Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Middelkoop is high on Copper (22:00):

[Madison]

my old man lost a ton on paper in 87 and my mom nearly cut his nuts off and roasted them. she was so pissed. my ole' man then swore off individual stocks forever and only went ETFs and mutual funds.

i completely agree with your list of potential black swans.

Hope you were able to get a small position in TER at 95 now 120 ish. SYM also looking strong but maybe getting a bit over-priced.

Keep us/me updated on your thoughts on SMCI. Kills me I missed the ride from 250.

[homie1975]

Well, I have you by 20+ years. You are wise to be 90% bullish. My main concern at my age is preservation of capital.

Regarding bearish/bullish and your dad , in short I think you've seen a good 15 years or so of mostly bullish. I've been through 87/2000/2008, so I'm bearish when need be.

I'd would not close my eyes/brain to National Debt/M2 Money Supply/or increasing CC debt. There are few other storm clouds most of which I've posted, so just keeper your radar clearly focused.

All my best!

my old man lost a ton on paper in 87 and my mom nearly cut his nuts off and roasted them. she was so pissed. my ole' man then swore off individual stocks forever and only went ETFs and mutual funds.

i completely agree with your list of potential black swans.

[Madison]

MADder how are we different?

I am always Bullish. My old man is always Bearish. Are you like my old man?

Rates will not go up. They will remain where they are or they will come down.

There are mostly sunny skies in terms of the fundamentals.

The geopolitical concerns are the only real worries the Bull Market has right now, but as we know, it climbs the Wall of Worry.

Well, I have you by 20+ years. You are wise to be 90% bullish. My main concern at my age is preservation of capital.

Regarding bearish/bullish and your dad , in short I think you've seen a good 15 years or so of mostly bullish. I've been through 87/2000/2008, so I'm bearish when need be.

I'd would not close my eyes/brain to National Debt/M2 Money Supply/or increasing CC debt. There are few other storm clouds most of which I've posted, so just keeper your radar clearly focused.

All my best!

[homie1975]

Good work!

sometimes chicken sometimes feathers, but MADder asked so i looked it up and reported out.

just happened to buy at near bottom on recent chart, when i scooped up more on 4/19.

the vix was pretty high, sentiment was low, it felt just bloody enough out there to take some more bites of the apple.

hey, speaking of AAPL ??

[homie1975]

Thank you! It's fun to follow along and learn from someone who has a different perspective.

MADder how are we different?

I am always Bullish. My old man is always Bearish. Are you like my old man?

Rates will not go up. They will remain where they are or they will come down.

There are mostly sunny skies in terms of the fundamentals.

The geopolitical concerns are the only real worries the Bull Market has right now, but as we know, it climbs the Wall of Worry.

[Madison]

BTC I bought more yday in the mid 57's

SMCI NVDA and ARM?

SMCI I bought more on 4/19 at ~$715. It is now $762 !! up 6.5% in less than two weeks.

NVDA I bought more on 4/19 at ~$770. It is now $858 !! up 11.4% in less than two weeks.

ARM? I bought more on 4/19 at ~$89. It is now $98 !! up 10% in less than two weeks.

the best part is anyone here can look that i posted these on 4/19, timestamped, and all 3 are up since then !!


BTC fell through the $60K support but i keep on nibbling away on dips of ~7% or more.

Thank you! It's fun to follow along and learn from someone who has a different perspective.

[mjsuax13]

BTC I bought more yday in the mid 57's

SMCI NVDA and ARM?

SMCI I bought more on 4/19 at ~$715. It is now $762 !! up 6.5% in less than two weeks.

NVDA I bought more on 4/19 at ~$770. It is now $858 !! up 11.4% in less than two weeks.

ARM? I bought more on 4/19 at ~$89. It is now $98 !! up 10% in less than two weeks.

the best part is anyone here can look that i posted these on 4/19, timestamped, and all 3 are up since then !!


