Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

Hodl

[Madison]

IF teh markets go crazy soon so too will NVDA shit the bedpan. It might be put option time?

wadda you say boys ?

I've been toying with SQQQ for a while unsuccessfully. Pretty much agree. A lot (and there are many) of the underpinnings have SHT the proverbial bed but the major averages are somehow supportive. Look at a stock like UNH which I begged people to buy at $480, COST, etc. Very interesting times.

Haven't heard back from our leader regarding the SMCI's of the world, once 1K now teetering on $400. I posted earlier, when reasonably stable stocks like DG fall 20-25% in a single day the caution flags should be raised.

I wish someone smarter than me would help us all understand how much of this phoney market is buoyed by the weekly/monthly of millions being invested by the employed and their employers via 401K's???

[Madison]

The VIX spiked in a way that usually shows a short-term bottom.

The bad news is we're probably in the early stages of a recession. We're getting numbers we almost always get or only get during a recession.

Yes sir!

[Slurry Pumper]

Pretty nasty day yesterday as the markets start to roll over in my opinion. Things just don't just go straight up or down, so where do I think we have important levels of at least intraday support/resistance? Also that VIX thing is for real from guitarjosh. The way I like to playthings is if I want to buy PUTS, I pick a spot where I think there is resistance to any dead cat or rebound areas. Then when price rises up to that spot, I buy the puts. You can also get levels of support that break, but in my experience, that is a less rewarding play. Please don't blindly buy puts in the hole as they say, if you missed the elevator ride down, you missed it. Just wait for another one to come your way and keeps your eyes open for other opportunities.

SPY levels of Resistance / Support: $565.16, $555, $560.30, $552, $549, $544.50, $540.70(rising trend line), any lower this week and I will add to the list.
QQQ levels of Resistance / Support: $491.10, $488.60, $485, $473.40, $468, $463.50, $461, $455.70, $451.50, $445.50, $440.32 (200 DMA), $33.70 (Descending trend line).
IWM levels of Resistance / Support: $221.60, $220.50, $218, $216.25, $215, $213, $212 (50 DMA), $211.20, $208.50, $206.60 (100 DMA), $201.70 (200 DMA), $198.

I think you'll find that inflection points of market movement will be around these numbers that I put down on the list, and as the price approaches one of these numbers, there will be at least a intraday pause or bounce from these numbers, or a resistance level depending on which direction the market is moving at the time. Sometimes, markets come up short of the price, while other times the ywill spike it through on the short term, then every once in a while they hit the exact number.

All in all, these are the numbers I look for and plan around to buy or sell on a daily basis.

[astrobloke]

IF teh markets go crazy soon so too will NVDA shit the bedpan. It might be put option time?

wadda you say boys ?

[astrobloke]

yield curve about to re-invert

jobs, and bad numbers coming.

Fed PIVOT now, recipe for disaster. see ( 2001 , and GFC 2008 )

I think the stockmarket will shit the bed pan soon, along with NVDA and what not.

It's just a matter of time now.... Buffett dumped more stocks, like he did back in 2000 and 2007.

It's all adding up. They love this, and will use WW3 nuke scare to make it all come tumbling down.

[guitarjosh]

The VIX spiked in a way that usually shows a short-term bottom.

The bad news is we're probably in the early stages of a recession. We're getting numbers we almost always get or only get during a recession.

[Madison]

Berkshire/Buffett

You know, I already felt small and inconsequential but the following never stops making my jaw drop.

I started getting concerned about the overall market valuation andspeculative excesses in the May 2017 issue of Extreme Value. BerkshireHathaway finished that year with $328.9 billion in cash, T-bills, and liquidsecurities.
Its latest filings show a balance of $573.2 billion of cash,T-bills, other bonds, and stocks.
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Buffett has reduced hislargest equity position – in Apple (AAPL) – from more than a billion shares in2018 to about 400 million shares today. That's a 60% reduction in the biggestequity investment he's ever made.

[Madison]

I was right on this one. Market wanted pie in the sky from NVDA. But I think it'll start climbing again soon. Buying oppo.

You got me bud. Too many things pointing down. I'm with Buffett 90% cash until they force me otherwise with lower rates. How much is he making @ 5% on 230 Billion in cash. LOL

[d2bets]

Stocks (Throw a dart) on the least misgiving drop 25%. DG today. This is not indicative of a balanced valuation market.

