Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

Josher, what percent of your portfolio do have "Waiting for a Pullback"?

Of my investable amount I have about 60-70 percent.

[Madison]

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

I'm doing really well with HWM. Had VRT on my watch last year and all I did was watch it go the moon. Uggghhhh.

[Madison]

Per Stansberry:

Many people start paying attention when the index hits extremelevels of fear. But as Chris noted in DailyWealth Trader today, a VIXreading this low is significant, too, because it points to outperformance fromU.S. stocks in the following months and year.
He looked at each case since 1990 when the VIX dropped to 12,where it closed on Friday. On average, the S&P 500 gained roughly 5% in sixmonths and 9.5% a year later. That beats the U.S. benchmark's average 4%six-month return and 8.1% annual return.
As Chris noted, "The outperformance might not be massive. Butwhat's impressive is the win rate after one of these events." As hewrote...
The S&P 500 was up 86% of the time six months later... and 84%of the time over the next year. Those are darn good odds.
Meanwhile, the maximum gain after one of these events was 37% overa year. And the largest drop was 12%.
In short, yes, the market is going through an eerie period ofcalm. But that doesn't mean that panic has to follow.

[guitarjosh]

Josh, any stock symbols you like?

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Check out railroads and trucks today...

Josh, any stock symbols you like?

[guitarjosh]

Fearless leader and others charting transports:

Kind of looks like there's some cracks, no?

Check out railroads and trucks today...

[Madison]

Yeah, I'm seeing that too. Trucks vs S&P 500 broke through a trend line going back several years. Rails vs S&P 500 is the lowest since at least Covid.

Check out how discretionary is doing compared to staples too.

It's like we're seeing 2 economies, the Wall Street listed economy is doing okay, while Main Street is doing horribly.

I'm seeing a big divergence in demographics. Baby Boomers bereft of fixed income earnings for 10yrs or more have seen a 2 year resurrection of safe income at circa 5%. Take the conservative percent of institutional and my senior dad (depending on 5% CD's years ago) and the elder generation is seeing a HUGE (for them) increase in disposable income; the Boomers are keeping the economy liquid.

Rick Reader made an interesting point on Bloomberg Week that the economy may actually contract if interest rates go down??

All my best!

[guitarjosh]

Fearless leader and others charting transports:

Kind of looks like there's some cracks, no?

Yeah, I'm seeing that too. Trucks vs S&P 500 broke through a trend line going back several years. Rails vs S&P 500 is the lowest since at least Covid.

Check out how discretionary is doing compared to staples too.

It's like we're seeing 2 economies, the Wall Street listed economy is doing okay, while Main Street is doing horribly.

[Madison]

Fearless leader and others charting transports:

Kind of looks like there's some cracks, no?

This from Stansberry ... I thought transports were down???

Editor's note: Historically, the transportation sector has been a good indicator of things to come in the market.
If stocks seem great but transportation stocks are lagging, it's a warning sign for the overall market. But if transportation stocks are hitting new highs, that means the future of the stock market is bright...

That's why Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond says it's critical for investors to be aware of the current state of the transportation sector in an effort to determine how to navigate the broad market moving forward.

In today's Masters Series, originally from the April 29 Weekly Market Outlook issue, Greg explains why transportation stocks are performing well right now... and details how this uptrend indicates a broad market rally is underway...

[Madison]

Fearless leader and others charting transports:

Kind of looks like there's some cracks, no?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, MAD. Yes, I'm holding LAC. Will look to add more.

I have noticed that Junk Silver prices are rising.

[Madison]

Source: Wirestock Creators / Shutterstock.com

In my view, Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) stock trading under $5 is a gift. Once sentiments reverse for lithium, LAC stock is likely to go ballistic from deeply undervalued levels.

To put things into perspective, Lithium Americas has a current market valuation of $990 million. In comparison, the after-tax net present value of Thacker Pass asset is $5.7 billion. Purely based on asset valuation, the stock can be a six-bagger from current levels.

However, if we look beyond this, the Thacker Pass has a mine life of 40 years. Once both the phases of the lithium asset are commercialized, the annual EBITDA from the asset is likely at $2 billion. Clearly, operating, and free cash flows will be robust. Further, estimates can change on the upside if lithium skyrockets due to supply-gap concerns in the coming years.

