Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

thanks Madder. my grammar was pretty weak on that post. i am very tired but i am fine. i was helping an elderly loved one out and was taking shifts at the hospital pre and post surgery and sleeping in the room. i do not sleep well when not in my bed but it beats my uncle who was in the actual hospital bed and operating table.

back at it now and trying to figure out this market. i cannot, though. it is the most uncertain and unsure i have felt day to day on the market in over 7 years since this thread started.

All I can add is "No Regrets". I sacrificed many of my prime years caring for mom and then dad. Siblings went about their business and I did the best I could. Bottom line ... I lay my head on the pillow each night knowing I gave them my best. My siblings no idea/conscience??

All my best!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This thread always has some cross-over with the Bitcoin thread. Someone has to answer for:
*How the US treasuries are not being bought up?

I think this is a huge story. Change is in the air, boys.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Down 20% bounce back 20%. National Debt not receding. I gave my portfolio a haircut here. Much like Buffet buy when it crashes and sell when it's oversold.

OK, Mad. What's up with IONQ?

+38% today! And I am holding some, based on your tip. Thank You!

[homie1975]

i just got returned home and came up for some air.

Hopefully you are ok. At my age you start to understand the real value of "Health".

thanks Madder. my grammar was pretty weak on that post. i am very tired but i am fine. i was helping an elderly loved one out and was taking shifts at the hospital pre and post surgery and sleeping in the room. i do not sleep well when not in my bed but it beats my uncle who was in the actual hospital bed and operating table.

back at it now and trying to figure out this market. i cannot, though. it is the most uncertain and unsure i have felt day to day on the market in over 7 years since this thread started.

[Madison]

MADder and CHUCKer and company
i just got returned home and came up for some air.

hope you all are holding up well and we can see some more sunny skies here again.

i honestly do not know. for the first time in a very long time, i have no strong feel for which way we will go from here.

good health and good luck all

i just got returned home and came up for some air.

Hopefully you are ok. At my age you start to understand the real value of "Health".

[Madison]

This will either sober you up or cause you to head for the liquor cabinet.

Fast-forward two years, and Moody's is now the last of the "Big Three" to acknowledge the government's awful debt situation. Uncle Sam's fiscal deficit is north of $36 trillion today. That's $1.66 trillion higher than just a year ago and $11.15 trillion higher than five years ago.

With interest, the debt has increased by an average of $4.54 billion per day over the past year... or $3.15 million per minute... or $52,493 per second. Meanwhile, the U.S. budget deficit for the last fiscal year was $1.8 trillion. The U.S. government is drowned in liabilities.

[Madison]

Albemarle (ALB). Do yourself a favor and read this short article and consider starting a position. The pieces and parts are worth more than the $57 a share.

Albemarle (ALB) Stock Forecast: Major Run Possible This Year

[homie1975]

MADder and CHUCKer and company
i just got returned home and came up for some air.

hope you all are holding up well and we can see some more sunny skies here again.

i honestly do not know. for the first time in a very long time, i have no strong feel for which way we will go from here.

good health and good luck all

[Madison]

Down 20% bounce back 20%. National Debt not receding. I gave my portfolio a haircut here. Much like Buffet buy when it crashes and sell when it's oversold.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to the lawsuit I referenced. SMLR agreed to a $29M fine. Do your own due-diligence b4 investing:
https://www.ainvest.com/news/semler-...ttlement-2504/

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I've commented on SMLR before. I won't claim to know EVERYTHING:

1) Eric Semler has employed a Bitcoin treasury standard. He's using the Saylor playbook to strengthen the asset side of his Balance Sheet.
2) I know that SMLR was facing a lawsuit. That may have held back their stock performance.
3) If lawsuit is in the rear-view mirror, that may tie to their current success.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, I know it's just one day. SMLR +16% today!

SMLR 2 , SEMLER SCIENTIFIC INC

Quantity

Price$37.03

Price Change+$5.24

Market Value$

Day Change+16.48%

Gain Loss-37.87%

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Someone could write a book on collateral damage with regard to stocks. A large part of my portfolio has been built likewise. Many people don't understand that it's inherently due to the prevalence of ETF's. Like them or hate them.

Mad, good point. Plz expound on that a little.

Here's what I've learned about ETFs. When a company starts an ETF fund, that means that THEY must buy each stock in an index so that their overall investment balances (closely) to the underlying stocks. With this in mind, it means that each underlying stock has some inherent demand, even if said stock is not performing particularly well.

[Madison]

That's my thinking. I bought the other 3 as their recent drop was collateral damage from UNH but they could bounce quicker as they don't have the legal issues of UNH to deal with. Also by spreading my money to all 4 it reduces my risk on all go down big at the same time.

