Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

OK day 2 of my bet of a pullback, and it looks like we will open in the money for those calls I touted and showed you how to generate a emotionless trade. Now, its all about keeping the W. I will just watch it to make sure it stays in the money. There is still a few day left to hang out and wait.

[Madison]

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just highlighting another way to extract wealth out of the markets. I think we are getting a pullback here in the markets. That doesn't mean I just dive in and say F it is time and I deem it so. We have to wait for a market signal for that. In the mean time, I can use the market behavior to get some seed money for some side bets. Below is my technique I use for bets of this nature. Do I know the markets are going down next week? No of course not, but the bet is that it will so I buy PUTS that expire next Friday. The money I use is the money I make today.



OK this is a chart from today's action with 1 minute candles on the SPY. As you can see the SPY just plotted along for the most part until around the 11:15 spot (arrow 1), when it took a pause and turned around. I didn't buy PUTS why? Well the price pulled back to support but didn't break through as shown (arrow 2). How do I know that was an area of support? The chart shows me this as price paused at about the same level starting at around 10 and staying there until 10:20 or so. So after the typical pivot happens on a daily basis, I have to wait until the price gets back to support and break down lower to buy PUTS. As it turned out it bounced off of support today and went straight back to the 100 period moving average (blue line) then came back down almost to the level of support before taking off back to the blue line again. Once it broke through that blue line, if you wanted, it could have been bought for a long position on a break out Friday creeper move. That would have been the big winning play of the day which I didn't do why? I felt that there was a greater chance the market would come back down at some point and that it wouldn't float up as high as it did. I was wrong and if floated up pretty good today. What can I say, I can't catch all the opportunities and I'm wrong more than I'm right about my prognostications. That is why I liek to gather a full stack of information to support my case before I buy anything.


Now on the same chart but zoomed in a little bit, we will see what I did do, and give an explanation on why. For reference the high of the day is marked (arrow 1), I waited for the pullback to come and bounce off of the 100 period moving average (blue line). It didn't really bounce it kind of came in punched through hung out for minute or 2 or 5 before taking back off north. Price came up to resistance as marked by the horizontal yellow line. MACD was in the max'd out condition, stochastic lines were also overbought, it took another pause for about 3 to 5 minutes, so I bought PUTS that expire at the end of the day expecting that it was at a pivot point. These puts have literally about an hour left in their life span so the premium is lost and I can pick them up for less than a dollar a piece, then I wait the half hour or so for the price to creep down to the 200 period moving average. A total movement of just around $0.75 on the SPY, and around $0.30 on the actual PUTS cost so it wasn't a blockbuster trade by any means. Typically there is a reaction at the 200 period moving average when price approaches for the 1st time, so I sold those and collected the $0.30 per, and waited until the very end of the day for the "jam session" which happens everyday in the last 10 minutes of trading. Then right before the close, I use all my profits to buy those Puts at the $500 strike that expire next Friday. Now I have an emotionless trade going using just the profits from a small trade I made today. If it goes to shyt, who cares it was a gamble anyway really, but it could also be a big winner.
The trade was a full stack of probabilities that the market was going to go down at that point, or as the gamblers say a positive EV, so we make the trade. Now at 30 cent a share, you need some volume to make the numbers pop, but it really is just a scaling issue for smaller trade account sizes. The technique remains the same for all time scales and all stocks. I like to use the SPY because it has daily expiration times, strikes at the every dollar amount and the liquidity to get in and out at any time you want.

Dude, how fast do youtype? I failed 3 times. I have trouble posting one or two sentences.

[Slurry Pumper]

The SPY chart since the October lows is astoundingly impressive. I still contend we see another ~ 10% upward before any meaningful correction, probably summer.

Meanwhile, the NVDA monster keeps gaining steam.

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just highlighting another way to extract wealth out of the markets. I think we are getting a pullback here in the markets. That doesn't mean I just dive in and say F it is time and I deem it so. We have to wait for a market signal for that. In the mean time, I can use the market behavior to get some seed money for some side bets. Below is my technique I use for bets of this nature. Do I know the markets are going down next week? No of course not, but the bet is that it will so I buy PUTS that expire next Friday. The money I use is the money I make today.



