Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[trobin31]

Biggest threat right now is how things will shape up in Middle East. we’ve seen this movie before, but this time seems different. If Israel goes full scale this could unite several countries to the Palestinian cause and send oil and inflation back higher. Theres a case for several years of commodity and energy supply tightening if US relationships break down in Middle East. At the end of the day, these are Muslims, and they won’t sit by very long watching Palestinians get annihilated at this scale so quickly, maybe if it’s a slow burn like it’s been for past few decades, then that’s okay and they don’t feel need to intervene. Anywho, All this is bad for inflation if not tamed. I will be hedging w bets on energy, especially oil & uranium as this rally likely continues through Ramadan/holidays but after that I am worried what is next shoe to drop.

[homie1975]

Would you be shocked if that was topped before year-end? I wouldn't.

i would be extremely surprised.

[d2bets]

SPX only 7.3% off the high of 12/31/21 which was 4766.

Would you be shocked if that was topped before year-end? I wouldn't.

[homie1975]

Now that was a rip your face off rally. It will not surprise me if they Santa Claus rally is in effect this year. If the Fed is done and has achieved the soft landing, off she runs. Don't forget, even after today the S&P still almost 10% off the Jan 2021 highs, and the smaller caps far more than that.

SPX only 7.3% off the high of 12/31/21 which was 4766.

[d2bets]

memo to the masses:

the melt up continues, no matter how much anyone likes or dislikes it.

the bull market climbs the wall of worry.

macro geopolitical BS cannot stop it.

opinions about politics cannot stop it.

invest accordingly, or risk getting your A$$ handed to you.

friends of mine who hate the people running the USA right now, played a bunch of PUTS and they are getting their shitt crammed up their assses.

serves them right.

it is okay to be stupid. it is Not okay to be ignorant.

GO MARKET GO

Now that was a rip your face off rally. It will not surprise me if they Santa Claus rally is in effect this year. If the Fed is done and has achieved the soft landing, off she runs. Don't forget, even after today the S&P still almost 10% off the Jan 2021 highs, and the smaller caps far more than that.

[homie1975]

Just seems like we are due for big down move soon.

based on what? your feelings? based on what data? based o what empirical data?

you will go broke thinking like that.

when everyone is thinking ONE WAY, GO THE OTHER WAY

[homie1975]

memo to the masses:

the melt up continues, no matter how much anyone likes or dislikes it.

the bull market climbs the wall of worry.

macro geopolitical BS cannot stop it.

opinions about politics cannot stop it.

invest accordingly, or risk getting your A$$ handed to you.

friends of mine who hate the people running the USA right now, played a bunch of PUTS and they are getting their shitt crammed up their assses.

serves them right.

it is okay to be stupid. it is Not okay to be ignorant.

GO MARKET GO

[Slurry Pumper]

$433.40 on the SPY is pretty close to my $443.20 spot for a bounce. So far I would just call this a spot for a blip or daytrade chance. Not technically a daytrade as this started yesterday at around 3:00 PM, but if I sell at 10 this morning, I've really only held the option for 2 hours of trading time, so I consider it a day trade. It may turn into more today if the markets just start to run here, or give it up and go for the gap fill situation at the $430.90 spot. I like the gap fill better, but it may not get there before we resume the uphill climb. There is allot of bearish plays out there, and when they start covering, it will be a pretty big run. Maybe not as good as the last 35 -40 point run up a week ago, but those are pretty rare.

[Enkhbat]

Which state are you in Chucky? I didn't realize donuts were that expensive.

I am thinking about buying some VIX call options exprining before the new year, it just feels like there will be a spike soon.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One other anecdotal comment: *I think the Inflation >>> Hyper-Inflation is going faster than people think:

1) Check out the prices in your Soft Drink aisle.
...Those prices have gone up +50% in the L12 months.

2) Had an urge for two Jelly donuts from Dunkin.
...Hadn't had one in ages. $2.12 per donut - GTFOH.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Down 30% overnight to $21. I have traded this guy when it was circa $50. I thought quite highly of the company but the price was an aberration. Thinking of dipping back in at the open.

Anyone have any thoughts here?

Thx again to guys like Madison. I'm always looking for critical thinking.

Madison, I've been doing the same thing we discussed:
1) Slowly di-vesting some of the Index Funds and tech-stocks.
2) Buying the dip on MSTR/GBTC and a few metal stocks.

Looking at the screen today: Giddyup.

[Madison]

Miners in general are in this oversold boat. I concur with the lithium play, but caution against the small players in this field. Of course that is not ALB, as they have established facilities.
I just got back from the South American areas that are doing this mining, and I can say the governments are clamping down on smaller facilities that may not be producing within the regulating guidelines that are laid out. I don't have a list of violators, but just tossing that out there because about 125% of the cost to produce lithium is the process.

Much appreciated Slurry!!

One note here is to add attention to the "Chile Crash" back this spring. I killed the bounce after the overreaction. I believe ALB has contractual mining rights in Chile through 2046. I'll be long gone by then.

[Madison]

Upstart UPST

Down 30% overnight to $21. I have traded this guy when it was circa $50. I thought quite highly of the company but the price was an aberration. Thinking of dipping back in at the open.

Anyone have any thoughts here?

[Slurry Pumper]

ALB and other Lithium related stocks and the commodity itself have plummeted to WAY oversold. You can track the resurgence via ALB. Start building a position now!!!

After Earnings, Is Albemarle Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued? | Morningstar

Miners in general are in this oversold boat. I concur with the lithium play, but caution against the small players in this field. Of course that is not ALB, as they have established facilities.
I just got back from the South American areas that are doing this mining, and I can say the governments are clamping down on smaller facilities that may not be producing within the regulating guidelines that are laid out. I don't have a list of violators, but just tossing that out there because about 125% of the cost to produce lithium is the process.

