Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sup, Madison? Mentioned that I've been adding some SCCO/COPX.

Joe Burnett pointed out that the Copper/Gold ratio was quite low. May indicate an upturn in Copper, based on the business-cycle.

[Madison]

I bought when you posted this and now is up 35%. Should I keep longer? Do you think it shot up too quickly, or there is more room to go up this year.

Thanks for the tip.

You are very welcome. This is a long term speculative play. As someone famous once said "You'll never go broke by taking a profit."

Maybe take 20-35% back and rebuy on any draw downs. IMHO, this market is due for a haircut.

[pavyracer]

CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP) will be releasing its Q1 2025 earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, May 14

I bought when you posted this and now is up 35%. Should I keep longer? Do you think it shot up too quickly, or there is more room to go up this year.

Thanks for the tip.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Where do you typically find bargains on silver or other physical metals?

I've been thinking on-and-off about picking up physical metals, but the prospect of buying above spot and selling below has always scared me off.

Hi, Ian. Go to this link:

https://coinzip.com/index.php?state=MO

Local coin-shows are pretty good. Dealers like these shows, b/c they avoid the Ebay fees. If you look hard, can find bargains below the Ebay price.

You are right about the bid/ask spread. That's supposed to be pretty short:
*Top dealers do abide by this. I saw one dealer: Buying Ag @ 22x, Selling Ag @ 26x.
*Most Ag buyers view it as: Buy and Hold, Sell when you have to pay a bill.

[Ian]

Props to all the posters in here. I'm slowly re-balancing my portfolio:
1) Added some to SCCO and COPX. Have reasons to think that Copper value will rise.
2) Have watched Bitcoin videos on STRK. Adding some STRK.
3) Slowly di-vesting some of my DGRO (dividends) and Vanguard (index funds).

Also buying physical Silver when I find good bargains.

Where do you typically find bargains on silver or other physical metals?

I've been thinking on-and-off about picking up physical metals, but the prospect of buying above spot and selling below has always scared me off.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, boys. Adding some Copper to my stock portfolio. I buy SCCO.

Anyone can list other good Copper investments. Think Madison tipped me on SCCO.

Props to all the posters in here. I'm slowly re-balancing my portfolio:
1) Added some to SCCO and COPX. Have reasons to think that Copper value will rise.
2) Have watched Bitcoin videos on STRK. Adding some STRK.
3) Slowly di-vesting some of my DGRO (dividends) and Vanguard (index funds).

Also buying physical Silver when I find good bargains.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, boys. Adding some Copper to my stock portfolio. I buy SCCO.

Anyone can list other good Copper investments. Think Madison tipped me on SCCO.

[homie1975]

TACO got by the judges and markets ripped after hours lol

[Madison]

Long stocks, no long option positions. We can pull back a little since there's a gap on the chart on the S&P 500 & Nasdaq

Thank you!

[guitarjosh]

Where are you positioned now Josh?

P/E Ratio expansion ... Another 30 page chapter in the economics of the market.

Long stocks, no long option positions. We can pull back a little since there's a gap on the chart on the S&P 500 & Nasdaq

[Madison]

Where are you positioned now Josh?

P/E Ratio expansion ... Another 30 page chapter in the economics of the market.

[guitarjosh]

A little history from back in the day.

Even during periods when stocks go up most years, like from 1966 to 1982 when stocks rose in 10 of those 16 years (62.5% of the time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't make one new high from January 1973, at the top of a steep bear market, until November 1982.
It's clearly possible for stocks to finish a nearly two-decade period with a nominal capital gain of zero (and an inflation-adjusted capital gain of less than zero).

I know you're talking about the DJIA, but the P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 was around 19 in January 1973, and had fallen to under 10 by November 1982. Fair value is considered 15, and the P/E Ratio was briefly under 7 in August 1982. From that period until the peak in 2000, the S&P 500 went up by roughly 1,400%, but 500% of that gain was just due to P/E Ratio expansion.

[Madison]

A little history from back in the day.

