The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

...the long term sharp forecasts…

Ottawa win with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 8 points...

The stacking forecast, which is an adjusted score, shows the following:

Ottawa wins with 30 points to Montreal’s 22 points. There is a just slight less then equal probability that Montreal gets 20 points as well as 22. This is close, but for the thread we’ll stick with Montreal predicted to score 22 points...

The Non predictive public gauge as of now, but this could change slightly...

Ottawa 25, Montreal 22...

The line opened early with Ottawa -3 and has, once again, moved away from the forecast. In all three games this week the line has moved away from the forecast and in all three games, the forecast succeeded against the spread. I predicted suspicious movements this week, we got them, and I had predicted a correction in the sharp forecast performance. That did not happen.

It would be easy to just counter the forecast here but there is not enough evidence to do so. I can’t just expect what we’ve seen several times this season, with the final game of the week bringing the sharp forecast failure, to happen again and counter the sharp forecast.

When I counter the sharp forecast with a bold trade it’s because I see a short term metric indicating to do so. There are many ways to handicap and if you put every way of handicapping together, you would end up likely near 50-50. I’ve written about this and it’s the nature of the beast.

My point is that I don’t have significance to counter the forecast with a Montreal play. I have some reasons for Montreal, but they just don’t add up enough. Sure, maybe it’s give and take and maybe now with no conclusion for Montreal, that it’s finally Montreal.

Even though I want to get back some of that Calgary loss, it’s simply not how we bet. There has to be a short term or long term perceived edge to make a bet. I’ve said it before, and I can say it again, the sharp forecast speaks for itself from a long term perspective.

Some short term metrics have died out this week. Sure, there’s evidence the market needs settlement based on what we’ve seen this week and Montreal appears to be that settlement. The sharp forecast is predicting a blowout, in a range where it is known to fail, another rather unsophisticated case for Montreal, but one that can be considered, even if to consider some bettors passing on an Ottawa bet.

To be fair, the movement away from the forecast is not all that suspicious. Ottawa’s quarterback is out. There is pressure on Montreal to win as well. Along with settlement pressure, this amounts to quite a bit of pressure that teams can have trouble handling. Perhaps we will see even further line movement towards Montreal, who is now a 1.5 point underdog. Maybe I’m looking over my shoulder, but I think it’s a test of patience.

In the end, especially with the QB issue in Ottawa, it seems too perfect of a situation for Montreal to get their win and cover a spread. I think Montreal is being sold. I’m not biting.

The long term forecast gives us no play against the Total at this point and for now I’m going to pass on what appears to be a clean cut give and take market call on Montreal.

[Hngkng]

I would have to assume Montreal gets an emotional boost for a few games due to the coaching change.

[KVB]

...Perhaps we will see even further line movement towards Montreal, who is now a 1.5 point underdog. Maybe I’m looking over my shoulder, but I think it’s a test of patience...

The line has dropped to Ottawa -1. The pressure on Montreal is real and it sure looks like a perfect storm for the Montreal cover and win.

Is the CFL that easy or is this just another trap? There are more and more and more reasons to take Montreal here and metrics are starting to move in their direction.

I'm still passing for now on Montreal bet.

[KVB]

I would have to assume Montreal gets an emotional boost for a few games due to the coaching change.

All signs pointing to Montreal, does anyone know anyone that is taking Ottawa?

[KVB]

Montreal is now showing as favored, it's about time.

This game could end up being a tough issue to settle on the field.

[KVB]

The Ottawa QB is Drew Tate.

He plated for Iowa and in 2005 threw a 50+ yard TD pass at the end of the game to win the Bowl game against Wisconsin.

He's 32 now and I think this is his first CFL start, at least in Ottawa.

[Hngkng]

The Ottawa QB is Drew Tate.

He plated for Iowa and in 2005 threw a 50+ yard TD pass at the end of the game to win the Bowl game against Wisconsin.

He's 32 now and I think this is his first CFL start, at least in Ottawa.

First start in Ottawa. Was a starter for Calgary in 2012 and 2013 before injuries forced him out. Glenn was the backup, then Bo Levi Mitchell took over in 2014.

[Hngkng]

Montreal is now showing as favored, it's about time.

This game could end up being a tough issue to settle on the field.

I did a small bet on Montreal because of the coaching change.

[KVB]

First start in Ottawa. Was a starter for Calgary in 2012 and 2013 before injuries forced him out, and Bo Levi Mitchell took over.

I did a small bet on Montreal because of the coaching change.

Good stuff HngKng.

I actually talked myself into a betpoints bet on Montreal last night. I've been getting more aggressive in the SBR Book with the new Bitcoin offerings for points...lol.

Good Luck

[KVB]

Montreal is now showing as favored, it's about time.

This game could end up being a tough issue to settle on the field...

