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Anyone take Ottawa under 11.5 wins?
They are now 1-5-1 on the season. 1 more loss or tie for Ottawa means this future wins!Comment -
Well there we go, the signals were solid and the Total came in at 45 points, killing the 10 point tease. This may not have been a huge earn while you learn week, but I’m happy with the way some principles I was highlighting beforehand played out. A lot can be gathered from the last couple of days of posts.
BC played a good game, but I think everyone will agree the story on the field is how it wasn’t Saskatchewan. In 10 drives, they punted 7 times and had 3 turnovers. Once again the market situation plays itself out on the field.
But if you were late to the party, trying to get a piece of “Not Saskatchewan” or the UNDER in the second half, it didn’t work out so well. The final 2 point conversion for Saskatchewan’s 15 point run during the last 3 minutes of the game served to push the 2nd half Total bet and give Saskatchewan -1 the 2nd half cover.
It’s not what they bring…
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Tha fukk did you guys do to this guy at the IFBC?
He's all fukked up in the head if he thinks he can play 3 downs on a field bigger than A&M's
He must have gotten his hands on the premium Ganga down in CR
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Great, another one from TSN where I get the commercial, then a message saying I can't view it in my region.
I used to be able to see these vids, I thought.
Saw the story, if he couldn't do Cleveland, he has no chance in Hamilton.
He says he might coach someday.
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I think Ottawa will have a really tough time putting up points vs. ESKIMOS.
OTTAWA struggles seem to be getting worse, not better.
Late game loses yes.
But the Red Blacks are simply making too many mistakes on offense during the game.
The Eskimos won't need to score much to wrap this one up.
That being said, if Ottawa doesn't score 26+.....the under 55.5 seems like the play hereComment -
I would love to see Johnny FBall in CFL. I'm not 100% sure he'd immediately be a starter.
Good QBs at moment. He could go to HAM and challenge Collaros.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
First of all let me apologize for last weeks horrible over call in SK/BC.
At first I wanted to do a small play on Ottawa +3, but now they are favourites wtf. I think this line is a trap. Eventually Ottawa will win a close game, and Edmonton will lose a close game. Plus way too many injuries for Edmonton.
I agree woth jay. Ottawa is too inconsistent, and Edmonton has way too many offensive injuries. I like under 55.5 on a small lean.Comment -
Up to 56.5 at most books now.Comment -
The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning 30 or 31 points to Ottawa’s 24 or 25 points.
The stacking forecast has Edmonton winning with 32 or 33 points to Ottawa’s 23 or 24 points. Unsophisticated methods of comparing the teams give Edmonton as much as a 6 point edge with 57 or 58 points but the public gauge shows Edmonton winning by 1 point in a 55 point game.
In my opinion, the Total is pretty sharp here, sidelining the sharp forecast, and sits slightly under some of the public numbers, drawing that public support as Edmonton has paid 5 consecutive over bets. This is countered by influential money that sought the UNDER in the pregame spread from last Friday, failed, and likely seeks the a little bit of the same.
The point spread opened a little low here as the books sought to compensate for a market seeking both an Edmonton loss as well as an Ottawa win. The sharp forecast and stacking forecast point to the favorite against the spread but the line has moved away from the predictions.
The public tickets (not the gauge) shows to be on Edmonton, of course, but the line drop from -2.5 to -2 shouldn’t be characterized as classic reverse line movement as it applies to the point spread. It’s less likely that a lot of “sharp action” hit the +2.5 but rather that the books were taking different types of action on the upset moneyline.
This is the first game of the week and money will be steered. Last week we saw some minor market indicators come to fruition and some minor settlement immediately occur. After such settlement, and with a little regret with not having the UNDER in last week’s final game, I am passing on any bold plays here.
Ottawa very well could get the win tonight, it’s that type of market, but there’s not enough for me to counter the sharp forecast.
With some influential bettors sidelined and the public sold on the Over, the UNDER play has some merit here. The Totals market has shown other indicators of a turn from the recent shakeout and an Under here would go in line with that thinking. Like I said, some influential money is hitting the UNDER, and its one reason the line has had trouble holding at 56, pulling back to 55.5. That money is sharp for a reason and should be taken into consideration.
I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on the UNDER, coming on to a pass from the sharp forecast, and one reason is the generation of both Over and Under activity on this Total, while still sitting right at the sharp forecast. This condition throws a negative factor into the decision making ratings, and sheds light into some of the environmental factors I often mention.
I think, for both the side and Total, it’s best to watch this one and see where the chips fall.
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This is meant to reflect a line change from Edmonton favored by 2.5 to Ottawa being favored by 2 points. Again, this more likely the result of moneyline wagers but I failed to mention a steam factor involved. This represents only the 2nd time this season that line has traded across the pick, with an opening favorite.
There are two other instances this season where teams traded as both favorites and underdogs, but in those instances the opener was a pick 'em.
One of the reasons I pass here is that the type of market I refer to above gets muddled a bit with the favorite crossing the pick by so much.
In the earlier instance this season, Toronto went from a 1.5 favorite to 1.5 underdog against BC in Week 2.
This game shows a much larger move and also signifies another cycle of money flow, turning the markets attention to the wild line moves.
Yet another reason to pass on an Ottawa play this game.
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Great analysis KVB. Like I said, this is a small lean for me based on injuries on Edmontons OComment -
I do think this is the market's way of giving the bettor the Ottawa win here. With injuries eventually catching up and Ottawa getting the benefit of the movement it sure does point their direction.
