If I get get a line with Saskatchewan +3.0 or more, Im going to take a shot at that.
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The line had significant pressure on the Under as we approached kick off, dropping it as low as 57. According to SBR, Pinny was holding at 60, adjusting the price significantly.
Pinny undoubtedly took money on that Over as the price became so attractive.
TIME OVER UNDER 09/09 02:57 PM 60 +126 60 -145 09/09 02:56 PM 60 +123 60 -141 09/09 02:55 PM 60 +120 60 -138 09/09 02:50 PM 60 +113 60 -130 09/09 01:12 PM 60 +111 60 -127 09/09 12:34 PM 60 +109 60 -125 09/09 04:22 AM 60 +100 60 -115
I think that money will fall, and is part of the reason for my play.
Once again ahead of the market, let's see if it's also a winner.
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The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 40 or more points to Hamilton’s 16 points.
The stacking forecast shows Ottawa winning with 36 or 37 points to Hamilton’s 13 or 14 points. Most basic methods give Ottawa the handy win with scores in the upper 50’s and even 60. The public gauge has Ottawa winning 35-18.
The line opened with Ottawa -12.5 and has moved away from the forecast, and the other numbers. The 11 points line seems to be a settling point. The Total has remained at 54 and is between the sharp forecast and the other numbers.
The public likes its Ottawa and the Over but the line isn’t really showing it, as they can only go so high here. I think the books like their action here but I don’t see a bold play developing yet. In fact, Hamilton winning again or at least covering this spread cannot be ruled out.
They have a chance of surprising again. The first game is at halftime and while it looks like the favorite and Over, there’s still a half to play.
Further, this game is sandwiched between the two games that are rematches from last week. I think the books want bettors to gamble today as they attract the overflow and swell of money from the other markets. There are reasons to make plays, and those reasons can be misleading.
We have time before the third game and I plan to use it to see if that extra money in the pot is enough to push a line into edge territory in regards to trading and bold plays.
We still have time before the second game as well, and a play hasn’t been ruled out there, yet. For now, it’s a pass.
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Wow did not see this 20-1 lead for Hamilton.Comment -
I did, missed the trade.
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Leaning Calgary -6Comment -
KVB, I don't have it in front of me. Overs have to be > 60% ATS this year.
Winnipeg (and Sask) fly over every week.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
The sharp forecast says Calgary wins with 40 or more points to Edmonton’s 17 points.
The stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 39 points to Edmonton’s 13 or 14 points. Most methods give a Calgary blowout with varying scores throughout the 50’s and the public gauge has Calgary winning 31-23.
The Calgary -6 line seems a bit low but there is a need for settlement, with the first rematch today showing revenge, but the same result of a favorite and an Over, the second rematch will see pressure on both the underdog and the Under. The issue here is that nothing is giving. The lines aren’t reflecting what should also be some fairly heavy public Calgary money. Yes, the streak breaking bettors are in full force, but it’s only being offset by other market factors, like the previous success of those streak breaking bettors.
The books have managed to put the market into a gamble on many fronts. To take advantage of the lower 6 point line, a moneyline play on Calgary should not be ruled out. In fact, if the sharp forecast fails twice today against the moneyline, something it hasn’t done yet this year, there is a good chance the sharp forecast will be successful with the Calgary moneyline.
But it’s not just whether or not the moneyline is “due”; many factors and metrics are flat or mixed. On the other hand, money is stacked, and I think the low line is a danger for Calgary. I suspect we will have already seen a favorite and over and underdog and Under today, before kickoff of game three. Again, there is little deception.
This would be indicative of the mixed nature of the market. There is a real and sharp pressure for Calgary to lose game, as well as fail to cover. Analysts following the money can easily be fooled today with thinking like the paragraph above, where I say the Calgary moneyline has a good chance.
The fact is, with such a split set of metrics, anything that could cause money to flow could be the tip we need to solve the puzzle. I see a few reasons, and they are adding up, to pick up Calgary, some not very sophisticated, but they are there nonetheless. The earlier success of streak breaking bettors is just one of them.
Edmonton could win this game. This could be the CFL market attempting cash in the some of the late swell of cash in the books this weekend. The market already looks to take down a 12 point favorite.
I think money is being steered to Calgary and the low line of -6 isn’t moving like perhaps we should see it move. This is suspicious to me and does not bode well for the Calgary spread or moneyline.
I haven’t picked up the dog yet; I want to see how the books play it over the next half hour or so.
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Including the first 2 games THIS WEEK, there have been 47 games. There have been 23 Overs, 22 Unders, and two pushes. Both pushes have been at a 55 point opening and closing line.
Before this week, Unders were leading. The first two games this week were Overs, and the third one may be coming in game 3.
Last edited by KVB; 09-09-17, 07:25 PM. Reason: it includes the first games this week, one Fri and the first on Sat.Comment -
I picked up Edmonton Eskimos +6.5 (-107) and +190 over Calgary Stampeders.
Heritage still holds +6.5 and +190 is in many places.
Good Luck.
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Heritage no longer holds +6.5, it's down to 6.
That didn't take long.Comment -
Note from CFL.ca:
* EDM only has one healthy RB.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
All season we have seen cases where in back to backs, the home team wins big, then the home team wins the week after, resulting in a split.
The question is does Edmonton have enough healthy bodies to keep this trend?Comment -
Ottawa trying to pull a comeback but the Hamilton spread will pay.Comment -
The natural give and take of the markets, we saw it in game one today.
Trying to counter that for tonight's game just adds another reason for a certain bettors to pick up Calgary.
