Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

After a couple of down days the SPY rebounds today right upto a trendline that is in play at $579. Sure it closed pretty much right on it so we will not know if price is revisiting the scene of the crime before tumbling, or if it has regained the bulls for another run in a rising wedge that is pretty narrow at this point.

[homie1975]

The polls are pretty tight bro

i am watching closely every day and trying to gauge where the truth lies between the polls and the betting markets.

polymarkets gets moved by offshore whales so that may be a manipulation game by connected people trying to influence blue voters to stay home thinking they have no chance

red team did this in the midterms 2022 in the lead up to election day but it backfired.

my target date to make a move is 10/30 or 10/31 right now.

i highly doubt i let it get to Monday 11/04 the eve of the election.

[homie1975]

Still interested in SMCI and looking for entry point. Your thoughts are appreciated.

Look at Uranium. I've been talking (in here) for some SMR's are the future. Now that all of a sudden Micrsoft and Amazon jump in it's in the spotlight everywhere. CCJ is the miner.

Also been in IONQ (Quantum) for years again in here. Racing higher of late.

Both long term speculative, but great one's to take a small position and put away for the kids.

simple.
get in ANY stock you like right now. you CANNOT time it. no matter what people think. they will get one timing right and 9 wrong.

if if if you believe in SMCI (do your HW) then get in right now.

[Madison]

i changed my ways a few years ago.
i now sell laggards when i deem necessary and i harvest the tax losses.

i also peel off gains on parabolic increases (smci is an example i took profit on but kept a base position)

Still interested in SMCI and looking for entry point. Your thoughts are appreciated.

Look at Uranium. I've been talking (in here) for some SMR's are the future. Now that all of a sudden Micrsoft and Amazon jump in it's in the spotlight everywhere. CCJ is the miner.

Also been in IONQ (Quantum) for years again in here. Racing higher of late.

Both long term speculative, but great one's to take a small position and put away for the kids.

[gauchojake]

The polls are pretty tight bro

[Madison]

Anyone watching the 10yr vs the Fed's .50 cut?? Circa 3.65 to 4.15 this morning. Bastards, called my 5.75 CD's when 10 was at 3.65. May have still had them if they knew then what we see now.

I can't ever remember the 10 moving in the pace it has been the last year or so.

[homie1975]

i am going to peel off gains in several positions before election day 11/05.


Oh my ... Now I'm really worried. LOL

i changed my ways a few years ago.
i now sell laggards when i deem necessary and i harvest the tax losses.

i also peel off gains on parabolic increases (smci is an example i took profit on but kept a base position)

[Madison]

i am going to peel off gains in several positions before election day 11/05.


Oh my ... Now I'm really worried. LOL

[homie1975]

if polls tighten up and it looks like the election result will be seriously contended either way in a few of the swing states, i am going to peel off gains in several positions before election day 11/05.

markets do not like uncertainty.

they are okay if one side wins vs the other, just backtest it through history.

but if it is a closely contested race because one or more swing states that decide the 270 vote winner are <10,000 votes, the markets could freak out while it gets dragged out court.

this did not happen in 2020 because the contested states (AZ and GA) would not have made a difference in the electoral college because the election winner received 306 votes and the combined total votes in AZ/GA was 27.

306 less 27 = 279 votes so the winner would have remained the winner.

here in 2024 we have a different ballgame going on.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well, I went through all my charts as I do every weekend, and my tin foil hat is picking up a signal that may say bad things are ahead. I'm not sure what it is yet, maybe it is just a rerun of Hogan's Heroes, but then again, the charts are showing divergences all over the place with the VIX, SPY, QQQ, and Dow transports. Things still look bullish right now, but I will be looking for the QQQ to make a gap fill on the daily chart, and then I predict there is some pullback action coming, and probably a decent pullback.

Well, I stated that the QQQs would fill the gap and then we would have a pullback. That did indeed happen, but it only lasted 1 day before all the markets rebounded and pushed higher. This wasn't the pullback I was looking for. Things still look bullish for now although I'm hot on the sell trigger if a turn comes. Until a sign or signal comes in with actionable behavior, its full steam ahead. I still expect a turn to come but who knows when and how deep it will be. There are several warning signs that it's bound to take a pause at some point soon enough and I would be surprised if it didn't happen before the election.

[Slurry Pumper]

Yep, we're going to keep going up until we don't. Then we'll reassess directions then

[Madison]

melt up
don't fight the tape

It's FLA in August. LOL

[homie1975]

melt up
don't fight the tape

[Madison]

I'm certainly no genius but LAC up 20% today.

[Slurry Pumper]

From my viewpoint and apparently GM's there's something. Certainly speculative with no earnings expected until 26 or maybe more, but I guess this is how you can bag 10x ers. Price right.

Thanks for your time and thoughts.

