Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

If you value your $$ I recommend taking the time to read this article. Link below.

Short excerpt : In 2007, 35% of new FHA [Federal Housing Administration] borrowers had debt-to-income ratios above 43%.
By 2020, 54% did.
As housing prices and inflation surged, borrowers became more stretched.
The FHA kept insuring mortgages to borrowers who were increasingly leveraged. About 64% of FHA borrowers last year exceeded the 43% threshold.
The FHA loan portfolio is far riskier than it was before the 2008 housing crisis.
Under the guise of Covid relief, the Biden administration masked the growing troubles in the housing market by paying off borrowers and mortgage servicers to prevent foreclosures.
Of the 52,531 FHA loans last year that went seriously delinquent within their first year, only nine resulted in foreclosure.
The FHA instituted a program that pays mortgage servicers to make borrowers’ missed payments for them. Missed payments are added to the loan’s principal, but without interest…
One result is that many FHA borrowers owe more than their original mortgage and more than their homes are worth. They are essentially trapped in their homes even if they want to sell and move…
Another result is that home prices keep increasing because borrowers who don’t pay their mortgages—and never should have qualified for loans—can’t get foreclosed on or be forced to sell their homes.

The Danger that Could Derail Our Economy

[homie1975]

a little more relief today, but April 2 is bearing down on us..

[homie1975]

i am swing trading TQQQ, SPXL, UDOW. these are 3 to 4x leveraged ETF's on the indexes. i buy the dips and i sell the rips. i do this in my Roth IRA. all tax free whenever i decide to withdraw.

long term i am buying more NVDA and PLTR on dips.

[homie1975]

don't spam the forum Gents, with new stock threads, just post in here.

this week i am watching:

- Fed comments on Wednesday
- Trump tariffs on auto industry abroad probably Wednesday also

things are still very fluid.

right now the soup du jour is Buy the F'ing dips and Sell the F'ing Rips

too much uncertainty out there at these levels,

back to back incredible years so the markets are looking for any reason to sell.

[homie1975]

thank God for the relief rally today but we will need a lot more than this.

we need a catalyst or two to bring us back

[Itsamazing777]

Are we great again?

Yes

[Madison]

Please post more! Josh.

[pavyracer]

Are we great again?

[k13]

Investors love volatility.
That's how you make money.

But for the better of the real economy, money needs to be erased. Only way to lower prices.

Every asset crashing 75% would only take us back to normal.

[k13]

Stocks generally ultimately go higher, but the market is speaking and the market does not like the uncertainty and neither do businesses. It is possibly that it might take awhile to recover. Trump was handed a great economy on platter and he is doing his darndest to eff it up.

The economy was and is terrible.
The stock market is not the economy.

1% of people can pump a market to infinity.

[guitarjosh]

REPUBLICANS VS. DEMOCRATS BY THE NUMBERS THE LAST 50 YEARSYEARS HELD PRESIDENCY
Republicans 28
Democrats 22

STOCK MARKET RETURN
Republicans 109%
Democrats 992%

INCOME GROWTH
Republicans .6%
Democrats 2.2%

TOTAL JOBS CREATED
Republicans 24 million
Democrats 42 million

GDP
Republicans 2.7%
Democrats 4.1%

Nice, but you really didn’t address my points. Average weekly Fed Funds rate:

Reagan: ~9.5%
H.W. Bush: ~6.8%
Clinton: ~5.2%
W. Bush: ~3.1%
Obama: ~0.5%

Lower rates help strengthen the economy.

Here’s the market returns based on which party has the congress and which has the presidency.

[pavyracer]

The problem is that by late 2023 the market hadn't really gone anywhere when adjusted for inflation. It rose in 2021 because of all the stimulus. The economy might tank under Trump, but a lot of that will be because of what he inherited from Biden, like the aftermath of an inverted yield curve, FHA guarantees subprime loans which can turn into 2008 II, etc.



Reagan & Volker crushed inflation and gave us a strong stock market. In 45 years, we've had 3 democrats as president. The NASDAQ & S&P didn't really do anything in Clinton's first 2 years and Biden's first 3 years when you factor in inflation, & Obama had the most proactive Fed in history with ZIRP & QE. Things were fine under Trump until Covid. H. W. Bush had a mild recession brought on by 9.75% interest rates, W. had 2008 due to the widespread belief that housing prices wouldn't ever go down.

REPUBLICANS VS. DEMOCRATS BY THE NUMBERS THE LAST 50 YEARS HELD PRESIDENCY
Republicans 28
Democrats 22

STOCK MARKET RETURN
Republicans 109%
Democrats 992%

INCOME GROWTH
Republicans .6%
Democrats 2.2%

TOTAL JOBS CREATED
Republicans 24 million
Democrats 42 million

GDP
Republicans 2.7%
Democrats 4.1%

[guitarjosh]

Market had already risen before that in 2022. I'm afraid this is just the start, but I do hope I'm wrong.
Next 4 years will be very rocky. I'd be happy enough with a flat 4 years and survival.

The problem is that by late 2023 the market hadn't really gone anywhere when adjusted for inflation. It rose in 2021 because of all the stimulus. The economy might tank under Trump, but a lot of that will be because of what he inherited from Biden, like the aftermath of an inverted yield curve, FHA guarantees subprime loans which can turn into 2008 II, etc.

The stocks will surge again when a Democrat is in charge of the country. All Republican presidents the last 45 years have given the country high inflation and tanked the stock market. Do some research. Sell everything now and wait 4 more years to invest again. Put in money market account and earn 4% before you lose it all with Trump.