Montreal takes a 1-0 lead...

Edit...The point was taken away and Ottawa went up first 8-0.

[Hngkng]

Montreal is helpless

[KVB]

...Along with settlement pressure, this amounts to quite a bit of pressure that teams can have trouble handling. Perhaps we will see even further line movement towards Montreal, who is now a 1.5 point underdog. Maybe I’m looking over my shoulder, but I think it’s a test of patience...

Montreal under tremendous pressure, I'm really not surprised at what we are seeing.

Tate for Ottawa hit hard, now replaced.

Montreal gets a pick in the endzone on the replacement's first pass.

But the Montreal player runs out of the endzone then back in, giving up a safety.

It's going to be a long day for Montreal, but the good news is that they'll be in a position to win and cover in the near future; unless they manage to come back today.

[Hngkng]

Montreal under tremendous pressure, I'm really not surprised at what we are seeing.

Tate for Ottawa hit hard, now replaced.

Montreal gets a pick in the endzone on the replacement's first pass.

But the Montreal player runs out of the endzone then back in, giving up a safety.

It's going to be a long day for Montreal, but the good news is that they'll be in a position to win and cover in the near future; unless they manage to come back today.

That's former Arizona cardinal Ryan Lindley for Ottawa.

[KVB]

As expected, the pressure was too much for Montreal to handle.

[KVB]

Is this the sharp Forecast's fair lines?

Saskatchewan -17

Toronto -4; -5

Calgary -11

Ottawa -32

This week those forecasts pointed to a perfect record against the spread and moneyline and a 2-2 record against the Totals. This is using as little as a half point discrepancy to the offered line.

So, in terms of spreads, how much closer to reality was my line in comparison to the books, using the “more efficient” closing line?

Let’s look at the sharp forecast average line error and compare it to the book…

Sas -17, closing line: Sas -3, Sas won the game by 8 points.
Book error: 5 points, Forecast error: 9 points.

Toronto -4; -5, closing line Toronto +3.5, Toronto won by 8 points.
Book error: 11.5 points, Forecast error: 3, 4 points.

Calgary -11: Closing line Calgary -9, Calgary won by 14 points.
Book error: 5 points, Forecast error: 3 points.

Ottawa -32: Closing line Ottawa +1, Ottawa won by 18 points.
Book error: 19 points, Forecast error: 14 points.

An average of just these 4 games shows the book with an average error of 10.125.

Depending on the sharp forecast figure used for the Toronto game, 3 or 4, the average error is either 7.25 or 7.5 respectively. If you use 3.5 for that game, then the error is 7.375. All well below the 10.125 error of the book.

If you can beat the book’s average line error by this much consistently, you will utterly destroy a sport.

Remember, I am comparing the forecast to any discrepancy with the spread. For example, in the Calgary game where they were favored by 9 and the sharp forecast had them winning by 11, this is considered a play on the Calgary spread. In the NFL, the sharp forecast would require a larger discrepancy from the market before triggering a play.

When you have prediction, it’s a good idea to test it against the average line error of the books. This was just the analysis of one week, a week where the forecast went 4-0 ATS. Ideally, a bettor would test the forecast against a large sample of past lines and scores to really get the picture of where they stand against the market.

This helps you know if indeed you are making a line that is closer to reality than the book can offer.

[KVB]

I don't see any lines hanging for the CFL yet this week, maybe I'll post the numbers early again. I can do the public gauge and sharp forecast, but I need more time for the stacking forecast.

[Hngkng]

I don't see any lines hanging for the CFL yet this week, maybe I'll post the numbers early again. I can do the public gauge and sharp forecast, but I need more time for the stacking forecast.

With all the injuries at QB, they gotta be waiting till more news comes out first.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast:

Ottawa wins with 33 or 34 points to Winnipeg’s 24 or 25 points.

There is a tie between British Columbia and Hamilton with each team getting 19 or 20 points and Hamilton, yes Hamilton, getting a slight moneyline edge in the raw score. One might say Hamilton wins 20 to 19, but that would be a mistake. The adjusted scores are what they are and each team scores 19 or 20 points with equal probability.

Toronto wins with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 13 points.

Calgary wins with 27 or 28 points to Saskatchewan’s 23 points.

The non-predictive public gauge, which is subject to change, shows:

Winnipeg 33, Ottawa 30

British Columbia 34, Hamilton 18

Toronto 24, Montreal 17

Calgary 28, Saskatchewan 23…This is the same as the sharp forecast, even though this is not an adjusted score, it is a raw score.

Last week I was confident that more openers would be in line with the public gauge than not. This week I can’t say the same thing. Early on, I can see a lot of factors in play and it’s more difficult to peg the openers. Believe it or not, I think I have a better chance of telling you which team the line will move towards in some games, even without seeing the line.

