The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

The sharp forecast:

There is a tie between British Columbia and Hamilton with each team getting 19 or 20 points and Hamilton, yes Hamilton, getting a slight moneyline edge in the raw score. One might say Hamilton wins 20 to 19, but that would be a mistake. The adjusted scores are what they are and each team scores 19 or 20 points with equal probability…

...The updated stacking percentages forecast for all games are:

British Columbia wins with 30 points to Hamilton’s 20 or 22 points...

…The non-predictive public gauge, which is subject to change, shows:

British Columbia 34, Hamilton 18...

So the long term sharp forecast doesn’t give us a moneyline winner for this game. Once again, it’s a bit away from the other predictions and the offered spread. It’s a long term forecast, but this falls in line with the correction I’ve mentioned. Last week, in the face of expecting a correction in the sharp forecast, we saw each line move away from the forecast. Game two tonight will technically be a sixth game in a row, although the movement isn’t much and the line isn’t showing movement now.

...Also, for the fifth game in a row, the line has moved away from the sharp forecast. We still have signs that the success of the sharp forecast will correct and this seems like an excellent game to start that correction, especially following last week’s perfect run.

The next game tonight is also showing slight spread movement away from the forecast and it’s possible we see the results go in accordance with the movement, with both favorites covering...

Ottawa is in trouble, as it looked to be before the game.

We are in the midst of the correction and the difference between the sharp forecast and the rest helps to show it. I expect British Columbia to cover the spread and I wasn’t planning on putting in any bold plays but analysis has been pretty good and metrics show the correction so I picked up British Columbia Lions -12.5 (-105) over Hamilton Tiger Cats.

It’s always possible the long term sharp forecast has exposed something, and Hamilton can be strong, but short term metrics allow for this trade and the market is beginning to hide an upset. This game isn’t likely the one.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Winnipeg up by 20 right now, Lindley looks awful tonight, but tough conditions, pouring rain.

I like Hamilton +12.5 in the later game, however one point of concern is the time zone.
Kickoff is at 8 BC local time, and 11 Hamilton local time. I believe if this is an afternoon game, Hamilton could easily win with +12.5; but this being so late, we could get a late BC cover.

Either way, I am doing Hamilton +12.5; just not huge.

I went the other way here. I think the market is beginning to hide an upset and, truthfully, having the dog squeeze a cover in here can help to serve that purpose as well.

Let's see what happens.

[Hngkng]

I went the other way here. I think the market is beginning to hide an upset and, truthfully, having the dog squeeze a cover in here can help to serve that purpose as well.

Let's see what happens.

I totally understand that, and why markers are going that. We are going head to head,all the best!

[KVB]

There is pressure coming in the -12.5, now we're seeing -13 all over the place. I think it's the market is exploiting the natural give and take on multiple levels and may be selling the underdog again.

It's a good move to generate action and we will likely see more buys buys on +13, especially as the favorite in game one solidifies it's spot.

[KVB]

I have also countered the sharp forecast and its Total prediction by picking up OVER 52 (-105) for Hamilton versus British Columbia.

I didn’t address the Total situation much but can see money being driven to the Under, but the line has shown little movement the other way.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I have also picked up OVER 51.5 (-125) for Hamilton versus British Columbia.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I didn’t get to address the Total for this second game like I wanted to because of the rush to type and get plays into the books and thread. In a nutshell, there was pressure on the Under all week, but the line didn’t show the movement. Instead, it stayed at the stacking forecast and gauge. The pressure wasn’t just from the sharp forecast, but there were market elements seeking a settlement with an Under.

When the weather and subsequent line began a push downward, and it was evident the sharp forecast was going to fail, in an effort to seek more settlement and some give and take, bettors flocked to the sharp forecast.

That’s too much on the Under when the line nudges upward in an apparent reflection of the natural give and take of a two game day. It was Under the books were getting, the Over money not as much.

Intentionally not showing the Under pressure revealed a card and led to the indication of an Over play, an indication that should have moved the line by game time. The books didn’t appear to want to move this line much in any direction.

The opening of the game is on pace for the Over and with the Over leading early it’s time for the sharks…

[KVB]

I picked up British Columbia Lions -6.5 (-115) 2^nd HALF over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast:

There is a tie between British Columbia and Hamilton with each team getting 19 or 20 points and Hamilton, yes Hamilton, getting a slight moneyline edge in the raw score…

...It’s always possible the long term sharp forecast has exposed something, and Hamilton can be strong, but short term metrics allow for this trade and the market is beginning to hide an upset. This game isn’t likely the one...

