The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

...we could even see overtime or at least a much more ambiguous result close to that second kickoff. This might cause some hesitation in taking an Under, as it increases the chances of a late Over result...

...The game currently shows Toronto covering and Under at the half. On the first game of the Conference Finals, do we really believe that going remain the Final result.

Of course not. I think Saskatchewan led for the only time the will today at 3-0, at this point the Over could be on it's way...

Well the Under held but naturally something turned as Saskatchewan made the comeback only to finish with Toronto and Under.

Are we really surprised that winner and spread is uncertain inside 3 minutes? It looked like something would turn, right down to the last play, but it remained the same result as the first half.

Regardless, there is still time to place bets for game two.

[KVB]

...If this game magically stays Toronto and Under it sure feels like the sharp forecasting analyst is being led right into the familiar Calgary trap...

Like a mouse after cheese, I’ve walked right down the path and once again try to go against Calgary here with Edmonton Eskimos +5 (-108) and +185 over Calgary Stampeders.

There is a battle of streak riders versus streak breakers, especially when looking at recent ATS results.

Will Calgary pay the price for cruising at the end of the season as the bettors line up to give them win and cover or will Edmonton continue the run I predicted a few weeks ago, right into final game?

I’ll accept any result, but I’m going with the predicted moneyflow and the broad numbers.

Good Luck.

[Hngkng]

Congrats on your under.

That one hurts (as a Riders fan, not bettor), so close to the Grey cup.

[KVB]

It looks like Edmonton came to play and that Calgary is rusty. Even with Edmonton scoring first, they've been a big part of 5 straight winning bold plays including a big position two weeks ago.

Edmonton getting it done at the end of this season.

Like a mouse after cheese, I’ve walked right down the path and once again try to go against Calgary here with Edmonton Eskimos +5 (-108) and +185 over Calgary Stampeders...

They did score first, so I have to bring out the sharks. No live trades here, there really is no value or even a spot play here, yet.

[Hngkng]

It looks like Edmonton came to play and that Calgary is rusty. Even with Edmonton scoring first, they've been a big part of 5 straight winning bold plays including a big position two weeks ago.

Edmonton getting it done at the end of this season.






They did score first, so I have to bring out the sharks. No live trades here, there really is no value or even a spot play here, yet.

Calgary has played like crap since the end of September. But they are Calgary, so lines will always favour them.

[KVB]

Calgary has played like crap since the end of September. But they are Calgary, so lines will always favour them.

True and now it's 14-0, that's a lot early, I'm not buying Calgary LIVE even though the sharks are out...

[Hngkng]

This is pathetic

[Hngkng]

That might be the dumbest decision ever on 3rd and 4. But it won us the Edmonton +5.0!!

[KVB]

Edmonton kicked a bizarre field goal to insure the cover but also to virtually guarantee a loss of game.

Strange ending, perhaps having something to do with one of the missed field goals earlier.

The announcer thinks the coach didn't know the correct score before calling for the field goal, lol.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.



Good calls with the playoffs altogether for this thread.

[KVB]

That might be the dumbest decision ever on 3rd and 4. But it won us the Edmonton +5.0!!

It made no sense, in any sense. If you go for it and miss, you have to rely on defense anyway and they are a bit pinned.

Why kick off to them still needing a touchdown?

Unless you need to cover the spread. Like I said, there were a couple of missed field goals earlier.

The CFL once again reminding the bettors who is in control.



Will be interesting to see if there is an explanation...lol.

[Hngkng]

It made no sense, in any sense. If you go for it and miss, you have to rely on defense anyway and they are a bit pinned.

Why kick off to them still needing a touchdown?

Unless you need to cover the spread. Like I said, there were a couple of missed field goals earlier.

The CFL once again reminding the bettors who is in control.



Will be interesting to see if there is an explanation...lol.

The only logical explanation is that the Edmonton head coach was on Edmonton +5.0.

Can't wait for him to get asked about the decision!
I hate him like crazy, so him screwing up big makes the day a lot better!

[KVB]

His reasoning is a bit bullshit. He might as well have gone for it then gone for two to win or lose.

After all, he was all the way down to the 13 yardline when he chose to cover the spread instead of win the game.

There's a video along with the story in this link, he fields the obvious question...

https://www.cfl.ca/2017/11/19/maas-addresses-controversial-play-call/

It's not what they bring; it's how they bring it. I've said before that it's only when you understand and accept what is being brought that you can appreciate how it's brought. It's a big part of this thread and why I've tried to show examples of moneyflow and bookmaking techniques in real time, whether plays one or lost.