BTC fell through the $60K support but i keep on nibbling away on dips of ~7% or more.

Good work!

[homie1975]

No harm meant, but how's this trade working out early? Doesn't look great early on??

BTC I bought more yday in the mid 57's

SMCI NVDA and ARM?

SMCI I bought more on 4/19 at ~$715. It is now $762 !! up 6.5% in less than two weeks.

NVDA I bought more on 4/19 at ~$770. It is now $858 !! up 11.4% in less than two weeks.

ARM? I bought more on 4/19 at ~$89. It is now $98 !! up 10% in less than two weeks.

the best part is anyone here can look that i posted these on 4/19, timestamped, and all 3 are up since then !!


BTC fell through the $60K support but i keep on nibbling away on dips of ~7% or more.

[Madison]

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

No harm meant, but how's this trade working out early? Doesn't look great early on??

[Madison]

Regards to Investor Place:

For the first time in our nation’s history, a 30-year-old is not doing aswell as his/her parents were doing at 30. That’s never happened before.
An average 70-year-old is 72% wealthier than they were four years ago. Theaverage person under the age of 40 is 24% less wealthy.
What we have in the quote-unquote “most prosperous economy in the world” is ageneration of youth that is less well-off financially, more anxious, moredepressed, more obese, and more likely to be addicted to opiates, andgenerally, feels shitty about America…

[Madison]

Madder if you look at 2022 March, June, Sept, and Dec, basically the end of each quarter, you will see I posted my plays which were mostly buying beaten up stocks (not beaten up companies). I urged everyone here to buy META in the $130 range.

I will be the first to plead guilty to missing META. Quilty here.

I would reccommend as we've stated previously of taking a 10-20% play in SYM/TER. Robotics is the future,.

BOL, Bud!!

[homie1975]

Somewhat unusual for you to step out and document. I'm trying to better understand your positioning so please keep us posted on the progress. BOL my friend.

Madder if you look at 2022 March, June, Sept, and Dec, basically the end of each quarter, you will see I posted my plays which were mostly buying beaten up stocks (not beaten up companies). I urged everyone here to buy META in the $130 range.

[homie1975]

Given your positions I think now would be a great time for you to look at TER. Resistance at 95. Over the last 6 months it keeps wanting to go higher. Also SYM nearing lower support levels. If you think SMCI/NVDA are going higher from here these could be an interesting proxy play.

Thanks Madder.

I just added TER and SYM to my watchlist.

[Madison]

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

Given your positions I think now would be a great time for you to look at TER. Resistance at 95. Over the last 6 months it keeps wanting to go higher. Also SYM nearing lower support levels. If you think SMCI/NVDA are going higher from here these could be an interesting proxy play.

[Madison]

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

Somewhat unusual for you to step out and document. I'm trying to better understand your positioning so please keep us posted on the progress. BOL my friend.

[homie1975]

Short term a bounce, after that it will depend a lot on inflation data. SMCI dropped 23% today, NVDA down 10%, I doubt they does that again soon.

I loaded up last night on BTC at 62. 61, 60. I missed 59.5.

Today I loaded up on more SMCI and NVDA. ARM too.

[guitarjosh]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?

Short term a bounce, after that it will depend a lot on inflation data. SMCI dropped 23% today, NVDA down 10%, I doubt they does that again soon.

[Madison]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?

I just don't see a lot of upside momentum going into the election. Everyone will tell you history says markets rise into pres elections but this time we have option "Unknown/Nearing Demetia/Nearing Jail". Other countries must be laughing only exaggerating geopolitical possibilities.

Personally, I see very little options higher. Seems like a good time to lighten or be cautious. HOLD at best. Market showing buy support at a minimum.

[Enkhbat]

It was a rough week for the markets, what do you guys expect next week?

[homie1975]

JOSHer I am not feeling it, and you know how Bullish I am by nature.

The Macro events very concerning.

I see significant downside remaining, probably 5% down from here is my guess.