Even during periods when stocks go up most years, like from 1966 to 1982 when stocks rose in 10 of those 16 years (62.5% of the time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't make one new high from January 1973, at the top of a steep bear market, until November 1982.
It's clearly possible for stocks to finish a nearly two-decade period with a nominal capital gain of zero (and an inflation-adjusted capital gain of less than zero).

[Madison]

What do you think about MLGO? I grabbed a 1,000 shares at $1.25 a few days back and now it shot up to $2.25. I'd like to lock an easy profit but not sure what is driving the price up. It went down very quickly and now it shot up too quickly.

Regarding MLGO ... Boy you can't find a chart much worse than that. Recent trading looks meme like to me. Personally, I'd trade very carefully and grab profits when presented.

[pavyracer]

Keep your eye on QBTS. I'm up over 250% to date so be cautious for volatility dips but Quantum going thru the roof until Jenson Thong makes another erroneous statement.

What do you think about MLGO? I grabbed a 1,000 shares at $1.25 a few days back and now it shot up to $2.25. I'd like to lock an easy profit but not sure what is driving the price up. It went down very quickly and now it shot up too quickly.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This is a 200 page story. The US national debt (Interest/see above) can not sustain itself with higher rates. The one thing in IMHO you can go to the bank on is INFLATION/Devaluation of your dollars. Hard assets (Homes/Gold/Bit??) are the savior.

Salud, Mad. Some would think that the USA is immune to hyper-inflation. Inflation is coming, it's just a matter of HOW MUCH.

Agree with your comments. Only one I'd question = Homes. Historically, real estate has appreciated to at least be > inflation. I'd question that going fwd. Have to pay for maintenance and repairs. Home value is very sensitive to the mortgage rate one can qualify for. Homes may not be the fail-safe they have been, but I understand your point that many people still seek out real estate as an investment.

[Madison]

Keep your eye on QBTS. I'm up over 250% to date so be cautious for volatility dips but Quantum going thru the roof until Jenson Thong makes another erroneous statement.

[Madison]

IONQ out of control. MY CB circa 2-3$ share. I can't count the # of people I gave this one to. My gut MSFT, AMZN, HON, IBM, ?? one of the bigger players buys and stock goes further to the moon??

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Keep an eye on the 10 year. It controls so much. I just bought my first Corp Bond (Circa 6%, 4YR). Once again. I'm old and preservation of capital is important to me. I think it should be for everyone (% of portfolio), leveraged to your age.

Personally, I'd like to see Milw Mike, appear again.

1) Milw Mike is knowledgeable. Always had good takes. You out there, Mike?
2) I understand your concept of preservation. I just think the concept of Real vs Nominal is showing up now more than ever.
3) Will keep an eye on your 10-year. Bonds are a big story in recent days.

[Madison]

Keep an eye on the 10 year. It controls so much. I just bought my first Corp Bond (Circa 6%, 4YR). Once again. I'm old and preservation of capital is important to me. I think it should be for everyone (% of portfolio), leveraged to your age.

Personally, I'd like to see Milw Mike, appear again.

[Madison]

This thread always has some cross-over with the Bitcoin thread. Someone has to answer for:
*How the US treasuries are not being bought up?

I think this is a huge story. Change is in the air, boys.

This is a 200 page story. The US national debt (Interest/see above) can not sustain itself with higher rates. The one thing in IMHO you can go to the bank on is INFLATION/Devaluation of your dollars. Hard assets (Homes/Gold/Bit??) are the savior.

[Madison]

OK, Mad. What's up with IONQ?

+38% today! And I am holding some, based on your tip. Thank You!

Chucky, understand that my portfolio is diverse. I have my futuristic LAC, IONQ, DWave, and many others (CRSP) that are in my futuristic portfolio. Some I'm holding forever (baseline) UNH. RSG, WM, etc. Although IONQ has been a 10XX for me to date.

[Madison]

thanks Madder. my grammar was pretty weak on that post. i am very tired but i am fine. i was helping an elderly loved one out and was taking shifts at the hospital pre and post surgery and sleeping in the room. i do not sleep well when not in my bed but it beats my uncle who was in the actual hospital bed and operating table.

back at it now and trying to figure out this market. i cannot, though. it is the most uncertain and unsure i have felt day to day on the market in over 7 years since this thread started.

