Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Looks like that gold miners pullback is happening and of course the same can be said for gold. I think there is a little more downside to come, but it getting ready for load up time here pretty soon.

[Slurry Pumper]

Does anyone know anything about "Tobin's Q"?.

Pretty interesting valuation method? Somewhat foreboding?

Thanks for the heads up, I'll have to look into this.


It seems like the SPY is in melt up mode while the Nasdaq is making a bearish flag and looks ready to break down. Then there is the IWM which is in full on blow off top mode. Add it up and I think these are not the time to be jumping in with the long term buying of anything other than the precious metal sector, and even that will probably see a pull back in the fairly near future. The news from the bond market is telling me to be right near the exit and to keep an ever-watchful eye on any asset I got. Things do have that look like it can totally fall apart at any minute. I really think we dodged a proverbial bullet last Saturday with the assassination attempt not being completed for a catalyst, but that doesn't mean there wont be another catalyst event on the horizon.

[Madison]

Does anyone know anything about "Tobin's Q"?.

Pretty interesting valuation method? Somewhat foreboding?

[Slurry Pumper]

Look at AGI & WPM. I don't own any but I'm looking for a pull back to get in.

Yeah, gold miners should be on the move and the last week or so looks like they have popped a little. I hope it continues, but it is the type of thing where you needed to be in these already. I'm still buying however on pullbacks if and when they come.

[guitarjosh]

Finally had some downward movement yesterday, today I think we kind of hang on and creep one way or the other. Meanwhile all that gold I have been collecting for the last 10 years is starting to move although the mining stocks haven't been in favor. I gotta believe that the earnings from the miners are going to be blow out type numbers and they should be noticed sooner or later while gold hangs out at all time highs.

Look at AGI & WPM. I don't own any but I'm looking for a pull back to get in.

[Slurry Pumper]

Finally had some downward movement yesterday, today I think we kind of hang on and creep one way or the other. Meanwhile all that gold I have been collecting for the last 10 years is starting to move although the mining stocks haven't been in favor. I gotta believe that the earnings from the miners are going to be blow out type numbers and they should be noticed sooner or later while gold hangs out at all time highs.

[Madison]

I feel it somewhat humorous that we have endless folks willing to bet thousands on the bounce of a basketball or random 3 and few of us willing to play the whims of the stock market.

FWIW I bought the downdraft in ALB to 90 last night and cashed some at 96 today.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK I got a couple of toe dabs into the SPY Puts and we'll keep it that way until there is some movement here. Markets keep inching higher under more and more strain. My to plays this week amount to maybe a nice lunch out with the wife so I ain't gonna sweat it if it doesn't happen.

[Slurry Pumper]

This morning the SPY is hanging out at the high from yesterday. I took a little toe dab in the PUT water right at the $556 area. If the price can't get past this spot in the early going today I'll stick another toe in the PUT waters with expiration on Friday. Our friend the FED comes out this morning to blow smoke up our collective ass and tell us how breezy it is so keep an eye out for that, then tomorrow we have inflation data starting to roll out so we'll have plenty of catalyst material for market movement

[Madison]

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. When we last left, I was buying SPY callas for expiration of last Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, and even today. They're all winners and depending on the early action for today, I'll be unloading the rest of the calls for another holiday rally situation. Charts are telling me however that a pullback is on the docket this week. Any pop this morning will be met with a little toe dipping of Puts for a Friday expiration. Until the SPY gets below $550 there is no excitement to be had, but below that on hourly closes will tempt me to increase my bet size.

Nice call!

[Slurry Pumper]

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. When we last left, I was buying SPY callas for expiration of last Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, and even today. They're all winners and depending on the early action for today, I'll be unloading the rest of the calls for another holiday rally situation. Charts are telling me however that a pullback is on the docket this week. Any pop this morning will be met with a little toe dipping of Puts for a Friday expiration. Until the SPY gets below $550 there is no excitement to be had, but below that on hourly closes will tempt me to increase my bet size.

[Slurry Pumper]

A little bit of a pullback in the premarket might give me a spot to enter the SPY this morning as the price is $543.25ish as I type this at 6:30. Low of day yesterday was $542..52 so if at the open we find the price still hanging out there I'll be jumping on board with those call options that expire today tomorrow, Friday and Monday. Below $542, the next level for my interest is $541, then below that I'm looking at the line in the sand spot $539.50. Looking for that holiday rally into and through the weekend.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK going into the holiday, markets are usually in rally mode and with all the crap circling around I don't see why this holiday would be different.

