Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[d2bets]

If I'm not mistaken, the Russell 2000 is up over 22% in the past ~ 2 months. Incredible.

[d2bets]

We could see a new ATH in the S&P by New Year's, the problem the market internals are so overbought we'll probably see a pretty nasty pullback in January.

or in Feb or March or...

Yeah, of course there will be a pullback sometime, there is always is. But it may be from 10% higher than it is right now. Or maybe not. Nobody knows.

[guitarjosh]

Nah. The 12 days of Christmas is just beginning. S&P will reach ATH before New Years.

We could see a new ATH in the S&P by New Year's, the problem the market internals are so overbought we'll probably see a pretty nasty pullback in January.

[d2bets]

The Dow made an ATH today, but we're so overbought we're going to have to pull back for a bit.

Nah. The 12 days of Christmas is just beginning. S&P will reach ATH before New Years.

[guitarjosh]

Jerome signals the all-clear and all-time highs are in sight. Santa Claus arrives in time for the 12 days of Christmas.

The Dow made an ATH today, but we're so overbought we're going to have to pull back for a bit.

[d2bets]

Jerome signals the all-clear and all-time highs are in sight. Santa Claus arrives in time for the 12 days of Christmas.

[Madison]

Well that level of resistance was broken today, and thankfully the markets didn't F around too long so I had the opportunity to get out before I lost my entire ass playing PUTS. Now I set my sights on the next level for the SPY $462 starting next week.
Over on the Nasdaq, I still have PUTS from last week in play for this week. This market didn't participate like the other index funds last week, and thus the $388.50 buy of PUTS is losing money but it hasn't gone to shyt yet.
With the IWM and Dow transports making huge gains last week, I will stay with my bullish thoughts going into the Christmas holidays even though I was trying to catch a pullback situation. Those long er term calls that expire in late Jan are making money so I'll let them ride for a while.

How about that gold? Lately its right there with the all time high and if it can break out, I think the miners will go along with it. I've been steadily adding to my gold miners on a monthly basis for about 4 years now. With gold at all time highs, it doesn't make sense that the miners are as beaten down as they are.

Slurry, watch the $ vs the Yuan etc. China etc making a lot of moves to devalue the $ and do international trade with Yuan, Gold, Etc. Lot going on here.

[d2bets]

at some point in the not-so-distant future, just the INTEREST on the debt will be more than the federal government collects... that's why the media and congress hates trump, he's the only one that didn't start any wars, those wars are all that keep the military industrial complex (and house of cards) going

US hasn't started a war since Jr. Military industrial complex companies love Trump. There is no military spending he doesn't love. The biggest military spending increase was Trump's first budget for fy 2018, an increase over 10%.

Open secret: the media loves Trump. They love to hate him. And none of it has to do with military.

[Slurry Pumper]

My bullishness is still there while being mindful of the exit door. All plays are just couple of day plays. This market will drift up unless the Fed comes out and pisses off everyone.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

at some point in the not-so-distant future, just the INTEREST on the debt will be more than the federal government collects... that's why the media and congress hates trump, he's the only one that didn't start any wars, those wars are all that keep the military industrial complex (and house of cards) going

Salud, mike. Yes, that's the Greg Foss video note. When you do the math, the interest on the US debt means that the US is insolvent.

As for Trump, I couldn't figure out why the media hated him so much. The media has lost all credibility (IMHO). It's amazing how true Eisenhower's speech on Military-Industrial complex proved to be.

[milwaukee mike]

So how big is the debt, really?

One trillion, let alone 33, is a number many folks can’t quite wrap their heads around. It is “a million times a million” — though “trillion” sounds so close to “billion” that it’s easy to lose track of just how behemoth a sum it is.

at some point in the not-so-distant future, just the INTEREST on the debt will be more than the federal government collects... that's why the media and congress hates trump, he's the only one that didn't start any wars, those wars are all that keep the military industrial complex (and house of cards) going

[Madison]

So how big is the debt, really?

One trillion, let alone 33, is a number many folks can’t quite wrap their heads around. It is “a million times a million” — though “trillion” sounds so close to “billion” that it’s easy to lose track of just how behemoth a sum it is.

[flyingillini]

Does Apple hit $300 by 2026?

[hehfest]

Just Like 9/11? Suspicious Israeli Stock Market Activity
Hints at Foreknowledge of October 7 Attack - The tribe
OFTEN (being too nice = Always) - makes money on Tragedies

Jews Rush To Try To Discredit Report Of Big Profits
Made...Showing Foreknowledge Of Oct 7 Attack

[hehfest]

Just Like 9/11? Suspicious Israeli Stock Market Activity
Hints at Foreknowledge of October 7 Attack - The tribe
OFTEN (being too nice = Always) - makes money on Tragedies

[Slurry Pumper]

Good stuff Guitarjosh. This market is in the last throws of bullishness in my opinion. I keep predicting a pullback after quite a sizable run, but it just isn't coming back down. Right now all markets look like they are topping and ready to go the other way. Giving the time of year, I think there is a pullback operation, but overall until next year hits, I'm expecting to eek out a little more. Keep an eye out for the rollercoaster ride down however. If I had some profits from the last run up, I would be looking to unload and put those in the books.

[guitarjosh]

JOSHer
thank you.
nominated your post and shipped you 50 !

Add this too, real GDI is now negative YoY. Every time this has happened since 1948, it has coincided with a recession. Every time we've had a recession since 1948, real GDI has gone negative YoY.

[Madison]

Keep an eyeball on the M2 money supply. Flashing serious RED CAUTION. Near all time lows.

U.S. Money Supply Is Shrinking for the First Time Since the Great Depression, and It May Portend a Big Move for Stocks (msn.com)

[Madison]

Keep an eyeball on the M2 money supply. Flashing serious RED CAUTION. Near all time lows.