I agree with your thoughts on the return if they have the power to push this through. I just think that when it comes down to it. There is going to be some pushback that will be a hinderance with probable delays. If it happens however, no doubt it would be good returns. Hell, there are other projects that are worse you could be backing, so if you've done your homework and it checks out, it could be a start of much needed mining project for the US.

[Madison]

Well, a project like this is totally needed for the North American lithium market. I am skeptical however that the environmentalist will be OK with this. It looks like they have some money behind the project, but not a thing I would be looking to invest in until the facility is built. Knowing what goes on at the "Lithium" plant, I see cost over runs and delays in the future unless they get political backing to cut through mountains of red tape.

From my viewpoint and apparently GM's there's something. Certainly speculative with no earnings expected until 26 or maybe more, but I guess this is how you can bag 10x ers. Price right.

Thanks for your time and thoughts.

[Slurry Pumper]

Lithium Americas

Well, a project like this is totally needed for the North American lithium market. I am skeptical however that the environmentalist will be OK with this. It looks like they have some money behind the project, but not a thing I would be looking to invest in until the facility is built. Knowing what goes on at the "Lithium" plant, I see cost over runs and delays in the future unless they get political backing to cut through mountains of red tape.

[Madison]

LAC investors

Lithium Americas

[homie1975]

[Slurry Pumper]

Well, I went through all my charts as I do every weekend, and my tin foil hat is picking up a signal that may say bad things are ahead. I'm not sure what it is yet, maybe it is just a rerun of Hogan's Heroes, but then again, the charts are showing divergences all over the place with the VIX, SPY, QQQ, and Dow transports. Things still look bullish right now, but I will be looking for the QQQ to make a gap fill on the daily chart, and then I predict there is some pullback action coming, and probably a decent pullback.

This will be an interesting week,

[Slurry Pumper]

I come down on timing the market, and now is the best time to time it. Go ahead and cost average like the others have touted, but wait a couple of months and let things happen for a while here. If the other guys are correct you'll pay a little more, but if it all falls apart in the next couple months you may find things are on sale.

[Madison]

dollar cost average if you need to. YOU NEED TO!!

[homie1975]

Stocks continuing to rise sucks if you want to buy. No?

always a good time to buy. dollar cost average if you need to.

but by waiting, you will simply be buying higher in the future, most likely.

cannot time it.

i have been preaching this for 6.5 years now.

[teecee]

Stonks continue to rip.
God Bless America!

Stocks continuing to rise sucks if you want to buy. No?

[d2bets]

After a brutal year of layoffs in 2023, companies this year have continued to cut jobs across tech, media, finance, manufacturing, and retail.
Tech titans like IBM, Google, and Microsoft; finance leaders like Goldman Sachs, Citi, and BlackRock; accounting firms like PwC; entertainment behemoths like Pixar and Paramount; and corporate giants like Tesla, Dow, and Nike have all announced layoffs.
A survey in late December said nearly 40% of business leaders had expected layoffs this year, ResumeBuilder said. ResumeBuilder talked to about 900 leaders at organizations with more than 10 employees. Half of those surveyed cited concerns about a recession as a reason for potential layoffs.

That's because AI is replacing them all. And then they can get hired to work on the AI. Natural stuff. The layoffs are not because IBM, Google and Microsoft are struggling. Come on. They're making record profits.

[Madison]

After a brutal year of layoffs in 2023, companies this year have continued to cut jobs across tech, media, finance, manufacturing, and retail.
Tech titans like IBM, Google, and Microsoft; finance leaders like Goldman Sachs, Citi, and BlackRock; accounting firms like PwC; entertainment behemoths like Pixar and Paramount; and corporate giants like Tesla, Dow, and Nike have all announced layoffs.
A survey in late December said nearly 40% of business leaders had expected layoffs this year, ResumeBuilder said. ResumeBuilder talked to about 900 leaders at organizations with more than 10 employees. Half of those surveyed cited concerns about a recession as a reason for potential layoffs.

[Madison]

Stonks continue to rip.
God Bless America!

I think Jim Jones said something similar. "Just drink a little of this delicious lemonade".

[d2bets]

Stonks continue to rip.
God Bless America!

[Madison]

Agreed. I'm getting a bit worried these numbers are getting "baked" China like. What's real? Until my final day when I go to gamblers heaven (hopefully not hell lol) I swear the migrants and lower income are pumping the #'s and the 50ish higher income middle class is getting laid off and working at the Super Market competing with them. I see it everywhere. Went for breakfast last week and I swear the lady who served us was closing in on 80.

And why the FAWK does the GOV keep adding jobs at this rate? They were circa 50% of the recent jobs report. They can't reduce the national debt or agree on a budget but they keep hiring. Pensions anyone??