Someone could write a book on collateral damage with regard to stocks. A large part of my portfolio has been built likewise. Many people don't understand that it's inherently due to the prevalence of ETF's. Like them or hate them.

[Madison]

This short read should answer all your questions:

CRISPR Stock: Is It Finally Ready to Deliver on Its Big Promise?

Add what AI could possibly add??

[pavyracer]

Difficult to not like.

I've been trading (as posted here previously) UNH between 460-600 quite successfully for a few years. I got hurt recently pretty badly in the last month as I sold circa 600 and started rebuying circa 450. Hard to not really like this play IMHO as long as they don't get convicted of Medicare Fraud. I guess the others would benefit right?

That's my thinking. I bought the other 3 as their recent drop was collateral damage from UNH but they could bounce quicker as they don't have the legal issues of UNH to deal with. Also by spreading my money to all 4 it reduces my risk on all go down big at the same time.

[Madison]

I picked up some UNH, HUM, CI, ELV at the opening. I believe the whole sector is oversold right now they should bounce back by the end of the year or sooner. It's a money-making business if you are in the game long-term. I sold all my MSTR at 415 for a 55% profit and spread it all on these 4 health insurance stocks.

Difficult to not like.

I've been trading (as posted here previously) UNH between 460-600 quite successfully for a few years. I got hurt recently pretty badly in the last month as I sold circa 600 and started rebuying circa 450. Hard to not really like this play IMHO as long as they don't get convicted of Medicare Fraud. I guess the others would benefit right?

[Madison]

A Baby Receives the First Customized CRISPR Treatment

[Madison]

Madison,
What are we doing here with CRSP?
Should I be hammering this?

This short read should answer all your questions:

CRISPR Stock: Is It Finally Ready to Deliver on Its Big Promise?

[pavyracer]

I picked up some UNH, HUM, CI, ELV at the opening. I believe the whole sector is oversold right now they should bounce back by the end of the year or sooner. It's a money-making business if you are in the game long-term. I sold all my MSTR at 415 for a 55% profit and spread it all on these 4 health insurance stocks.

[Madison]

Madison,
What are we doing here with CRSP?
Should I be hammering this?

Hi,

No to hammering here. Establish a 20% (?) position. Stock will possibly be volatile for a bit as established positive earnings may take a bit. On the other hand this is bleeding edge technology and if/when it gets further FDA approvals and they see positive/proven results this guy could be a moonshot. This stock is my "home run" category.

It's a 10/100x just waiting to happen. Question is if/when. I have 3-5% of my total equity portfolio earmarked for my grandchildren and futuristic Quantum/Gene Therapy/etc.

If you read the accompanying material one of the keys is to watch who is backing. Gates etc.

Good luck!!

[KnuckleHeadz]

Madison,
What are we doing here with CRSP?
Should I be hammering this?

[Madison]

CRSP 2 minute video. If this doesn't blow your mind I don't what will??

How CRISPR works, explained in two minutes | Watch

[Madison]

Here's one to put on your radar. FYI, I have about 3% of my portfolio (speculative/gambling) 10x or more stocks.

I had been a NVDA investor and was the first here to mention "Quantum" which I am doing very well with. I own IONQ at about $2 DCA, and several others.

Be sure to watch the video. Full disclosure ... I have about 40 shares.

Can Buying CRISPR Therapeutics and Holding It Forever Make You a Millionaire?

CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP) will be releasing its Q1 2025 earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, May 14

[Madison]

When they start questioning the inevitability of your existence, I suspect you are here!!

Should We Use CRISPR to Create Disease-Resistant Species — Or Is That Playing God? | Watch

[Madison]

This place is quiet on stock discussion. I'd like to see more talk to find the hidden gems.

Here's one to put on your radar. FYI, I have about 3% of my portfolio (speculative/gambling) 10x or more stocks.

I had been a NVDA investor and was the first here to mention "Quantum" which I am doing very well with. I own IONQ at about $2 DCA, and several others.

Be sure to watch the video. Full disclosure ... I have about 40 shares.

Can Buying CRISPR Therapeutics and Holding It Forever Make You a Millionaire?

[pavyracer]

Guarantied ... i've posted more here than the original author in the last year or so. Mutiny I say. LOL

This place is quiet on stock discussion. I'd like to see more talk to find the hidden gems.

[Madison]

Guarantied ... i've posted more here than the original author in the last year or so. Mutiny I say. LOL

[Madison]

Don't anyone ever post a stock thread other than this?? (Posted a month or so ago).

Will post "Updated Daily" ... Please post or change the title.

