Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

Barf Bag???

[homie1975]

secure your bag people

Robin
please expound.

[trobin31]

secure your bag people

[Madison]

MADder cut me some slack.

I just returned last night rom the Big Island of Hawaii so Aloha and Mahalo.

i was gone for 9 days.

in other news, we have given back all of the gains from last week and April 2 is getting here quick.

other countries are puffing their chests out against the bullying.

see Canada.

Apologies to you for being human and enjoying life. Why I'm a para-mutual (Poker/Racing). It's been me against the world and don't think the world will ever squeeze that out of me, to my dismay.

I've been negative (economy/Market) for some time and quite frankly it could be much worse. I keep hearing about all this $ 7B? in CD/MM on the sideline just waiting to buy equities. Fools in my mind as most is Madison like, (Conservation of capital). Show me these stats, grouped by age. Many elderly have spent a lifetime accumulating whatever and SS and interest is their God-Send.

[homie1975]

Homie, you're failing your thread. You poked at me because I innocently started another thread and got a little response. Get real and get going here or let the posting market be itself.

MADder cut me some slack.

I just returned last night rom the Big Island of Hawaii so Aloha and Mahalo.

i was gone for 9 days.

in other news, we have given back all of the gains from last week and April 2 is getting here quick.

other countries are puffing their chests out against the bullying.

see Canada.

[Madison]

I read the original WSJ article and it sounds like a very big potential problem. Basically the Biden Administration underwrote a lot of bad mortgages and if we don't keep putting money into the market to keep those loans afloat, we risk a crash. I don't think the conventional wisdom has people from Pennsylvania Ave to Wall Street to Main Street thinking housing will rise in perpetuity the way they did 20 years ago, so there won't be the widespread issuing of derivative insurance products like last time.

Appreciated!!

[guitarjosh]

Josh, check this ^^ out and comment pls.

I read the original WSJ article and it sounds like a very big potential problem. Basically the Biden Administration underwrote a lot of bad mortgages and if we don't keep putting money into the market to keep those loans afloat, we risk a crash. I don't think the conventional wisdom has people from Pennsylvania Ave to Wall Street to Main Street thinking housing will rise in perpetuity the way they did 20 years ago, so there won't be the widespread issuing of derivative insurance products like last time.

[Madison]

Hello, anyone out there.

[Madison]

Homie, you're failing your thread. You poked at me because I innocently started another thread and got a little response. Get real and get going here or let the posting market be itself.

[Madison]

Josh, check this ^^ out and comment pls.

[Madison]

If you value your $$ I recommend taking the time to read this article. Link below.

Short excerpt : In 2007, 35% of new FHA [Federal Housing Administration] borrowers had debt-to-income ratios above 43%.
By 2020, 54% did.
As housing prices and inflation surged, borrowers became more stretched.
The FHA kept insuring mortgages to borrowers who were increasingly leveraged. About 64% of FHA borrowers last year exceeded the 43% threshold.
The FHA loan portfolio is far riskier than it was before the 2008 housing crisis.
Under the guise of Covid relief, the Biden administration masked the growing troubles in the housing market by paying off borrowers and mortgage servicers to prevent foreclosures.
Of the 52,531 FHA loans last year that went seriously delinquent within their first year, only nine resulted in foreclosure.
The FHA instituted a program that pays mortgage servicers to make borrowers’ missed payments for them. Missed payments are added to the loan’s principal, but without interest…
One result is that many FHA borrowers owe more than their original mortgage and more than their homes are worth. They are essentially trapped in their homes even if they want to sell and move…
Another result is that home prices keep increasing because borrowers who don’t pay their mortgages—and never should have qualified for loans—can’t get foreclosed on or be forced to sell their homes.

The Danger that Could Derail Our Economy

[homie1975]

a little more relief today, but April 2 is bearing down on us..

[homie1975]

i am swing trading TQQQ, SPXL, UDOW. these are 3 to 4x leveraged ETF's on the indexes. i buy the dips and i sell the rips. i do this in my Roth IRA. all tax free whenever i decide to withdraw.

long term i am buying more NVDA and PLTR on dips.

[homie1975]

don't spam the forum Gents, with new stock threads, just post in here.

this week i am watching:

- Fed comments on Wednesday
- Trump tariffs on auto industry abroad probably Wednesday also

things are still very fluid.

right now the soup du jour is Buy the F'ing dips and Sell the F'ing Rips

too much uncertainty out there at these levels,

back to back incredible years so the markets are looking for any reason to sell.

[homie1975]

thank God for the relief rally today but we will need a lot more than this.

we need a catalyst or two to bring us back

[Itsamazing777]

Are we great again?

Yes

[Madison]

Please post more! Josh.

[pavyracer]

Are we great again?

[k13]

Investors love volatility.
That's how you make money.

But for the better of the real economy, money needs to be erased. Only way to lower prices.

Every asset crashing 75% would only take us back to normal.

[k13]

Stocks generally ultimately go higher, but the market is speaking and the market does not like the uncertainty and neither do businesses. It is possibly that it might take awhile to recover. Trump was handed a great economy on platter and he is doing his darndest to eff it up.

The economy was and is terrible.
The stock market is not the economy.

1% of people can pump a market to infinity.

[guitarjosh]

REPUBLICANS VS. DEMOCRATS BY THE NUMBERS THE LAST 50 YEARSYEARS HELD PRESIDENCY
Republicans 28
Democrats 22

STOCK MARKET RETURN
Republicans 109%
Democrats 992%

INCOME GROWTH
Republicans .6%
Democrats 2.2%

TOTAL JOBS CREATED
Republicans 24 million
Democrats 42 million

GDP
Republicans 2.7%
Democrats 4.1%

Nice, but you really didn’t address my points. Average weekly Fed Funds rate:

Reagan: ~9.5%
H.W. Bush: ~6.8%
Clinton: ~5.2%
W. Bush: ~3.1%
Obama: ~0.5%

Lower rates help strengthen the economy.