Reagan & Volker crushed inflation and gave us a strong stock market. In 45 years, we've had 3 democrats as president. The NASDAQ & S&P didn't really do anything in Clinton's first 2 years and Biden's first 3 years when you factor in inflation, & Obama had the most proactive Fed in history with ZIRP & QE. Things were fine under Trump until Covid. H. W. Bush had a mild recession brought on by 9.75% interest rates, W. had 2008 due to the widespread belief that housing prices wouldn't ever go down.

[Madison]

Good, Bad, indifferent, it's good to see a little commentary in here.

[pavyracer]

A Democrat isn't going to be in office for a long long time...

Well I hope the 4% on your savings will last a while before you run out of funds with 10% inflation for ever. Let us know how poor you are in a long time.

[Itsamazing777]

The stocks will surge again when a Democrat is in charge of the country. All Republican presidents the last 45 years have given the country high inflation and tanked the stock market. Do some research. Sell everything now and wait 4 more years to invest again. Put in money market account and earn 4% before you lose it all with Trump.

A Democrat isn't going to be in office for a long long time...

[pavyracer]

You people don't understand that a small fluctuation at first is normal. Long term is the goal. Rates will go down stocks will surge. Only a matter of time

The stocks will surge again when a Democrat is in charge of the country. All Republican presidents the last 45 years have given the country high inflation and tanked the stock market. Do some research. Sell everything now and wait 4 more years to invest again. Put in money market account and earn 4% before you lose it all with Trump.

[d2bets]

The S&P 500 is down 6% from an all time high. Did you call the over 20% drop in 2022 the Biden Crash?

Market had already risen before that in 2022. I'm afraid this is just the start, but I do hope I'm wrong.
Next 4 years will be very rocky. I'd be happy enough with a flat 4 years and survival.

[trobin31]

S&P Performance after two straight +20% years usually poor the 3rd year. Especially in the 2nd half.
Unless this AI boom is really a repeat of dotcom where 1995/96 was followed by 30% in ‘97, hard to make a case for an up year.
currently more than 50% chance for rate cut in June & odds for more than 3 cuts rose recently

[guitarjosh]

The Trump Crash continues. When you thrash around and break things without knowing what you're doing, things get broken. Go figure.

The S&P 500 is down 6% from an all time high. Did you call the over 20% drop in 2022 the Biden Crash?

[d2bets]

You people don't understand that a small fluctuation at first is normal. Long term is the goal. Rates will go down stocks will surge. Only a matter of time

Stocks generally ultimately go higher, but the market is speaking and the market does not like the uncertainty and neither do businesses. It is possibly that it might take awhile to recover. Trump was handed a great economy on platter and he is doing his darndest to eff it up.

[Itsamazing777]

You people don't understand that a small fluctuation at first is normal. Long term is the goal. Rates will go down stocks will surge. Only a matter of time

[d2bets]

a bull in a china shop and we are "the china" lol

The market and businesses in the USA can absorb and thrive under most conditions and policies and direction. But the one thing the market and businesses can't absorb is complete and utter uncertainty and instability and day-to-day shifts in policy. Businesses can't plan under those conditions, and if you can't plan well you can't do business.

[homie1975]

The Trump Crash continues. When you thrash around and break things without knowing what you're doing, things get broken. Go figure.

a bull in a china shop and we are "the china" lol

[d2bets]

The Trump Crash continues. When you thrash around and break things without knowing what you're doing, things get broken. Go figure.

[homie1975]

7 YEAR ANNIVERSARY of the START of this thread !!!!

Thank you so very much to all who have contributed, past, present and future !!!

[pavyracer]

Only 6 weeks with Trump shenanigans of trying to "fix" Biden's economy and stock market that was not doing good. At this point someone needs to yell in his face that if it ain't broke don't fix it!

[homie1975]

pure manipulation:


PoliticsTrump could scale back Canada, Mexico tariffs Wednesday, Lutnick says

Published Tue, Mar 4 20255:18 PM ESTUpdated An Hour Ago

Kevin Breuninger@KevinWilliamB




ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email





Key Points

• President Donald Trump will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday, which could scale back his new 25% tariffs on top U.S trading partners, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.
• The comments came after the U.S. stock market limped to a close for a second day of sharp declines.
• The Trump administration enacted sweeping tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports after putting them on pause for a month.

[trobin31]

We are absolutely going to get a generational buying opportunity just not yet. It happens almost everytime we get GOP president, 10 year double inverting, Giga trendlines going back to Great Depression getting kissed above head. Once whatever blackswan is lined up to occur happens then the helicopter money will start to rain. They are already setting the stage saying supposed DOGE savings will be distributed to citizens. My guess is some crack in the cyber or financial system occurs, A US stable coin is announced then everyone gets their money in crypto. For this reason Coinbase is probably worth a long term investment. I feel we are still in stage 5 run up at least this year.

[pavyracer]

The lower it goes the better.
Just buy the stocks you like cheaper.

That's a good point. Bought some this morning and they are up already. This is why you need to have like 25-50% cash in your portfolio to buy when is oversold and then sit back until it happens again.

[homie1975]

Every one relax, it's not time to go parachuting out the windows just yet. We have finally reached a support area today.

PUMPer !! great to see you man!!

actually i do not believe today's support line will hold.

i see us lower by friday's close.

[k13]

The lower it goes the better.
Just buy the stocks you like cheaper.

[Slurry Pumper]

Every one relax, it's not time to go parachuting out the windows just yet. We have finally reached a support area today.

[Madison]

what is the 10 year telling us?

Best question??

[homie1975]

If we were going to see a recession soon, we would see it first in the junk bond market, and junk bonds are doing just fine.

what is the 10 year telling us?