The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

...The underdog and the Under is likely not the winning two pick...

Well, the above was not correct.

In regards to both the spread and Total, this has the makings of a dirty one, especially if it's Hamilton's night to win a game.

The market wants its settlement and my constantly changing screen is showing it all too well....

After all those shifts that were away from the result, on all the other two game nights, bettors get a little redemption.

There was some settlement and it's officially the second half of the season.

[KVB]

Congrats on the Ticats win!

[Hngkng]

Is there a place to bet Ottawa to win the east in the regular season only? I feel like that would be a great bet to do right now.

[KVB]

Is there a place to bet Ottawa to win the east in the regular season only? I feel like that would be a great bet to do right now.

I haven't seen this yet, just Grey Cup odds.

I will be checking the props when I log in places, maybe it will be offered.

Pinny slow to hang moneylines for this week.

[KVB]

I didn't see the big fight, watching a replay. Mac G looks huge early on, but you can tell Floyd's baiting a bit. Floyd's an expert.

MacG with the hammer fists to the back of the head...lol...that could have cost him a payday...lol. He even uses his body to block the ref's view then hammers Floyd real quick.

Got to hand to Mac G, he's using what he has with reach, height, size. Underdog bettors probably getting all excited. Their talking about how Floyd hasn't seen a taller boxer in 5 fights, giving hope. Meanwhile Floyd hasn’t thrown any punches yet, so few at this point. Announcers are saying Floyd has no footwork, more hope. Do you ever see that underdog, or sometimes a favorite, take an early lead, only to be cursed that they got the early points. Maybe the dog scores first or the favorite runs the score up to the cover the spread, before never covering again.

It's age old and became a part of entertainment, a part of theatre and stage from the ancients on. It's psychology. It's not that people are so different, which they are, it was always how they were all alike that sent me to study human behavior. You know, they learned a lot in the 1940’s and 1950’s, mostly with the corporate goal of manipulating a consumer. They are very good at it; I’ve studied it. There is wisdom in the ancient works as well; true wisdom of human behavior. Over thousands of years, we’re the same people, in the way our brains work; we just live in different times.

Evil rises up; good overtakes evil but doesn't quite vanquish him. Evil can live to rise another day.

And so it goes. But applying to what we see in sports can be tricky. Who’s good, and why? Does it change? Is it true in every issue there’s a good and evil? Does it matter with no edge? After all, it’s a market we analyze here. I’ll say one thing, it matters what groups of bettors are where, and it’s being played to an audience. I’ve said that before.

There are so many dynamics involved and so many questions to ask, but what of those early scoring favorites? Toronto, who was at most 5 points favorite, with a moving line, took a 6 point lead with a single on top. That line traded at 4 for much of the day. A little half point move here or there. Once it became 7-3, that 4 point lead, it seems Toronto was doomed. Scoring opened up in the wrong direction for them.

Sure I’m saying something after the fact, and you know how I feel about using that type of example, but this was Hamilton’s first win, at home, on a Holiday. The first game was the favorite and Over, then the underdog and Under. How settling, a nature of the market I talked about before the fact, yet I was still surprised with the Total.

Curiously and curiously related, have you seen the sharp forecasts performance against the money line this season, and how about the spread? It’s interesting when you see how teams behave with the sharp forecast on their shoulders. We could get a playoff runner or championship future with that kind of information.

There was some weight to that Hamilton win, other than it being the first. Volume of betting on a game is important to know when analyzing the market, but I feel it’s better to know where money is being driven. You can get a more accurate sense of volume based on bookmaking technique’s being used than you can from those BS services, which can still help. It’s not the information, we all have it, it’s how you use it that counts.

Can you pick up what I’m putting down? I’m throwing in factors here, it’s a give and take market with a long term outlook and room or adjustment and this message may self-destruct.

But I keep saying, over and over again: it’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.

Once you can appreciate what is being brought, you can really appreciate how it’s brought.

