Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (DNA)

Cathie Wood's purchase of 731,000 shares of DNA on Jan. 17 of this year for inclusion in ARKK caught the eye of many investors. When she followed that up by buying an additional 755,000 shares for the fund two days later, interest in this unique company began to climb.
DNA utilizes advanced gene splicing and gene editing techniques to literally reprogram the cells of organisms and produce useful and beneficial products. The applications of its technology ranges from novel therapeutics for humans and animals to enhancing food ingredients to helping develop clean energy sources.

Their customers are pharmaceutical companies, the agricultural industry, energy companies, chemical manufactures and food processing firms.
With her recent purchases, Cathie Wood's ARKK holds more than 124 million shares of DNA valued at just over $154 million. DNA represents 2% of that $9.3 billion ETF.

[Slurry Pumper]

So far it looks like a little divergence between the QQQs and the SPY is going on. How about those small and mid caps or the IWM which is my favorite market indicator. Once again we'll start with the 2 Year chart with Weekly candles.

You can see that the IWM has been in a battle to reach the 200 level for the last couple of years. It eclipsed that level just a few weeks ago to give its backers a nice Christmas gift only to witness a pretty nice break down for 3 weeks before trying to eclipse the 200 level pretty much all of last week. It couldn't do it but it has yet to break down. That's yet another level to look for next week as 200 on the IWM will be an important indicator of what is to come.

What the hell lets take a gander and the IWM 5 Year chart with monthly candles.



You can see the IWM has been range bound for the better part of the last 2 years now with 200 being the top and around 165 as the bottom. Recently in Nov and Dec there was a large break up candle that went all the way to the 200 level then in Jan so far (still 2 days until it closes) there was a pullback and a little recovery. This means the jury is still out and we'll have to wait and see what happens here. Stochastic line are pretty far apart and point up which is good, MACD isn't in the extreme, and the 20 period moving average isn't too far away from home base.

OK time for a break and a beer or 2. I'll be back with yet more crap in an attempt to monopolize and entire page of charts that will take you a while to scroll through.

[Slurry Pumper]

The SPY 2 Year chart with weekly candles

OK over on the SPY things look a little toppy in my opinion, but I will point out that the signals of a change in direction aren't as pronounced. Sure there is that 20 period moving average thing with the stochastics and MACD situation going on. We also have a little market symmetry going on perhaps as this week is the end of a 13 week cycle after a previous 13 week cycle where the direction was predominately down. Just another layer to add the the stack of signals. Its been a great run since that day I told you all to buy and wait. You know me, I never do that, but in late October last year, that is exactly what I did.


Moving into the SPY 5 Year chart with monthly candle closes shows an area that disproves my theory as there is a 20 period moving average pretty far away from the price, overbought stachastics, and a extreme MACD condition. It kept that going for quite a few months before turning south so currently we are in the same condition but its only been a couple of months, and this chart isn't showing any signs of a change. This just proves that all indicators are not absolute and a little interpretation is needed. That's a layer of stuff in the bullish camp to put on the table. Also the SPY is above the highest high of all time and taking a look at the nice round number of 500. The markets like nice big round numbers and the closer the action gets to them the more magnetic they become.

Well with things looking so rosy on the SPY, lets take a gander on what been happening for the last week on the 5 Day chart with hourly closes.

The SPY was asleep for the first couple of days before taking a gap up open on Wednesday only to give most of it back by the end of the day. Then on Thursday it did pretty much the same thing. Finally on Friday the market started creeping up, but once it hit that 489ish level as it did for the previous 2 days, it stalled and couldn't finish the week above that level. So there you have it for next week the 1st level the SPY needs to eclipse and stay above for the bullish behavior to continue in my opinion. If the SPY can't break above 489 and keep it for a daily close, that would be a signal of a top. Not a huge signal of a crash or anything just a little signal of difficulty rising above. Remember we have that 500 that is so close by and above 490 things will quickly get to the 500 mark. We have the FED coming out next week to lie to us along with earnings coming from some big players. Anything remotely good, or even slightly less bad than expected will move the market in a direction that it wants to go which I have to say is up at this point.