The game finished 24-23 with Hamilton winning and each team scoring a field goal in the final two minutes. The market was clearly setting up for a decent upset and I was surprised to see it come so soon.

Once again, the sharp forecast prevails against the spread and the bold trades fall by the wayside.

[Ra77er]

Sharp stacking and public on CFL. KVB you need a podcast.

[Hngkng]

Sharp stacking and public on CFL. KVB you need a podcast.

^^
I would listen to thaat weekly!

On a side note, liking Toronto -7.0 today.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sharp stacking and public on CFL. KVB you need a podcast.

Over my head. I would listen, tho.

Ian Cameron podcast has been coming up late, for some reason.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dumb question. Any of u guys play this CFL Fantasy?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

MTL: Durant to start. But it has to be a quick-hook, w/ Willy waiting.

[Hngkng]

Dumb question. Any of u guys play this CFL Fantasy?

Yes, through TSN.

[Hngkng]

Over my head. I would listen, tho.

Ian Cameron podcast has been coming up late, for some reason.

I like Ian Cameron a lot, but not a fan of Andrew McKinnis on his show on SBR. McKinnis just seems like one of those homers that goes by generalities, and does not really know what goes on in the CFL.

[Booya711]

Montreal +7.5 tonight

[KVB]

The sharp forecast:

Toronto wins with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 13 points...

...The updated stacking percentages forecast for all games are:

Toronto wins with 30 points to Montreal’s 16 or 17 points…

…The non-predictive public gauge, which is subject to change, shows:

Toronto 24, Montreal 17...

This line, according the forecasts, opened a little low with Toronto -5.5 and we have seen it climb to -7.5 and then we see some Montreal pressure. Like last week, there is pressure on Montreal to win or cover a spread and even though they disappointed a large numbers of bettors last week, the pressure still exists. There is also pressure on Toronto, from the numbers as well as other metrics regarding the battle between streak breakers and streak riders.

With Montreal’s performance last week it’s no wonder the line has pushed upward.

In a world of give and take, we can’t help but think that Montreal has run its course and should get the cover. Shit, last week they were about as “due” as you can become, even moving the line across the pick ‘em to become favored and still was letting the bettors down.

The bottom line is that metrics are a bit mixed here. I am still skeptical of the sharp forecast, especially considering last night’s precision. Also, I think there are still upsets to be had, even this week, and the two games left have a special money flow of their own.

I passed on the first game yesterday, when strong upset metrics spoiled Ottawa, to simply fail with the bold play in the face of the natural favorite and underdog tendency of the give and take markets. There was settlement among the spread and moneyline yesterday and I can see that there are two underdog indications in the remaining games that can’t be ignored.

It’s another mini market of settlement, with the final game on NFL Sunday. Notice the lines in the remaining two games, they’ve shown a similarity I’ve discussed in the past. It’s yet another situation where the sharp forecast could succeed against the moneyline and fail against the spread, and one of these days Montreal will respond, but if we treat it like the beginning of money flow, then there is not enough cause to counter the sharp forecast.

When we treat it as its own issue, the long term sharp forecast speaks for itself. That said, in terms of money flow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game end within the spread, maybe even with Toronto winning by 6 or 7. This would serve to confuse some of the market as we enter Sunday.

I’m passing on a trade here, waiting to gather what information we can from this game. I will say this, regardless of the spread result, it seems Calgary could be put in yet another position to be countered and we all know how that’s gone this season.

[KVB]

Montreal +7.5 tonight

I think the hook is a good thing here, it's worth having tonight for sure.

Good Luck

[Booya711]

This line, according the forecasts, opened a little low with Toronto -5.5 and we have seen it climb to -7.5 and then we see some Montreal pressure. Like last week, there is pressure on Montreal to win or cover a spread and even though they disappointed a large numbers of bettors last week, the pressure still exists. There is also pressure on Toronto, from the numbers as well as other metrics regarding the battle between streak breakers and streak riders.

With Montreal’s performance last week it’s no wonder the line has pushed upward.

In a world of give and take, we can’t help but think that Montreal has run its course and should get the cover. Shit, last week they were about as “due” as you can become, even moving the line across the pick ‘em to become favored and still was letting the bettors down.

