Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

Madder if you look at 2022 March, June, Sept, and Dec, basically the end of each quarter, you will see I posted my plays which were mostly buying beaten up stocks (not beaten up companies). I urged everyone here to buy META in the $130 range.

I will be the first to plead guilty to missing META. Quilty here.

I would reccommend as we've stated previously of taking a 10-20% play in SYM/TER. Robotics is the future,.

BOL, Bud!!

[homie1975]

Somewhat unusual for you to step out and document. I'm trying to better understand your positioning so please keep us posted on the progress. BOL my friend.

Madder if you look at 2022 March, June, Sept, and Dec, basically the end of each quarter, you will see I posted my plays which were mostly buying beaten up stocks (not beaten up companies). I urged everyone here to buy META in the $130 range.

[homie1975]

Given your positions I think now would be a great time for you to look at TER. Resistance at 95. Over the last 6 months it keeps wanting to go higher. Also SYM nearing lower support levels. If you think SMCI/NVDA are going higher from here these could be an interesting proxy play.

Thanks Madder.

I just added TER and SYM to my watchlist.

[Madison]

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

Given your positions I think now would be a great time for you to look at TER. Resistance at 95. Over the last 6 months it keeps wanting to go higher. Also SYM nearing lower support levels. If you think SMCI/NVDA are going higher from here these could be an interesting proxy play.

[Madison]

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

Somewhat unusual for you to step out and document. I'm trying to better understand your positioning so please keep us posted on the progress. BOL my friend.

[homie1975]

Short term a bounce, after that it will depend a lot on inflation data. SMCI dropped 23% today, NVDA down 10%, I doubt they does that again soon.

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

[guitarjosh]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?

Short term a bounce, after that it will depend a lot on inflation data. SMCI dropped 23% today, NVDA down 10%, I doubt they does that again soon.

[Madison]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?

I just don't see a lot of upside momentum going into the election. Everyone will tell you history says markets rise into pres elections but this time we have option "Unknown/Nearing Demetia/Nearing Jail". Other countries must be laughing only exaggerating geopolitical possibilities.

Personally, I see very little options higher. Seems like a good time to lighten or be cautious. HOLD at best. Market showing buy support at a minimum.

[Enkhbat]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?

[homie1975]

JOSHer I am not feeling it, and you know how Bullish I am by nature.

The Macro events very concerning.

I see significant downside remaining, probably 5% down from here is my guess.

After hours in deep Red due to Israel strike near Isfahan, Iran.

[homie1975]

I'm aware a few of you follow this ...

The transports gauge closed at its lowest level in five months on Wednesday after an earnings miss sent shares of trucking company J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. more than 8% lower. This latest bout of weakness followed a break below the gauge’s 200-day moving average on Friday, according to FactSet data.

good catch. bearish for sure.

[Madison]

I'm aware a few of you follow this ...

The transports gauge closed at its lowest level in five months on Wednesday after an earnings miss sent shares of trucking company J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. more than 8% lower. This latest bout of weakness followed a break below the gauge’s 200-day moving average on Friday, according to FactSet data.

[homie1975]

Market internals are getting very oversold, we could have a sharp rally soon...

JOSHer I am not feeling it, and you know how Bullish I am by nature.

The Macro events very concerning.

I see significant downside remaining, probably 5% down from here is my guess.

[Madison]

Market internals are getting very oversold, we could have a sharp rally soon...

Huuummmm ... or otherwise. Daily hourly activity is very concerning.

[guitarjosh]

Market internals are getting very oversold, we could have a sharp rally soon...

[Madison]

Per CNBC ... "Will Powell succumb to political pressure to cut interest rates"? This does not sound positive to me.

Please remember that I have been espousing the opinion that he is between the proverbial rock and a hard place. The interest on the national debt is threatening our/it's ability to pay the interest, thus pressuring the NEED for lower interest.

Plan accordingly!

[Madison]

Coins ... Chucky!!!

Sorry to hijack the thread so to speak, but couldn't resist sending this out to our resident coin dumpster diver (meant humorously) Chucky.

Americans Throw Away Up to $68 Million in Coins a Year. Here Is Where It All Ends Up. (msn.com)

[Madison]

Brady isn't alone in predicting doom. Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame, GMO cofounder Jeremy Grantham, and renowned forecaster Gary Shilling have all issued dire warnings about what lies ahead for markets and the economy.
Still, it's worth underscoring that the US economy and stocks have largely defied naysayers. Stocks hit record highs earlier this year, while inflation has cooled significantly, unemployment remains near historic lows, and growth has been robust.

[Madison]

The consensus says "Don't time the market".

My personal history is in disagreement. (From 30K feet)

1987 crash ... I bought at/or near the bottom. BIG WIN (Well I was pretty poor so...)

1999 .Com ... I ran for the exits pre crash ... BIG WIN (This and 2001 made me)

2001 post .Com ... I bought the dip ... BIG WIN

2007 RE Crash ... I dumped all and shorted Banks and RE. BIG WIN!!!

2010 Post RE Crash. I froze. BIG Mistake. BIG Unrealized gain. LOSS DECADE.

2019-2024 ... Some gains but nothing to brag about. EVEN or moderate gains.