I would therefore buy and hold LAC stock. With commercialization of the Thacker Pass asset due in 2027, multibagger returns are likely before that as the markets discount the cash flow potential.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

He's 6 months to late. I gave out COPX then. I thought you bought??

Hi, Madison. Yes, COPX is in my portfolio. Also have SCCO.

I really think wheels are in motion. People forget about Precious Metals, but they always come back. There's a reason for the adjective PRECIOUS.

Ag/Au on the move. What do you think the USA looks like in ten years?

[Madison]

Middelkoop is high on Copper (22:00):

He's 6 months to late. I gave out COPX then. I thought you bought??

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gold and Silver on the move, boys. Precious metals in play?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Middelkoop is high on Copper (22:00):

[Madison]

my old man lost a ton on paper in 87 and my mom nearly cut his nuts off and roasted them. she was so pissed. my ole' man then swore off individual stocks forever and only went ETFs and mutual funds.

i completely agree with your list of potential black swans.

Hope you were able to get a small position in TER at 95 now 120 ish. SYM also looking strong but maybe getting a bit over-priced.

Keep us/me updated on your thoughts on SMCI. Kills me I missed the ride from 250.

[homie1975]

Well, I have you by 20+ years. You are wise to be 90% bullish. My main concern at my age is preservation of capital.

Regarding bearish/bullish and your dad , in short I think you've seen a good 15 years or so of mostly bullish. I've been through 87/2000/2008, so I'm bearish when need be.

I'd would not close my eyes/brain to National Debt/M2 Money Supply/or increasing CC debt. There are few other storm clouds most of which I've posted, so just keeper your radar clearly focused.

All my best!

my old man lost a ton on paper in 87 and my mom nearly cut his nuts off and roasted them. she was so pissed. my ole' man then swore off individual stocks forever and only went ETFs and mutual funds.

i completely agree with your list of potential black swans.

[Madison]

MADder how are we different?

I am always Bullish. My old man is always Bearish. Are you like my old man?

Rates will not go up. They will remain where they are or they will come down.

There are mostly sunny skies in terms of the fundamentals.

The geopolitical concerns are the only real worries the Bull Market has right now, but as we know, it climbs the Wall of Worry.

Well, I have you by 20+ years. You are wise to be 90% bullish. My main concern at my age is preservation of capital.

Regarding bearish/bullish and your dad , in short I think you've seen a good 15 years or so of mostly bullish. I've been through 87/2000/2008, so I'm bearish when need be.

I'd would not close my eyes/brain to National Debt/M2 Money Supply/or increasing CC debt. There are few other storm clouds most of which I've posted, so just keeper your radar clearly focused.

All my best!

[homie1975]

Good work!

sometimes chicken sometimes feathers, but MADder asked so i looked it up and reported out.

just happened to buy at near bottom on recent chart, when i scooped up more on 4/19.

the vix was pretty high, sentiment was low, it felt just bloody enough out there to take some more bites of the apple.

hey, speaking of AAPL ??

[homie1975]

Thank you! It's fun to follow along and learn from someone who has a different perspective.

MADder how are we different?

I am always Bullish. My old man is always Bearish. Are you like my old man?

Rates will not go up. They will remain where they are or they will come down.

There are mostly sunny skies in terms of the fundamentals.

The geopolitical concerns are the only real worries the Bull Market has right now, but as we know, it climbs the Wall of Worry.

[Madison]

BTC I bought more yday in the mid 57's

SMCI NVDA and ARM?

SMCI I bought more on 4/19 at ~$715. It is now $762 !! up 6.5% in less than two weeks.

NVDA I bought more on 4/19 at ~$770. It is now $858 !! up 11.4% in less than two weeks.

ARM? I bought more on 4/19 at ~$89. It is now $98 !! up 10% in less than two weeks.

the best part is anyone here can look that i posted these on 4/19, timestamped, and all 3 are up since then !!


BTC fell through the $60K support but i keep on nibbling away on dips of ~7% or more.