OK this is a chart from today's action with 1 minute candles on the SPY. As you can see the SPY just plotted along for the most part until around the 11:15 spot (arrow 1), when it took a pause and turned around. I didn't buy PUTS why? Well the price pulled back to support but didn't break through as shown (arrow 2). How do I know that was an area of support? The chart shows me this as price paused at about the same level starting at around 10 and staying there until 10:20 or so. So after the typical pivot happens on a daily basis, I have to wait until the price gets back to support and break down lower to buy PUTS. As it turned out it bounced off of support today and went straight back to the 100 period moving average (blue line) then came back down almost to the level of support before taking off back to the blue line again. Once it broke through that blue line, if you wanted, it could have been bought for a long position on a break out Friday creeper move. That would have been the big winning play of the day which I didn't do why? I felt that there was a greater chance the market would come back down at some point and that it wouldn't float up as high as it did. I was wrong and if floated up pretty good today. What can I say, I can't catch all the opportunities and I'm wrong more than I'm right about my prognostications. That is why I liek to gather a full stack of information to support my case before I buy anything.


Now on the same chart but zoomed in a little bit, we will see what I did do, and give an explanation on why. For reference the high of the day is marked (arrow 1), I waited for the pullback to come and bounce off of the 100 period moving average (blue line). It didn't really bounce it kind of came in punched through hung out for minute or 2 or 5 before taking back off north. Price came up to resistance as marked by the horizontal yellow line. MACD was in the max'd out condition, stochastic lines were also overbought, it took another pause for about 3 to 5 minutes, so I bought PUTS that expire at the end of the day expecting that it was at a pivot point. These puts have literally about an hour left in their life span so the premium is lost and I can pick them up for less than a dollar a piece, then I wait the half hour or so for the price to creep down to the 200 period moving average. A total movement of just around $0.75 on the SPY, and around $0.30 on the actual PUTS cost so it wasn't a blockbuster trade by any means. Typically there is a reaction at the 200 period moving average when price approaches for the 1st time, so I sold those and collected the $0.30 per, and waited until the very end of the day for the "jam session" which happens everyday in the last 10 minutes of trading. Then right before the close, I use all my profits to buy those Puts at the $500 strike that expire next Friday. Now I have an emotionless trade going using just the profits from a small trade I made today. If it goes to shyt, who cares it was a gamble anyway really, but it could also be a big winner.
The trade was a full stack of probabilities that the market was going to go down at that point, or as the gamblers say a positive EV, so we make the trade. Now at 30 cent a share, you need some volume to make the numbers pop, but it really is just a scaling issue for smaller trade account sizes. The technique remains the same for all time scales and all stocks. I like to use the SPY because it has daily expiration times, strikes at the every dollar amount and the liquidity to get in and out at any time you want.

[d2bets]

Well as I mentioned previously, when the SPY gets to 500 which it did briefly yesterday, I'm buying puts. I was away yesterday so I didn't get a chance to do so, and today being Friday, I will probably wait all day long to see if we get a Friday floater. If that happens, I'm coming in at the end of the dayish (3-4 time frame depending on the action). Light play to start the balls rolling. There is also a chance things start well and go to shyt around the typically daily pivot time of 11:30ish, in that case, I'm buying puts that expire today and will try that day trade for some superbowl seed money going into the weekend.

The SPY chart since the October lows is astoundingly impressive. I still contend we see another ~ 10% upward before any meaningful correction, probably summer.

Meanwhile, the NVDA monster keeps gaining steam.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well as I mentioned previously, when the SPY gets to 500 which it did briefly yesterday, I'm buying puts. I was away yesterday so I didn't get a chance to do so, and today being Friday, I will probably wait all day long to see if we get a Friday floater. If that happens, I'm coming in at the end of the dayish (3-4 time frame depending on the action). Light play to start the balls rolling. There is also a chance things start well and go to shyt around the typically daily pivot time of 11:30ish, in that case, I'm buying puts that expire today and will try that day trade for some superbowl seed money going into the weekend.

[Madison]

Credit card delinquency rates jumped across the board, the New York Fed and TransUnion found. Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023, the New York Fed reported. According to TransUnion’s research, “serious delinquencies,” or those 90 days or more past due, reached the highest level since 2009.

[Madison]

I was here for 1987. Barring unbridled inflation, which is poison in its own right, this just doesn't smell right to me.

BOL to all. I'm burying my nuts. LOL.

[Madison]

Few snippets:

US. households are carrying a record amount of credit card debt, according to a new Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released Tuesday. The bank said the data indicates financial distress is on the rise, particularly among younger and lower-income Americans.

