Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Hey yall,

While I haven't been postin much, I have been playing the markets just like I always do. I thin kwe are at a point where a turn in the tape is in order real soon, or maybe even today with the gap and crap situation. I think going into the rest of the month and probably a week or so afterwards the markets on the hole are headed lower. I'm not saying that the market is going to crash and burn, but looking at my favorite indicators show me that the markets are starting to get pretty far away from the home base (20 period moving average), the transports are also telling me that things are not advantageous to gains, and some other things.

[homie1975]

**** = mbly ... Lidar

MADder whaaaaaa ???

[Madison]

notable earnings this week:





tue: Jnj, rtx, lmt, nflx, p&g, vz, 3m, ge, ti, db horton


weds: At&t, abt labs, tesla!, ibm, now, lam research


thurs: Unp, shw, intc, ****, pypl


fri: Axp, nfs

**** = mbly ... Lidar

[homie1975]

Notable earnings this week:


Tue: JnJ, RTX, LMT, NFLX, P&G, VZ, 3M, GE, TI, DB Horton


Weds: AT&T, ABT Labs, Tesla!, IBM, NOW, LAM Research


Thurs: UNP, SHW, INTC, ****, PYPL


Fri: AXP, NFS

[homie1975]

Go go go

[homie1975]

Yeah, I mean overall that was less than 15% of my holdings. With recent life changes, it turns out NVDA now even after this is like 25% of my net worth.

2er
it's about 2% of my net worth

so if it cuts in half it only affects 1% of my net worth

if it cuts in half it affects 12.5% of yours.

that is too much for my comfort.

look up the Four Horsemen stocks of the late 90's and early 2000's in case you did not know them or might have forgotten (like I did).

they ran the market at that time like the Magnificent 7 do now.

DELL
CISCO
INTEL
MICROSOFT

only 1 out of the 4 is still a monster today.

be careful Mate.

[d2bets]

Don't. Flag 585. You can always buy back. You did the smart thing. Congrats on a great trade/investment!!!

Yeah, I mean overall that was less than 15% of my holdings. With recent life changes, it turns out NVDA now even after this is like 25% of my net worth.

[Madison]

There's a lot of 10x potential out there. IONQ, SYM, CRSP, DNA. Genetics and robotic's is the future. BOL!!

[Madison]

Yeah, actually I own some in my IRA and right now I have a sell order in for most of that at $585. Still only a fraction of my overall, but I need to diversify a little. Just don't want to pay the tax on the regular holding. That stance has served me well through the ups and downs.

Edit: sale executed at $585. I'm already happily regretting it.

Don't. Flag 585. You can always buy back. You did the smart thing. Congrats on a great trade/investment!!!

[d2bets]

Take some profit. "nobody ever lost taking a profit". You've done amazing, don't blow it now. Lot of stocks way over valued. Just look at AMD. Couldn't find buyers at circa $107, and exploding.

I wish I was sharper but saw a chart this morning where they highlighted AMD/NVDA as way more overvalued than the market in 1999.

All my best bud. Appreciate your posts/insights.

Yeah, actually I own some in my IRA and right now I have a sell order in for most of that at $585. Still only a fraction of my overall, but I need to diversify a little. Just don't want to pay the tax on the regular holding. That stance has served me well through the ups and downs.

Edit: sale executed at $585. I'm already happily regretting it.

[Madison]

I'm getting tired of NVDA going up every day, week, month and year. Will it ever stop?

Take some profit. "nobody ever lost taking a profit". You've done amazing, don't blow it now. Lot of stocks way over valued. Just look at AMD. Couldn't find buyers at circa $107, and exploding.

I wish I was sharper but saw a chart this morning where they highlighted AMD/NVDA as way more overvalued than the market in 1999.

All my best bud. Appreciate your posts/insights.

[d2bets]

yes, i recall.

but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?

I'm getting tired of NVDA going up every day, week, month and year. Will it ever stop?

[Madison]

yes, i recall.

but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?

Simply watch the SP and 10yr correlation chart. Pretty compelling. If I was more inclined/comp savvy I'd post the chart, but this is what you get.

[homie1975]

^^^ As stated many months ago, watch the 10yr. Up nearly 30 BP as I write in the last 30 days.

yes, i recall.

but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?

[Madison]

^^^ As stated many months ago, watch the 10yr. Up nearly 30 BP as I write in the last 30 days.

[homie1975]

We also have a yield curve that has been inverted for roughly 1.5 years.

this is true, but the Bull Market climbs the Wall of Worry !

[guitarjosh]

JOSHer
We do have some tailwinds too, though.

Market performance historically after a 20%+ move up in the S&P (like 2023) yields positive results the following year (2024).

Election Years are historically good for the market especially Q3 and Q4 those years.

We also have a yield curve that has been inverted for roughly 1.5 years.

[homie1975]

Just more in a long line of bad news:

Empire State Manufacturing Index is at the 3rd lowest reading on record. The first 2 were April & May of 2020



The economy lost 1.5 million full time jobs last month. The last time we had less was January 2023.

JOSHer
We do have some tailwinds too, though.

Market performance historically after a 20%+ move up in the S&P (like 2023) yields positive results the following year (2024).

Election Years are historically good for the market especially Q3 and Q4 those years.

[homie1975]

yes there is definitely a negative sentiment in the air right now after the market euphoria of 2023 however Q4 earnings are about to report and they are very likely going to be blowout numbers combined with some cautious guidance so it feels like it will be a sideways trading market the next -3 mos.

[guitarjosh]

Yeah, cuts will happen, but very gradual and cautious. Partly because it isn't "needed". There is no need to go hold wild with cuts. The economy is doing fine. This is a good thing.