And anymore in this day and age, with all modern sports, they just don't care if people know what they bring. The bright side is that people have the chance to really appreciate how it's brought.

But when, between the two teams and the refs, the job can’t get done, I consider it very unprofessional to put individuals in these positions. There are countless examples: sometimes the poor QB has to throw the pick, a ref has to make the terrible call and stick with it, even replay officials have had to support obvious errors; and sometimes a coach is put in a situation where he has to make a certain call, like tonight.

During the regular season, I've always considered this to be unprofessional, particularly when the college players are left hanging. But this is the Conference Finals.

There was no pinch here, with desperation. No. This was more of homage to the audience who understands what they bring, and can already appreciate how they bring it. It was one last goodbye until next year.

We'll remember this year. We'll remember things like what Montreal has done, and when they did it; in positions like Week 13 on September 17th. The market, driven by so many factors, pushed a line from Ottawa -3 to Montreal -1, and Montreal couldn't handle the pressure. Where there is give, there will be take; and so the rotation revolves.

The point is that each season tells a story, for each team and as a whole, and this season's story has just about ended. There is one game left and it figures to be a good one, perhaps with Calgary failing again.

I'll save that for another post.

[Hngkng]

He has to say that just to save his look to the public. Bottom line is, this was a huge brain fart by Maas.

During that drive, he told his DC that he would go for 2 points if they score a TD, and to get ready to come up with a stop if the 2 points didn't work out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsSv7b8G3As

http://3downnation.com/2017/09/09/jason-maas-loses-damn-mind-draws-penalty/

https://twitter.com/DaveDawson7/status/917483713813815296

The thing is when there are weekly episodes of Maas losing it to his assistant coaches, no one will ever question him!

[Hngkng]

Grey Cup line opens Calgary -7.0

I might bet this as early as tomorrow (Tuesday). Will be taking Toronto +7.0; I feel like line will only go down.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Toronto winning with 30 points to Calgary’s 13 points.

The stacking forecast says Toronto wins with the same 30 points to Calgary’s 20 or 22 points. Unsophisticated methods using season averages and medians give Calgary anywhere from a 3 to 8 point win with a Total in the upper 40’s. The public gauge has Calgary winning 25-20.

I mentioned the battle between streak riders and streak breakers, especially involving recent ATS results, that was taking place in the Calgary versus Edmonton game. Much of those same conditions exist in the Grey Cup and while the moneyflow indicated the Edmonton cover last game, the way at which that game was brought (the final field goal) indicated that an intentional settlement took place with the Edmonton cover.

Also, the playoffs so far have had four games occurring over two Sundays. In the first round we saw the Underdog and Under followed by the Favorite and Over. In the second round we saw the Favorite and Under followed by the Underdog and Over. Against the closing lines, both days showed that natural settlement I’ve been talking about. This is not surprising considering these are the higher volume, attention gathering playoffs.

The forecasts above are similar to the forecast in the last Calgary game and in an effort at some give and take settlement there are two paths for the money. One is Calgary covering the spread; the other is Calgary outright losing on the moneyline…neither of which happened last week.

With the other playoff settlements out of the way, the market moving analysts are likely to join the public and the pressure for Calgary, the best team in the league, to cover the spread. A high profile example of this type of situation would be the Super Bowl in which the New England Patriots played the New York Giants. In what was a shocking upset to many, considered then to be one of the largest, some of us were not surprised. This is one way in which upsets are created for the market.

In countering the expected market pressure on Calgary, I have picked up Toronto Argonauts +7.5 (-108) and +260 over the Calgary Stampeders.

I think there is question here on the moneyline as the sharp forecast has done so well this season but has failed two games in a row against the moneyline. In similar situation this season with less volume, efforts to get the third loss against the moneyline have failed. The sharp forecast has just been too strong and has not failed three consecutive times, in rotation order, against the moneyine at all this season. This is the final game of the season and it’s most certainly the case that we could see the moneyline finally fail here.

I have only made one trade on the moneyline but I picked up Toronto Argonauts +7.5 (-120) and +7 (+101) over Calgary Stampeders in an effort to balance the potential loss on the moneyline as we could see the same moneyline and spread result as we did last week.