Credit card delinquencies have also soared more than 50% in the past year, with the Fed's report finding that about 6.4% of all accounts are now 90 days past due, up from 4% at the end of 2022.

[Madison]

and SMCI tearing too !!!

This one kills me. I bought SM motherboard computers in the 80's. I hovered all over this one at circa 250. Another failure lately by me.

[Madison]

NVDA is certainly on a run. At this point I would have to wait until it hits 500 on a pullback to get in, or wait until it levels out for a while before I can jump in. You all those who own it, I would ride that play for all its worth. Its only been 5 weeks since it last saw $500, and since then it has gone parabolic, which is what you want, but at the same time you just can't keep it forever. There will be a day when it takes a rest for a while. I don't know when, but it will eventually.

This.

[d2bets]

for certain stocks yes, but nowhere near the breadth of spiking stocks preceding the dot.com burst.

This is a more narrow AI burst. But AI is as real as the internet was and there will be huge winners. NVDA just has such a head start and visionary leadership that it's just so hard to see them losing their dominant position for the deep foreseeable future. I said awhile ago, and still believe, they will be the market cap leader within 3-5 years. At this rate, it might be sooner.

[homie1975]

It's 1999 all over again

for certain stocks yes, but nowhere near the breadth of spiking stocks preceding the dot.com burst.

[guitarjosh]

Stop me if you've heard this one before...


NVDA shares surge 5% to another record high.

5% APR CD's? NVDA goes up 5% per day.

and SMCI tearing too !!!

It's 1999 all over again

[homie1975]

NVDA is certainly on a run. At this point I would have to wait until it hits 500 on a pullback to get in, or wait until it levels out for a while before I can jump in. You all those who own it, I would ride that play for all its worth. Its only been 5 weeks since it last saw $500, and since then it has gone parabolic, which is what you want, but at the same time you just can't keep it forever. There will be a day when it takes a rest for a while. I don't know when, but it will eventually.

yes, but "when" is the key thing.

those who are waiting for a "better" entry point might be waiting for $850 after it hits $900 and retreats.

[d2bets]

and SMCI tearing too !!!

Good PLTR move after-hours too. Lots of potential there IMO.

[d2bets]

NVDA is certainly on a run. At this point I would have to wait until it hits 500 on a pullback to get in, or wait until it levels out for a while before I can jump in. You all those who own it, I would ride that play for all its worth. Its only been 5 weeks since it last saw $500, and since then it has gone parabolic, which is what you want, but at the same time you just can't keep it forever. There will be a day when it takes a rest for a while. I don't know when, but it will eventually.

Well that's for sure. But who knows, it might shoot to $900 before it rests. I suspect they are going to 4-1 split at Feb 21 earnings.

[homie1975]

Stop me if you've heard this one before...


NVDA shares surge 5% to another record high.

5% APR CD's? NVDA goes up 5% per day.

and SMCI tearing too !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Stop me if you've heard this one before...


NVDA shares surge 5% to another record high.

5% APR CD's? NVDA goes up 5% per day.

NVDA is certainly on a run. At this point I would have to wait until it hits 500 on a pullback to get in, or wait until it levels out for a while before I can jump in. You all those who own it, I would ride that play for all its worth. Its only been 5 weeks since it last saw $500, and since then it has gone parabolic, which is what you want, but at the same time you just can't keep it forever. There will be a day when it takes a rest for a while. I don't know when, but it will eventually.

[d2bets]

Stop me if you've heard this one before...


NVDA shares surge 5% to another record high.

5% APR CD's? NVDA goes up 5% per day.

[Madison]

At this point I'm about 1.5 weeks ahead of the move down, and this up coming week we will no doubt see an attempt for the SPY to hit that magically magnetic 500 spot. If you read just a little of what I posted last week. I said the 490 spot on the SPY was a key spot and if they get beyond that the 500 spot is next and that it wouldn't take long. I still think there is a rug pull coming for February. Last week was pretty volatile with a big day down and big days up which was great for a daily wind blown trader to play. IWM and the $DJT both had down weeks so I still have the caution flag out for all you bulls out there. I smell a rug pull coming.

Hard to believe otherwise. Thx Bud, appreciated.