[Slurry Pumper]

Markets overall have been range bound for the better part of 3 weeks now with the North end measuring $574.75ish on the SPY and the South side coming in around $562. Yesterday's close at $573.70 puts the current level up to challenge the North end this morning. Overall, the charts look like a bull flag situation but until the $574.75 spot is breached and closed on a daily basis, we remain range bound with no real action.

[Madison]

I live out in the middle of nowhere with a bunch of Mennonite neighbors so seating at any restaurant was never an issue. I have noticed a marked decrease in Amazon / UPS / and even Fed Ex trucks crawling around. Back a few years ago I could drive down the road at almost any time and see 5 to 6 delivery trucks driving around. When I go to the local Lowes, 1st I hardly see anyone who works there, and there aren't massive crowds buying stuff either. All in all, I'm not seeing record breaking activities going on around my area. From the government reports coming out, you would think things are booming.

I do run a Business, and the number of unsolicited resumes hasn't changed either so that is a mark in favor of a booming economy. Usually, I would be getting calls from friends of friends who work for other slurry pumping type companies if they are getting laid off due to a recession.

Agreed. I'm getting a bit worried these numbers are getting "baked" China like. What's real? Until my final day when I go to gamblers heaven (hopefully not hell lol) I swear the migrants and lower income are pumping the #'s and the 50ish higher income middle class is getting laid off and working at the Super Market competing with them. I see it everywhere. Went for breakfast last week and I swear the lady who served us was closing in on 80.

[Madison]

Well the jobs report shows everything is going great. Of course I don't believe a word of it, but since I trade on the daily mostly, I'll run with it this morning. Along with the port strike being put on hold, we are going to new highs in very short order. So why did the Fed have to cut rates again?

It just doesn't compute to me. Businesses struggling, Nearly ever talking head including Homie "Goldilocks". Yet the next word from them is why not another 6 .25 cuts in the next 15 months. WHY????

And maybe one of you can explain why the US is the leading petroleum exporter and we haven't filled the SPR?? Too many things are not adding up.

[Madison]

MADDer what city?

here in CA at major cities and nearby suburbs of SD, LA, SF you cannot get a table anywhere between Thurs to Sunday at peak hours.

Outback Steakhouse? come on mannnn LOLOL

NE MA. Didn't realize the Outback was below you. Living off SS and investments here. Just a peon here.

Actually, I don't think we have many reasonable varied menu higher end options here. There are a few but not too many.

[Slurry Pumper]

I went to a popular Hibachi restaurant next town over (population 35,000) last night (Thursday). Walk in and they ask if we have reservations, which we did not. They take us to the Hibachi room which has 8 Hibachi flat-tops and 10-12 seats around each. We walked in at 6pm and were there until 730pm. We had some sushi and apps so it took a little longer than usual for Hibachi. Our party of 5 was the only table there the whole time. This place used to be full 100+ people any night of the week. People cant spend $150-$250 on Hibachi anymore.

The economy is in shambles and people just want to say wages are at an all time high. Net worth all time high. Well prices are also at an all-time high. The rich are getting richer. Middle-class can't afford life right now.

If they have to keep telling us how good things are, they probably aren't as good as they seem.

I live out in the middle of nowhere with a bunch of Mennonite neighbors so seating at any restaurant was never an issue. I have noticed a marked decrease in Amazon / UPS / and even Fed Ex trucks crawling around. Back a few years ago I could drive down the road at almost any time and see 5 to 6 delivery trucks driving around. When I go to the local Lowes, 1st I hardly see anyone who works there, and there aren't massive crowds buying stuff either. All in all, I'm not seeing record breaking activities going on around my area. From the government reports coming out, you would think things are booming.

I do run a Business, and the number of unsolicited resumes hasn't changed either so that is a mark in favor of a booming economy. Usually, I would be getting calls from friends of friends who work for other slurry pumping type companies if they are getting laid off due to a recession.

[Crusherrr]

Talking Heads: "Don't look now. Economy Thriving"

Reality: Wifey and I went out for lunch 1pm Outback. 1 person at 20 seat bar. No Greeter. Been going same Outback for 25 years. Never not greeted. Wait staff at bare minimum, and all new faces. 2 tables of 3. Like a ghost town.

I went to a popular Hibachi restaurant next town over (population 35,000) last night (Thursday). Walk in and they ask if we have reservations, which we did not. They take us to the Hibachi room which has 8 Hibachi flat-tops and 10-12 seats around each. We walked in at 6pm and were there until 730pm. We had some sushi and apps so it took a little longer than usual for Hibachi. Our party of 5 was the only table there the whole time. This place used to be full 100+ people any night of the week. People cant spend $150-$250 on Hibachi anymore.

The economy is in shambles and people just want to say wages are at an all time high. Net worth all time high. Well prices are also at an all-time high. The rich are getting richer. Middle-class can't afford life right now.

If they have to keep telling us how good things are, they probably aren't as good as they seem.