I hate to lead early; it’s the psychology with ancient roots that leads to that fact. The trick is being able to quantify the relevant factors, the relevant climate. It’s the true blend of math and psychology that beats the markets, applying weight to and quantifying the near impossible is necessary. I’ve talked about the environment and climate. That’s what I mean when I say track your bets and why you made them. The “why?” becomes a very important part of the equation.

Especially when following this modern day entertainment.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has British Colombia winning with 27 or 28 points to Montreal’s 13 or 14 points.

The stacking forecast has BC scoring 31 points to Montreal’s 24 points. Some unsophisticated use of means and medians, relative to team ratings, have BC winning anywhere from 3 to 7 points and the public gauge shows BC with a 10 point win, 27 to 17.

There’s a lot agreement on a moneyline winner here, and it’s worth noting.

While the stacking forecast shows a 55 point game, all the other methods show a lower scoring game, with the sharp forecast being the lowest. I think it is very easy to counter all the other numbers, and take the Over with the stacking forecast. I also think this is a mistake. I have indications that many groups will seek the Over tonight, and those groups can exhibit an edge, but can also be led. The Total opened at 49.5 and has ticked upward, away from the forecast.

I think this Total line is very sharp for the purposes of the book and I think the line could even push back to 49.5 before game time.

Last week saw a big season story settle with a market doing some of the same. In the first game we saw the favorite and Over, the second the underdog and Under. In the first game, the sharp forecast was successful against the spread and moneyline, but failed against the Total. In game two it saw failure against the spread and moneyline, and success against the Total.

After 7 instances of two games, it took the Hamilton victory to see a real settlement. But many things settled. This week we get the privilege of having three games occur, each three hours apart. Money will flow and we should be patient trading this first game.

From a broader market sense, look for the sharp forecast to succeed against the moneyline, and maybe the spread, in relation to the first NFL game…another 8 point spread. Unfortunately, this situation is not in a predictive mode, not this time. Incidentally, the stacking forecast for that NFL game had New England winning 28-21, with a raw score of an 8 point victory. There is no sharp forecast that I care to mention yet for the NFL, we need four games, even though some formulas can use last year’s efforts.

Again, I’m not pressing the sharp forecast with a bold play on the Totals right now, but I would strongly warn against taking an Over tonight. It might look in the bag, and then just not be.

Because it’s not what they bring, it’s how they bring it.

[Booya711]

Montreal will cover but BC will get ML

[KVB]

Montreal will cover but BC will get ML

...From a broader market sense, look for the sharp forecast to succeed against the moneyline, and maybe the spread..

That was my feel Booya. The sharp forecast has BC to cover. I think the moneyline is good, but the spread is up in the air.

[Booya711]

That was my feel Booya. The sharp forecast has BC to cover. I think the moneyline is good, but the spread is up in the air.

Well we do have a clue KVB

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Played some Montreal +9.5.

Note: I've looked like an a-hole on some of my recent selections.

[Hngkng]

I'm doing a small bet on BC -8.5

[KVB]

BC puts it at 8-0, instead of 7-0.

There is potential for a live trade here, on the Under.

[KVB]

...There is potential for a live trade here, on the Under...

It was 53.5 when I posted and now sitting 51.5, for a while, after the missed field goal.

I think it goes Under these numbers and the value may be dropping fast.

[Hngkng]

One factor to consider is the kickoff happened at 10pm Montreal time, so game ends at 1am their time.

[KVB]

The Live Total line now 45.5.

I think the the writing is on the wall. This game is going Under.

It will be interesting to see if we get a better number the 49.5.

[KVB]

The line is ticking upwards.

If BC can get in, I'll get an Under.

[KVB]

The line is ticking upwards.

If BC can get in, I'll get an Under.

End zone pick, no points.

[Hngkng]

End zone pick, no points.

Wait theres a challenge

[KVB]

Wait theres a challenge

Let's see if BC can score.

[Hngkng]

Wow lost yardage on their 3 goal line tries. Jennings read the option wrong on the 2nd down which would have been an easy TD.

[KVB]

No points.

It's now what they bring, it's how they bring it.

Let's see what 2 points do to the line.

[Hngkng]

No points.

It's now what they bring, it's how they bring it.

Safety

[KVB]

Safety still not enough for the line.

