Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

We also have a yield curve that has been inverted for roughly 1.5 years.

this is true, but the Bull Market climbs the Wall of Worry !

[guitarjosh]

JOSHer
We do have some tailwinds too, though.

Market performance historically after a 20%+ move up in the S&P (like 2023) yields positive results the following year (2024).

Election Years are historically good for the market especially Q3 and Q4 those years.

We also have a yield curve that has been inverted for roughly 1.5 years.

[homie1975]

Just more in a long line of bad news:

Empire State Manufacturing Index is at the 3rd lowest reading on record. The first 2 were April & May of 2020



The economy lost 1.5 million full time jobs last month. The last time we had less was January 2023.

JOSHer
We do have some tailwinds too, though.

Market performance historically after a 20%+ move up in the S&P (like 2023) yields positive results the following year (2024).

Election Years are historically good for the market especially Q3 and Q4 those years.

[homie1975]

yes there is definitely a negative sentiment in the air right now after the market euphoria of 2023 however Q4 earnings are about to report and they are very likely going to be blowout numbers combined with some cautious guidance so it feels like it will be a sideways trading market the next -3 mos.

[guitarjosh]

Yeah, cuts will happen, but very gradual and cautious. Partly because it isn't "needed". There is no need to go hold wild with cuts. The economy is doing fine. This is a good thing.

Just more in a long line of bad news:

Empire State Manufacturing Index is at the 3rd lowest reading on record. The first 2 were April & May of 2020



The economy lost 1.5 million full time jobs last month. The last time we had less was January 2023.

[d2bets]

FED's Waller statements released that Rate cuts should be well thought out and perhaps less in total basis points or total cuts, and the market reacts negatively.

Nothing system or of very much concern that I see.

I expect strong earnings reports for Q4 and forward guidance..........

Yeah, cuts will happen, but very gradual and cautious. Partly because it isn't "needed". There is no need to go hold wild with cuts. The economy is doing fine. This is a good thing.

[homie1975]

FED's Waller statements released that Rate cuts should be well thought out and perhaps less in total basis points or total cuts, and the market reacts negatively.

Nothing system or of very much concern that I see.

I expect strong earnings reports for Q4 and forward guidance..........

[Slurry Pumper]

stay with us Boys the Q4 2023 earnings are coming and it will spruce juice goose up the levels to ATH's and then some.................

Yeah, I agree, the market is almost too close to the high to not challenge the ATH. Like I stated a week ago, until the SPY closes the week below $460, I'm going to be in the bullish camp. Earnings is another good excuse to bump the tape for a little while here.

[homie1975]

stay with us Boys the Q4 2023 earnings are coming and it will spruce juice goose up the levels to ATH's and then some.................

[d2bets]

NVDA busting all-time highs again. The gift that keeps on giving. Does it end up badly or is NVDA taking over the world?

[Slurry Pumper]

Hi all, i've been tucked away lately taking it easy and staying away from the markets while my calls for the SPY make gains. Now that the year is new, I see a pullback to start the year. It's been a huge run up and now take profits and look for other opportunities. I think it will only be a little pullback, so until the SPY closes a weekly candle stick below $460ish, I'll be looking to go back to buying calls (1 to 2 months), under that and I'm on the melt down train for the longer (1 to 2 months) term. For this week, it will be daily buying of SPY and other related index PUTS that all expire Friday as I wait to see how much of a pullback situation we have. The closer the SPY and other related index funds get to $460, the more longer term calls I will buy.

[homie1975]

So many small caps getting into the best technicals setups to go higher. Should be a fun 2024

wide breadth of sectors all participating.

we are always aware of the black swan as she floats around at any time, but yes 2024 is setting up very nicely.

NAZZY still 6% away from ATH

[trobin31]

So many small caps getting into the best technicals setups to go higher. Should be a fun 2024

[homie1975]

"if you backtest it, new highs beget more highs" (paraphrasing)

- RoyBacon on SBR about 5 years ago here in this thread

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I do sometimes just ask the bank for $20 in coins. As to be expected, most of the time the silver-search is a dry-run.

Every ONCE in a while, you hit the mother-lode. If you can search ten rolls and find ONE silver coin, that's a good score.

Last year, I got a quarter roll. Couldn't believe it. 34 of 40 coins were 1964 and earlier, so 90% silver. Must have hit a retiree's coin-dump.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I was a fanatic numismatist (sp?). Had huge paper route in the 60's. Wasted it all on wine, women, and gambling. More sad stories.

A local dealer befriended me. He would buy huge (well to me at the time) bags of quarters, halves,dimes etc which I remember best. I would pick through thousands of coins, some near mint, and he would allow me to supplement my collection for the work. At one point I had a near mint/unc Washington quarter and Franklin half set. Can't bear to check what they're worth now.

Anyway, apologies for highjacking the thread. Back to reality.

That's good stuff. Yeah, if we only knew.

I have one card-collecting story from my youth. I'm embarrassed to even mention it.

That sounds like the old George Best quote: "I spent it on wine, women, and cars. The rest of it, I just pissed away."

[Madison]

Thank you. I will look at that. Always looking for more exposure to metals.

I have a small holding on SCCO. That copper stock has been solid for me.

You'll laugh. I do keep a box of copper pennies. Anytime I go to the bank I ask for a few rolls of pennies.

I think the stat = 14% of pennies in circulation are 1982 or earlier (so, copper-base). Metal value of copper-penny = 3x face. Great way to turn 50-cents into 64, LOL.