[Madison]

Curtesy Luke Lango Investor Place

One especially powerful indicator he tracks is the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator. This indicator triggers when the percentage of advancing stocks on the NYSE (measured over a 10-day moving average) rises from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 trading days.
This rare surge in market breadth suggests that many stocks are suddenly moving higher, often marking the end of a bearish phase and the beginning of a major rally.
As you’re likely guessing, the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator just triggered – last Thursday, to be exact.
Here’s Luke with more details:
The ZBT has only flashed 18 times since World War II. In every single instance, stocks were higher a year later — with average gains of 25%.
That’s not noise. That’s a signal.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 just last week notched three straight days of gains over 1.5%. That’s another rare signal. Since 1950, every time that’s happened, stocks have been higher a year later — every single time — with average gains of 10%.

[Madison]

Curtesy of Stansberry.

As of last Friday, the slope of the S&P 500's 200-DMA has fallen in 16 consecutive sessions.
The last time the S&P 500's 200-DMA "turned over" like this was (again) in the first half of 2022, right as a major leg down in the index took shape into summer. That year's bear market didn't bottom until that October.

[adam3]

Try to trade on a daily basis or even a weekly basis you

[marco1313]

This could be a deep debate but just some comments and notes are all I can give. The ALL-WEATHER Portfolio isn't supposed to beat the S&P 500, and it doesn't. Nor should you expect it to. From my understanding the sp500 historically returns 9% the RAY is a tick under 5%. the draw down or AKA beta factor is 40% less with RAY then the sp500. The devaluation of the dollar is what gold, silver, copper, oil, Interational stocks are for.
Today with the above example post above it only lost -$502 a tickle above 1/2%. Built in hedges are the reason. The hedges equate to 11% but are3x inverse, even if the market goes up you will get the benefit of growth. Skeptical about dividends I see! the only explanation I have for this would be say you buy in for $100 over a short term like 18 months you get the whole 100 back in whatever timed pay installments. The original 100 has now dropped to 42 well you still made 42%. If I need anything at all from an investment and that time frame is less than 5 years, It's safe to say that person doesn't belong investing
So how much money does one need to live? Thats where the problem lies.
homeowner -vs- renter
car owner -vs- leasing or payment (DRASTIC difference on the insurance side)
aldi's -vs- whole foods
private HSA -vs- traditional healthcare
debt free -vs- lets live in debt with a credit card
ect ect

Really solid points. I think a lot of people overlook that the All-Weather portfolio is about risk management, not outperformance. It's designed to survive different economic environments, not necessarily beat the S&P 500. And you're absolutely right living costs, lifestyle choices, and personal debt levels are huge factors that impact how much investment risk someone can or should take. Dividends might not be the silver bullet against currency devaluation, but they still have a role depending on the bigger financial picture.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This could be a deep debate but just some comments and notes are all I can give. The ALL-WEATHER Portfolio isn't supposed to beat the S&P 500, and it doesn't. Nor should you expect it to. From my understanding the sp500 historically returns 9% the RAY is a tick under 5%. the draw down or AKA beta factor is 40% less with RAY then the sp500. The devaluation of the dollar is what gold, silver, copper, oil, Interational stocks are for.
Today with the above example post above it only lost -$502 a tickle above 1/2%. Built in hedges are the reason. The hedges equate to 11% but are3x inverse, even if the market goes up you will get the benefit of growth. Skeptical about dividends I see! the only explanation I have for this would be say you buy in for $100 over a short term like 18 months you get the whole 100 back in whatever timed pay installments. The original 100 has now dropped to 42 well you still made 42%. If I need anything at all from an investment and that time frame is less than 5 years, It's safe to say that person doesn't belong investing
So how much money does one need to live? Thats where the problem lies.
homeowner -vs- renter
car owner -vs- leasing or payment (DRASTIC difference on the insurance side)
aldi's -vs- whole foods
private HSA -vs- traditional healthcare
debt free -vs- lets live in debt with a credit card
ect ect

Hi, veri. Thx for your post. Life is about learning, and you know I respect your opinion.

I will digest a lot of what you say. A lot to consider:
1) Home Ownership has long been viewed as a solid investment with people who have extra capital available. I think that is dubious in the near future. Rent vs Own is a good debate.
2) I've written about the Car ownership. Holy shit, you talk about a money-drain. If I was on a short-lease, I'd think about selling my car and riding a bike.
3) Credit card use - The BEST users can be on the + side of things. But many of us let the interest slide, and it becomes an albatross.

We'll talk more later.

[pavyracer]

china flexed again last night, saying they will retaliate against any countries who we (the USA) try to use to isolate china.

donnie is getting boxed in.

the walls are closing in.

he can run but he cannot hide.

china is in this to win this.

heavyweight fight, Ali v Frazier.

i do not know which one we are at this point.

it is a coinflip.

I think if the big boys earnings, which gave him a million each for favors, turn out to be bad the pressure to abandon the tariffs would be immense. Like another 10% drop in a day or two and Trump would be done and ready to wave the white flag.