Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Chiefs83]

Feel like everything is too high now to buy…how much higher can it go..
Gotta sit out till prices go down

[Slurry Pumper]

Well yesterday's IWM short play didn't work out. I still see a pullback coming, but now I reset my entry points to be SPY $453.70, QQQ $388.50, IWM $179.20, XLF $35.00.
I'm still in the rally up mode for the X-MAS Season. We are just at a point that requires a profit taking pullback so the play is bullish until those numbers are hit, then I flip the script and go with the PUTS. Everything is done with Friday expirations, the timeliness are short which magnify the returns. Unfortunately they also magnify the losses to. Yesterday was a loser which is bad but usually winners are a 2 to 3 time winner so a 33% win rate means the money is being made.

[homie1975]

GOVT will avert a shutdown. more fuel.......

[trobin31]

Things are continuing to set up nicely for a China trade, Winnie the Pooh is coming to San Francisco, so a trade deal maybe in the works? Yuan looks bottomed, China just pumped cash into their economy the past year while Fed has been taking US consumers to wood shed, and, seasonality is its best going into Chinese new year.

I really like a variety of plays but I took some bites on YINN JD and NIU

[Slurry Pumper]

Ok we're off and running this morning. I'm willing to buy PUTS when $451 comes around for SPY, $388.50 for you QQQtech players. $177.20 for IWM ( ITS right there now).

[d2bets]

Small caps starting to participate so rally is broadening out. IWM to mid 180s seems reasonable if this holds.

Wait for the memes to start popping off and that’s when everything usually fizzles out

Russell 2000 currently +4.42% today. JHC

[trobin31]

Small caps starting to participate so rally is broadening out. IWM to mid 180s seems reasonable if this holds.

Wait for the memes to start popping off and that’s when everything usually fizzles out

[Slurry Pumper]

I think it may be a gap and crap. We'll see in a few minutes

[Chiefs83]

I just sold a lot in Premarket… SYM skyrocketing

[d2bets]

Monthly CPI 0.0. Markets set for epic rally.

[trobin31]

The yuan and Chinese stocks look bottomed so swinging at YINN & BABA

[Slurry Pumper]

I think we have a pullback this week. Starting tomorrow on Turn Around Tuesday. Soon everyone will be in the sky is falling camp, but in reality, markets will make a higher low maybe not before the end of the week, but eventually in the coming days.

[homie1975]

Forcast for the week anyone?

sideways after last week's euphoria

[Chiefs83]

Forcast for the week anyone?

[trobin31]

Would be nice to see a little consolidation here. Expecting some news to curb the enthusiasm this weekend. Watching crypto over weekend to gauge

[trobin31]

Biggest threat right now is how things will shape up in Middle East. we’ve seen this movie before, but this time seems different. If Israel goes full scale this could unite several countries to the Palestinian cause and send oil and inflation back higher. Theres a case for several years of commodity and energy supply tightening if US relationships break down in Middle East. At the end of the day, these are Muslims, and they won’t sit by very long watching Palestinians get annihilated at this scale so quickly, maybe if it’s a slow burn like it’s been for past few decades, then that’s okay and they don’t feel need to intervene. Anywho, All this is bad for inflation if not tamed. I will be hedging w bets on energy, especially oil & uranium as this rally likely continues through Ramadan/holidays but after that I am worried what is next shoe to drop.

[homie1975]

Would you be shocked if that was topped before year-end? I wouldn't.

i would be extremely surprised.

[d2bets]

SPX only 7.3% off the high of 12/31/21 which was 4766.

Would you be shocked if that was topped before year-end? I wouldn't.

[homie1975]

Now that was a rip your face off rally. It will not surprise me if they Santa Claus rally is in effect this year. If the Fed is done and has achieved the soft landing, off she runs. Don't forget, even after today the S&P still almost 10% off the Jan 2021 highs, and the smaller caps far more than that.

SPX only 7.3% off the high of 12/31/21 which was 4766.

[d2bets]

memo to the masses:

the melt up continues, no matter how much anyone likes or dislikes it.

the bull market climbs the wall of worry.

macro geopolitical BS cannot stop it.

opinions about politics cannot stop it.

invest accordingly, or risk getting your A$$ handed to you.

friends of mine who hate the people running the USA right now, played a bunch of PUTS and they are getting their shitt crammed up their assses.

serves them right.

it is okay to be stupid. it is Not okay to be ignorant.

GO MARKET GO

Now that was a rip your face off rally. It will not surprise me if they Santa Claus rally is in effect this year. If the Fed is done and has achieved the soft landing, off she runs. Don't forget, even after today the S&P still almost 10% off the Jan 2021 highs, and the smaller caps far more than that.

