Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

The man of everlasting faith/confidence. LOL. BOL.

[homie1975]

and.....

POWL
TDW
WSM

[homie1975]

Fslr

[Madison]

S&P 500 index funds saw the biggest outflows on record last week, according to data from Lipper’s global fund flows.
In the week ending June 12, S&P 500 exchange-traded funds saw outflows of $17.4 billion, even as the index advanced by 1.25% over that same time frame.
More broadly, exchange-traded equity funds saw $14.7 billion in outflows, the largest weekly outflow since the week ending Dec. 12, 2021.

May have been me making my sell play. LOL

[homie1975]

JOSHer any new plays you are watching or recently invested in?

I opened recent positions in:

CB
BMA
GPS
BCO
AER
AZN

[veriableodds]

In short, it's all age and net worth dependent. I'm fortunate enough to be +2 or 3k every month with SS and investments.

For those approaching retirement, and possibly everyone, what I did 5 years or so ago was create a simple spreadsheet with about 20 or 30 categories, with fixed and variable for expenses and income. Best thing I did as now I know pretty much where every dollar is coming and going monthly.

Best to all!

Market is all age based. Movement is death unless you risk small and can understand true, I mean real true trends and ride those out till a reverse. (that involves far less movement) Options are juice on steroids never going to get far. Day trading and all that bunk are sucker wagers. Only movement I do is withdraw the passive income and put some back every month. Thats why I don't participate much in these type topics. I have been the same for like 12 years+ no need for restructure.

[Madison]

In short, it's all age and net worth dependent. I'm fortunate enough to be +2 or 3k every month with SS and investments.

For those approaching retirement, and possibly everyone, what I did 5 years or so ago was create a simple spreadsheet with about 20 or 30 categories, with fixed and variable for expenses and income. Best thing I did as now I know pretty much where every dollar is coming and going monthly.

Best to all!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sounds like me. 50% fixed income like swvxx, and short-term cd's. If I see a future fed rate cut coming, then I will ladder away all the way out to ten years. 30% sp500 like in the x's spider etf's (xlb, xlf, xle, xlre ect.. way better than a general market boggle head like, vti, vt, voo) 10% commodity (gold, silver, oil, copper, ect) the ones that pay high monthly dividends like credit Suisse. 10% super high monthly dividend payers like (oxlc, ymax, svol, tltw ect ect..) mostly bonds. Not only can I preserve capital but produce more income than I will ever spend. Most months I reinvest up to 25% of the dividends back into money market

Veri, I think this is smart. Inflation trends are undeniable now.

One needs to strive for a Return on their $$. USD is de-basing. Need to stay ahead of inflation.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I do likewise. Maybe checkout "Market Beat" as they have 3 month momentum chart for your holdings. So tired of Zacks, Chucky recommended guy offering COPX after it's up 50% etc. Latest was someone suggesting TER recently. What a genius, it's up 50% in 6 weeks.

I happen to like "Invester Place" Luke Longo, Navelier, etc. They can certainly be wrong but at least they try to get you in early to positions.

All my best!

I view SCCO/COPX as very good stabilizer stocks. Should go up slowly. Hard for me to see these going down much.

[veriableodds]

Full Disclosure: I have lost $$ the last month or so while the market hovers at all-time highs. In the interest of "Preservation of Capital" I am selling a bunch of my holdings, and I am now 95% fixed income.

Sounds like me. 50% fixed income like swvxx, and short-term cd's. If I see a future fed rate cut coming, then I will ladder away all the way out to ten years. 30% sp500 like in the x's spider etf's (xlb, xlf, xle, xlre ect.. way better than a general market boggle head like, vti, vt, voo) 10% commodity (gold, silver, oil, copper, ect) the ones that pay high monthly dividends like credit Suisse. 10% super high monthly dividend payers like (oxlc, ymax, svol, tltw ect ect..) mostly bonds. Not only can I preserve capital but produce more income than I will ever spend. Most months I reinvest up to 25% of the dividends back into money market

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Full Disclosure: I have lost $$ the last month or so while the market hovers at all-time highs. In the interest of "Preservation of Capital" I am selling a bunch of my holdings, and I am now 95% fixed income.

Madison, Good Luck. Not sure I like that.

95% seems too high. Fiat de-basement in play. What about Metals?

[Madison]

Full Disclosure: I have lost $$ the last month or so while the market hovers at all-time highs. In the interest of "Preservation of Capital" I am selling a bunch of my holdings, and I am now 95% fixed income.

[homie1975]

today on dips i added more to these positions i already hold:

VST
VRT
MOD
CAVA

these stocks have been very good to me on paper the past several mos so i do not mind
nibbling a bit more on these pullbacks even though I am raising my cost base slightly

so,
here is where i have changed in the last 6 years: (lessons learned the hard way)

- i will sell laggards and slow movers. i hate seeing money stagnant or dropping for any extended period of time. i am no longer a pure "buy and hold" guy. i do not get married to any stock or company anymore.

