Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*I bought the SMLR hype some time ago. Bought in too high, it's been a net-loser for me:
...That said, it's ripping today! +15.6%

Another one that I've slowly been = STRC
...When people figure out that BTC is an asset, I think STRC will be more sought out in the Fixed Income sector.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*I bought the SMLR hype some time ago. Bought in too high, it's been a net-loser for me:
...That said, it's ripping today! +15.6%

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A few updates:
1) Bought a little Marriott stock (MAR). My reasoning is not complicated. I enjoy staying at their hotels. They maintain a high standard. MAR has done well in L12 months, I expect MAR to outperform other hotels.

2) Strong on Copper and Silver. I like the Sprott ETFs.

3) I've done well on GBTC. But I've slowly been selling some off. Exp Ratio is too high, compared to other options.

[Tommy Karate]

Have posted in here several times. Always appreciate the knowledge:
*Have picked up some good tips in here. Win or lose, always appreciate the insights.

Have a pretty clear view of the portfolio I'm trying to build. Sometimes tricky to get the percentages right. At the moment I'm trying to figure out the good "stabilizers." I view the Fixed Income market as being very interesting. Buffett, for example, holds a surprisingly high % of his assets in low-risk investments.

Don’t overthink things. If you’re holding for at least 2-3 years just buy QQQ, SPY and IBIT. I’m pretty much done investing in stocks - way too much manipulation by market makers.

I have been swing trading alt coin futures and doing pretty well focusing on the same 8-10 coins. They mostly follow BTC’s current trend.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The transports, especially the commercial truck makers, are performing great. It looks like the insiders think the economy is about to take off.

Thx, josh! Always liked your insights. Hope you're doing well.

Maybe one parallel to your comment. I've been investing in Copper. Feel like the Cu/Au ratio will continue to rise. Copper was a GREAT winner in 2025. Feel like Cu is a low-risk investment that doesn't have much downside.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Most of you don't understand the importance of what I'm about to say here.

QT Quantitative Tightening: Or lack thereof Just announced by the fed. We've been tightening or squeezing liquidity for say 2 years which should be a negative for equities, and yet they've been thriving. Or at least a small group.

Now the fed despite easing interest rates 1.5%, while tightening liquidity, decides to cease tightening and in effect apply a double stimulus to the economy by ceasing tightening. Seems to me (from afar) this is a SERIOUS warning. They've been putting proverbial fingers in the dike. Despite some doomsayers, I'm really surprised someone hasn't caught on to this and mother market hasn't reacted.

Color me blind, but the dark clouds are circulating, and the more liquidity they apply YOU should be concerned. Personally, I'm shadowing Mr Buffet and a few others and positioning my portfolio very conservatively.

All my best,

Another follow-up on this. Mad makes a great point:
*My novice interpretation = When the Money Supply bloats, the pro-rata value of every asset goes up as well. Effectively, cost of Capital goes up.
...The investment analysts have picked up on this. This has run at a rate of at least 7%+ in the USA for the last decade.

...If QE is taking hold, then Monetary Inflation will run hotter than 7%. Cost of Capital on the rise?

MAD, feel free to critique. Let me know what parts I got wrong.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Most of you don't understand the importance of what I'm about to say here.

QT Quantitative Tightening: Or lack thereof Just announced by the fed. We've been tightening or squeezing liquidity for say 2 years which should be a negative for equities, and yet they've been thriving. Or at least a small group.

Now the fed despite easing interest rates 1.5%, while tightening liquidity, decides to cease tightening and in effect apply a double stimulus to the economy by ceasing tightening. Seems to me (from afar) this is a SERIOUS warning. They've been putting proverbial fingers in the dike. Despite some doomsayers, I'm really surprised someone hasn't caught on to this and mother market hasn't reacted.

Color me blind, but the dark clouds are circulating, and the more liquidity they apply YOU should be concerned. Personally, I'm shadowing Mr Buffet and a few others and positioning my portfolio very conservatively.

All my best,

No, Mad! Your comments are very timely.

This concept of Money Supply is huge. My source are saying that Quantitative Easing is coming. Ties out to the macro backdrop.