[homie1975]

Just seems like we are due for big down move soon.

based on what? your feelings? based on what data? based o what empirical data?

you will go broke thinking like that.

when everyone is thinking ONE WAY, GO THE OTHER WAY

[homie1975]

memo to the masses:

the melt up continues, no matter how much anyone likes or dislikes it.

the bull market climbs the wall of worry.

macro geopolitical BS cannot stop it.

opinions about politics cannot stop it.

invest accordingly, or risk getting your A$$ handed to you.

friends of mine who hate the people running the USA right now, played a bunch of PUTS and they are getting their shitt crammed up their assses.

serves them right.

it is okay to be stupid. it is Not okay to be ignorant.

GO MARKET GO

[Slurry Pumper]

$433.40 on the SPY is pretty close to my $443.20 spot for a bounce. So far I would just call this a spot for a blip or daytrade chance. Not technically a daytrade as this started yesterday at around 3:00 PM, but if I sell at 10 this morning, I've really only held the option for 2 hours of trading time, so I consider it a day trade. It may turn into more today if the markets just start to run here, or give it up and go for the gap fill situation at the $430.90 spot. I like the gap fill better, but it may not get there before we resume the uphill climb. There is allot of bearish plays out there, and when they start covering, it will be a pretty big run. Maybe not as good as the last 35 -40 point run up a week ago, but those are pretty rare.

[Enkhbat]

Which state are you in Chucky? I didn't realize donuts were that expensive.

I am thinking about buying some VIX call options exprining before the new year, it just feels like there will be a spike soon.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One other anecdotal comment: *I think the Inflation >>> Hyper-Inflation is going faster than people think:

1) Check out the prices in your Soft Drink aisle.
...Those prices have gone up +50% in the L12 months.

2) Had an urge for two Jelly donuts from Dunkin.
...Hadn't had one in ages. $2.12 per donut - GTFOH.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Down 30% overnight to $21. I have traded this guy when it was circa $50. I thought quite highly of the company but the price was an aberration. Thinking of dipping back in at the open.

Anyone have any thoughts here?

Thx again to guys like Madison. I'm always looking for critical thinking.

Madison, I've been doing the same thing we discussed:
1) Slowly di-vesting some of the Index Funds and tech-stocks.
2) Buying the dip on MSTR/GBTC and a few metal stocks.

Looking at the screen today: Giddyup.

[Madison]

Miners in general are in this oversold boat. I concur with the lithium play, but caution against the small players in this field. Of course that is not ALB, as they have established facilities.
I just got back from the South American areas that are doing this mining, and I can say the governments are clamping down on smaller facilities that may not be producing within the regulating guidelines that are laid out. I don't have a list of violators, but just tossing that out there because about 125% of the cost to produce lithium is the process.

Much appreciated Slurry!!

One note here is to add attention to the "Chile Crash" back this spring. I killed the bounce after the overreaction. I believe ALB has contractual mining rights in Chile through 2046. I'll be long gone by then.

[Madison]

Upstart UPST

Down 30% overnight to $21. I have traded this guy when it was circa $50. I thought quite highly of the company but the price was an aberration. Thinking of dipping back in at the open.

Anyone have any thoughts here?

[Slurry Pumper]

ALB and other Lithium related stocks and the commodity itself have plummeted to WAY oversold. You can track the resurgence via ALB. Start building a position now!!!

After Earnings, Is Albemarle Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued? | Morningstar

Miners in general are in this oversold boat. I concur with the lithium play, but caution against the small players in this field. Of course that is not ALB, as they have established facilities.
I just got back from the South American areas that are doing this mining, and I can say the governments are clamping down on smaller facilities that may not be producing within the regulating guidelines that are laid out. I don't have a list of violators, but just tossing that out there because about 125% of the cost to produce lithium is the process.

[Madison]

NOW is the time ..

ALB and other Lithium related stocks and the commodity itself have plummeted to WAY oversold. You can track the resurgence via ALB. Start building a position now!!!

After Earnings, Is Albemarle Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued? | Morningstar

[Slurry Pumper]

Alright after 7 days of just going up, from the spot on the SPY I identified for you all, it may be time for a slight pullback here. Looking for the 50DMA $433.20ish as support, and the gap fill of $430.90ish. On the off chance the bull flag works, the 100 DMA $439ish isn't going to be much of a resistance if reached.

[homie1975]

The Tell


Fed likely to cut rates below 3%, making bonds attractive now, Guggenheim says

Published: Nov. 6, 2023 at 6:15 p.m. ET

[veriableodds]

New it was a fakeout…SYM getting crushed

You may like this dense diverse tech/AI etf. Monthly on the div with a just under 11%apy(AIO)
Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund (AIO) Holdings (seekingalpha.com)

[Chiefs83]

I understand I added a couple shares at 34.88 earlier

[Madison]

New it was a fakeout…SYM getting crushed

We are not day trading SYM. This a "build a strong position" slowly but for the mid term (next 5 years).