Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

[Madison]

Don't get me wrong. I wish the best for all. I'm just posting data and all can do or not as you see.

[Madison]

A record number of students defaulting ... ???

Nearly 9 million student loan borrowers defaulting on payments despite 3-year pause (msn.com)

[Madison]

A record number of students defaulting ... ???

[d2bets]

Mr. Market keeps powering forward. Don't fight the tape.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Full article can be found at Stansberry. The answer , as I've offered before is INFLATION. Let's all be hopefull it doesn't rear its ugly head again. See the National Debt answer.

Madison, I won't pretend to be a great economist. But I'll present my view on things:

1) I think Inflation will continue. To the extent that we view Inflation = purchasing power. US govt prints USD, they create a fat supply. Prices go up. One can afford fewer items at the grocery store.

2) US Debt ratio is now too high. Have to service the debt. Interest on the debt exceeds the US tax income. USA is insolvent.

3) What does the USA produce? In particular, what types of jobs do young Americans get into? IMHO, a productive economy makes things and repairs things. I don't see that. And I don't see the young American as being an ambitious worker.

4) USA becames a credit economy after the monetary decisions in 1965 and 1971. American companies report their annual statements in USD denominations. OK, from what year? If the underlying USD value is much less solid, then the Annual Statement as a whole should be questioned.

5) The USD has been used in trade for a long time. What if the USD is no longer readily accepted in trade? That's a game-changer. Ties back to the USA coming off the gold standard. Foreign countries will now look for hard assets.

I know i'm rambling. Just my thoughts.

[d2bets]

There's another hundred stories, but if this doesn't scare you I don't know. Is the answer Mom & Dad, and the basement??

“Within the last six months, nearly half of Americans (47%) say the amount of money they’re saving has gone down,” said the authors. “Right now, more than half of Americans (52%) estimate they have less than $2,000 in savings or none at all.”

Is there a comp for this? How does this compare to past years? I think this is pretty much always the case.

[Madison]

There's another hundred stories, but if this doesn't scare you I don't know. Is the answer Mom & Dad, and the basement??

“Within the last six months, nearly half of Americans (47%) say the amount of money they’re saving has gone down,” said the authors. “Right now, more than half of Americans (52%) estimate they have less than $2,000 in savings or none at all.”

[Madison]

So many questions and so few answers. Anyone want to assist?

Fact 1 (Bear)

M2 or total money supply (cash and checking accounts)is contracting for the first time in 74 years. Each time this has happened,dating back to the Civil War, double-digit unemployment and a depression havefollowed.

Fact? 2 (Bull)

Everywhere I turn all I hear is about the 6 Trillion that's sitting on the sidelines, supposedly in MM making 5% ++ just waiting to buy stocks. Well MM's are included in M2 so where is the truth? If there really is 6T on the sidelines and it's being counted as part of M2 the aforementioned Bull statement above is REALLY troubling. No?

Full article can be found at Stansberry. The answer , as I've offered before is INFLATION. Let's all be hopefull it doesn't rear its ugly head again. See the National Debt answer.

[Madison]

Stocks aren't my thing but COINhttps://www.fool.com/investing/2023/...-boom-or-bust/

Sick I sold mine circa $50, GBTC circa 15K, and almost rebought MARA and RIOT circa 2-3$. SICK.

[Madison]

So many questions and so few answers. Anyone want to assist?

Fact 1 (Bear)

M2 or total money supply (cash and checking accounts)is contracting for the first time in 74 years. Each time this has happened,dating back to the Civil War, double-digit unemployment and a depression havefollowed.

Fact? 2 (Bull)

Everywhere I turn all I hear is about the 6 Trillion that's sitting on the sidelines, supposedly in MM making 5% ++ just waiting to buy stocks. Well MM's are included in M2 so where is the truth? If there really is 6T on the sidelines and it's being counted as part of M2 the aforementioned Bull statement above is REALLY troubling. No?

[raiders72001]

Stocks aren't my thing but COIN

The approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds will be a win for Coinbase because the company is listed as a custodian for a lot of these products, including BlackRock. This could put Coinbase in a better standing with regulators.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/...-boom-or-bust/

[homie1975]

All my best bro to you and yours. Just not sure about your FOMO outlook?? The consumer and employment will tell all. Just beware when that sentiment starts heading south.

MADder my Dude!

Good health to you Always!

Bull markets always go through corrections.

We will see what happens.

Nov 2021 thru Dec 2022 were hellish to the downside, no doubt about it.

but look at us now.

new ATH's coming across the 3 indexes.

Nazzy still has 7.75% left to go to touch the ATH of $16,050 back in Nov 2021.

and guess what? QQQ is at an all time high even though the Nazzy is not !

it is time to celebrate some of the wins............

[guitarjosh]

to quote the former poster who hopefully returns (RoyBacon):

"if you backtest it, when we hit new highs we tend to make newer highs".

lots and lots of people have FOMO right now.

the retail investors (30% of the market) and BEARS have joined in the euphoria.

that is driving us up up up

And that is a real big problem.

[Madison]

to quote the former poster who hopefully returns (RoyBacon):

"if you backtest it, when we hit new highs we tend to make newer highs".

lots and lots of people have FOMO right now.

the retail investors (30% of the market) and BEARS have joined in the euphoria.

that is driving us up up up

All my best bro to you and yours. Just not sure about your FOMO outlook?? The consumer and employment will tell all. Just beware when that sentiment starts heading south.

[homie1975]

to quote the former poster who hopefully returns (RoyBacon):

"if you backtest it, when we hit new highs we tend to make newer highs".

lots and lots of people have FOMO right now.

the retail investors (30% of the market) and BEARS have joined in the euphoria.

that is driving us up up up

[Slurry Pumper]

Sure there is a downturn coming, but for the meantime, we ride the wave of bullishness until at least a down day of significance. I think we get more up than down until the Jan 1 date. Even then things may continue up who knows. I'm just riding the rollercoaster while taking some profits on a regular basis. Keep real close to the exit but at the same time piling money into stocks.