[Slurry Pumper]

At this point I'm about 1.5 weeks ahead of the move down, and this up coming week we will no doubt see an attempt for the SPY to hit that magically magnetic 500 spot. If you read just a little of what I posted last week. I said the 490 spot on the SPY was a key spot and if they get beyond that the 500 spot is next and that it wouldn't take long. I still think there is a rug pull coming for February. Last week was pretty volatile with a big day down and big days up which was great for a daily wind blown trader to play. IWM and the $DJT both had down weeks so I still have the caution flag out for all you bulls out there. I smell a rug pull coming.

[homie1975]

Man do I feel stupid for selling any of my Nvidia.

They are taking over the world. The chart is a thing of beauty. NVDA to $1 million per share.

[d2bets]

Man do I feel stupid for selling any of my Nvidia.

They are taking over the world. The chart is a thing of beauty. NVDA to $1 million per share.

[d2bets]

Boom !!

THE BULL MARKET CLIMBS THE WALL OF WORRY

rates stay the same through march? no problem

middle east issues? no problem.

no problem at all.

stonks gona do what stonks gona do.

Up up and away. This rally is nowhere near the end. Several more months of new highs coming.

[homie1975]

Mini-pause. Rally will resume IMO.

Boom !!

THE BULL MARKET CLIMBS THE WALL OF WORRY

rates stay the same through march? no problem

middle east issues? no problem.

no problem at all.

stonks gona do what stonks gona do.

[Chiefs83]

Ticket KXIN (Kaixin Auto)
Can someone explain what happened today, it said paused trading at some places earlier today. I did read one article but don’t know whether it’s good or bad

[d2bets]

I think we are starting to see the the pause now. I'm on neutral as of this week, with only daily CALL / PUT plays as the wind blows to keep me occupied. Actually even calling it a daily play is a lie. Most plays going forward for me this week are maybe a few hours if that.

Hi Madison, I got a kid in college and just had one graduate. It's redonkulous the markup from year to year on the tuition, and the books are the same. Then your kid at the end of the semester will just sell that $275 book back to them and get like $100 if they are lucky. When I was in school the most impressive book I ever bought was $100 about a thousand years ago just after they discovered dirt back in the day. It was a Calculus for Engineers book that I still have today on my book shelf, but no one wants to even touch that thing because of the toxic subject matter.

Mini-pause. Rally will resume IMO.

[Slurry Pumper]

The rocket ship continues full steam ahead. This should continue to be a good year. We will see a breather at some point, but I don't think that will be until later this summer. Won't be surprised to see 5,500 on the S&P before that.

I think we are starting to see the the pause now. I'm on neutral as of this week, with only daily CALL / PUT plays as the wind blows to keep me occupied. Actually even calling it a daily play is a lie. Most plays going forward for me this week are maybe a few hours if that.

Hi Madison, I got a kid in college and just had one graduate. It's redonkulous the markup from year to year on the tuition, and the books are the same. Then your kid at the end of the semester will just sell that $275 book back to them and get like $100 if they are lucky. When I was in school the most impressive book I ever bought was $100 about a thousand years ago just after they discovered dirt back in the day. It was a Calculus for Engineers book that I still have today on my book shelf, but no one wants to even touch that thing because of the toxic subject matter.

[Madison]

nice spike for you Madder but this is POST earnings now so those of us wanting to tail are probably not in a good spot today chasing a 20% gain

My friend ... put a bit into ionq/dna for the kids and forget about it. I'm a trader and always will be , you buy and hold , pls do so, I'll be gone but the kids might get a few college books. Mine graduated circa 2010. I almost had a coronary when 1 of my daughters books was $275. And that may have been the used one. LOL

[d2bets]

The rocket ship continues full steam ahead. This should continue to be a good year. We will see a breather at some point, but I don't think that will be until later this summer. Won't be surprised to see 5,500 on the S&P before that.

[homie1975]

I've offered and traded SOFI successfully for years. Noto is a sharp dude and holds a ton of stock. I just bought a bunch pre-earnings. This is worth your time following.

nice spike for you Madder but this is POST earnings now so those of us wanting to tail are probably not in a good spot today chasing a 20% gain

[Madison]

I've offered and traded SOFI successfully for years. Noto is a sharp dude and holds a ton of stock. I just bought a bunch pre-earnings. This is worth your time following.

[Madison]

Well, I had a bwer an then that turned into a couple of hits off the bowl, and before I knew it I was in a full fledged getting hammered scenario yesterday. Let me put up a few more things before football hits today.

To look at the overall markets, you have to look at the financials because things don't typically move with out the participation of the banks.

This is the same 2 year chart of the XLF with weekly candle sticks.