[Slurry Pumper]

Please don't even get me started with the national debt situation. Every time I look at that it just steers me to by more chunks of gold for my degenerate kids. Its better than giving them money as they just can't go spend a 5 or 10 oz chunk of it that easy. 1st they have to convert it then go waste it.
Anyway this post may be one of the all time longest, but its been a while since I really broke down the charts so here we go.
This time we will start with the Nasdaq (QQQ) and check out the 2 year chart with weekly candles.


The yellow lines represent where the price action moved pretty far away from the 20 period moving average (orange line). I like to call the 20 period moving average as home base, and price action doesn't keep moving away from the 20 period moving average for that long. If you look at the arrows each time the price got away from the moving average, either price comes back to the average or the price just hangs out and lets the moving average catch up to the price before making a further move.
This week the Q's made a doji, or what some people call a graveyard doji candle which can be a signal of a direction change. Take a look at them stochastic lines which have been in the overbought zone for a while now. That in itself isn't a big deal as it can be there for quite a while as indicated just last year when they stayed there from March until August last year. If however the MACD is also in this area which it is, it is another signal of a change in direction. Finally, for this chart anyways, take a look at that dashed yellow line right where the doji candle is located. This tread line has been holding steady as either resistance or support for more than a year now. That doesn' really mean anything, but it is a piece to take note of.

Expanding out to the 5 Year chart with Monthly candles, shows the phenomenon of the 20 period moving average again, with an example of how the stochastic lines can be in the overbought zone for quite a while, but when we have a stochastic in the overbought or oversold condition with the MACD in the extremes along with a price that is pretty far away from the 20 period moving average, the price direction reverses or atleast hangs out and waits for the 20 period moving average to catch up.
Moving on to the SMH 2 Year chart with weekly candles which is touted as a proxy for the Nasdaq shows a similar chart to the QQQs as one might expect for a so called proxy.




In this case we see where the price moved once again away from the 20 Period moving average with the stochastic lines being overbought for a while as the 20 period moving average moved closer to the price along with the MACD as shown by #1. In this case price waited around and didn't change direction, but also al l3 criteria where anot satisfied. Price was not far away from the 20 period moving average, the stochastics where overbought and the MACD was close to the extreme. In this case 2 outta 3 doesn't cut it to tease a RIP Meatloaf song.

OK, enough of the Daq, lets move onto the SPY 2 Year Weekly chart but break it up into another post.

[Madison]

If you want to prick Madison's nerves then speak to the National Debt. The only way out is inflation and kiss your hard earned $$ goodbye. How many foreign countries, last I read Turkey 65% inflation. I'm very sad that this is what I'm passing along to my grandkids.

A debt of $34 trillion is more than the combined GDP of the top five global economies after the U.S. — China ($17.9 trillion), Japan ($4.2 trillion), Germany ($4.0 trillion), India ($3.4 trillion) and the United Kingdom ($3.0 trillion) — according to the World Bank.Total U.S. debt has more than doubled since 2013 and is up nearly $3 trillion since the government suspended the debt ceiling in June — averting what would have been a first-ever default with just two days to spare.

[Slurry Pumper]

i have been hearing this the last 13 mos all over the place Slurry and all i have seen is Up Up Up Up Up

don't fight the tape.

i don't. you should not either.

I never fight the tape, but I do read the tape, and I'm letting all the folks know that I am going to be right near the exit door for anything that should turn. I've told ya'll when the rally started last fall, and even gave the spot, now this weekend I'll be back with the tape as I read it so we can all just ride the markets. They don't just always go up or down. Sure today we got great numbers and we had a great up day again. All I'm saying is that this rally is getting long in the tooth and maybe the signs and signals are there to maybe take a little pause in the exuberance to see where things are at. I will give my case and let the cards fall where they may.

[guitarjosh]

Courtesy ... Investor Place

Since World War II, there havebeen 13 previous bull markets. On average, they have lasted more than 1,700days with average stock gains of about 150%.
The current bull market is less than 470 days old with gains of less than 35%.
Judging by historical standards, this new bull market has a lot more runwayahead of it, both in terms of time and gains.

The 3 month 10 year spread has been inverted for 15 straight months today. The Fed announced yesterday the BTFP is going away in March, we'll see what happens.

[Br00ks85]

buy nintendo immediately, and hold for next years as it over takes disney.



Switch 2 will be announced soon so get in before that happens.