I was right on this one. Market wanted pie in the sky from NVDA. But I think it'll start climbing again soon. Buying oppo.

[Slurry Pumper]

If you told me yesterday that NVDA will blow out the numbers but still have a sharp sell off while the SPY goes bullish by a percent, I would say nope, but it is the situation. So I'm on the right side of the move, but for the wrong reason.

[Madison]

I'm nervous. I think NVDA drops 6-8% on this one. Hope I'm way off base.

Stocks (Throw a dart) on the least misgiving drop 25%. DG today. This is not indicative of a balanced valuation market.

[d2bets]

I'm nervous. I think NVDA drops 6-8% on this one. Hope I'm way off base.

[Madison]

Homie, you know I'm always interested in learning from your Buy and Hold thoughts. I've watched your interest in SMCI carefully. Would you please kindly refresh my memory as to where you bought and how you are thinking. I'm asking without animosity, only because I've been looking for an entry point.

[Slurry Pumper]

Buying calls this morning that expire on Friday as a play for later today when NVDA reports. The markets have been hanging out right at resistance for the last couple of weeks, and I smell a gap over situation.

[Slurry Pumper]

Yeah NVDA has to come out with some rip you a new one earnings, and we will be on a bull run here. I'm not sure it gets past the all time highs, but between that and the looming rate cut this may be it. I caution everyone to look at what happens when the Fed lowers rates. History is setting up again.

[guitarjosh]

So we lose 818K jobs with a revision which confirms my thoughts that all of the jobs reports have been bullseye. Then the fed meeting minutes come out with a yeah we're going to lower rates in September and the markets are unfazed by both little tidbits. It makes it hard to say we aren't headed to hit a wall. I'm fully engaged in the gold and gold mining. With all of the things going on its just a mis calculation away from triggering a giant spike and conditions are ripe here.

NVDA's earnings will be huge next week. If it causes the market to hit new all time highs, I think we top out in September - October.

[Slurry Pumper]

So we lose 818K jobs with a revision which confirms my thoughts that all of the jobs reports have been bullseye. Then the fed meeting minutes come out with a yeah we're going to lower rates in September and the markets are unfazed by both little tidbits. It makes it hard to say we aren't headed to hit a wall. I'm fully engaged in the gold and gold mining. With all of the things going on its just a mis calculation away from triggering a giant spike and conditions are ripe here.

[CanuckG]

CHDN continues to print for me

I keep loading up XEQT every paycheck as well

[Madison]

Two of the more astute investors around in the last 50 years.

Lynch (Peter) told Rose that the stock market’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio had fluctuated from 10 to 20 since the end of WWII. And if the valuation was closer to the upper end of that range, it was overvalued and investors should be cautious.
Recent data backs his theory. Economist Robert Shiller shared data in his book Irrational Exuberance that indicates that the S&P 500’s historic average P/E multiple is 16.07. As of July, the multiple sits at 27.45 — far higher than historic average and the upper-end of Lynch’s preferred range.
In other words, the market is overvalued right now. In these conditions, Lynch believes a correction is “healthy” and investors should avoid frothy, overpriced stocks. This is because he says overvalued stocks offer a poor risk-reward ratio.

[homie1975]

Epic thread. I am going to dig into this during the weekend. Who knows if SBR is staying afloat much longer, but this seems like it's going to keep me entertained for at least a week, maybe more

nearly 6.5 years since we started this thread in March 2018.

there are many nuggets of knowledge in here from some amazing posters over the years.

[MOBIL19]

Epic thread. I am going to dig into this during the weekend. Who knows if SBR is staying afloat much longer, but this seems like it's going to keep me entertained for at least a week, maybe more

[ex50warrior]

I've been adding various forms of gold in my long-term account for years. Guess I should venture out and consider some of these potential value plays.

[Madison]

Another, that I've been supporting for years here is FLNC. Look at the support levels over the last 3 years. There's a lot of underlying money/support in this one. Been like a cash register for me. Buy circa 15 sell some at 23? and keep building position.

Energy storage is the future!!

[Madison]

Intel? Interesting theory, thanks.