[homie1975]

LTNC

Lock’din hydrogen water. Taking a flyer. To the moon Alice!

big move today.

best of luck.

[Bostongambler]

LTNC

Lock’din hydrogen water. Taking a flyer. To the moon Alice!

[homie1975]

D2er check in Pal

[Madison]

Man I'm just not excited about putting money to work right now in either direction. Anyone feel the same? I see storm clouds ahead but things aren't falling apart yet, and any play for me at this point is strictly in and out the same day.

Mostly on the sidelines here with ammunition earning 5% or more.

I did dip back into ALB. Way oversold in my opinion. Lot of solid companies slowly bleeding. What does Lowes, Home Depot, and BLDR Builders First Resource (They supply) HD and LO slowly bleeding tell?? I did also buy some SQQQ as a hedge a few weeks ago.

Sitting on hands. Bored. Not wishing for a correction but???

[Slurry Pumper]

Man I'm just not excited about putting money to work right now in either direction. Anyone feel the same? I see storm clouds ahead but things aren't falling apart yet, and any play for me at this point is strictly in and out the same day.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well its good to see my tin foil hat still works. Yesterday we jumped up in the morning only to trail off the rest of the day. This morning will the SPY bounce off of yesterday's low of $545.18? Futures show the market is right there now in the early morning. We'll see how it goes as the opening comes closer, but the longer we hang out right here at $545.50 - $545.00, the more I like the stepping in for some calls that expire later today for a quick lunch money trade. Of course if the 10 minute candle closes start to get below $545, then it is time to cut and run or better yet buy Puts and wait for the $540 level to be reached.

[Slurry Pumper]

I just got back so I haven't had a chance to do a deep dive into the market forces just yet, but it does seem frothy to me. Then again and especially during the summer, markets can continue to claw its way up the charts on any news for any reason. Tomorrow we have our summer solstice which is a tin foil hat event for me where I believe the market can change direction just because. We'll see what happens.

[Madison]

NAS/SP keep climbing higher. Personally my portfolio is down 18 of the last 21 days. Very concerning to me. Lithium and small caps a large contributor. Can't wait for the correction. I'll be hitting up Chucky for wheat penny donations if this keeps up.

[Madison]

You need to take time to get away from the modern world and take notice of the natural world. It's brutal but it recenter you.
Anyway, looks like the markets are doing the same melting up operation as they were doing before I left. I hesitate to buy up here for the long term but since I mostly day and swing trade, I think the data today on retail sales will be mixed and thus a no trade for me today unless the SPY revisits the $546.50ish area.

Welcome Back! If I were 20 years healthier I would have gone with ya.

[Slurry Pumper]

You need to take time to get away from the modern world and take notice of the natural world. It's brutal but it recenter you.
Anyway, looks like the markets are doing the same melting up operation as they were doing before I left. I hesitate to buy up here for the long term but since I mostly day and swing trade, I think the data today on retail sales will be mixed and thus a no trade for me today unless the SPY revisits the $546.50ish area.

[homie1975]

Hell Yeah SLURRY !!!

[Poker_Beast]

Welcome back Slurry. Wondered what the hell happened to you.

[Slurry Pumper]

I'm back SBR, I hope you didn't miss me too much. I spent the last couple of months marching around the Appalachian trail completely off the grid just hanging out with the wild, I need about 3 days to figure out what is going on the in markets but just wanted to say I'm back and ready to trade. I'd like to thank my kids wife Mrs. Little Slurry Pumper for keeping the bidness together in my absence as I know her husband is a complete idiot and wouldn't be up to the task.

[Madison]

I think we bounce a little here, especially the small caps and mid caps. I still have a lot of concern about the economy. Transportation relative to the S&P 500 is at its lowest level since the bottom of the Covid shutdown. Railroad and trucking companies are falling off a cliff. Jobless claims are at their highest levels since last year and are close to being at their highest levels since 2021. Multiple recession indicators that use the unemployment rate are triggering. The most famous, the Sahm Rule hasn't triggered yet since it's only at .37, not .5. The thing is that since the early 50s, .37 has the same track record calling recessions as .5. You just find out you're in a recession 1-2 months on average before .5.

Always appreciated!!

[homie1975]

^^^ JOSHer when things eased last year at the start of 2023 and they continued throughout the year after the GAWD-awful 2022, many companies especially in Tech overhired IMO and a lot of those companies and positions are under stress so yes I see layoffs coming real soon.