I was a fanatic numismatist (sp?). Had huge paper route in the 60's. Wasted it all on wine, women, and gambling. More sad stories.

A local dealer befriended me. He would buy huge (well to me at the time) bags of quarters, halves,dimes etc which I remember best. I would pick through thousands of coins, some near mint, and he would allow me to supplement my collection for the work. At one point I had a near mint/unc Washington quarter and Franklin half set. Can't bear to check what they're worth now.

Anyway, apologies for highjacking the thread. Back to reality.

[d2bets]

Within a whisper of the all-time closing high on the S&P 500. This week?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Keep an eye on copper. I think it was COPX I bought a few months ago. Nice surge of late.

Thank you. I will look at that. Always looking for more exposure to metals.

I have a small holding on SCCO. That copper stock has been solid for me.

You'll laugh. I do keep a box of copper pennies. Anytime I go to the bank I ask for a few rolls of pennies.

I think the stat = 14% of pennies in circulation are 1982 or earlier (so, copper-base). Metal value of copper-penny = 3x face. Great way to turn 50-cents into 64, LOL.

[Madison]

I'm still buying 90% Silver when I see a price of < 20x Face Value.

Seems so cheap to me. Gold Price rising. Silver/Gold ratio > 80:1, which seems insane.

Keep an eye on copper. I think it was COPX I bought a few months ago. Nice surge of late.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm still buying 90% Silver when I see a price of < 20x Face Value.

Seems so cheap to me. Gold Price rising. Silver/Gold ratio > 80:1, which seems insane.

[Slurry Pumper]

I love it when I'm right and I said this rally would probably continue until that Fat ass in the red coat comes to town. Well that happened, and now the market is so bloated, that I think this is a blow off top in action here. I plan to ride the bullishness and only a definite turn will take me off the gas here. I've been winning on a weekly basis now for the last couple of months and a 1 week loss where I continue to pile money into calls is just the cost of doing business at this point. Only then will I consider changing my overall stance on the market situation.

[risKingDigits]

Sol, up 688% on the year!

[homie1975]

Funny!! Have a great holiday season!!

Merry Christmas, Madder!

[Madison]

Funny!! Have a great holiday season!!

[homie1975]

[Madison]

Don't get me wrong. I wish the best for all. I'm just posting data and all can do or not as you see.

[Madison]

A record number of students defaulting ... ???

Nearly 9 million student loan borrowers defaulting on payments despite 3-year pause (msn.com)

[Madison]

A record number of students defaulting ... ???

[d2bets]

Mr. Market keeps powering forward. Don't fight the tape.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Full article can be found at Stansberry. The answer , as I've offered before is INFLATION. Let's all be hopefull it doesn't rear its ugly head again. See the National Debt answer.

Madison, I won't pretend to be a great economist. But I'll present my view on things:

1) I think Inflation will continue. To the extent that we view Inflation = purchasing power. US govt prints USD, they create a fat supply. Prices go up. One can afford fewer items at the grocery store.

2) US Debt ratio is now too high. Have to service the debt. Interest on the debt exceeds the US tax income. USA is insolvent.

3) What does the USA produce? In particular, what types of jobs do young Americans get into? IMHO, a productive economy makes things and repairs things. I don't see that. And I don't see the young American as being an ambitious worker.

4) USA becames a credit economy after the monetary decisions in 1965 and 1971. American companies report their annual statements in USD denominations. OK, from what year? If the underlying USD value is much less solid, then the Annual Statement as a whole should be questioned.

5) The USD has been used in trade for a long time. What if the USD is no longer readily accepted in trade? That's a game-changer. Ties back to the USA coming off the gold standard. Foreign countries will now look for hard assets.

I know i'm rambling. Just my thoughts.

[d2bets]

There's another hundred stories, but if this doesn't scare you I don't know. Is the answer Mom & Dad, and the basement??

“Within the last six months, nearly half of Americans (47%) say the amount of money they’re saving has gone down,” said the authors. “Right now, more than half of Americans (52%) estimate they have less than $2,000 in savings or none at all.”

Is there a comp for this? How does this compare to past years? I think this is pretty much always the case.

[Madison]

There's another hundred stories, but if this doesn't scare you I don't know. Is the answer Mom & Dad, and the basement??

“Within the last six months, nearly half of Americans (47%) say the amount of money they’re saving has gone down,” said the authors. “Right now, more than half of Americans (52%) estimate they have less than $2,000 in savings or none at all.”

[Madison]

So many questions and so few answers. Anyone want to assist?

Fact 1 (Bear)

M2 or total money supply (cash and checking accounts)is contracting for the first time in 74 years. Each time this has happened,dating back to the Civil War, double-digit unemployment and a depression havefollowed.

Fact? 2 (Bull)

Everywhere I turn all I hear is about the 6 Trillion that's sitting on the sidelines, supposedly in MM making 5% ++ just waiting to buy stocks. Well MM's are included in M2 so where is the truth? If there really is 6T on the sidelines and it's being counted as part of M2 the aforementioned Bull statement above is REALLY troubling. No?

Full article can be found at Stansberry. The answer , as I've offered before is INFLATION. Let's all be hopefull it doesn't rear its ugly head again. See the National Debt answer.

[Madison]

Stocks aren't my thing but COINhttps://www.fool.com/investing/2023/...-boom-or-bust/

Sick I sold mine circa $50, GBTC circa 15K, and almost rebought MARA and RIOT circa 2-3$. SICK.