After hours in deep Red due to Israel strike near Isfahan, Iran.

[homie1975]

I'm aware a few of you follow this ...

The transports gauge closed at its lowest level in five months on Wednesday after an earnings miss sent shares of trucking company J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. more than 8% lower. This latest bout of weakness followed a break below the gauge’s 200-day moving average on Friday, according to FactSet data.

good catch. bearish for sure.

[Madison]

I'm aware a few of you follow this ...

The transports gauge closed at its lowest level in five months on Wednesday after an earnings miss sent shares of trucking company J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. more than 8% lower. This latest bout of weakness followed a break below the gauge’s 200-day moving average on Friday, according to FactSet data.

[homie1975]

Market internals are getting very oversold, we could have a sharp rally soon...

JOSHer I am not feeling it, and you know how Bullish I am by nature.

The Macro events very concerning.

I see significant downside remaining, probably 5% down from here is my guess.

[Madison]

Market internals are getting very oversold, we could have a sharp rally soon...

Huuummmm ... or otherwise. Daily hourly activity is very concerning.

[guitarjosh]

Market internals are getting very oversold, we could have a sharp rally soon...

[Madison]

Per CNBC ... "Will Powell succumb to political pressure to cut interest rates"? This does not sound positive to me.

Please remember that I have been espousing the opinion that he is between the proverbial rock and a hard place. The interest on the national debt is threatening our/it's ability to pay the interest, thus pressuring the NEED for lower interest.

Plan accordingly!

[Madison]

Coins ... Chucky!!!

Sorry to hijack the thread so to speak, but couldn't resist sending this out to our resident coin dumpster diver (meant humorously) Chucky.

Americans Throw Away Up to $68 Million in Coins a Year. Here Is Where It All Ends Up. (msn.com)

[Madison]

Brady isn't alone in predicting doom. Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame, GMO cofounder Jeremy Grantham, and renowned forecaster Gary Shilling have all issued dire warnings about what lies ahead for markets and the economy.
Still, it's worth underscoring that the US economy and stocks have largely defied naysayers. Stocks hit record highs earlier this year, while inflation has cooled significantly, unemployment remains near historic lows, and growth has been robust.

[Madison]

The consensus says "Don't time the market".

My personal history is in disagreement. (From 30K feet)

1987 crash ... I bought at/or near the bottom. BIG WIN (Well I was pretty poor so...)

1999 .Com ... I ran for the exits pre crash ... BIG WIN (This and 2001 made me)

2001 post .Com ... I bought the dip ... BIG WIN

2007 RE Crash ... I dumped all and shorted Banks and RE. BIG WIN!!!

2010 Post RE Crash. I froze. BIG Mistake. BIG Unrealized gain. LOSS DECADE.

2019-2024 ... Some gains but nothing to brag about. EVEN or moderate gains.

All in All from 30K feet when the SHTS hitting the fan lean conservative. It's a LONG road. Winners stay the course.

BOL to all.

[Madison]

FWIW, I feel we are or have been WAY over bought. For me personally, I have been lightening my speculative portfolio the last week or so. I don't have a lot of time left to ride the waves, and quite frankly don't want to, as I depend on SocSec and my investment income to survive.

[Madison]

All i know is my 401k is very healthy!!

All things are relative. In conversations within one must consider each posters stance/position. IE , I'm 70 and although I trade some. my financial goals are mostly preservation of capital, Slurry is day/week trading, our infamous author is mid-life and buy and hold. My children are mid 30's and have 40 or so more years to buy and recover. We all mostly have different objectives.

BOL.

[TheGoldenGoose]

All i know is my 401k is very healthy!!

SHUSH!!!

The Republicans don’t want to include that in discussions about inflation.

[INVEGA MAN]

All i know is my 401k is very healthy!!

[TheGoldenGoose]

Being that the Semiconductor stocks have hit the proverbial brick wall does GOOGL have any upside or even a bull 2x such as GGLL? Thoughts?