Zylstra has been a great player in the CFL this year.
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Well that was a very entertaining game. Great win by the Bombers, and for I think everyone here?Comment -
I can't post here for 48 hours.
Thread rules....
Self imposed handicapper shamming
Good hitComment -
Liking both Hamilton +3.5 and BC +4.5 tonight. Interested in what everyone else is thinkingComment -
Red Blacks fan here and I don't think they have any business being favored by 3.5 over anyone at this point. I see a close game with the total nearing the 60 point range. 31-30, or 30-28 type of deal.Comment -
Betting on Ti Cats seems like an awful ideaComment -
Fuk I should have at least pulled the trigger on a LIVE line with that Over as I was so tempted to do. There's a reason they play it like they do, stretching that final result out.
A 3 point first quarter ends up with, yeah, a 59 point game. It's possible some of those manipulators got burned. Once the line it 59, no Under was good. With most houses picking up 58.5 and only dropping the line from there, we can see a bit of a position and a bit of, dare I say, dirtiness.
I should have snatched up an Over at any fukkin point. Someone slap me next time I'm posting a live line as it drops and don't post a bold play...lol.
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The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 33 or 34 points to Hamilton’s 20 or 22 points.
The stacking forecast shows Ottawa winning with 36 points to Hamilton’s 19 or 20 points. Less sophisticated methods, many using averages get a slightly higher scoring game but virtually all predictions give Ottawa the win. The public gauge says Ottawa wins 32-26.
The offered Total is a bit tighter for this game sitting at the sharp and stacking forecasts. The public gauge is a little higher but this line opened and has stayed pretty “sharp.” From the standpoint of analyzing the market, so many being sidelined could indicate an Under play.
In terms of favorites and dogs, Overs and Unders, wins and losses, etc, there are three things that can happen: a streak one direction, a streak the other direction, or alternating one way then the other. You can have a couple one way, then the other, but that’s really just alternating.
If we view the markets in terms of give and take, the alternating market is somewhat natural. Even if we look at the basic Over vs Under we’ve seen 7 Overs followed by 5 Unders before this week began. Now, I’m not saying to bet the opposite of a recent streak just because there’s been a few in a row. If you’ve followed the football post season and event recent CFL season you’ll know that often what is obvious to the public has a hidden side of money being stacked as well.
For example, last week there were 4 Unders and the sharp forecast failed 3 consecutive times. In the first game this week, it went Over, as predicted by the sharp forecast. Money was being stacked in other ways last week as well, just look at the situation with streak riding and streak breaking bettors concerning recent Total results of the teams playing.
My point is that the sharp Total, which, by the way is very similar to Ottawa’s first game last week when you look at the alignment with the forecasts, will sideline bettors, or force them to gamble. At a stage where the market is rolling out of a very streaky, for both results, phase, this tight line is just one indication that the market may be willing to ease into its “natural” give and take phase. Another indication came in the final game last week when looking, again, at recent Total results of the teams playing.
Just like yesterday’s sharp forecast being sidelined in regards to the moneyline helping to tip us off to the anticipated Edmonton loss, today’s forecast shows the same type of mechanic for the Total. This time however, the anticipation comes in the market seeking that give and take stature.
This gets a bit deep and delicate as there are more factors and metrics involved but last time we had market mechanics jump from the spread or moneyline side to the Totals involved the markets turning from shakeouts. I warned of the immediate jump and that it may take patience to realize, and thus passed on a winning play.
This time I didn’t heed that warning and I picked up UNDER 56 (-108) for Ottawa Redblacks versus Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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I like the overComment -
If you look at the season’s moneyline performance of the sharp forecast you’ll see that it too was in a streak. I say was because you can never know if you’re in the middle of streak, you can only know when you’ve just had one. That’s another post I think I’ve made already…lol.
Anyway, the sharp forecast failing with the BC prediction in the final game last week, a successful bold play, represented the first time the sharp forecast had failed while predicting the market favorite since game two of week 4, when each team had played 3 games.
So that streak ends with the final game last week and the first game this week there is no moneyline prediction for the sharp forecast. This is actually a common occurrence when things of this nature develop. The indication is that the forecast will fail in the very near term.
So Edmonton gets their first loss and Hamilton gets their first win, right? Not so fast. This is a day of two games and money will flow. The sharp forecast predicts a Calgary blowout. The market should be seeking to settle with one underdog and one favorite tonight and the need for a failure of the sharp forecast will play into settlement.
There have been five instances where two games have been played on the same day and in each one the same Underdog/Favorite ATS result occurred against the closing line. There was no give and take and this represents a stretched out market as well. Interestingly, with all these different ways to approach the markets being stretched out, it’s a wonder so many find the CFL so difficult to cap over time.
Anyway, sure Hamilton could get the win tonight, but it sure sounds like bait to help offset the payout that could occur with Calgary losing. Another indication that the market may settle this direction is the similarity in the lines of the two games. Readers from the last CFL thread received a few good lessons on the how the nature of give and take markets results in lines, among other things, coming in pairs.
It’s a bit to take in but needless to say I am passing on the first game tonight in anticipation of the potential BC upset.
In terms of how they play, I think I’m already speculating a bit on how it will all come out today can only be expected to be misled during the first game. We’ve been led right to the slaughterhouse by confirming factors of how they play in the past this season. My metrics on how game one should play out imply it’s simply too easy to expect Hamilton to take the lead early and they may just lose the lead in the end of the game. This situation suggests passing on first quarter and first half bets…even though Hamilton would be tempting.