If I get time between posting the stacking percentages forecast and the when they hang lines, I will perhaps try to figure the openers. Perhaps the openers will be closer to the stacking percentages forecast and the originators are waiting for the same information that I am.

This is very possible but I suspect a healthy mix of each prediction being represented among the openers.

[KVB]

With all the injuries at QB, they gotta be waiting till more news comes out first.

Agreed.

Drew Tate is doubtful and Glenn is questionable.

These can for sure cause hesitancy until there's an upgrade to probable or an official out downgrade.

But we know Lulay is out and that's not changing and Montreal vs. Toronto doesn't have an issue.

It's a market as a whole and the originators hate to put out a line on half the market.

[KVB]

The stacking percentages forecast, which is an adjusted score and is subject to change has the following:

Winnipeg wins with 30 points to Ottawa’a 24 points.

British Columbia wins with 30 points to Ottawa’s 23 points.

Toronto wins with 27 or 28 points to Montreal’s 19 or 20 points.

It looks like they decided to hang three games on the board and the final game, which is a day later on Sunday is still off.

We do need more information before computing the final game, and the books obviously need it too.

Glenn being questionable is an issue here but Drew Tate being doubtful not so much an issue.

Like I said, it’s that QB situation time of year and it’s coming on heavy.

[Hngkng]

Glenn will start for Saskatchewan.

Tate will dress, but no word on playing for Ottawa this week.

[Hngkng]

Tonight Ryan Lindley is starting for Ottawa. Most of you remember him from the Arizona cardinals.

I am liking winnipeg -7.0
hamilton +12.0

[KVB]

I see that HngKng, Glenn was updated to probable, which almost always means he'll start.

The Greek is the only house to hang a line on Calgary vs. Saskatchewan so far and they have moved from -6 to -6.5.

[KVB]

The stacking percentages forecast, which is an adjusted score and is subject to change has the following:

Winnipeg wins with 30 points to Ottawa’a 24 points.

British Columbia wins with 30 points to Ottawa’s 23 points.

Toronto wins with 27 or 28 points to Montreal’s 19 or 20 points...

All of these forecasts have changed. The updated stacking percentages forecast for all games are:

Winnipeg scores 31 or 33 points to Ottawa’s 23 points.

British Columbia wins with 30 points to Hamilton’s 20 or 22 points.

Toronto wins with 30 points to Montreal’s 16 or 17 points.

Calgary wins with 30 points to Saskatchewan’s 23 points.

[Hngkng]

I see that HngKng, Glenn was updated to probable, which almost always means he'll start.

The Greek is the only house to hang a line on Calgary vs. Saskatchewan so far and they have moved from -6 to -6.5.

Glenn has been confirmed starter on all the local radios.

The line movement is mostly because Messam (starting RB for Calgary) is a game time decision

[KVB]

Messam had a concussion and I have him as doubtful. I'm not sure the protocol, but if was concussed, he may not be able to play.

By Sunday it will have been 8 full days so it's hard to tell. If you see game time decision then it must whether or not he shows symptoms, like a headache, as opposed to a standard time frame.

It's tough to hang a line and no need so soon I suppose. The line out there will be a bit of an indicator for other houses to go by.

[KVB]

...Perhaps the openers will be closer to the stacking percentages forecast and the originators are waiting for the same information that I am.

This is very possible but I suspect a healthy mix of each prediction being represented among the openers...

Let’s see where the openers fall in relation to the forecasts. Note, for the first three games the early stacking percentages forecast, the one made with information had at the time, or right before, the openers came out is used.

Open: Winnipeg -6.5, 56. The early stacking percentages forecast had Winnipeg 30-23, that’s the closest to the spread. The updated stacking forecast predicts 54 or 56 points and an 8 to 10 point Winnipeg win. The line has moved to Winnipeg -7.5 and a 55.5 Total.

Open: BC -11.5, 51.5. The updated stacking forecast shows an 8 or 10 point game but the early stacking forecast showed a 7 point game and the public gauge shows a 16 point game and the line has moved to -12.5. Both the stacking forecast and public gauge are at the Total with the stacking percentage forecast showing a 50 or 52 point game and the gauge showing 52.

Open: Toronto -5.5, 47. The public gauge has a 7 point game and the early stacking forecast showed a 7, 8, or 9 point game. The line has moved to -7. The sharp forecast shows a 47 or 49 point game and the early stacking forecast shows a 46, 47 or 48 point game, both in line with the opener.

Open: Calgary -6, 54.5. This is the only line out there, from the Greek. The sharp forecast shows a 4 or 5 point game, the public gauge shows a 5 point game, and the stacking forecast shows a 7 point game. The line opened right between them. All forecasts came Under the offered Total but the stacking forecast was closest with 53 points.