All in All from 30K feet when the SHTS hitting the fan lean conservative. It's a LONG road. Winners stay the course.

BOL to all.

[Madison]

FWIW, I feel we are or have been WAY over bought. For me personally, I have been lightening my speculative portfolio the last week or so. I don't have a lot of time left to ride the waves, and quite frankly don't want to, as I depend on SocSec and my investment income to survive.

[Madison]

All i know is my 401k is very healthy!!

All things are relative. In conversations within one must consider each posters stance/position. IE , I'm 70 and although I trade some. my financial goals are mostly preservation of capital, Slurry is day/week trading, our infamous author is mid-life and buy and hold. My children are mid 30's and have 40 or so more years to buy and recover. We all mostly have different objectives.

BOL.

[TheGoldenGoose]

All i know is my 401k is very healthy!!

SHUSH!!!

The Republicans don’t want to include that in discussions about inflation.

[INVEGA MAN]

All i know is my 401k is very healthy!!

[TheGoldenGoose]

Being that the Semiconductor stocks have hit the proverbial brick wall does GOOGL have any upside or even a bull 2x such as GGLL? Thoughts?

[Enkhbat]

crazy sell off today, hopefully a big up day tomorrow.

[Slurry Pumper]

It looks like the 50 DMA is going to be the spot where the SPY is bouncing following the sell off on Friday. From the events of the weekend typically I would think we are going to have a whopper of a rally, but believe it or not since the Iranian attack on Israel didn't really cause any damage, I can't consider today a Country invasion of another Country type of market and the futures bears that out as they are all rebounding. I still think we get a rally however, and that 513 spot is the beginning. After the bell the SPY must keep that level or the selloff will soon follow.

[Madison]

The commodity play is just starting and it ain't stopping any time soon unless the FED raises rates. The FED isn't going to raise rates before the election so we have a good 6 months to go here atleast.

How about that SPY dropping all the way down to $512 on Wednesday and Thursday which is just $1 below where I said was a spot they have to hold. I call that a spike and recovery. Could today be the 3rd time down there? who knows, but it is obvious that the market is doing all it can do to keep above the break down candle from last Thursday. If it doesn't keep price above, it could be bad. The 50 DMA rising and at $509 currently may not be any saving grace since it is pretty close at this point.

Always appreciated!

[Slurry Pumper]

The commodity play is just starting and it ain't stopping any time soon unless the FED raises rates. The FED isn't going to raise rates before the election so we have a good 6 months to go here atleast.

How about that SPY dropping all the way down to $512 on Wednesday and Thursday which is just $1 below where I said was a spot they have to hold. I call that a spike and recovery. Could today be the 3rd time down there? who knows, but it is obvious that the market is doing all it can do to keep above the break down candle from last Thursday. If it doesn't keep price above, it could be bad. The 50 DMA rising and at $509 currently may not be any saving grace since it is pretty close at this point.

[Madison]

Gold/ Silver/ Copper

Have ridden the wave. Where is this commodity play ending???

[Slurry Pumper]

Its hard to kill a bull. Today SPY ran down to test the same spot put in from Thursday's break down candle only to come almost all the way back to get above the 20 DMA pretty much in the last hour. From Thursday's breakdown candle I can say it is starting to look like a bearish wedge type of situation although the trend is still your friend and it hasn't broken yet. To break my bearish thoughts the SPY needs to get to and break through the $524.25ish area on a 2 hour candle close before I even think of buying anything long. As a matter of fact, I'll be buying Puts up there and if the scenario happen like I just mentioned, I'll gladly sell my shares at a slight loss and let fuel that next run higher. Otherwise, I'll be loading up. How about the down side of the bearish wedge you say. Well the low from Thursday ($513.10) is a real good line in the sand. Price needs to get to and proceed below on daily candle closes for the bears to take the ball. Next level is the 50DMA at $508.30 and that is where I will bee selling puts and probably expecting at least a pause if not a bounce off of it.
On the weekly chart for you weekly stock owner types. we are kind of in a sideways trend just waiting for that 20 WMA to come up to the price as it is pretty far away and a pause here is in order.
On the monthly chart, I would say its about time, or from a symmetry type situation from the last run for a down slide a little bit. Before we had 5 months up and 3 months down slightly. Markets like to keep the symmetrical thing going so I'm looking to see if that happens this month or not.

[guitarjosh]

SMCI popped through the neckline on a head and shoulders pattern, you might want to lock in your profits if you hold any.

[Slurry Pumper]

Thursday we got a bearish engulfing candle so I'm looking for a conformation that didn't come on Friday so that means we have today to look forward to. A breakdown below the low on Thursday would signal this confirmation but it has away to go. I'm more inclined to think the SPY hangs onto the 20DMA but after 3 times going to the 523-524 area and failing it is a wait and see before I start buying again.

[Slurry Pumper]

Gotta like the gold. It is moving every day. I still think the miners are cheap, and we seem to be in a situation where the only news that is bad for gold is if the FED raises rates and we all know he isn't going to do that this year even though he should.

[wombat]

ROOT also has a crazy 52 week range.

[guitarjosh]

Vix is still a little overbought so we could see a continuation of today's bounce next week