Unfortunately, we could see a bit of back and forth in game one tonight…which doesn’t bode well for my Under bet, but wasn’t enough to take me off of it.
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We could see some back and forth but the CFL can have a lot of possessions result in little to no score. It could get close and interesting as they could be on pace for the Total the whole game.
The Totals today are similar for both games as well. The same patience I'm calling for on the spread and moneyline I may have needed for the Total.
It looks like the line is dropping around the world, I don't see 56 anymore.
Ra77er? Are we moving markets again?
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It's down to 55 here in Vegas
Don't like that it's going the other way
I'll see what's there 2nd halfComment -
I was sitting in Spain here the other day and showing this clown's threads to my friends asking myself why this pathetic janitor lowlife is till posting? Seriously what drives this pathetic toothless clown to still post here? The only answer that we could come up with is this clown realized long time ago that his pathetic life is a done deal and this is the only out he's got left...he literally comes back here after polishing them restrooms and this is his only friend that he's got left.
He reminds of a boston skunk monkey who was yapping here the other day about her car washing techniques.
This is a e-out for JayVegas420)...The e-out who's not gonna make fun of his toothless grill)
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The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 40 or more points to British Columbia’s 19 or 20 points.
The stacking forecast says Calgary wins with 34 or 36 points to BC’s 20 or 22 points. Most unsophisticated numbers give a Total between 58 and 61 and virtually all numbers give Calgary the win. The public gauge has a closer game with Calgary winning 31-27.
The line opened early with Calgary -3.5, moved to toward the forecast to trade as high as -5 and was picked up about -4.5 worldwide. The Total is again close to the stacking forecast and traded upwards to 57.5 but has come back to the 56 point opener.
This is game two tonight and like the previous post said I’m watching game one with ideas on the flow of money. It is my belief the market will give one favorite and one underdog against the spread tonight. In a previous post, I made the jump to include the moneyline in that give and take. Truthfully, the metric is against the spread, not moneyline, but with Hamilton leading the day off, it shows indications that the moneyline is at a stake as well.
Of course, just when you figure it out, it can be hard to profit and if BC is to pressure Calgary tonight for an upset, it could get stolen in the end, while the BC just covers the spread.
There’s still plenty of football to play before then.
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Good analysis here I'm going to try to CalgaryComment -
As Ottawa took a big lead the market saw pressure on BC and the line has subsequently moved nearly everywhere. The market seeks the settlement.
Pinny is holding at 4, but a price is developing on the underdog side.
Let's see if Hamilton can make it a bit more ambiguous, which would, of course, kill the Over.
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The same thing is also sought for the Total and as the first game appeared to be a solid Under, the Total for game two saw pressure on the Over.
Pinny also not so quick to move and continues to stick with price changes on the pressure.
The Total result for game one has become much more ambiguous.Comment -
It sure feels like the market is selling BC but I think it's time.
I have picked up British Columbia Lions +3.5 (-108) over Calgary Stampeders.
Good Luck.
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Kicker goes 6 for 6 for field goals but completely shanks the extra point that would have pushed the 56 point line and taken down all those under bets near game time.
Let's hope the market is as generous to the BC bettors and gives us a 3 point game instead of a 4 point game.
I'm passing on the moneyline, the market just seems overbought and I'm not so sure it's going to be that generous.
As far as the kicker goes, it's give and take on all levels. As far as the brutal shank, it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it...lol.
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Sounds like you really know how to vacation.I was sitting in Spain here the other day and showing this clown's threads to my friends asking myself why this pathetic janitor lowlife is till posting? Seriously what drives this pathetic toothless clown to still post here? The only answer that we could come up with is this clown realized long time ago that his pathetic life is a done deal and this is the only out he's got left...he literally comes back here after polishing them restrooms and this is his only friend that he's got left.
He reminds of a boston skunk monkey who was yapping here the other day about her car washing techniques.
This is a e-out for JayVegas420)...The e-out who's not gonna make fun of his toothless grill)
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With so many indicators and factors at play I am not one bit surprised the first game was a push against the opening and closing 55 point line.
At such a crucial stage in the market, it does indicate a leveling off of the markets (towards a more natural give and take state) but it can also serve to disrupt the record keeping of individuals who have made it this far in their analysis.
Winning long term at sports is difficult for so many reasons and results like this type of push can be just one more arrow that the bettor must figure out how to avoid, or in this case how to deal with it.
They truly hold no quarter.
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In play total down to 50Comment -
Never mind, back down. I'm hoping to now get in at 48.5.Comment -
Still 50.5 @ Bet365Comment -
With that push earlier it's tough to read Total here, I think there will still be chances to get a low Over.
The BC moneyline, as it pushes 2-1 starts to look very tempting. These levels show value in this circumstance but I think the lines is held back little.
It may not be showing value as bait, but may be a play.
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I totally agree. I took the +3.5 pre-game for a few units but want a better shot at the ML and total in-play. (more so on the total)With that push earlier it's tough to read Total here, I think there will still be chances to get a low Over.
The BC moneyline, as it pushes 2-1 starts to look very tempting. These levels show value in this circumstance but I think the lines is held back little.
It may not be showing value as bait, but may be a play.
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I just jumped on the +9.5 for 5 units.Comment -
BC +351 was hanging out there and I saw +10.5 only briefly.
I tried to get into +10.5 but couldn't get the bet down.
Now the market is closer, back to Under 200 and +5.5.
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I feel your pain on the ML. Down to +170 and missed it at ~+375. I went to place my wager at OV 38.5 and it went offline. Not touching 44.5 now.Comment