Bump to this thread. It's been time-tested. I pick up good ideas in here.

My view is that people are looking for alternatives to the USD. The metal trend is worth noting. Silver was top-performing asset of 2025 (+142%).

[Madison]

Maddy
4.3% GDP is why the market is holding. Running it hot.

Happy and healthy new year to you and yours.

I've tried to keep this thread alive but I think the final fork has been driven??

[homie1975]

Maddy
4.3% GDP is why the market is holding. Running it hot.

[Madison]

Most of you don't understand the importance of what I'm about to say here.

QT Quantitative Tightening: Or lack thereof Just announced by the fed. We've been tightening or squeezing liquidity for say 2 years which should be a negative for equities, and yet they've been thriving. Or at least a small group.

Now the fed despite easing interest rates 1.5%, while tightening liquidity, decides to cease tightening and in effect apply a double stimulus to the economy by ceasing tightening. Seems to me (from afar) this is a SERIOUS warning. They've been putting proverbial fingers in the dike. Despite some doomsayers, I'm really surprised someone hasn't caught on to this and mother market hasn't reacted.

Color me blind, but the dark clouds are circulating, and the more liquidity they apply YOU should be concerned. Personally, I'm shadowing Mr Buffet and a few others and positioning my portfolio very conservatively.

All my best,

[Madison]

This is what I'm planning to do for 2026. I will take the $5,000 DOGE check and add it to the $2,000 tax rebate check and combine it with the $2,000 health insurance cash and use it as a down payment to get a 50 year mortgage. Then rent the house and pay the mortgage off with the rent and make money from the rental.

Hindsight. "If I knew now what I didn't know then". 2007 (The Big Short) set me up for retirement. It's a LONG story, but I had a few very good years. IF I had taken those profits and bought RE investments for .20 on the dollar I would be a VERY wealthy man now.

[pavyracer]

Per CNBC "US to begin garnishing wages of student loan defaulters week of Jan 7/2026." A quick Google search suggests that could be circa 10 MIL borrowers. How does that not put a serious dent in consumer spending or 70% of our GDP.

Lot of numbers not adding up to a rosy 2026????

This is what I'm planning to do for 2026. I will take the $5,000 DOGE check and add it to the $2,000 tax rebate check and combine it with the $2,000 health insurance cash and use it as a down payment to get a 50 year mortgage. Then rent the house and pay the mortgage off with the rent and make money from the rental.

[Madison]

Per CNBC "US to begin garnishing wages of student loan defaulters week of Jan 7/2026." A quick Google search suggests that could be circa 10 MIL borrowers. How does that not put a serious dent in consumer spending or 70% of our GDP.

Lot of numbers not adding up to a rosy 2026????

[Madison]

It's been years since being here.

Happy Holidays boys. Here's to a Santa rally and green 2026

What cha got bud??

[chase1]

It's been years since being here.

Happy Holidays boys. Here's to a Santa rally and green 2026

[Madison]

Please help me understand why 120 or so years of history is unlikely to repeat itself.

[homie1975]

Happy Holidays, Homie !

[Madison]

Happy Holidays Chucky and others.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Recipe for disaster!!

The top 10 US stocks now account for roughly 35% of the overall market, up from just 18% a decade ago.

1) Nice note, Mad. Thank You!
2) Happy Holidays, everyone. This STOCK MKT thread has been one of the best long-run threads at SBR. Everyone has knowledge on a certain sector.
3) I've picked up on the tips that people list. Have picked up several tips from people. Win or lose, thank you for the knowledge.
4) Per Mad's note, I do wonder about the high P/E ratios. And the high-end Mag7 stocks may be way over-valued. Just my two cents.
5) Re: my own portfolio, I've said on here several times that I carry a higher weight on Bitcoin stocks and Metal stocks. At the moment the Metal stocks are ripping. I'm particularly bullish on Silver and Copper. Bitcoin ETFs have dipped, but I do wonder about big-players positioning themselves. I think the Silver surge has stolen some of the Bitcoin thunder.

[Madison]

Recipe for disaster!!

The top 10 US stocks now account for roughly 35% of the overall market, up from just 18% a decade ago.