[homie1975]

JOSHer
thank you.
nominated your post and shipped you 50 !

[guitarjosh]

WOW Josher

can you please share some insight on the key indicator(s) that are driving your pivot ?

First, it's the % of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 & S&P 100 that are above their 50-day averages and 200-day moving averages. Usually, you can count on a nice reversal when you're above 75% on both and below 25% on both.

The next problem is that the VIX usually lags Fed interest policy by 2 years. That means we will probably see a spike in the VIX starting around March of 2024

[homie1975]

I might need to amend this from a short but fast 5% pullback to a market top for at least several months.

WOW Josher

can you please share some insight on the key indicator(s) that are driving your pivot ?

[guitarjosh]

The whole market is getting overbought. Don't be surprised by a short but fast 5% pullback.

I might need to amend this from a short but fast 5% pullback to a market top for at least several months.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well that level of resistance was broken today, and thankfully the markets didn't F around too long so I had the opportunity to get out before I lost my entire ass playing PUTS. Now I set my sights on the next level for the SPY $462 starting next week.
Over on the Nasdaq, I still have PUTS from last week in play for this week. This market didn't participate like the other index funds last week, and thus the $388.50 buy of PUTS is losing money but it hasn't gone to shyt yet.
With the IWM and Dow transports making huge gains last week, I will stay with my bullish thoughts going into the Christmas holidays even though I was trying to catch a pullback situation. Those long er term calls that expire in late Jan are making money so I'll let them ride for a while.

How about that gold? Lately its right there with the all time high and if it can break out, I think the miners will go along with it. I've been steadily adding to my gold miners on a monthly basis for about 4 years now. With gold at all time highs, it doesn't make sense that the miners are as beaten down as they are.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good day for Metals. Especially Lithium.

[Slurry Pumper]

I waited all day long yesterday and at the end of the day, there was a push higher to the $456.50 (SPY) which allowed me to jump in with those PUTS. I got a few that expire today, and a shyt load more that expire next Friday, I'll continue to pile in today probably all the way to $458ish levels before I turn and try another day.
Powell comes out today onto the playing field to discuss how he thinks things are going so we may be in for a ride today either way.

[homie1975]

Does anyone find the interesting?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You can&#39;t make this up:<br><br>The S&amp;P 7, also known as the 7 largest tech stocks in the S&amp;P 500, is up a massive 80% in 2023.<br><br>Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 493, or the remaining 493 companies in the S&amp;P 500, is up just 4%.<br><br>In other words, the S&amp;P 7 is up 20 TIMES as much as the S&amp;P 7.<br><br>A few… <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/1CpcrnWsCi">pic.twitter.com/1CpcrnWsCi</a></p>&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1729241506811142488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >November 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

19ther

it makes sense that the "Magnificent 7" would be up the most in 2023 because they got hit the most in the 13 month swoon from late Nov 2021 through 12/31/2022.

they are the high fliers but the higher risk as well. These 7 are all NASDAQ stocks too.

it is not unusual in the last 25 years for big tech bluechips to be the biggest gainers (and losers) and to carry the stock market with them.

back in the early 2000's it was "The Four Horsemen" doing this as well and carrying the market in either direction, extremely heavily weighted.

those 4 stocks were: Microsoft, Dell, Intel and Cisco.

[Madison]

Mstr

Hey Chucky, while doing my daily read ...

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR)
Net Outflows of from Institutional Investors in Dollars $25,161,802,020.00
Net Outflows of from Institutional Investors in Shares 49,619,014
Number of Institutional Transactions in the Last 90 Days 109

[Slurry Pumper]

In fact as I ease into the chart looking this morning, I like a short play SPY for the rest of the week at $456.50. Right now the futures market shows a gap up right to resistance. I'll pile onto the play up until $457 on hourly closing candles, but then I bail out and repeat the deal at the $458.

[Slurry Pumper]

It's all interesting, I'm about taking profits before the end of the week. Still expecting a pretty sizable pullback for a week or so, but then back to being bullish into Christmas.

[19th Hole]

Does anyone find the interesting?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You can&#39;t make this up:<br><br>The S&amp;P 7, also known as the 7 largest tech stocks in the S&amp;P 500, is up a massive 80% in 2023.<br><br>Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 493, or the remaining 493 companies in the S&amp;P 500, is up just 4%.<br><br>In other words, the S&amp;P 7 is up 20 TIMES as much as the S&amp;P 7.<br><br>A few… <a href="https://t.co/1CpcrnWsCi">pic.twitter.com/1CpcrnWsCi</a></p>&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1729241506811142488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >November 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[trobin31]

Elon Musk dropping G-F-Y to everyone and meme stocks and coins pumping. I wish I would’ve bought some puts and volatility before close

[homie1975]

Maybe, but not today. S&P and Nasdaq both closing in on 52-week highs.

you spoke too soon, Mate, lol

they both closed in the Red.

let's see if there is more fuel to go up another leg.

NAZZY still ~11% off the ATH from Nov 2021.

S&P still about 4-5% below the ATH of late Dec 2021

[d2bets]

Josher!

good health to you !!

EXCELLENT call on the market pivoting bullish. it happened shortly after you predicted it.

a 5% pullback would be a normal mini correction for a healthy market, correct ?

we should be rooting for it actually.

Maybe, but not today. S&P and Nasdaq both closing in on 52-week highs.

[homie1975]

The whole market is getting overbought. Don't be surprised by a short but fast 5% pullback.

Josher!

good health to you !!

EXCELLENT call on the market pivoting bullish. it happened shortly after you predicted it.

a 5% pullback would be a normal mini correction for a healthy market, correct ?

we should be rooting for it actually.