You can see from my earlier quote that both conditions are a bit true. The stacking forecast is prevalent near the openers, but there is a mix with the sharp forecast and gauge also being represented.

Also, you can see that the public gauge isn’t always the openers.

Finally, the sharp forecast, which was perfect against the spread and moneyline last week, is off a bit from everyone else this week. Perhaps it’s time for that correction in the sharp forecast performance this week. I’ll look at that closer as I go game by game.

[KVB]

Glenn has been confirmed starter on all the local radios.

The line movement is mostly because Messam (starting RB for Calgary) is a game time decision

Great info here Hnkkng, I appreciate it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One tip = Ott +7.5. How bad can Lindley be? We'll see.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast:

Ottawa wins with 33 or 34 points to Winnipeg’s 24 or 25 points…

...The updated stacking percentages forecast for all games are:

Winnipeg scores 31 or 33 points to Ottawa’s 23 points...

…The non-predictive public gauge, which is subject to change, shows:

Winnipeg 33, Ottawa 30...

We have the sharp forecast in disagreement with the other two predictions, calling for an upset against the moneyline. The line is moving away from the forecast and looks to settle on the low end of the stacking forecast.

I have a couple of problems with this line. First, there is heavy and strong market indication for an underdog to cover here and combining that with the sharp forecast almost tells the market analysts participants that it is drawing money into the underdog, making it similar to Montreal letting down the bettors last week. After seeing what Ottawa did last week, it makes it easy to jump to Winnipeg.

But the publicly known information relates to the quarterback situation and we’ve seen the line move on public pressure off of -7. Ottawa is a good team and often I say the players may not make much difference, but the QB situation may be causing some groups to back away from the Underdog. The movement to -7.5 will help to add to the underdog bets and that hook becomes attractive for other reasons but it’s hard to ignore the combining of the public and the wary analyst onto Winnipeg.

This brings us to the next problem with the line, the movement. I think the Ottawa moneyline is in serious jeopardy, even though I agree with the market metrics indicating the underdog, and thus a potential upset. This line movement causes an issue with this type of play because of the potential to middle or push on the early line. Those taking -7 may push while those getting stuck with 8 or more get the worst of the result.

Based on my metrics regarding the specifics of this game, I cannot counter the forecast spread here with a bold play even though I think the forecast has good chance of failing. So while I agree with the underdog indication mentioned above, I think the forecast will fail. This contradiction is the recipe for a pass and could result in a Winnipeg win and Ottawa cover of the closing line. This results conclusion is the same as the paragraph above, but has been reached with different evidence.

If this were the second game of the night, we could get an idea of moneyflow and the book would have to tip its hand a bit, but it’s the first game of the night and week, so again I look to pass on a trade here.

Also, for the fifth game in a row, the line has moved away from the sharp forecast. We still have signs that the success of the sharp forecast will correct and this seems like an excellent game to start that correction, especially following last week’s perfect run.

The next game tonight is also showing slight spread movement away from the forecast and it’s possible we see the results go in accordance with the movement, with both favorites covering.

Unfortunately, to counter the Underdog metric against the spread in the first game is too risky, especially with the line movement, and I am forced to pass.

The Total is too close to the offered lines to offer much in the way of an edge and there is money stacked on both sides; it’s best to let that money splash down before trying to dip into one of the sides for a bet.

[KVB]

Looking ahead, by the design of the week’s rotation it may be best not to focus on the two games tonight when looking for settlement, but to look ahead, even to Sunday, where Calgary could finally run into trouble in Saskatchewan. The books have exhausted many techniques to keep Calgary on a win streak and time may be running out for them.

Of course, that’s looking ahead. Let’s see what tonight brings first.

[KVB]

From the looks of this market I would say the books are trying to attract a certain type of money to the underdog and, again, the late money on the underdog could hit.

But I'm thinking Ottawa could be in trouble here. The good news is that by peeling off certain groups to one side, it makes it easier to follow the money. The bad news is that if we see a 7 or 8 point Winnipeg win, there's no clear settlement and the money trail remains a bit more foggy.

Otherwise, it looks like Winnipeg is going to win and cover this spread with authority.

[Hngkng]

I like Winnipeg at home, off a bye week vs Lindley at QB. This is Ottawa's 3rd QB in 3 weeks, the drop off is too much in my mind.

Winnipeg -7.5

[KVB]

Agreed Hngkng, I think Ottawa is in trouble this week.

Good Luck.

[Hngkng]

Winnipeg up by 20 right now, Lindley looks awful tonight, but tough conditions, pouring rain.

I like Hamilton +12.5 in the later game, however one point of concern is the time zone.
Kickoff is at 8 BC local time, and 11 Hamilton local time. I believe if this is an afternoon game, Hamilton could easily win with +12.5; but this being so late, we could get a late BC cover.

Either way, I am doing Hamilton +12.5; just not huge.