Thank you! It's fun to follow along and learn from someone who has a different perspective.

[mjsuax13]

BTC I bought more yday in the mid 57's

SMCI NVDA and ARM?

SMCI I bought more on 4/19 at ~$715. It is now $762 !! up 6.5% in less than two weeks.

NVDA I bought more on 4/19 at ~$770. It is now $858 !! up 11.4% in less than two weeks.

ARM? I bought more on 4/19 at ~$89. It is now $98 !! up 10% in less than two weeks.

the best part is anyone here can look that i posted these on 4/19, timestamped, and all 3 are up since then !!


BTC fell through the $60K support but i keep on nibbling away on dips of ~7% or more.

Good work!

[homie1975]

No harm meant, but how's this trade working out early? Doesn't look great early on??

BTC I bought more yday in the mid 57's

SMCI NVDA and ARM?

SMCI I bought more on 4/19 at ~$715. It is now $762 !! up 6.5% in less than two weeks.

NVDA I bought more on 4/19 at ~$770. It is now $858 !! up 11.4% in less than two weeks.

ARM? I bought more on 4/19 at ~$89. It is now $98 !! up 10% in less than two weeks.

the best part is anyone here can look that i posted these on 4/19, timestamped, and all 3 are up since then !!


BTC fell through the $60K support but i keep on nibbling away on dips of ~7% or more.

[Madison]

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

No harm meant, but how's this trade working out early? Doesn't look great early on??

[Madison]

Regards to Investor Place:

For the first time in our nation’s history, a 30-year-old is not doing aswell as his/her parents were doing at 30. That’s never happened before.
An average 70-year-old is 72% wealthier than they were four years ago. Theaverage person under the age of 40 is 24% less wealthy.
What we have in the quote-unquote “most prosperous economy in the world” is ageneration of youth that is less well-off financially, more anxious, moredepressed, more obese, and more likely to be addicted to opiates, andgenerally, feels shitty about America…

[Madison]

Madder if you look at 2022 March, June, Sept, and Dec, basically the end of each quarter, you will see I posted my plays which were mostly buying beaten up stocks (not beaten up companies). I urged everyone here to buy META in the $130 range.

I will be the first to plead guilty to missing META. Quilty here.

I would reccommend as we've stated previously of taking a 10-20% play in SYM/TER. Robotics is the future,.

BOL, Bud!!

[homie1975]

Somewhat unusual for you to step out and document. I'm trying to better understand your positioning so please keep us posted on the progress. BOL my friend.

Madder if you look at 2022 March, June, Sept, and Dec, basically the end of each quarter, you will see I posted my plays which were mostly buying beaten up stocks (not beaten up companies). I urged everyone here to buy META in the $130 range.

[homie1975]

Given your positions I think now would be a great time for you to look at TER. Resistance at 95. Over the last 6 months it keeps wanting to go higher. Also SYM nearing lower support levels. If you think SMCI/NVDA are going higher from here these could be an interesting proxy play.

Thanks Madder.

I just added TER and SYM to my watchlist.

[Madison]

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

Given your positions I think now would be a great time for you to look at TER. Resistance at 95. Over the last 6 months it keeps wanting to go higher. Also SYM nearing lower support levels. If you think SMCI/NVDA are going higher from here these could be an interesting proxy play.

[Madison]

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

Somewhat unusual for you to step out and document. I'm trying to better understand your positioning so please keep us posted on the progress. BOL my friend.

[homie1975]

Short term a bounce, after that it will depend a lot on inflation data. SMCI dropped 23% today, NVDA down 10%, I doubt they does that again soon.

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

[guitarjosh]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?

Short term a bounce, after that it will depend a lot on inflation data. SMCI dropped 23% today, NVDA down 10%, I doubt they does that again soon.

[Madison]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?

I just don't see a lot of upside momentum going into the election. Everyone will tell you history says markets rise into pres elections but this time we have option "Unknown/Nearing Demetia/Nearing Jail". Other countries must be laughing only exaggerating geopolitical possibilities.

Personally, I see very little options higher. Seems like a good time to lighten or be cautious. HOLD at best. Market showing buy support at a minimum.

[Enkhbat]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?