It's very difficult to justify the current Ottawa moneyline with numbers, the player is getting shorted, but the market demands it. Sometimes you have to pay for the winning play, and this could be one of those times.
Actually, it went from BC favored to Toronto being favored, and the result was BC winning and covering, opposite the line movement.
Look for Ottawa to benefit from the movement this time around.
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This is the second Edmonton game in a row where the line has moved 4 points, against Edmonton. The effects of injuries may getting built in a little here, but don't count on it. With the lack of public announcements directly correlating to movement, you can bet that the book is exploiting something here with the moves, even if it is the lack of announcements.
Edmonton is a solid group with or without the injuries, it just may be Ottawa's time.
These two Edmonton games are the only games this season to have 4 point line movements and it doesn't happen often.
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Ya for sure, I waited to hope for an Ottawa +3.0 instead of +2.5, but they have now turned to favourites!This is the second Edmonton game in a row where the line has moved 4 points, against Edmonton. The effects of injuries may getting built in a little here, but don't count on it. With the lack of public announcements directly correlating to movement, you can bet that the book is exploiting something here with the moves, even if it is the lack of announcements.
Edmonton is a solid group with or without the injuries, it just may be Ottawa's time.
These two Edmonton games are the only games this season to have 4 point line movements and it doesn't happen often.
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Was listening to radio. Announcers said that EDM has 15 starters (who have 1+ start) out!
Is that right? Either way, EDM w/ a ton of injuries.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
That influential money strikes again. Readers know to pay attention when I talk about sharp or market moving money hitting somewhere.
It seems a couple of metrics on the last two games have taken me off of countering the sharp forecast Over prediction. Those margins have been narrow, and just missing a bold play, but the analysis has pointed that out each time.
Also, just as we saw one upset then the next underdog cover after the thread pointed out the market turn following the "favorite shakeout," we've seen two consecutive Unders after the thread pointed out the turn following the "Over shakeout."
This confirms the market turn and now we await the next "stacking" of money and betting philosophies.
Hopefully we can get a few winning bold plays out of the next Act.
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It looks like Toronto QB Ricky Ray is out this week. As far as I know, only the Greek has hung a line for the game tomorrow.
I see Montreal -7 with a Total of 47. That's the lowest Total of the season offered so far and happens to be the same score that we just saw today.
This could be a tricky one to forecast and deem bet worthy.Comment -
I got the worst line possible and still hit it....... with the under 55.5!
Ottawa is a huge disappointment this year.
Now they will start winning & then run flat come playoffs.Comment -
Joke defense.
Trevor Harris is Trevor Harris. The guy will make throws in the first half, but when his team needs a key first down late in the game, he will get you a 2 and out. He really is another version of Kevin Glenn. Stats look great for him, but he doesn't have the winning touch.Comment -
The sharp forecast has Montreal winning with 33 or 34 points to Toronto’s 23 or 24 points.
The stacking forecast shows Montreal winning 30 to the same 23 or 24 points for Toronto. Some non-predictive but commonly used basic numbers will result in a closer game with scores in the mid 40’s. The public gauge gives Montreal an about an 8 point win with about 42 points.
Obvious the big news here is the injury to the Toronto QB. I don’t talk much about players but the forecast has been adjusted. The truth is the adjustment may not be the significant when we talk about the long term forecast and noise created within the markets.
The spread opened at 7 and has been trading towards and at the sharp forecast while the Total has been between the forecast and the public numbers. The Total is the lowest offered this season and I can see why there is pressure on the Over from a couple of different viewpoints, including the sharp and stacking forecasts. By the same token, there are Under buyers, not quite like yesterday, that may still be looking for an Under here. Tickets still seem to want to hit the Over and the movement from the lows of 46.5 through 47 make are in line with this expectation.
After moving upward, toward the forecast, the spread has been dropping a little, away from the sharp forecast but in line with some of the other numbers.
In my opinion, despite the 3 point or so initial movement, these lines are fairly sharp in that they accomplish what the bookmakers may want by splitting bets on both the side and Total between bettors. Money is still flowing and not much can be determined for this game.
With a half point discrepancy the sharp forecast, with an offered line of -8.5, is calling for the favorite and this is in line with other metrics indicating it may be Montreal to cover here.
In fact, with the injury, numbers, and metrics I would not be surprised to see Toronto win this game. The contrarian in me does see an opportunity to counter the betting public but once again the metrics, along with the injury just slightly pull me off of the bet.
I’m passing tonight and letting the forecast stand on its own with a favorite winner and the Over. Because of the give and take markets and the structure and bets I see on each side of tonight’s game, it is likely the favorite or the Over will come in, but not both.
From a market analyst perspective, it is nearly impossible to determine which one will come but judging by the sharp forecast, the OVER is a much more likely scenario.
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thanks for the write up KVB.
From my point of view, its Montreal or nothing but will pass on this. Montreal is off a bye, so they might be rusty to start the game on offense. I cannot trust Toronto's offense lead by Matthews against a Montreal D that blitzes a lot; one of the most in the CFL.Comment -
That's one reason I'm not pressing the forecast Over with this low line, a strong defensive game plan might come out of Montreal and the pressure could be the story of the night. Then again, Toronto is not a bad squad by themselves, so maybe we get a game.
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Winnipeg @ Hamilton
Yes Winnipeg is not as good as their record, but for me it comes down to coaching. Hamilton is putting in a new DC, and a new guy (June Jones) will call the offensive plays. I expect a very passive game play on the Hamilton D.
I like Winnipeg -2.5, and a small bet on the over for this game.Comment