[homie1975]

Courtesy ... Investor Place

Since World War II, there havebeen 13 previous bull markets. On average, they have lasted more than 1,700days with average stock gains of about 150%.
The current bull market is less than 470 days old with gains of less than 35%.
Judging by historical standards, this new bull market has a lot more runwayahead of it, both in terms of time and gains.

MADder you said it.

don't fight the tape, no matter how much one hates the POTUS and wants a change, the stock market will do what the stock market will do and it is way more tied to Other things than it is the POTUS.

don't.

fight.

the.

tape.

[Madison]

Courtesy ... Investor Place

Since World War II, there havebeen 13 previous bull markets. On average, they have lasted more than 1,700days with average stock gains of about 150%.
The current bull market is less than 470 days old with gains of less than 35%.
Judging by historical standards, this new bull market has a lot more runwayahead of it, both in terms of time and gains.

[homie1975]

Hey yall,

While I haven't been postin much, I have been playing the markets just like I always do. I thin kwe are at a point where a turn in the tape is in order real soon, or maybe even today with the gap and crap situation. I think going into the rest of the month and probably a week or so afterwards the markets on the hole are headed lower. I'm not saying that the market is going to crash and burn, but looking at my favorite indicators show me that the markets are starting to get pretty far away from the home base (20 period moving average), the transports are also telling me that things are not advantageous to gains, and some other things.

i have been hearing this the last 13 mos all over the place Slurry and all i have seen is Up Up Up Up Up

don't fight the tape.

i don't. you should not either.

[Slurry Pumper]

Hey yall,

While I haven't been postin much, I have been playing the markets just like I always do. I thin kwe are at a point where a turn in the tape is in order real soon, or maybe even today with the gap and crap situation. I think going into the rest of the month and probably a week or so afterwards the markets on the hole are headed lower. I'm not saying that the market is going to crash and burn, but looking at my favorite indicators show me that the markets are starting to get pretty far away from the home base (20 period moving average), the transports are also telling me that things are not advantageous to gains, and some other things.

[homie1975]

**** = mbly ... Lidar

MADder whaaaaaa ???

[Madison]

notable earnings this week:





tue: Jnj, rtx, lmt, nflx, p&g, vz, 3m, ge, ti, db horton


weds: At&t, abt labs, tesla!, ibm, now, lam research


thurs: Unp, shw, intc, ****, pypl


fri: Axp, nfs

**** = mbly ... Lidar

[homie1975]

Notable earnings this week:


Tue: JnJ, RTX, LMT, NFLX, P&G, VZ, 3M, GE, TI, DB Horton


Weds: AT&T, ABT Labs, Tesla!, IBM, NOW, LAM Research


Thurs: UNP, SHW, INTC, ****, PYPL


Fri: AXP, NFS

[homie1975]

Go go go

[homie1975]

Yeah, I mean overall that was less than 15% of my holdings. With recent life changes, it turns out NVDA now even after this is like 25% of my net worth.

2er
it's about 2% of my net worth

so if it cuts in half it only affects 1% of my net worth

if it cuts in half it affects 12.5% of yours.

that is too much for my comfort.

look up the Four Horsemen stocks of the late 90's and early 2000's in case you did not know them or might have forgotten (like I did).

they ran the market at that time like the Magnificent 7 do now.

DELL
CISCO
INTEL
MICROSOFT

only 1 out of the 4 is still a monster today.

be careful Mate.

[d2bets]

Don't. Flag 585. You can always buy back. You did the smart thing. Congrats on a great trade/investment!!!

Yeah, I mean overall that was less than 15% of my holdings. With recent life changes, it turns out NVDA now even after this is like 25% of my net worth.

[Madison]

There's a lot of 10x potential out there. IONQ, SYM, CRSP, DNA. Genetics and robotic's is the future. BOL!!

[Madison]

Yeah, actually I own some in my IRA and right now I have a sell order in for most of that at $585. Still only a fraction of my overall, but I need to diversify a little. Just don't want to pay the tax on the regular holding. That stance has served me well through the ups and downs.

Edit: sale executed at $585. I'm already happily regretting it.

Don't. Flag 585. You can always buy back. You did the smart thing. Congrats on a great trade/investment!!!

[d2bets]

Take some profit. "nobody ever lost taking a profit". You've done amazing, don't blow it now. Lot of stocks way over valued. Just look at AMD. Couldn't find buyers at circa $107, and exploding.