Just more in a long line of bad news:

Empire State Manufacturing Index is at the 3rd lowest reading on record. The first 2 were April & May of 2020



The economy lost 1.5 million full time jobs last month. The last time we had less was January 2023.

[d2bets]

FED's Waller statements released that Rate cuts should be well thought out and perhaps less in total basis points or total cuts, and the market reacts negatively.

Nothing system or of very much concern that I see.

I expect strong earnings reports for Q4 and forward guidance..........

Yeah, cuts will happen, but very gradual and cautious. Partly because it isn't "needed". There is no need to go hold wild with cuts. The economy is doing fine. This is a good thing.

[homie1975]

FED's Waller statements released that Rate cuts should be well thought out and perhaps less in total basis points or total cuts, and the market reacts negatively.

Nothing system or of very much concern that I see.

I expect strong earnings reports for Q4 and forward guidance..........

[Slurry Pumper]

stay with us Boys the Q4 2023 earnings are coming and it will spruce juice goose up the levels to ATH's and then some.................

Yeah, I agree, the market is almost too close to the high to not challenge the ATH. Like I stated a week ago, until the SPY closes the week below $460, I'm going to be in the bullish camp. Earnings is another good excuse to bump the tape for a little while here.

[homie1975]

stay with us Boys the Q4 2023 earnings are coming and it will spruce juice goose up the levels to ATH's and then some.................

[d2bets]

NVDA busting all-time highs again. The gift that keeps on giving. Does it end up badly or is NVDA taking over the world?

[Slurry Pumper]

Hi all, i've been tucked away lately taking it easy and staying away from the markets while my calls for the SPY make gains. Now that the year is new, I see a pullback to start the year. It's been a huge run up and now take profits and look for other opportunities. I think it will only be a little pullback, so until the SPY closes a weekly candle stick below $460ish, I'll be looking to go back to buying calls (1 to 2 months), under that and I'm on the melt down train for the longer (1 to 2 months) term. For this week, it will be daily buying of SPY and other related index PUTS that all expire Friday as I wait to see how much of a pullback situation we have. The closer the SPY and other related index funds get to $460, the more longer term calls I will buy.

[homie1975]

So many small caps getting into the best technicals setups to go higher. Should be a fun 2024

wide breadth of sectors all participating.

we are always aware of the black swan as she floats around at any time, but yes 2024 is setting up very nicely.

NAZZY still 6% away from ATH

[trobin31]

So many small caps getting into the best technicals setups to go higher. Should be a fun 2024

[homie1975]

"if you backtest it, new highs beget more highs" (paraphrasing)

- RoyBacon on SBR about 5 years ago here in this thread

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I do sometimes just ask the bank for $20 in coins. As to be expected, most of the time the silver-search is a dry-run.

Every ONCE in a while, you hit the mother-lode. If you can search ten rolls and find ONE silver coin, that's a good score.

Last year, I got a quarter roll. Couldn't believe it. 34 of 40 coins were 1964 and earlier, so 90% silver. Must have hit a retiree's coin-dump.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I was a fanatic numismatist (sp?). Had huge paper route in the 60's. Wasted it all on wine, women, and gambling. More sad stories.

A local dealer befriended me. He would buy huge (well to me at the time) bags of quarters, halves,dimes etc which I remember best. I would pick through thousands of coins, some near mint, and he would allow me to supplement my collection for the work. At one point I had a near mint/unc Washington quarter and Franklin half set. Can't bear to check what they're worth now.

Anyway, apologies for highjacking the thread. Back to reality.

That's good stuff. Yeah, if we only knew.

I have one card-collecting story from my youth. I'm embarrassed to even mention it.

That sounds like the old George Best quote: "I spent it on wine, women, and cars. The rest of it, I just pissed away."

[Madison]

Thank you. I will look at that. Always looking for more exposure to metals.

I have a small holding on SCCO. That copper stock has been solid for me.

You'll laugh. I do keep a box of copper pennies. Anytime I go to the bank I ask for a few rolls of pennies.

I think the stat = 14% of pennies in circulation are 1982 or earlier (so, copper-base). Metal value of copper-penny = 3x face. Great way to turn 50-cents into 64, LOL.

I was a fanatic numismatist (sp?). Had huge paper route in the 60's. Wasted it all on wine, women, and gambling. More sad stories.

A local dealer befriended me. He would buy huge (well to me at the time) bags of quarters, halves,dimes etc which I remember best. I would pick through thousands of coins, some near mint, and he would allow me to supplement my collection for the work. At one point I had a near mint/unc Washington quarter and Franklin half set. Can't bear to check what they're worth now.

Anyway, apologies for highjacking the thread. Back to reality.

[d2bets]

Within a whisper of the all-time closing high on the S&P 500. This week?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Keep an eye on copper. I think it was COPX I bought a few months ago. Nice surge of late.

Thank you. I will look at that. Always looking for more exposure to metals.

I have a small holding on SCCO. That copper stock has been solid for me.

You'll laugh. I do keep a box of copper pennies. Anytime I go to the bank I ask for a few rolls of pennies.

I think the stat = 14% of pennies in circulation are 1982 or earlier (so, copper-base). Metal value of copper-penny = 3x face. Great way to turn 50-cents into 64, LOL.

[Madison]

I'm still buying 90% Silver when I see a price of < 20x Face Value.

Seems so cheap to me. Gold Price rising. Silver/Gold ratio > 80:1, which seems insane.

Keep an eye on copper. I think it was COPX I bought a few months ago. Nice surge of late.