Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[guitarjosh]

JOSHer
thank you.
nominated your post and shipped you 50 !

Add this too, real GDI is now negative YoY. Every time this has happened since 1948, it has coincided with a recession. Every time we've had a recession since 1948, real GDI has gone negative YoY.

[Madison]

Keep an eyeball on the M2 money supply. Flashing serious RED CAUTION. Near all time lows.

U.S. Money Supply Is Shrinking for the First Time Since the Great Depression, and It May Portend a Big Move for Stocks (msn.com)

[Madison]

Keep an eyeball on the M2 money supply. Flashing serious RED CAUTION. Near all time lows.

[homie1975]

JOSHer
thank you.
nominated your post and shipped you 50 !

[guitarjosh]

WOW Josher

can you please share some insight on the key indicator(s) that are driving your pivot ?

First, it's the % of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 & S&P 100 that are above their 50-day averages and 200-day moving averages. Usually, you can count on a nice reversal when you're above 75% on both and below 25% on both.

The next problem is that the VIX usually lags Fed interest policy by 2 years. That means we will probably see a spike in the VIX starting around March of 2024

[homie1975]

I might need to amend this from a short but fast 5% pullback to a market top for at least several months.

WOW Josher

can you please share some insight on the key indicator(s) that are driving your pivot ?

[guitarjosh]

The whole market is getting overbought. Don't be surprised by a short but fast 5% pullback.

I might need to amend this from a short but fast 5% pullback to a market top for at least several months.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well that level of resistance was broken today, and thankfully the markets didn't F around too long so I had the opportunity to get out before I lost my entire ass playing PUTS. Now I set my sights on the next level for the SPY $462 starting next week.
Over on the Nasdaq, I still have PUTS from last week in play for this week. This market didn't participate like the other index funds last week, and thus the $388.50 buy of PUTS is losing money but it hasn't gone to shyt yet.
With the IWM and Dow transports making huge gains last week, I will stay with my bullish thoughts going into the Christmas holidays even though I was trying to catch a pullback situation. Those long er term calls that expire in late Jan are making money so I'll let them ride for a while.

How about that gold? Lately its right there with the all time high and if it can break out, I think the miners will go along with it. I've been steadily adding to my gold miners on a monthly basis for about 4 years now. With gold at all time highs, it doesn't make sense that the miners are as beaten down as they are.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good day for Metals. Especially Lithium.

[Slurry Pumper]

I waited all day long yesterday and at the end of the day, there was a push higher to the $456.50 (SPY) which allowed me to jump in with those PUTS. I got a few that expire today, and a shyt load more that expire next Friday, I'll continue to pile in today probably all the way to $458ish levels before I turn and try another day.
Powell comes out today onto the playing field to discuss how he thinks things are going so we may be in for a ride today either way.

[homie1975]

Does anyone find the interesting?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You can&#39;t make this up:<br><br>The S&amp;P 7, also known as the 7 largest tech stocks in the S&amp;P 500, is up a massive 80% in 2023.<br><br>Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 493, or the remaining 493 companies in the S&amp;P 500, is up just 4%.<br><br>In other words, the S&amp;P 7 is up 20 TIMES as much as the S&amp;P 7.<br><br>A few… <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/1CpcrnWsCi">pic.twitter.com/1CpcrnWsCi</a></p>&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1729241506811142488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >November 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

19ther

it makes sense that the "Magnificent 7" would be up the most in 2023 because they got hit the most in the 13 month swoon from late Nov 2021 through 12/31/2022.

they are the high fliers but the higher risk as well. These 7 are all NASDAQ stocks too.

it is not unusual in the last 25 years for big tech bluechips to be the biggest gainers (and losers) and to carry the stock market with them.

back in the early 2000's it was "The Four Horsemen" doing this as well and carrying the market in either direction, extremely heavily weighted.

those 4 stocks were: Microsoft, Dell, Intel and Cisco.

[Madison]

Mstr

Hey Chucky, while doing my daily read ...

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR)
Net Outflows of from Institutional Investors in Dollars $25,161,802,020.00
Net Outflows of from Institutional Investors in Shares 49,619,014
Number of Institutional Transactions in the Last 90 Days 109

[Slurry Pumper]

In fact as I ease into the chart looking this morning, I like a short play SPY for the rest of the week at $456.50. Right now the futures market shows a gap up right to resistance. I'll pile onto the play up until $457 on hourly closing candles, but then I bail out and repeat the deal at the $458.

[Slurry Pumper]

It's all interesting, I'm about taking profits before the end of the week. Still expecting a pretty sizable pullback for a week or so, but then back to being bullish into Christmas.