I wish I was sharper but saw a chart this morning where they highlighted AMD/NVDA as way more overvalued than the market in 1999.

All my best bud. Appreciate your posts/insights.

Yeah, actually I own some in my IRA and right now I have a sell order in for most of that at $585. Still only a fraction of my overall, but I need to diversify a little. Just don't want to pay the tax on the regular holding. That stance has served me well through the ups and downs.

Edit: sale executed at $585. I'm already happily regretting it.

[Madison]

I'm getting tired of NVDA going up every day, week, month and year. Will it ever stop?

Take some profit. "nobody ever lost taking a profit". You've done amazing, don't blow it now. Lot of stocks way over valued. Just look at AMD. Couldn't find buyers at circa $107, and exploding.

I wish I was sharper but saw a chart this morning where they highlighted AMD/NVDA as way more overvalued than the market in 1999.

All my best bud. Appreciate your posts/insights.

[d2bets]

yes, i recall.

but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?

I'm getting tired of NVDA going up every day, week, month and year. Will it ever stop?

[Madison]

yes, i recall.

but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?

Simply watch the SP and 10yr correlation chart. Pretty compelling. If I was more inclined/comp savvy I'd post the chart, but this is what you get.

[homie1975]

^^^ As stated many months ago, watch the 10yr. Up nearly 30 BP as I write in the last 30 days.

yes, i recall.

but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?

[Madison]

^^^ As stated many months ago, watch the 10yr. Up nearly 30 BP as I write in the last 30 days.

[homie1975]

We also have a yield curve that has been inverted for roughly 1.5 years.

this is true, but the Bull Market climbs the Wall of Worry !

[guitarjosh]

JOSHer
We do have some tailwinds too, though.

Market performance historically after a 20%+ move up in the S&P (like 2023) yields positive results the following year (2024).

Election Years are historically good for the market especially Q3 and Q4 those years.

We also have a yield curve that has been inverted for roughly 1.5 years.

[homie1975]

Just more in a long line of bad news:

Empire State Manufacturing Index is at the 3rd lowest reading on record. The first 2 were April & May of 2020



The economy lost 1.5 million full time jobs last month. The last time we had less was January 2023.

JOSHer
We do have some tailwinds too, though.

Market performance historically after a 20%+ move up in the S&P (like 2023) yields positive results the following year (2024).

Election Years are historically good for the market especially Q3 and Q4 those years.

[homie1975]

yes there is definitely a negative sentiment in the air right now after the market euphoria of 2023 however Q4 earnings are about to report and they are very likely going to be blowout numbers combined with some cautious guidance so it feels like it will be a sideways trading market the next -3 mos.

[guitarjosh]

Yeah, cuts will happen, but very gradual and cautious. Partly because it isn't "needed". There is no need to go hold wild with cuts. The economy is doing fine. This is a good thing.

Just more in a long line of bad news:

Empire State Manufacturing Index is at the 3rd lowest reading on record. The first 2 were April & May of 2020



The economy lost 1.5 million full time jobs last month. The last time we had less was January 2023.

[d2bets]

FED's Waller statements released that Rate cuts should be well thought out and perhaps less in total basis points or total cuts, and the market reacts negatively.

Nothing system or of very much concern that I see.

I expect strong earnings reports for Q4 and forward guidance..........

Yeah, cuts will happen, but very gradual and cautious. Partly because it isn't "needed". There is no need to go hold wild with cuts. The economy is doing fine. This is a good thing.

[homie1975]

FED's Waller statements released that Rate cuts should be well thought out and perhaps less in total basis points or total cuts, and the market reacts negatively.

Nothing system or of very much concern that I see.

I expect strong earnings reports for Q4 and forward guidance..........

[Slurry Pumper]

stay with us Boys the Q4 2023 earnings are coming and it will spruce juice goose up the levels to ATH's and then some.................

Yeah, I agree, the market is almost too close to the high to not challenge the ATH. Like I stated a week ago, until the SPY closes the week below $460, I'm going to be in the bullish camp. Earnings is another good excuse to bump the tape for a little while here.

[homie1975]

stay with us Boys the Q4 2023 earnings are coming and it will spruce juice goose up the levels to ATH's and then some.................