I think 45.5 is too low, it may still go Under, but the line is no good here. It's going to take a major change to get it back to 49.5.

Unless we see a score, the 2nd half line will also be a gamble.

53.5 and 51.5 live were good plays.

[KVB]

Well, there you go.

I picked up UNDER 24.5 (-110) 2nd Half for Montreal Allouettes vs. British Columbia Lions

Good Luck.

[Coolcanuck79]

grabbed under 24.5 2H.

[KVB]

I think it's the right play Canuck, and it might be the winning play, but that was a little strange way to end the half.

I think it's hope being offered for the Over bettors.

[Coolcanuck79]

I think it's the right play Canuck, and it might be the winning play, but that was a little strange way to end the half.

I think it's hope being offered for the Over bettors.

I agree but things look even fishier here in the 3rd.

[KVB]

Well there's that 45.

The live line is very high now.

I picked up UNDER 62.5 (-119) LIVE For Montreal vs. BC.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I picked up UNDER 59.5 (-119) LIVE for Montreal vs. British Columbia.

Good luck.

[KVB]

BC running the clock all the way down, getting a penalty, and stalling the drive, to allow a deep punt to Montreal.

That's the kind of 4th quarter behavior we want to see.

[KVB]

Well it ended at 59, threatening the 10 point tease and going OVER the second half.

I should have brought up the teaser equation, I don't mention that enough.

Those live lines were just too high in my book, they had to be hit.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Amazing. The BC qb's play better, when coming off the bench.

Jennings had been playing like a goof, until tonite. Poor Lulay gets injured on 1st play of game.

[KVB]

The question is, who's next on the roster? Lulay looks serious.

BC can do it with these QB's, but what if they need a back up?

They have rookie Alex Ross...

https://www.bclions.com/players/alex-ross/162201/

[Hngkng]

Lulay is believed to be a torn anterior cruciate ligament, but the damage could be even more severe.

If this is true, I am sure BC will try to look for a backup. Maybe they will look at Hamilton.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 40 or more points to Winnipeg’s 34 or 36 points.

The stacking forecast says Winnipeg wins with 30 points to Saskatchewan’s 28 points. The public gauge has Winnipeg winning 33-31.

Take out the sharp forecast and you see a line and Total in alignment with the stacking forecast and public gauge, just about exactly, with an offered line of Winnipeg -2 and the Total falling between the two predictions.

The sharp forecast calls for the upset and Over and with the line opening at Winnipeg -1, it’s always called for the upset. This forecast is in line with less sophisticated numbers, some I often mention, that call for the same result.

This is a concern for the sharp forecast in this specific game. It’s among variance and happens every season. It’s succeeded in turning me away from a bold play pressing the forecast, as the forecast should fail.

This is a rematch from last week where Saskatchewan won 38-24 in Saskatchewan. The sharp forecast this week is virtually same as last week. Also, it’s the start of three games today. I think we have more information to gain by watching this game and if the sharp forecast were to be successful against the moneyline, then I have an idea about the flow of money today.

But that won’t be easy, Winnipeg will be looking to get that game back from last week. I just don’t trust the spot. With the sharp forecast being the same and the success of it last week on all three bets, we could see some true give and take. Ordinarily I would be calling for deception in this first game, given the schedule, and it’s always possible. But metrics indicate this game will show itself and just remain that way.

We got lucky last night with the Live Under 59.5 and I have metrics indicating the same result with tonight’s offered line and that the sharp forecast will fail. I am countering the sharp forecast’s Over prediction and I have picked up UNDER 59.5 (-105) for Saskatchewan vs. Winnipeg.

Sometimes during a rematch, adjustments lead to the opposite Total result. Not only does it fit into the natural give and take of the markets, but the metrics indicate this individual issue as well.

I recognize the extra risk as this is the first game today. The numbers suggest the risk is worth taking as the early bird may be the one to get the worm when it comes to today’s Totals. I suspect the decision on Totals will get tougher, with more risk, with each game today. When it comes to the Totals, perhaps the best things won’t be there for those who wait.

Good Luck.