds tell me to do so.
I'm more in the camp that we get a nice gap and crap today, but that is just a feeling. As usual I will let the chart dictate my actions.

[Slurry Pumper]

The QQQ was caught in woman's land for me, so no trade.

A Freudian slip or a Slurrism?

A mis spelling actually supposed to be no mans land, which I guess could be called womans land now a days.

[guitarjosh]

The VIX got way overbought so we're going to see a bounce. The big question is if the bounce will stall out at around 50% retracement of the move down. If it does, we could be looking at a fall and winter of carnage.

[homie1975]

I ain't going NOWHERE

[Madison]

All's good. No problems!!!

[Madison]

Volitivity = Opportunity. Please post your opps. I'll offer FLNC, and MBLY as mine.

[Madison]

The QQQ was caught in woman's land for me, so no trade.

A Freudian slip or a Slurrism?

[Madison]

I get a TON of these, most meaningless. This one is worth noting!!!

This one is a proxy of Intel and may have suffered from Intel's plummeting.

Mobileye Global Inc. (NASDAQ:MBLY - Get Free Report) CEO Amnon Shashua bought 631,963 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, August 2nd. The stock was purchased at an average cost of $16.51 per share, for a total transaction of $10,433,709.13. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer now directly owns 4,080,097 shares in the company, valued at approximately $67,362,401.47. The acquisition was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through the SEC website.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the SPY started the day at $510,and I did buy some calls. Not a bad rise, but I still think the $527 is the goal so I hung onto the small position over night, which is a risk in itself these days that must be thought of with heightened awareness. The QQQ was caught in woman's land for me, so no trade.

[k13]

2% is bloody monday now...
What a joke.

Bring on 20% and that's still too little in this trash market.

[homie1975]

Look up "Carry Trade" Japan.

[Slurry Pumper]

Its not that bad yet. On the SPY l like $509 for a temporary spot of interest, and below that $500 is a better spot if the markets get there. I think the markets rally here actually and the goal for the rescue operation today is $527. Right at this moment the $516.50 spot is another level of support the SPY can try to hang its hat on. As the morning progresses, I suspect the futures will start to rise, and by the end of the day the $527 area will be in their sights.

The QQQs I like the $413.50 spot as a good spot for an entry today if it gets there. Right now the futures are resting at another support area of $429ish, the rescue goal for today is $455.

So that's my outlook for trading today, heavy selling the last couple of days has me thinking we get a counter trade and a nice pop. These are all scalp or day trades as I do suspect more selling to come it really hasn't gotten that bad yet.

[homie1975]

Monday Bloody Monday..................the U2 song should say Monday not Sunday.

[Madison]

Small Caps UP 10% and then DOWN 10% in circa 10 days. Not healthy.

[homie1975]

panic selling not a strategy !!

hold hold hold !!!

[Madison]

Hummm, pretty ugly.

[Slurry Pumper]

Rip your face off rally today.

It's a ka-ching sort of day.

[d2bets]

Rip your face off rally today.

[Bostongambler]

Been following LTNC on the pink sheets for sometime now. Lock’din hydrogen infused water is their calling.

Big announcement coming in next 10-14 days. 😬

[Slurry Pumper]

Well, I'm in the camp of things getting better by the end of the week so I did pick up some calls yesterday with SPY at $539 strike and the QQQ at $456. They haven't moved that much yet, but I think the FED marches out to ease fears today and its back to the races going into the end of the week. Overall, I am in the everything falls apart camp, but when that happens who knows. Underlying forces keep getting worse, but the bad news hasn't translated into bad events just yet.

[Madison]

Nothing to look at here.... Inflation I suppose???

As of the closing bell on July 26, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio -- also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (Cape ratio) -- stood at north of 35, which is more than double its average of 17.14, when back-tested to 1871.
More importantly, there have been six occasions in 153 years where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E surpassed 30 during a bull market rally. All five previous instances were eventually followed by declines of 20% to 89% in the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, or Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Slurry ... lock and load put options next 3 months???