[homie1975]

Mexico 50% tariff on China cutting off the "back door" to the usa.

Market dropping in futures.

[ProSportsEdge]

No idea what your saying. Interest rate rate hikes, and cuts,are always built into the market based on key data released. The trend isnt some wild roller coaster ride.

Fair point. The market usually prices in rate hikes or cuts ahead of time. I just meant that lately the data swings have been shifting expectations more than usual, so it feels a bit choppy even if the overall trend isn’t a wild ride.

[franz555]

I get what you’re saying, and you’re right that a lot of rate moves are already priced in. Markets tend to react more to surprises than the hike itself. Volatility is normal, but the long-term trend can still push higher, especially with so much sidelined cash. Let’s see how it plays out next week.

No idea what your saying. Interest rate rate hikes, and cuts,are always built into the market based on key data released. The trend isnt some wild roller coaster ride.

[ProSportsEdge]

Stocks will probably go up. Every time they have raised rates the market has gone up. Look it up. Logic would tell you that people would start investing in bonds, CDs and more money going into savings which may be true but it won't matter...even after they have raised them 3-4 times as predicted. Next week when they raise rates it won't matter either as the previous poster said. It's already baked in. Don't you think mutual fund managers, investors and the like already know about rates.

I'm sure stocks will be volatile but that's what makes a market. It's completely healthy as are corrections.
The market will continue to grind higher and will be hitting new highs by spring or early summer. The charts are shaping up nicely and plus we are nowhere near the euphoria stage when everybody is on board and thinks we are going higher. Too much money on the sidelines. Most people have missed the rally from of March '09.

I get what you’re saying, and you’re right that a lot of rate moves are already priced in. Markets tend to react more to surprises than the hike itself. Volatility is normal, but the long-term trend can still push higher, especially with so much sidelined cash. Let’s see how it plays out next week.

[guitarjosh]

The transports, especially the commercial truck makers, are performing great. It looks like the insiders think the economy is about to take off.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Anyone alive here when I recommended ALB at 50?

Hi, Mad:
1) I do hold some ALB.
2) I didn't get your entry-pt of 50.
3) Saw ALB had a +6% day. My net on ALB is about Break-even.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ET got a bad grade from Growth Investor so be cautious.

Is that an issue? I normally don't put much credence on anyone's "rating."

[Madison]

Thx, Mad. Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) - yield looks good.

I think it's a real issue. How to keep up with currency debasement? The game has changed.

ET got a bad grade from Growth Investor so be cautious.

[Madison]

Anyone alive here when I recommended ALB at 50?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

As stated previously, check out ET and please show where this can go wrong as far as fixed income.

What Every Energy Transfer Investor Should Know Before Buying

Thx, Mad. Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) - yield looks good.

I think it's a real issue. How to keep up with currency debasement? The game has changed.

[Madison]

Have posted in here several times. Always appreciate the knowledge:
*Have picked up some good tips in here. Win or lose, always appreciate the insights.

Have a pretty clear view of the portfolio I'm trying to build. Sometimes tricky to get the percentages right. At the moment I'm trying to figure out the good "stabilizers." I view the Fixed Income market as being very interesting. Buffett, for example, holds a surprisingly high % of his assets in low-risk investments.

As stated previously, check out ET and please show where this can go wrong as far as fixed income.

What Every Energy Transfer Investor Should Know Before Buying

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Have posted in here several times. Always appreciate the knowledge:
*Have picked up some good tips in here. Win or lose, always appreciate the insights.

Have a pretty clear view of the portfolio I'm trying to build. Sometimes tricky to get the percentages right. At the moment I'm trying to figure out the good "stabilizers." I view the Fixed Income market as being very interesting. Buffett, for example, holds a surprisingly high % of his assets in low-risk investments.

[Madison]

Should of held onto my SYM stock is soaring today

Unfortunately I trimmed a while ago but still have some. Hard to think it's going higher from here.

[homie1975]

Beautiful deep green. Getting rich kicks ass

[homie1975]

Should of held onto my SYM stock is soaring today

Hindsight is always 20/20.

Remember that.

I NEVER regret a buy or sale.

We are not stock nostradamus here.

It's educated guesses with no crystal balls.