Here’s the market returns based on which party has the congress and which has the presidency.

[pavyracer]

The problem is that by late 2023 the market hadn't really gone anywhere when adjusted for inflation. It rose in 2021 because of all the stimulus. The economy might tank under Trump, but a lot of that will be because of what he inherited from Biden, like the aftermath of an inverted yield curve, FHA guarantees subprime loans which can turn into 2008 II, etc.



Reagan & Volker crushed inflation and gave us a strong stock market. In 45 years, we've had 3 democrats as president. The NASDAQ & S&P didn't really do anything in Clinton's first 2 years and Biden's first 3 years when you factor in inflation, & Obama had the most proactive Fed in history with ZIRP & QE. Things were fine under Trump until Covid. H. W. Bush had a mild recession brought on by 9.75% interest rates, W. had 2008 due to the widespread belief that housing prices wouldn't ever go down.

REPUBLICANS VS. DEMOCRATS BY THE NUMBERS THE LAST 50 YEARS HELD PRESIDENCY
Republicans 28
Democrats 22

STOCK MARKET RETURN
Republicans 109%
Democrats 992%

INCOME GROWTH
Republicans .6%
Democrats 2.2%

TOTAL JOBS CREATED
Republicans 24 million
Democrats 42 million

GDP
Republicans 2.7%
Democrats 4.1%

[guitarjosh]

Market had already risen before that in 2022. I'm afraid this is just the start, but I do hope I'm wrong.
Next 4 years will be very rocky. I'd be happy enough with a flat 4 years and survival.

The problem is that by late 2023 the market hadn't really gone anywhere when adjusted for inflation. It rose in 2021 because of all the stimulus. The economy might tank under Trump, but a lot of that will be because of what he inherited from Biden, like the aftermath of an inverted yield curve, FHA guarantees subprime loans which can turn into 2008 II, etc.

The stocks will surge again when a Democrat is in charge of the country. All Republican presidents the last 45 years have given the country high inflation and tanked the stock market. Do some research. Sell everything now and wait 4 more years to invest again. Put in money market account and earn 4% before you lose it all with Trump.

Reagan & Volker crushed inflation and gave us a strong stock market. In 45 years, we've had 3 democrats as president. The NASDAQ & S&P didn't really do anything in Clinton's first 2 years and Biden's first 3 years when you factor in inflation, & Obama had the most proactive Fed in history with ZIRP & QE. Things were fine under Trump until Covid. H. W. Bush had a mild recession brought on by 9.75% interest rates, W. had 2008 due to the widespread belief that housing prices wouldn't ever go down.

[Madison]

Good, Bad, indifferent, it's good to see a little commentary in here.

[pavyracer]

A Democrat isn't going to be in office for a long long time...

Well I hope the 4% on your savings will last a while before you run out of funds with 10% inflation for ever. Let us know how poor you are in a long time.

[Itsamazing777]

The stocks will surge again when a Democrat is in charge of the country. All Republican presidents the last 45 years have given the country high inflation and tanked the stock market. Do some research. Sell everything now and wait 4 more years to invest again. Put in money market account and earn 4% before you lose it all with Trump.

A Democrat isn't going to be in office for a long long time...

[pavyracer]

You people don't understand that a small fluctuation at first is normal. Long term is the goal. Rates will go down stocks will surge. Only a matter of time

The stocks will surge again when a Democrat is in charge of the country. All Republican presidents the last 45 years have given the country high inflation and tanked the stock market. Do some research. Sell everything now and wait 4 more years to invest again. Put in money market account and earn 4% before you lose it all with Trump.

[d2bets]

The S&P 500 is down 6% from an all time high. Did you call the over 20% drop in 2022 the Biden Crash?

Market had already risen before that in 2022. I'm afraid this is just the start, but I do hope I'm wrong.
Next 4 years will be very rocky. I'd be happy enough with a flat 4 years and survival.

[trobin31]

S&P Performance after two straight +20% years usually poor the 3rd year. Especially in the 2nd half.
Unless this AI boom is really a repeat of dotcom where 1995/96 was followed by 30% in ‘97, hard to make a case for an up year.
currently more than 50% chance for rate cut in June & odds for more than 3 cuts rose recently

[guitarjosh]

The Trump Crash continues. When you thrash around and break things without knowing what you're doing, things get broken. Go figure.

The S&P 500 is down 6% from an all time high. Did you call the over 20% drop in 2022 the Biden Crash?

[d2bets]

You people don't understand that a small fluctuation at first is normal. Long term is the goal. Rates will go down stocks will surge. Only a matter of time

Stocks generally ultimately go higher, but the market is speaking and the market does not like the uncertainty and neither do businesses. It is possibly that it might take awhile to recover. Trump was handed a great economy on platter and he is doing his darndest to eff it up.

[Itsamazing777]

You people don't understand that a small fluctuation at first is normal. Long term is the goal. Rates will go down stocks will surge. Only a matter of time

[d2bets]

a bull in a china shop and we are "the china" lol

The market and businesses in the USA can absorb and thrive under most conditions and policies and direction. But the one thing the market and businesses can't absorb is complete and utter uncertainty and instability and day-to-day shifts in policy. Businesses can't plan under those conditions, and if you can't plan well you can't do business.

[homie1975]

The Trump Crash continues. When you thrash around and break things without knowing what you're doing, things get broken. Go figure.

a bull in a china shop and we are "the china" lol

[d2bets]

The Trump Crash continues. When you thrash around and break things without knowing what you're doing, things get broken. Go figure.