My pleasure. Add massive CAPEX with GOV support and book value, looks like a decent place to be if you have 3-7yr window.

[ex50warrior]

Intel? Interesting theory, thanks.

[Slurry Pumper]

Last week the SPY got to within 50 cents of one of my targets. Not bad considering the SPY gained 20 bucks in total. I know it's a what have you done for me lately type of bidness. $555.50 is a pretty stout point of resistance so, I wouldn't be surprised if the market either hangs out here for a while or even trails back down a bit as the week progresses.
Same strategy, buy calls or puts that expire at the end of the week with the knowledge that I will be getting rid of them either daily or in a few days. If a level has been busted through, up or down, I wait until the hourly candle close to e
ensure that it is a breakout before buying.

Upside: $555.50, $561.50, $565.15, $57.75
Downside $553.00, $550.00, $549.00, $545.50-545.00, $543.00

[Madison]

Intel 0.74 to book value ... Compliments to Investor Place

Using the market’s pessimism to your advantage

Billionaire Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, is credited with one of my favorite investment quotes:
In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.
Intel is not a "comfortable" investment today. On the other hand, buying a stock like Nvidia would be very comfortable. After all, even if its price fell, who could blame you for buying this AI chip king?
Be that as it may, Eric suggests Intel will outperform Nvidia looking forward. And part of his rationale is this difference in sentiment and expectation for the two companies.
Let's go to Eric in his August issue of Investment Report:
Trusting popular opinion is toxic because it tends to rely on linear projections. It expects yesterday's trends to become tomorrow's trends as well…
Clearly, popular opinion favors Nvidia over Intel. But I would take the other side of that trade. Over the next few years, I expect the unpopular shares of Intel to outperform the wildly popular shares of Nvidia.
Nvidia's high-flying stock anticipates ongoing Hall of Fame results, while Intel's depressed stock anticipates endless disappointment. It reflects a company that will continue riding the bench at the little league level for a long while.
Therein lies today's investment opportunity. Even modest signs of improvement at Intel could propel the stock to much higher levels.
A quick look at valuation helps shed light on why just a hint of good news could boost Intel's share price (and outperform Nvidia) …
Today, Nvidia trades at roughly 75X its cash flow, and its price-to-book ratio is 55.
Meanwhile, Thomas reports that Intel trades for just 11.5 times this year's cash flows and 0.74 times book value – its lowest point in history, and one of the few times it's ever traded below book value.

[Madison]

Maddy, Josher, Slurry

thank you for keeping this thread alive.

6.5 years now and going strong!

good health and good investment returns to You and Yours

To you and yours as well my friend.

[Slurry Pumper]

Not quite to my target yesterday but we still have today yet to go. I would caution everyone that during election season reports and just about any market news will be completely fabricated as a political play. This goes for affects that move markets either way. Overall I believe we are heading for a cliff, but where that point is I have no idea so in the meantime, I just buy gold on any dip to hold and play weekly call and put options as a scalp to swing trade.

[homie1975]

Maddy, Josher, Slurry

thank you for keeping this thread alive.

6.5 years now and going strong!

good health and good investment returns to You and Yours

[homie1975]

2% is bloody monday now...
What a joke.

Bring on 20% and that's still too little in this trash market.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the SPY made it to the $543 spot which roughly correspondes to a 60% bounce back from the recent dip. Or for you Fibonacci fans the 61.8% area. Is this it? Yeah maybe, I'm kind of expecting another down leg. Then again who knows. Numbers I like as resistance/ support
Upside SPY: $549, 555.50, 559.50, 562.40, and the all time high 565.16.
Downside SPY:$538.75, 536.60, 534 532, 527.50, and 522.50

[guitarjosh]

I do think the market can hit new all-time highs, we're only 4% away on the S&P 500. That said, the top performing sectors over the last month have been 1) Real Estate, 2) Utilities 3) Consumer Staples, and 4) Health Care. Over the past 3 months, Real Estate, Utilities, and Health Care are the only sectors to outperform the S&P 500. It looks like the market is taking a defensive stance.

[veriableodds]

Hedged High dividend play equal parts
YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF (TSLY) Stock Interactive Price Chart (seekingalpha.com)

1 share of each @ todays current cost
$29.25 payout according to last month's dividend = $1.82 monthly dividends per share