- i not only buy on dips, i also buy on rises if the skies appear to be clear and sunny for the foreseeable future.

- i do not necessarily buy any good company that gets crushed on earnings and/or guidance and appears to be "on sale". i find it can take more than 2 quarters and sometimes years to get them back on good footing. that is too long for me.

- i do not avoid a stock just because it is at all time highs. as roy bacon taught me, if you backtest it, new highs beget more new highs. momentum is a real thing in stocks.

[Madison]

i'm not very good in this space at timing.

in fintech i have not done well on Block, PayPayl, nor Affirm.

did okay on Upstart.

I always seem to get drawn to fintech names but they scare me a bit like biotech and pharma stocks, because while they can really go up, the majority seem to really thank.

i don't know.

stocks wise, Today i bought GPS and BMA

I do think SOFI is worth a small dip.

[Madison]

i'm not very good in this space at timing.

in fintech i have not done well on Block, PayPayl, nor Affirm.

did okay on Upstart.

I always seem to get drawn to fintech names but they scare me a bit like biotech and pharma stocks, because while they can really go up, the majority seem to really thank.

i don't know.

stocks wise, Today i bought GPS and BMA

I don't do BIO. I've dabbled in XBI but the whole area is to volatile for me.

Right now I have a ton in fixed income (5%) , just not seeing a lot of upside to dip my other 20%.

BOL Bud!!

[d2bets]

NVDA just never ends. Less than $1T to $3T in less than 7 months. 10:1 split after the close on Friday. Never been anything quit like that.

[homie1975]

You've got me by 20 years, but a significant 20. Where are you on Fintech banking? I do keep in contact with the younger gens. I have a good bit in SOFI at a reasonable CB. Wondering what you think about this one??

i'm not very good in this space at timing.

in fintech i have not done well on Block, PayPayl, nor Affirm.

did okay on Upstart.

I always seem to get drawn to fintech names but they scare me a bit like biotech and pharma stocks, because while they can really go up, the majority seem to really thank.

i don't know.

stocks wise, Today i bought GPS and BMA

[Madison]

my method is not very complicated nor scientific.

when i have time (it is not every day nor every week) i watch the ticker symbols scroll at bottom of screen on CNBC.

i take note of all the symbols i do not already know.

i look them up to find out the nature of their business.

i look up their charts from 1 month all the way back to 1Y and 5Y.

if i like what i see over the last 6 mos to 1Y, i nibble.

rinse and repeat.

yes, it ends up being 150 stocks with nibbles, but the aggregate is a good thing!

if they retreat for any reason other than bad earnings or bad guidance (so a retreat due to a larger pullback in the market), i add a tiny bit more to my initial nibble.

i check the list every quarter. i sell the laggards and hold on to the winners.

You've got me by 20 years, but a significant 20. Where are you on Fintech banking? I do keep in contact with the younger gens. I have a good bit in SOFI at a reasonable CB. Wondering what you think about this one??

[Madison]

I do likewise. Maybe checkout "Market Beat" as they have 3 month momentum chart for your holdings. So tired of Zacks, Chucky recommended guy offering COPX after it's up 50% etc. Latest was someone suggesting TER recently. What a genius, it's up 50% in 6 weeks.

I happen to like "Invester Place" Luke Longo, Navelier, etc. They can certainly be wrong but at least they try to get you in early to positions.

All my best!

[homie1975]

An area I certainly could be more adept at and would love to learn more "Momentum Investing".

The market is a curious thing, but one thing you can be sure momentum in either direction is a powerful thing.

BOL Bud.

my method is not very complicated nor scientific.

when i have time (it is not every day nor every week) i watch the ticker symbols scroll at bottom of screen on CNBC.

i take note of all the symbols i do not already know.

i look them up to find out the nature of their business.

i look up their charts from 1 month all the way back to 1Y and 5Y.

if i like what i see over the last 6 mos to 1Y, i nibble.

rinse and repeat.

yes, it ends up being 150 stocks with nibbles, but the aggregate is a good thing!

if they retreat for any reason other than bad earnings or bad guidance (so a retreat due to a larger pullback in the market), i add a tiny bit more to my initial nibble.

i check the list every quarter. i sell the laggards and hold on to the winners.

[Madison]

Not sure I disclosed but I got out of a majority of TER (recommended a few months circa 95) circa 143. Under the premise "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit". On the downside I sold a large chunk of NVDA last year around 400, so I guess you have to be ready to swallow hard sometimes. Made a huge profit but still doesn't dull the pain of watching it at 1000.