[guitarjosh]

I think we bounce a little here, especially the small caps and mid caps. I still have a lot of concern about the economy. Transportation relative to the S&P 500 is at its lowest level since the bottom of the Covid shutdown. Railroad and trucking companies are falling off a cliff. Jobless claims are at their highest levels since last year and are close to being at their highest levels since 2021. Multiple recession indicators that use the unemployment rate are triggering. The most famous, the Sahm Rule hasn't triggered yet since it's only at .37, not .5. The thing is that since the early 50s, .37 has the same track record calling recessions as .5. You just find out you're in a recession 1-2 months on average before .5.

[homie1975]

A very well written objective article worth your time.

The Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed 30 six times in 153 years, and the previous five instances were all associated with pullbacks in the S&P 500, Dow, or Nasdaq Composite ranging from 20% to as much as 89%. Based on what history has told us about extended valuations, a meaningful move lower -- and perhaps even a short-lived "crash" -- may await.

Is the Stock Market Going to Crash? 153 Years of Valuation History Weighs In and Provides a Big Clue. (msn.com)

yes but diametrically opposed to what is written above in the other article?

fair to say that modern day PE's should be considered less than PEG ratio's due to the overall growth multiple that has supercharged stocks the last 25 years?

[Madison]

A very well written objective article worth your time.

The Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed 30 six times in 153 years, and the previous five instances were all associated with pullbacks in the S&P 500, Dow, or Nasdaq Composite ranging from 20% to as much as 89%. Based on what history has told us about extended valuations, a meaningful move lower -- and perhaps even a short-lived "crash" -- may await.

Is the Stock Market Going to Crash? 153 Years of Valuation History Weighs In and Provides a Big Clue. (msn.com)

[homie1975]

Courtesy of Zacks:

Even though we are in the midst of a strong bull market, which has seen aseries of new highs after new highs this year, the market prior to that hadgone 24 long months without setting a new high even once.
And it was only in January of this year that we finally eclipsed theprevious all-time highs from January 2022.
I point this out because history shows in the previous 14 times when theS&P has gone at least a full year without a new high, and then finally madeone - a year later it was higher in 13 out of those 14 times, and up nearly 15%on average.
Another interesting statistic, which points back to the big gains we saw inNovember of last year, bodes well for more gains to come this year.
Once again, history shows that when the S&P was up by more than 8% in asingle month (November 2023 was up by 8.91%), (this has happened 30 times since1950), a year later the index was higher in 27 out of those 30 times (that's90% of the time), with an average return of 15.8%.
Pretty compelling stats.
It also sets a bullish tone for all of the other factors working in themarket's favor this year.

this is exactly what RoyBacon said in here circa 2018.

if you backtest it, you will see New Highs beget more Highs. trying to time it is a fool's errand.

[homie1975]

The man of everlasting faith/confidence. LOL. BOL.

if they dip i will simply hold or buy more, simple as that.

i will check again after 2 quarters. if they are laggards I will sell and rotate into something better.

rinse and repeat.

[Madison]

The Arabs just sold xxMil shares to dump stock from 7-6.45.

Here's the guy (owner) I've been promoting:

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:SOFI - Get Free Report) CEO Anthony Noto acquired 30,715 shares of the company's stock in a transaction on Friday, June 14th. The stock was bought at an average cost of $6.48 per share, with a total value of $199,033.20. Following the completion of the acquisition, the chief executive officer now directly owns 8,121,844 shares in the company, valued at $52,629,549.12.

You go figure it out!!!

[Madison]

Courtesy of Zacks:

Even though we are in the midst of a strong bull market, which has seen aseries of new highs after new highs this year, the market prior to that hadgone 24 long months without setting a new high even once.
And it was only in January of this year that we finally eclipsed theprevious all-time highs from January 2022.
I point this out because history shows in the previous 14 times when theS&P has gone at least a full year without a new high, and then finally madeone - a year later it was higher in 13 out of those 14 times, and up nearly 15%on average.
Another interesting statistic, which points back to the big gains we saw inNovember of last year, bodes well for more gains to come this year.
Once again, history shows that when the S&P was up by more than 8% in asingle month (November 2023 was up by 8.91%), (this has happened 30 times since1950), a year later the index was higher in 27 out of those 30 times (that's90% of the time), with an average return of 15.8%.
Pretty compelling stats.
It also sets a bullish tone for all of the other factors working in themarket's favor this year.