[19th Hole]

Does anyone find the interesting?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You can&#39;t make this up:<br><br>The S&amp;P 7, also known as the 7 largest tech stocks in the S&amp;P 500, is up a massive 80% in 2023.<br><br>Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 493, or the remaining 493 companies in the S&amp;P 500, is up just 4%.<br><br>In other words, the S&amp;P 7 is up 20 TIMES as much as the S&amp;P 7.<br><br>A few… <a href="https://t.co/1CpcrnWsCi">pic.twitter.com/1CpcrnWsCi</a></p>&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1729241506811142488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >November 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[trobin31]

Elon Musk dropping G-F-Y to everyone and meme stocks and coins pumping. I wish I would’ve bought some puts and volatility before close

[homie1975]

Maybe, but not today. S&P and Nasdaq both closing in on 52-week highs.

you spoke too soon, Mate, lol

they both closed in the Red.

let's see if there is more fuel to go up another leg.

NAZZY still ~11% off the ATH from Nov 2021.

S&P still about 4-5% below the ATH of late Dec 2021

[d2bets]

Josher!

good health to you !!

EXCELLENT call on the market pivoting bullish. it happened shortly after you predicted it.

a 5% pullback would be a normal mini correction for a healthy market, correct ?

we should be rooting for it actually.

Maybe, but not today. S&P and Nasdaq both closing in on 52-week highs.

[homie1975]

The whole market is getting overbought. Don't be surprised by a short but fast 5% pullback.

Josher!

good health to you !!

EXCELLENT call on the market pivoting bullish. it happened shortly after you predicted it.

a 5% pullback would be a normal mini correction for a healthy market, correct ?

we should be rooting for it actually.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

It’s not too late to buy Symbotic, an AI-powered automation stock - MarketBeat

Wow, SYM has shown some upward movement.

WHAT is your fair price on SYM? What would be a cheap buy price on SYM?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The whole market is getting overbought. Don't be surprised by a short but fast 5% pullback.

Think you're right. I've mentioned in here that I'm:
*Buying the dips on MSTR/GBTC/LITOF etc.
*Selling the peaks on some of my Vanguard holdings.
...I don't have too many individual stocks were I feel like I'm over-weighted.

Said it b4. Thanks to all for posting info in here.

[guitarjosh]

The whole market is getting overbought. Don't be surprised by a short but fast 5% pullback.

[Madison]

SYM $32 couple weeks ago. Think I Just saw circa $58 on the scroll.

I've done everything I could except buy the shares for you. Likely near HIGH???

I may have to be prudent and take a few shares off here.

[Madison]

Sick to my stomach I sold SYM,(48.50)any value in buying now

It’s not too late to buy Symbotic, an AI-powered automation stock - MarketBeat

[Madison]

The NATIONAL DEBT. There is one way and only one way for the GOV to bail themselves out of this mess and that is inflation or the devaluation of our currency. Imagine a balance on your CC and you only pay the minimum amount.

Turkey ... Interest rates circa 40%, Inflation circa 61%, OUCH. Can you even imagine 6-12 months goes by and your life's savings takes a 50% hair cut?

[milwaukee mike]

It effects rich people also if you are a cheap bastard like me that watches every dollar I spend. That's how you get rich by not spending but saving.

Read this thin book and it will all begin to make sense to you. This book inspired me when I read it 30 years ago.

good tip about spending vs saving... wastefully spending money has never been enjoyable to me either... that's why i could retire at 48 instead of 65, while never really making a ton

[d2bets]

Ruh-Roh

https://technewsspace.com/nvidia-was...man-stupidity/

Ho-hum.

What matters is the forthcoming report. I'm definitely nervous. We'll see.

[Chiefs83]

Sick to my stomach I sold SYM,(48.50)any value in buying now

[homie1975]

How do we feel about NVDA reporting tomorrow? Made a new ATH today. It's just been an absolute monster. The expectations are high. Let's see what happens.

Ruh-Roh

https://technewsspace.com/nvidia-was-accused-of-stealing-hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars-worth-of-secret-data-the-source-of-evidence-was-human-stupidity/

[d2bets]

How do we feel about NVDA reporting tomorrow? Made a new ATH today. It's just been an absolute monster. The expectations are high. Let's see what happens.

[Madison]

SYM reports after close Monday.

[homie1975]

It effects rich people also if you are a cheap bastard like me that watches every dollar I spend. That's how you get rich by not spending but saving.

Read this thin book and it will all begin to make sense to you. This book inspired me when I read it 30 years ago.

i have heard it is a great book. i will read it.

[Madison]

Inflation is easing quickly. By next summer we might be talking about deflation.

The NATIONAL DEBT. There is one way and only one way for the GOV to bail themselves out of this mess and that is inflation or the devaluation of our currency. Imagine a balance on your CC and you only pay the minimum amount.

[Madison]

Madder
don't beat yourself up. if you knew it would go that much higher, you would have bought more, but you did not know.

judge yourself by the decision you make at that time, not in hindsight.

had it gone down 25% or insert big number, you would have been kicking yourself right now.

Yes my friend. One must not ever miss the fact that this a marathon not a sprint.

[JIBBBY]

high gas and grocery store prices only affect poor people. i thought you were rich?

go to costco, it's 4.50 a gallon here in socal. cheap.

It effects rich people also if you are a cheap bastard like me that watches every dollar I spend. That's how you get rich by not spending but saving.

Read this thin book and it will all begin to make sense to you. This book inspired me when I read it 30 years ago.