[Madison]

i've owned SMCI since 2023! i may have bought more recently but it certainly was not my opening position !!

nowadays i sell laggards. MCD, BA, UNH, TWLO, WDAY, etc etc.

i sold them because they were not moving fast enough for me, to the upside.

i put the money in stocks at or near ATH's,.

i learned from Roy Bacon: stocks at all time highs tend to beget more ATH's.

live and learn !!!

An area I certainly could be more adept at and would love to learn more "Momentum Investing".

The market is a curious thing, but one thing you can be sure momentum in either direction is a powerful thing.

BOL Bud.

[homie1975]

Homie ... You are a well documented buy and holder. Over the years you have also expressed your dislike for buying ATH's. A month or so ago you bought SMCI at or near ATH's which caught my attention (surprised me). I'm curious of your thoughts since the stock has taken a bit of a hit and I think you very well might be under water. Do you stick with your convictions as you did with CRWD?

Just trying to learn here bud, from someone a lot less patient than you.

Best!!

i've owned SMCI since 2023! i may have bought more recently but it certainly was not my opening position !!

nowadays i sell laggards. MCD, BA, UNH, TWLO, WDAY, etc etc.

i sold them because they were not moving fast enough for me, to the upside.

i put the money in stocks at or near ATH's,.

i learned from Roy Bacon: stocks at all time highs tend to beget more ATH's.

live and learn !!!

[Madison]

Today I bought AER, BCO per your recommendation.

I also added AZN. Their lung cancer drug has done really well in trials.

Another one to watch: VIK

Ones that might be rebounding here:

SE
RIVN
SBUX
UNH
QS
NKE

Homie ... You are a well documented buy and holder. Over the years you have also expressed your dislike for buying ATH's. A month or so ago you bought SMCI at or near ATH's which caught my attention (surprised me). I'm curious of your thoughts since the stock has taken a bit of a hit and I think you very well might be under water. Do you stick with your convictions as you did with CRWD?

Just trying to learn here bud, from someone a lot less patient than you.

Best!!

[Madison]

FLNC is one you all need to be watching at a minimum. Buy under 18 or so, sell? over 25. I've been here for several years and doing quite well. Have actually built a pretty significant (for me) CB circa 17. This is the future!!

[Madison]

Today I bought AER, BCO per your recommendation.

I also added AZN. Their lung cancer drug has done really well in trials.

Another one to watch: VIK

Ones that might be rebounding here:

SE
RIVN
SBUX
UNH
QS
NKE

UNH has seemingly strong support 470-480 (Buy). Seems to be ceiling circa 530 recently. I'm actively adding/reducing as such.

[homie1975]

AER, BCO, & LLY are good companies but I'd be careful, they're a bit overbought. I don't own them and haven't put anyone in them.

Today I bought AER, BCO per your recommendation.

I also added AZN. Their lung cancer drug has done really well in trials.

Another one to watch: VIK

Ones that might be rebounding here:

SE
RIVN
SBUX
UNH
QS
NKE

[Madison]

Total household debt rose by $184 billion to reach a staggering
$17.69 trillion by the end of Q1 2024. Critically, the New York Fed reportedthat almost 9% of credit card balances and 8% of auto loans (annualized) hadtransitioned into delinquency, with rising numbers across all age group.

[homie1975]

AER, BCO, & LLY are good companies but I'd be careful, they're a bit overbought. I don't own them and haven't put anyone in them.

I do not own AER nor BCO but I do own LLY and it has been very good to me.

It makes up for the hurt and then some on the PLUG, ZOOM and RIVN losses I took

I have added AER and BCO to my watchlist.

Thank you Sir and Good Health.

[guitarjosh]

JOSHer
your list is doing tremendous in aggregate. only a few laggards who are barely down.
most way up.

any changes to the list? additions or deletions ?

AER, BCO, & LLY are good companies but I'd be careful, they're a bit overbought. I don't own them and haven't put anyone in them.

[homie1975]

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

JOSHer
your list is doing tremendous in aggregate. only a few laggards who are barely down.
most way up.

any changes to the list? additions or deletions ?

[Art Vandelay]

Guys, quick question on Nvidia - 10/1 stock split coming on June 7th - Buy now or wait?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Transports tanked today primarily due to American Airlines changing their profit forecasts, but rails and trucks were again down over 1%.

I think the market is getting a bit technically oversold, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 3%-5% bounce by late June, but transports are telling a very scary story.

Seems like Funny Money nowadays, josh. Inflation way too much.

Props on your posts. Appreciate the education.

[guitarjosh]

Things look very tenuous indeed. Transports well below weekly 50MA

Transports tanked today primarily due to American Airlines changing their profit forecasts, but rails and trucks were again down over 1%.

I think the market is getting a bit technically oversold, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 3%-5% bounce by late June, but transports are telling a very scary story.

[trobin31]

All, Nvdia aside please take caution, The underlaying Russell and elsewhere are portraying storm clouds on the horizon.

Things look very tenuous indeed. Transports well below weekly 50MA