The bottom line is that metrics are a bit mixed here. I am still skeptical of the sharp forecast, especially considering last night’s precision. Also, I think there are still upsets to be had, even this week, and the two games left have a special money flow of their own.

I passed on the first game yesterday, when strong upset metrics spoiled Ottawa, to simply fail with the bold play in the face of the natural favorite and underdog tendency of the give and take markets. There was settlement among the spread and moneyline yesterday and I can see that there are two underdog indications in the remaining games that can’t be ignored.

It’s another mini market of settlement, with the final game on NFL Sunday. Notice the lines in the remaining two games, they’ve shown a similarity I’ve discussed in the past. It’s yet another situation where the sharp forecast could succeed against the moneyline and fail against the spread, and one of these days Montreal will respond, but if we treat it like the beginning of money flow, then there is not enough cause to counter the sharp forecast.

When we treat it as its own issue, the long term sharp forecast speaks for itself. That said, in terms of money flow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game end within the spread, maybe even with Toronto winning by 6 or 7. This would serve to confuse some of the market as we enter Sunday.

I’m passing on a trade here, waiting to gather what information we can from this game. I will say this, regardless of the spread result, it seems Calgary could be put in yet another position to be countered and we all know how that’s gone this season.

i enjoy your writeups KVB....BOL on your bets

[KVB]

Dumb question. Any of u guys play this CFL Fantasy?

Haven't seen it. Doesn't seem like enough players to make it work for a very big fantasy league. Maybe there are though.

[KVB]

i enjoy your writeups KVB....BOL on your bets

Thanks.

I'm actually not too happy with this one today, I felt a bit rushed and hit on so many things but not much detail in them. I wish I could have a more confident play.

I'm not going to lie, in a nutshell it should be Montreal, but it's a fukked up world.

Montreal already experienced that last week so this could be their time.

Like I said, I think there are upsets left this week, and if it doesn't happen today, then Calgary is left...and we know how that's gone this season.

[KVB]

Pressure coming in on Montreal at this point, right before kick off, and we see some -6.5's out there.

Here they go again. In a world of give and take, Montreal should get it tonight, let's see if the score lands on 7, reflecting what a tough issue we have to settle.

[Hngkng]

I did Toronto -7.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Durant, u prikball. Damn, this guy is past-due.

[KVB]

Tough start for Montreal, can they back door cover? It's going to be very tough, but it is a game of halves.

With a Toronto cover we may be seeing the worst of the sharp forecast correction and it's not too bad.

Since failing 3 straight times against the spread 2 weeks ago, the sharp forecast has been successful against the spread 5 out of the last 6 games, with Toronto pending.

So much for the correction.

[Booya711]

I did Toronto -7.5

Good call

Tough start for Montreal, can they back door cover? It's going to be very tough, but it is a game of halves.

With a Toronto cover we may be seeing the worst of the sharp forecast correction and it's not too bad.

Since failing 3 straight times against the spread 2 weeks ago, the sharp forecast has been successful against the spread 5 out of the last 6 games, with Toronto pending.

So much for the correction.

what team did Montreal actually field tonight?? Some Canadian high school??

[ChuckyTheGoat]

KVB, u should think about doing the podcast that guys suggested above. I think u could blow away Ian Cameron's video.

Ian focuses a lot on player personnel (which has value). If u get into the nuts + bolts of gambling, I think you'd get a nice following.

[KVB]

KVB, u should think about doing the podcast that guys suggested above. I think u could blow away Ian Cameron's video.

Ian focuses a lot on player personnel (which has value). If u get into the nuts + bolts of gambling, I think you'd get a nice following.

...Not many people analyze the market like I do, that's for sure.

[Hngkng]

What's crazy is Calgary only has one loss so far. To Montreal.....

[Ra77er]

I was being serious but perhaps Kvb has no interest. Eskimos next week

[KVB]

I was being serious but perhaps Kvb has no interest. Eskimos next week

I like the idea actually, it would be fun to tackle other markets as well. I always hear a focus on past trends or the players on the field, I never here anyone talking about the current, real time state of the market.

It sounds like fun.

[Ra77er]

SBR get him on network give him a shot look at his work on here. #SSP with KVBer

[KVB]

Ra77er, you are a good guy and thanks for the kind words.

[Hngkng]

The only way I can look today is Saskatchewan +5.5; but it most likely will be a pass for me.