There may be initial pressure is on the Over here and the CFL does usually promise a well-organized and entertaining final. This leads to a tendency on the Over but at this point, given the success in analyzing Totals for the playoffs so far, this Total currently looks like a gamble. The Total currently sits between the stacking forecast and the public gauge. It will be interesting to see if this line moves higher on public pressure or lower, towards the sharp forecast in what may look like a form of reverse line movement.

I would think it will move higher as the sharp forecast may not have a large influence against the public this time and the stacking forecast sidelines some market moving money.

Good Luck.

[Hngkng]

YES!!

I was gonna PM you tonight if you didn't reply here because I like Toronto +7.5 that much. And feel like the line may go against me.

[KVB]

It looks like the the +7.5's are disappearing. Last game of the season.

Good Luck Hngkng and anyone else on this one.

[CanuckG]

Stamps by 28

[KVB]

Calgary out for revenge after last year's debacle against Ottawa for sure. They've been taking down the money going against them for a good part of the season.

Maybe the win, but the pressure to cover is pretty high. This could be the year of a push.

[Hngkng]

On Toronto +7.0 big, small on Toronto moneyline. Stamps looking for a GC win after last year. Well Im 100% sure they as happy winning by 1 or 28.

[KVB]

Its snowing like crazy, looking like the UNDER was the play.

[KVB]

Good Work Toronto backers.

[KVB]

...I hate to lead early; it’s the psychology with ancient roots that leads to that fact...

Remember this post?

Calgary scored first, Toronto took the lead for the first time with 49 seconds left in the game.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[Hngkng]

Blow Levi Mitchel hahahahahhahaha. I love it!!!

Im happier to see Calgary lose than us winning the bets.

[packerd_00]

Calgary had that game in the bag,Jorden you muppet.

[Hngkng]

Calgary had that game in the bag,Jorden you muppet.

Yup. Even if they took a knee there and kicked the FG, they more than likely would win outright. As for cover the spread, not sure.

[packerd_00]

Yup. Even if they took a knee there and kicked the FG, they more than likely would win outright. As for cover the spread, not sure.

Yeah I think with the way the weather was and time left on the clock, two possesions would have been a lot to overcome.

[Hngkng]

"Marquay McDaniel just threw his teammate under the Grey Cup bus.

In the moments after their devastating loss to the Toronto Argonauts in Sunday’s championship game, the veteran Calgary receiver blamed the loss on teammate Kamar Jorden’s fumble.

Leading by eight with just over five minutes to play and already on the Toronto seven yard line, quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell completed a short pass to Jorden who was promptly stripped by Argo defender Jermaine Gabriel. Cassius Vaughn scooped it up and returned 109 yards for a touchdown

A two-point conversion by Declan Cross tied the game and the Stamps lost after a Toronto field goal with under a minute to go and a Mitchell interception in the end zone.

But McDaniel teed off on Jorden’s miscue.

“It’s a stupid play to be real. I mean ****, we were inside the 15 up eight with a chance to at least get a field goal. What are you doing? We talked all game about putting two hands on the ball. What are you doing? It’s a stupid play,” McDaniel said. “You can talk all you want about doing this, doing that,. It’s a dumb play. Stupid football loses games.”

It will be interesting to see how his teammates react to his comments, particularly after watching film of Vaughn’s return. It shows McDaniel seeming to give up on the play as Vaughn crosses the 20-yard line on his way to the end zone."

Let the fun begin in Calgary!

[Hngkng]

I want to say a special thanks to KVB, Coolcanuck79!

ChuckyTheGoat, packerd_00, CanuckG. I might have missed a few in this thread.

There is no doubt in my mind that we came out winning in the 2017 CFL season. It was a great one, hope to see you all back in 7 months!

[Jayvegas420]

Fun season.
Some tremendous information in this thread!
Well done Men.

[Art Vandelay]

Great season boys! Once again the CFL, and especially the Grey Cup, a great watch. We will see how the Stamps recover from this gagjob, which made the Ottawa last year loss seem mild by comparison. Just a complete collapse on all fronts in the last 5 minutes!

[cankid]

WTF quick the turn of events late, CFL is a great watch, many people are idiots always saying the NFL is so much a better watch than the CFL, hahaha makes no sense, what a finish, yikes, congrats to Toronto

[Coolcanuck79]

Congrats Argo backers!!! It was a fun season for sure. Sure wished the Red Blacks would have made it this year with the game being here in Ottawa.

Cheers to all the guys that made this thread fun and profitable on a weekly basis!! (especially KVB and Hngkng!)