[Madison]

Beware the Grinch. Not sure when but he's coming.

[guitarjosh]

or in Feb or March or...

Yeah, of course there will be a pullback sometime, there is always is. But it may be from 10% higher than it is right now. Or maybe not. Nobody knows.

The problem is that the market is rarely as overbought as it currently is.

[d2bets]

If I'm not mistaken, the Russell 2000 is up over 22% in the past ~ 2 months. Incredible.

[d2bets]

We could see a new ATH in the S&P by New Year's, the problem the market internals are so overbought we'll probably see a pretty nasty pullback in January.

or in Feb or March or...

Yeah, of course there will be a pullback sometime, there is always is. But it may be from 10% higher than it is right now. Or maybe not. Nobody knows.

[guitarjosh]

Nah. The 12 days of Christmas is just beginning. S&P will reach ATH before New Years.

We could see a new ATH in the S&P by New Year's, the problem the market internals are so overbought we'll probably see a pretty nasty pullback in January.

[d2bets]

The Dow made an ATH today, but we're so overbought we're going to have to pull back for a bit.

Nah. The 12 days of Christmas is just beginning. S&P will reach ATH before New Years.

[guitarjosh]

Jerome signals the all-clear and all-time highs are in sight. Santa Claus arrives in time for the 12 days of Christmas.

The Dow made an ATH today, but we're so overbought we're going to have to pull back for a bit.

[d2bets]

Jerome signals the all-clear and all-time highs are in sight. Santa Claus arrives in time for the 12 days of Christmas.

[Madison]

Well that level of resistance was broken today, and thankfully the markets didn't F around too long so I had the opportunity to get out before I lost my entire ass playing PUTS. Now I set my sights on the next level for the SPY $462 starting next week.
Over on the Nasdaq, I still have PUTS from last week in play for this week. This market didn't participate like the other index funds last week, and thus the $388.50 buy of PUTS is losing money but it hasn't gone to shyt yet.
With the IWM and Dow transports making huge gains last week, I will stay with my bullish thoughts going into the Christmas holidays even though I was trying to catch a pullback situation. Those long er term calls that expire in late Jan are making money so I'll let them ride for a while.

How about that gold? Lately its right there with the all time high and if it can break out, I think the miners will go along with it. I've been steadily adding to my gold miners on a monthly basis for about 4 years now. With gold at all time highs, it doesn't make sense that the miners are as beaten down as they are.

Slurry, watch the $ vs the Yuan etc. China etc making a lot of moves to devalue the $ and do international trade with Yuan, Gold, Etc. Lot going on here.

[d2bets]

at some point in the not-so-distant future, just the INTEREST on the debt will be more than the federal government collects... that's why the media and congress hates trump, he's the only one that didn't start any wars, those wars are all that keep the military industrial complex (and house of cards) going

US hasn't started a war since Jr. Military industrial complex companies love Trump. There is no military spending he doesn't love. The biggest military spending increase was Trump's first budget for fy 2018, an increase over 10%.

Open secret: the media loves Trump. They love to hate him. And none of it has to do with military.

[Slurry Pumper]

My bullishness is still there while being mindful of the exit door. All plays are just couple of day plays. This market will drift up unless the Fed comes out and pisses off everyone.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

at some point in the not-so-distant future, just the INTEREST on the debt will be more than the federal government collects... that's why the media and congress hates trump, he's the only one that didn't start any wars, those wars are all that keep the military industrial complex (and house of cards) going

Salud, mike. Yes, that's the Greg Foss video note. When you do the math, the interest on the US debt means that the US is insolvent.

As for Trump, I couldn't figure out why the media hated him so much. The media has lost all credibility (IMHO). It's amazing how true Eisenhower's speech on Military-Industrial complex proved to be.

[milwaukee mike]

So how big is the debt, really?

One trillion, let alone 33, is a number many folks can’t quite wrap their heads around. It is “a million times a million” — though “trillion” sounds so close to “billion” that it’s easy to lose track of just how behemoth a sum it is.

at some point in the not-so-distant future, just the INTEREST on the debt will be more than the federal government collects... that's why the media and congress hates trump, he's the only one that didn't start any wars, those wars are all that keep the military industrial complex (and house of cards) going

[Madison]

So how big is the debt, really?

One trillion, let alone 33, is a number many folks can’t quite wrap their heads around. It is “a million times a million” — though “trillion” sounds so close to “billion” that it’s easy to lose track of just how behemoth a sum it is.

[flyingillini]

Does Apple hit $300 by 2026?

[hehfest]

Just Like 9/11? Suspicious Israeli Stock Market Activity
Hints at Foreknowledge of October 7 Attack - The tribe
OFTEN (being too nice = Always) - makes money on Tragedies

Jews Rush To Try To Discredit Report Of Big Profits
Made...Showing Foreknowledge Of Oct 7 Attack

[hehfest]

Just Like 9/11? Suspicious Israeli Stock Market Activity
Hints at Foreknowledge of October 7 Attack - The tribe
OFTEN (being too nice = Always) - makes money on Tragedies

[Slurry Pumper]

Good stuff Guitarjosh. This market is in the last throws of bullishness in my opinion. I keep predicting a pullback after quite a sizable run, but it just isn't coming back down. Right now all markets look like they are topping and ready to go the other way. Giving the time of year, I think there is a pullback operation, but overall until next year hits, I'm expecting to eek out a little more. Keep an eye out for the rollercoaster ride down however. If I had some profits from the last run up, I would be looking to unload and put those in the books.