Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Looking for yet another bounce off of the 420 area. So the song remains the same. Keep in mind if the markets can't sustain the bounce, it typically breaks down and goes lower. For now however until further notice, play the bounce. I see the futures are beating me to the punch this morning. If the SPY can't get through yesterday's high. That's a problem. For the Qs, same deal.

[Chiefs83]

Any thoughts on the market today, what are we looking for

[Slurry Pumper]

To open the day, I'll be looking to see if the SPY gaps below the $418.30 spot. If if doesn't gap below I'll be looking for a scalp trade for at least a couple of minutes to start, which may morph into more, if it doesn't turn around, the SPY will start heading for the $410 area.
QQQs gotta hold the $351 spot for all you tech players but it is the same sort of deal. 1st a scalp of a couple of minutes which may morph into more.

What does that really mean? I'll buy a shyt load of calls this morning after the morning rush when the markets stop falling as my support numbers get closer, or on the open if things start to rise. Then almost immediately start siphoning off shares when the price moves up. I bail and get out of the way and get rid of the calls if the price hangs out below those touted numbers on hourly closes. Not all at once, but over the course of 3 to 4 hours depending on the market action, ie not a free fall situation.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

those things used to trade at a huge premium, for example in 2018 when btc was under 20k, gbtc was 30... now stuff like etcg trades at a 50%+ discount

i like etcg at this level... bito seems like a better idea than gbtc if gbtc gets to around NAV (no discount), you can sell options against bito

Thx, Mike. Appreciate your insights. Will scout those out.

[milwaukee mike]

GBTC ripping. My logic:

1) Hard for Americans to on-board purchase BTC.
2) Much easier to on-board purchase GBTC.

If people want to have Bitcoin exposure, GBTC may be the logical choice. Assuming BTC demand keeps rising, GBTC price should go up in lock-step.

those things used to trade at a huge premium, for example in 2018 when btc was under 20k, gbtc was 30... now stuff like etcg trades at a 50%+ discount

i like etcg at this level... bito seems like a better idea than gbtc if gbtc gets to around NAV (no discount), you can sell options against bito

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GBTC ripping. My logic:

1) Hard for Americans to on-board purchase BTC.
2) Much easier to on-board purchase GBTC.

If people want to have Bitcoin exposure, GBTC may be the logical choice. Assuming BTC demand keeps rising, GBTC price should go up in lock-step.

[Slurry Pumper]

Hey here we are again right at the $420ish spot. Go ahead and check my post #13690. The question remains as will this spot be yet again a place of inflection? The short answer is maybe, and by the way, this time the weekend may have a load of information that will determine what happens come Monday. The QQQ, XLF, and SMH are all hanging around levels of support, while my favorite market indicator IWM is just a little more than a slurry spurt away from reaching support at $164ish. The the other favorite market indicator $DJI is also hanging around a support level.
Add it up and it worth a try to buy in here come Monday morning from SPY $421 down to $418. Then on hourly candle stick closes when the SPY is under that, I bail lick my wounds and come back for another trade later.

[Chiefs83]

Any thoughts on buying after hours on Friday

[homie1975]

Yields at 5% it's a 16 year high,

can the Magnificent 7 and other blue-chippers crush earnings and forward guidance and save the day ?

[homie1975]

About 50% is invested in the market…rest is in the bank
What is MM?

MM = Money Market

[Madison]

Have offered before. This is the future and coming with strong defense/Gov backing. I think decent entry points here. DCA in. Note "Stellantis" in the alert below.

Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR - Get Free Report) major shareholder N.V. Stellantis purchased 12,313,234 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Monday, October 16th. The stock was acquired at an average price of $5.68 per share, with a total value of $69,939,169.12. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider now owns 31,048,137 shares in the company, valued at approximately $176,353,418.16. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this link. Large shareholders that own more than 10% of a company's stock are required to disclose their transactions with the SEC.

Forgot to mention that I have positions in both.

[Madison]

Achr / joby

Have offered before. This is the future and coming with strong defense/Gov backing. I think decent entry points here. DCA in. Note "Stellantis" in the alert below.

Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR - Get Free Report) major shareholder N.V. Stellantis purchased 12,313,234 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Monday, October 16th. The stock was acquired at an average price of $5.68 per share, with a total value of $69,939,169.12. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider now owns 31,048,137 shares in the company, valued at approximately $176,353,418.16. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this link. Large shareholders that own more than 10% of a company's stock are required to disclose their transactions with the SEC.

[Madison]

Gold going to hit $2000 an ounce ?

Curious trade. I did quite well mid 2020. Have been waiting for a descent under 1850. Added to my GLD around 170/1850. Outside of a March (SVB) and recent Israel situation bounce this commodity seems to want to trend lower. Add Ukraine and you get the picture. As long as interest rates are higher we should see downward pressure. Outside geopolitical/Banking look downward. Preservation of capital? I don't buy it at this level. What is Gold really worth other than jewelry?