I think money has been steered and think Edmonton is going to find the bodies to put in an effort. Look for a defensive effort.
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I am definitely on Edmonton +6.5 for the final game.The natural give and take of the markets, we saw it in game one today.
Trying to counter that for tonight's game just adds another reason for a certain bettors to pick up Calgary.
I think money has been steered and think Edmonton is going to find the bodies to put in an effort. Look for a defensive effort.
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We are seeing pressure on the Over, towards the sharp forecast and away from the other numbers. This pressure is suspect and I would question it's nature and origin. The market may be exploiting the extra public swell by inducing steam on an Over play.
Game three tonight could go Under, fitting in with an expectation of a defensive game.
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If Edmonton wants to win, they have to keep the ball, and not give it to Calgary. So must slow the pace.Comment -
Today the sharp forecast failed against the moneyline and spread in two games in a row. That has not happened in the rotation order since I began posting in Week 4.
There have been two instances where the sharp forecast failed against the spread in two consecutive games, weeks 6 and 7, but neither of those included the moneyline.
The sharp forecast has not failed against the moneyline in two games, consecutive or not, in any week, until today. An Edmonton victory would make it three failures this week.
Welcome to the second half of the season. It's a shame none of that Hamilton victory or cover will be in the record of bold plays.
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I picked up Edmonton Eskimos +3 (-110) 2nd Half over Calgary Stampeders.
Good Luck.
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The second half line has moved to -2.5 and I'm once again ahead of the market at the time of purchase.
Let's see if it can translate into a winner, and not just a push.
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Edmonton covered in what was basically a defensive game, leading to the Under.
Pretty good analysis on today's market.
For the first time all season, the sharp forecast failed against the spread in 3 of the 4 games, all three today.
Calgary held on in the end to give the sharp forecast a success against the moneyline. Seeing it fail three times was a difficult situation for the market to endure, and ultimately didn't have to today.
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It would have been a better day for the bold plays had I been around for that Hamilton game. It's going to be a while before we can make up that missed play.
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Have not seen a single line yet for CFL. It's Tuesday.
I'm assuming that this has to do w/ the hurricane activity that knocked out some shops in Caribbean. Sort of shows that almost no one is capable of posting a solid CFL opener.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
No lines anywhere Chucky. I'm not sure what is going on here.
If shops need some help, I could probably offer an opener for the games...lol...but we all know I'm a player at heart.
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KVB, for kicks, post your numbers for the upcoming games.Comment -
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
The Non predictive public gauge as of now, but this could change slightly...
Sascatchewan 31, Hamilton 24
Edmonton 27, Toronto 25
Calgary 33, BC 20
Ottawa 25, Montreal 22
I think openers could be near these numbers, including the totals. For sides and totals, I think more will be in line with openers than not.
I'll put other numbers out in a bit, a have to run a few errands. I'm not sure I have all the info for the stacking forecasts, but I can do the sharp forecast.
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Is the sharp forecast based on your prediction, whereas the non predictive public gauge are the numbers you believe CRIS or Pinny will open with?Comment -
I've noticed over time that the openers are often close to the stacking forecast and public gauge. Where they open isn't always dictated by those numbers. I notice the stacking forecast can be closer to Totals, but the public gauge is often very close on both.
The public gauge isn't designed to figure the opener, but it often comes close. All the forecasts are ratings based. They come up with a rating for each team before being massaged into the prediction. The public gauge uses ratings that are general in the public place and gives me a sense of what the basic public is thinking. It’s based on basic information, just used with certain weightings. The gauge does not adjust for more realistic scores or key numbers, it’s a raw score. After all what does the public know about that…lol.
Over time it has become pretty good in terms of what it's for and I suppose it's proximity to the lines and sometimes the stacking and sharp forecast can be a testament to that.
The books want to split that public, usually and for the most part, so it makes sense that the public gauge is often close. Sometimes I think the gauge is most useful when it differs, especially along the moneyline, from the other numbers.
If I were trying to come up with openers, I would use the gauge, but then fine tune the number with further analysis. The sharp positions have to be considered. Then there’s the question of whether our goal is to split money or steer and stack it.
It can be a fun thing to try and predict moneyflow and I’ve used parlays for that in the past.
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One thing I’ve mentioned in the past was that I was fine giving the sharp forecast as long as I got my numbers, then I’m willing to share.
But this week I’ll put the forecast out. I will be watching those markets closely. Two years ago an analysis of timing and expected movement revealed the possibility that posting the forecast was moving markets. Limits can be small in this league and who knows; hence the joke with Ra77er.
Ra77er, check in pal.
Anyway the lines do move toward the sharp forecast in general, but not always. On the two moneyline losses last week, the first time we’ve seen two moneyline losses in any week, the lines moved slightly away from the forecast. A -1 went to -2 and a -12.5 closed at -12. Small movements, but they count in tracking.
So here are the long term sharp forecasts…
Saskatchewan wins with 40 or more points to Hamilton’s 23 points.
Toronto wins with 24 or 25 points to Edmonton’s 20 points.
Calgary wins with 24 points to British Columbia’s 13 points.
Ottawa win with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 8 points.
The sharp forecast has run hot and I will print the tracking when I put it together with links. We basically saw a bit of a correction last weekend, during a big NCAAF day and the swelled weekend of NFL bettors. The sharp forecast was 1-3 ATS, 2-2 against the moneyline and 1-3 against the Totals last weekend.
Let's see what kind of movement we get once they hang the lines.
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