Once again I marked up when the 20 period moving average (orange line) got far away from the price action, and at the end of the last week, we again have a situation where the stochastic lines are overbought, the MACD is extreme, and the 20 period moving average is far away.
Look at that run since last October, after doing the math if you were so lucky as to catch the bottom, that was a 23% move, and redonkulous percentage if you play options.

Moving on to the 5 year chart with monthly candle closes.


You can see that the candle from this month, which still has a couple of days to go, is right at a level of pretty good resistance. The last time the XLF was at this level, it played around with the $38.50ish spot for a year as shown with the yellow line. We do have to take note however of the stochastic lines still pointing up and not being overbought with the lines pretty far apart, all bullish.

Lets sniff out the VIX index on the same 2 year chart with weekly candle closes.


I don't know if I've seen the VIX this low since the China virus hitting the world, and as the saying goes when the VIX is high you buy, when its low you go.

All in all, things don't look that bad on the charts, there is no imminent danger that can be pointed to on the horizon that warrants an impending doom. I do think that the markets as a whole have had a nice run and a pullback would be healthy at this point because of the 20 period moving average being so far away from the price on many indicator charts. Next week we get the Fed coming out and while there is a possibility the SPY gets goosed to the 500 spot, if it is reached I would be a buyer of monthly PUT options. Generally, I'll be playing it light here as the likelihood of continuing to rise is more risky than a probable stalling or pullback.

Dude been a long time since I enjoyed a similar high. I tend to get very finite via past history. At least for me sometimes you need to bring your much apprecciated help, back down to those of us normal beings , ability to digest.

Hopefully the couch is in your immediate plans for Sunday. LOL

[Madison]

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (DNA)

Cathie Wood's purchase of 731,000 shares of DNA on Jan. 17 of this year for inclusion in ARKK caught the eye of many investors. When she followed that up by buying an additional 755,000 shares for the fund two days later, interest in this unique company began to climb.
DNA utilizes advanced gene splicing and gene editing techniques to literally reprogram the cells of organisms and produce useful and beneficial products. The applications of its technology ranges from novel therapeutics for humans and animals to enhancing food ingredients to helping develop clean energy sources.

Their customers are pharmaceutical companies, the agricultural industry, energy companies, chemical manufactures and food processing firms.
With her recent purchases, Cathie Wood's ARKK holds more than 124 million shares of DNA valued at just over $154 million. DNA represents 2% of that $9.3 billion ETF.

Gentlemen, the future is agriculture and ones ability to satisfy America's food needs. The industry as a whole is surging toward genetically engeneerid/altered veg/prod. Indoor farms and genetically engineered food is coming like a tidal wave. LMK if anyone has any other constructive thoughts/ideas.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well, I had a bwer an then that turned into a couple of hits off the bowl, and before I knew it I was in a full fledged getting hammered scenario yesterday. Let me put up a few more things before football hits today.

To look at the overall markets, you have to look at the financials because things don't typically move with out the participation of the banks.

This is the same 2 year chart of the XLF with weekly candle sticks.



Once again I marked up when the 20 period moving average (orange line) got far away from the price action, and at the end of the last week, we again have a situation where the stochastic lines are overbought, the MACD is extreme, and the 20 period moving average is far away.
Look at that run since last October, after doing the math if you were so lucky as to catch the bottom, that was a 23% move, and redonkulous percentage if you play options.

Moving on to the 5 year chart with monthly candle closes.


You can see that the candle from this month, which still has a couple of days to go, is right at a level of pretty good resistance. The last time the XLF was at this level, it played around with the $38.50ish spot for a year as shown with the yellow line. We do have to take note however of the stochastic lines still pointing up and not being overbought with the lines pretty far apart, all bullish.

Lets sniff out the VIX index on the same 2 year chart with weekly candle closes.


I don't know if I've seen the VIX this low since the China virus hitting the world, and as the saying goes when the VIX is high you buy, when its low you go.

All in all, things don't look that bad on the charts, there is no imminent danger that can be pointed to on the horizon that warrants an impending doom. I do think that the markets as a whole have had a nice run and a pullback would be healthy at this point because of the 20 period moving average being so far away from the price on many indicator charts. Next week we get the Fed coming out and while there is a possibility the SPY gets goosed to the 500 spot, if it is reached I would be a buyer of monthly PUT options. Generally, I'll be playing it light here as the likelihood of continuing to rise is more risky than a probable stalling or pullback.