[Chiefs83]

About 50% is invested in the market…rest is in the bank
What is MM?

[Madison]

Fair question. One retort: What do you do with your $$?

MY MM above 5%. Not a terrible spot to hide out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Any thoughts on the market today… I’m thinking about selling and getting out…thoughts….

Fair question. One retort: What do you do with your $$?

[Chiefs83]

Any thoughts on the market today… I’m thinking about selling and getting out…thoughts….

[mr. leisure]

Gold going to hit $2000 an ounce ?

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the SPY got cut right through the $431 spot then hung out at around the $430.50ish spot for about a half hour, took a dump and clawed back to barley close just above the low from Friday. I'm out after a close below $431 for the day and it was looking like that was the case so I bailed. Tomorrow the markets might try to bounce again, but I'm not going to participate. Put me down in the doom and gloom camp as I think we see the 200 DMA before long coming here.
Over on the QQQs its a little more bullish and I think next week may be the earnings for allot of them, but I'm still bearish overall.
Overall I think the markets are skating around on some very thin ice here. We're about a surprise attack from a Arab country away from a melt down here; or maybe a not to be outdone large force offensive by Russia over in Ukraine. Either way, I'm about as close to the exit as I can be in the markets. Not only for doom and gloom, there could be a large surprise announcement coming from all the crooks in Washington that would set the market ablaze and we would be off to the races here for a while and somehow challenging the all time highs.

[Chiefs83]

Thanks
Slurry crazy how close your numbers are

[Slurry Pumper]

Is it time to bail yet?

Nope for SPY I got $431 for my line in the sand, and that is after a daily close so lets see what happens if and when the SPY gets down to that level today.
Right this second there is a bull bear battle going on at around $432. This is a day trading level for me to buy too.

[Chiefs83]

Is it time to bail yet?

[Slurry Pumper]

The SPY needs to break out above the 50 DMA ($438.94) pretty soon (buy Friday in my estimation) or this hype machine for a rally due to the strong consumer will soon turn around and go the other way.

[hehfest]

I guess Mr. Market loves all the world turmoil. What's going on here?

Just buy every single defense (cough, cough, offense) stock in every company you can find and you will do fine. They love war and rumors of war and they become wealthier and wealthier from it. Don't think for a second all these crooks in CON-gress aren't loaded with shares in weapons stocks.

[Chiefs83]

Hell of a call…I bought when it was at 37

[Madison]

Been on this one for quite a while. Solid article and entry point here.

Symbotic is at a Critical Price Point: Are Big Gains in Sight? - MarketBeat

Bump

[Madison]

SYM taking off

Any thank you 's here ?? Up 25% or so in 2 weeks.

[Slurry Pumper]

Yep we have the markets making a bull flag on the daily chart so don't be shocked when they go up. To play this, I am buying calls that expire on Friday or even sooner, then at every resistance area, I buy PUTS that expire late Jan or maybe even mid Feb.

[homie1975]

I guess Mr. Market loves all the world turmoil. What's going on here?

the bull market climbs the wall of worry

[d2bets]

I guess Mr. Market loves all the world turmoil. What's going on here?

[Madison]

i should've piled into all of these a week ago

at least i nibbled on some more pep and tgt right near the bottom

Was circling DG, but it bounced quite a bit THU/FRI.

[milwaukee mike]

i think some of these consumer stocks like KO, PEP, TGT, CBRL are at good entry points

KO and PEP are trading like none of the fatties in the USA are gonna ever buy soda and chips again

i should've piled into all of these a week ago

at least i nibbled on some more pep and tgt right near the bottom

[Madison]

Slurry ... Not sure if I'm the only one, but while I love and appreciate your input I wish you could put your intellect in a form us normal traders could digest.

All my best!!

[Slurry Pumper]

3rd day in a row the SPY tried to fill the gap only to not get too far. When the markets try to go one way and get rejected, then they typically go the other way and that is what happened today, right on down to $431.23 which if you're paying attention is just $0.08 from where I have my support level I told you about. After shaking out the Longs, the Trick, Trap, Fool and F you sideways crowd turn around yet again. it was a great day, I still have some Calls for tomorrow, and I still have some of the long term calls that expire in January left. I also have a small amount of Puts that expire in January. Tomorrow, I'll be unloading those calls that expire of course, and probably a little more of the ones that expire in January. We'll see, I really don't want to hold any thing long going into the weekend, but I will hang on to a growing Put position for the long haul. i'm still in the doom and gloom camp, but the short squeeze isn't quite dead yet and thus can gain legs to go for the gap fill ether today or next week.

[Madison]

Treasury Yields

There's a message here.

Though QT has reduced the Fed's balance sheet by $1 trillion overall since beginning last year, the central bank has added around $77.5 billion in bonds with maturities of 10 years or more, according to St. Louis Fed data.