[Madison]

NOW is the time ..

ALB and other Lithium related stocks and the commodity itself have plummeted to WAY oversold. You can track the resurgence via ALB. Start building a position now!!!

After Earnings, Is Albemarle Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued? | Morningstar

[Slurry Pumper]

Alright after 7 days of just going up, from the spot on the SPY I identified for you all, it may be time for a slight pullback here. Looking for the 50DMA $433.20ish as support, and the gap fill of $430.90ish. On the off chance the bull flag works, the 100 DMA $439ish isn't going to be much of a resistance if reached.

[homie1975]

The Tell


Fed likely to cut rates below 3%, making bonds attractive now, Guggenheim says

Published: Nov. 6, 2023 at 6:15 p.m. ET

[veriableodds]

New it was a fakeout…SYM getting crushed

You may like this dense diverse tech/AI etf. Monthly on the div with a just under 11%apy(AIO)
Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund (AIO) Holdings (seekingalpha.com)

[Chiefs83]

I understand I added a couple shares at 34.88 earlier

[Madison]

New it was a fakeout…SYM getting crushed

We are not day trading SYM. This a "build a strong position" slowly but for the mid term (next 5 years).

[veriableodds]

what the hell are the markets going to do???
sp500 ytd+15%
leco ytd+26%
mo down 11%but pays over a 9% div, don't plan on selling this decade anyway.

[Chiefs83]

New it was a fakeout…SYM getting crushed

[Chiefs83]

Is tomorrow the day the market turns???
How many more days can it keep skyrocketing…
Premarket is up huge again

[Optional]

I don't think the Fed is done.

Too much strength still pushing inflation.

[d2bets]

Just seems like we are due for big down move soon.

There was a big down move late October. Gained it back this week. Back where we were a few weeks ago.

Chart-wise it seems like the downward channel for the last few means has been breached to the upside. If the Fed is done the rally will continue.

[Enkhbat]

Just seems like we are due for big down move soon.

[d2bets]

go go go

It's rip your face off rally week.

[homie1975]

go go go

[Slurry Pumper]

Well nap time is over as the SPY did indeed hit the 200DMA yesterday. Price was not rejected, but since I do this on a weekly basis and there are only 2 days left for the calls I bought, I sold about half of the ones I got last week down at around the $410 spot. That's a really good cha ching moment. Going forward I let the other half go for a while today and see what happens. Will there be a post FED sell off, or will the rally continue to the next spot of inflection ($425.50ish)? At that spot if we get there this week, is another unloading spot for the calls that expire tomorrow. By the way, on a pullback this morning I'm a buyer of calls that expire next Friday if we find the SPY down at my old favorite spot ($418.30ish).
Over in tech land, there is some profits to take at the $358.50 area. Looking pre-game this morning the QQQs are at $360, so I'm selling at the bell for the half the calls I picked up this week.
Overall I think the markets power through and keep rising for the time being, so churning calls on a weekly basis will continue going into the Turkey day holiday and possibly until that fat jolly dude shows up at the end of the year.

[Madison]

This guy maintained its price point through a very tough couple weeks. Adding on dips here.

Some more on SYM curtesy of The Motley Fool

How to approach Symbotic stock now

As mentioned, Symbotic isn't yet profitable. Surprisingly, the stock is currently selling for just 2.3 times sales and 1.3 times forward sales, making it a bargain. The stock is well off its highs from earlier this year, as its growth is expected to slow to 57% in 2024, down from triple-digit percentage growth so far this year.
This stock has sailed under much of Wall Street's radar thus far. Yet, of the 13 analysts who follow the stock, nine rate it a buy or strong buy, and not a single one rates it a sell.
Symbotic's small size and lack of profitability make it a risky proposition. That said, the retail environment will only get more challenging, and demand for Symbotic systems will likely increase. Savvy investors with the stomach for some gut-churning volatility should consider buying now -- adding a small position as part of a balanced portfolio -- particularly in light of Symbotic's promising long-term prospects.

[Chiefs83]

What’s up with SYM ???

[Slurry Pumper]

Looks like the relief is here, and this train just left the station. There are many stops this week, but I'm taking a nap until the SPY gets close to the 200DMA ($423+). SURE expect some reaction at the now infamous $418.30ish area, but the 200 is the next decision area.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Your appreciation is appreciated althouh the results of late have been questionable. A lot of what I tout are futuristic growth/speculative one's looking for 10x.BOL Buddy!

Thx, Madison. I try not to be short-term results-oriented.

Appreciate anyone checking in with well-researched opinions.

[Slurry Pumper]

I think as the week moves one we will get our relief rally. Looks like the $410 on the SPY was the deal. I missed the QQQs, they didn't even make it to the 200DMA before bouncing here. I think the biggest relief rally we will get is in the banks, the XLF is a nasty looking chart right now and the closing price from Friday is $31.45. That's at a level of support although not the best level. There is a more substantial level at the $30.50ish area. With the Fed coming out this week to tell us a few things, that will be the market mover it always is and this time, I'm in the bullish camp. I'm looking for the XLF to get to the 200WMA by the end of the week ($32.62) and if it does, the rest of the markets will be coming along with it, or should I say the rest of the markets will drag the banks along with them? Who the bottom line is they will all be moving in the upward direction for this week.

[Madison]

September/October traditionally worst months for market. The big rally will start soon. Buckle up.

Scared of what the jobs and retail numbers look like after the holiday punch bowl empties. I feel it's going to be a rough winter into spring especially when people realize rate reductions aren't coming anytime soon.