[Madison]

Nothing to look at here.... Inflation I suppose???

As of the closing bell on July 26, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio -- also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (Cape ratio) -- stood at north of 35, which is more than double its average of 17.14, when back-tested to 1871.
More importantly, there have been six occasions in 153 years where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E surpassed 30 during a bull market rally. All five previous instances were eventually followed by declines of 20% to 89% in the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, or Dow Jones Industrial Average.

[Slurry Pumper]

GDX reach my second target and then some, so I picked up some of that at $36, but AU and SLV are in no mans land so I held off with those trades. This week I think we get a rebound overall in the markets so I'm looking for spots to jump aboard the QQQ and SPY weekly options train this morning on a continuation. Had I been on the ball, Thursday the SPY hit some good support at the $537 spot and bounce off of that pretty well. If we find the price down there again however that would be the line in the sand and closing hourly candles below that could spell trouble.

[Madison]

All's good. No worries.

[Slurry Pumper]

Didn't really get a chance to pick up anything yesterday as the markets are in meltdown mode. Then this morning gold is dumping pretty hard. If I'm honest it looks like a bigger market event is starting here.

[Madison]

[Slurry Pumper]

OK this morning I'm going to pick up some more mining stocks like the GDX and AU. Both are hanging out at a support level. I already own shyt loads of these from years ago at this point, so I'm not too worried if they break through and go lower. If GDX does, the next spot I like is $36.30. Currently it is $37.45.
AU on the other hand is at $28.07, and if it falls, it's a load em up type buy for me at $26.00.
How about SLV? We'll it's been beat down the last week or so and is also right on some pretty good support of $26.50ish. Currently ($26.68) is close enough for me to load em up here. If it falters I'll really load up at $24.25 if it gets there as my silver stack is lacking with relation to my gold stack. This also means that I will start buying the real stuff as well as long as those premiums aren't redonkulous. The last few years premiums have kept me from stacking physical Silver, but now I'm willing to start paying more of a tax to have it laying around.

[Slurry Pumper]

Looks like that gold miners pullback is happening and of course the same can be said for gold. I think there is a little more downside to come, but it getting ready for load up time here pretty soon.

[Slurry Pumper]

Does anyone know anything about "Tobin's Q"?.

Pretty interesting valuation method? Somewhat foreboding?

Thanks for the heads up, I'll have to look into this.


It seems like the SPY is in melt up mode while the Nasdaq is making a bearish flag and looks ready to break down. Then there is the IWM which is in full on blow off top mode. Add it up and I think these are not the time to be jumping in with the long term buying of anything other than the precious metal sector, and even that will probably see a pull back in the fairly near future. The news from the bond market is telling me to be right near the exit and to keep an ever-watchful eye on any asset I got. Things do have that look like it can totally fall apart at any minute. I really think we dodged a proverbial bullet last Saturday with the assassination attempt not being completed for a catalyst, but that doesn't mean there wont be another catalyst event on the horizon.

[Madison]

Does anyone know anything about "Tobin's Q"?.

Pretty interesting valuation method? Somewhat foreboding?

[Slurry Pumper]

Look at AGI & WPM. I don't own any but I'm looking for a pull back to get in.

Yeah, gold miners should be on the move and the last week or so looks like they have popped a little. I hope it continues, but it is the type of thing where you needed to be in these already. I'm still buying however on pullbacks if and when they come.

[guitarjosh]

Finally had some downward movement yesterday, today I think we kind of hang on and creep one way or the other. Meanwhile all that gold I have been collecting for the last 10 years is starting to move although the mining stocks haven't been in favor. I gotta believe that the earnings from the miners are going to be blow out type numbers and they should be noticed sooner or later while gold hangs out at all time highs.

Look at AGI & WPM. I don't own any but I'm looking for a pull back to get in.