All I can add is "No Regrets". I sacrificed many of my prime years caring for mom and then dad. Siblings went about their business and I did the best I could. Bottom line ... I lay my head on the pillow each night knowing I gave them my best. My siblings no idea/conscience??

All my best!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This thread always has some cross-over with the Bitcoin thread. Someone has to answer for:
*How the US treasuries are not being bought up?

I think this is a huge story. Change is in the air, boys.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Down 20% bounce back 20%. National Debt not receding. I gave my portfolio a haircut here. Much like Buffet buy when it crashes and sell when it's oversold.

OK, Mad. What's up with IONQ?

+38% today! And I am holding some, based on your tip. Thank You!

[homie1975]

i just got returned home and came up for some air.

Hopefully you are ok. At my age you start to understand the real value of "Health".

thanks Madder. my grammar was pretty weak on that post. i am very tired but i am fine. i was helping an elderly loved one out and was taking shifts at the hospital pre and post surgery and sleeping in the room. i do not sleep well when not in my bed but it beats my uncle who was in the actual hospital bed and operating table.

back at it now and trying to figure out this market. i cannot, though. it is the most uncertain and unsure i have felt day to day on the market in over 7 years since this thread started.

[Madison]

MADder and CHUCKer and company
i just got returned home and came up for some air.

hope you all are holding up well and we can see some more sunny skies here again.

i honestly do not know. for the first time in a very long time, i have no strong feel for which way we will go from here.

good health and good luck all

i just got returned home and came up for some air.

Hopefully you are ok. At my age you start to understand the real value of "Health".

[Madison]

This will either sober you up or cause you to head for the liquor cabinet.

Fast-forward two years, and Moody's is now the last of the "Big Three" to acknowledge the government's awful debt situation. Uncle Sam's fiscal deficit is north of $36 trillion today. That's $1.66 trillion higher than just a year ago and $11.15 trillion higher than five years ago.

With interest, the debt has increased by an average of $4.54 billion per day over the past year... or $3.15 million per minute... or $52,493 per second. Meanwhile, the U.S. budget deficit for the last fiscal year was $1.8 trillion. The U.S. government is drowned in liabilities.

[Madison]

Albemarle (ALB). Do yourself a favor and read this short article and consider starting a position. The pieces and parts are worth more than the $57 a share.

Albemarle (ALB) Stock Forecast: Major Run Possible This Year

[homie1975]

MADder and CHUCKer and company
i just got returned home and came up for some air.

hope you all are holding up well and we can see some more sunny skies here again.

i honestly do not know. for the first time in a very long time, i have no strong feel for which way we will go from here.

good health and good luck all

[Madison]

Down 20% bounce back 20%. National Debt not receding. I gave my portfolio a haircut here. Much like Buffet buy when it crashes and sell when it's oversold.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to the lawsuit I referenced. SMLR agreed to a $29M fine. Do your own due-diligence b4 investing:

https://www.ainvest.com/news/semler-scientific-agrees-29-75m-fine-doj-fraud-settlement-2504/

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I've commented on SMLR before. I won't claim to know EVERYTHING:

1) Eric Semler has employed a Bitcoin treasury standard. He's using the Saylor playbook to strengthen the asset side of his Balance Sheet.
2) I know that SMLR was facing a lawsuit. That may have held back their stock performance.
3) If lawsuit is in the rear-view mirror, that may tie to their current success.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, I know it's just one day. SMLR +16% today!

SMLR 2 , SEMLER SCIENTIFIC INC

Quantity

Price$37.03

Price Change+$5.24

Market Value$

Day Change+16.48%

Gain Loss-37.87%

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Someone could write a book on collateral damage with regard to stocks. A large part of my portfolio has been built likewise. Many people don't understand that it's inherently due to the prevalence of ETF's. Like them or hate them.

Mad, good point. Plz expound on that a little.

Here's what I've learned about ETFs. When a company starts an ETF fund, that means that THEY must buy each stock in an index so that their overall investment balances (closely) to the underlying stocks. With this in mind, it means that each underlying stock has some inherent demand, even if said stock is not performing particularly well.