The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

Winnipeg has only played three games so the sharpest forecast I can make gives British Columbia the win with 30 points to Winnipeg’s 28 points...

...If all else fails, just follow the forecast. If Winnipeg goes up early and then loses the game, but covers the spread, you’ll know what happened…lol.

It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it...

Against the line, the forecast was calling for the favorite to win but the underdog to cover in an Over.

Winnipeg led 42-17 in the fourth and with less than a minute to go BC completed the comeback and kicked the winning field goal.

The favorite won, the underdog covered, and the game went Over.

[KVB]

It goes back to what I was posting about with basketball.

"It should be such and such team, but..."

...It sure looks like its Winnipeg’s time and it’s being handed to us on a silver platter. I’m not sold here. I speculate that it’s the last ditch effort for the market to absorb upset moneyline bets before paying a 10 point underdog tomorrow with Saskatchewan and Calgary...

Serious, market moving, and yes Chucky, sharp money was ready to cut into that dinner on a silver platter tonight, but then the moneyline was snatched from their jaws.

...I have strong indications and had them since before the line came out that this game would be the underdog covering the spread. These metrics will be followed by strong market moving money...

Like I said, if I indicate smart money is going a direction, it’s wise to pay attention. That smart money on the Winnipeg spread did get paid, but the upset was a bit too greedy.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Kv, just posting my opinion. I've seen a lot of CFL line-moves that don't make sense.

In this game, the key info was BC qb Jennings sitting out. Lulay is surely one of the top 1 or 2 backup QBs in league, so displacement wasn't too much. If the betting mkt was in love w/ Winnipeg, feel like the line would have dipped more toward 3.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Winnipeg an ok team, have had couple close losses. If they fare ok vs Eastern teams, think they get to 8-10 and steal Eastern 3-seed.

[KVB]

Kv, just posting my opinion. I've seen a lot of CFL line-moves that don't make sense.

In this game, the key info was BC qb Jennings sitting out. Lulay is surely one of the top 1 or 2 backup QBs in league, so displacement wasn't too much. If the betting mkt was in love w/ Winnipeg, feel like the line would have dipped more toward 3.

It's all good Chucky, I was just letting you know I was reading your posts, and seeing if you were reading mine...

Seriously though, hopefully my posts help make sense of some of those movements. One of the main goals is to gain an understanding of why the market opens where it does and moves to where it closes.

...Re: CFL opening lines + line-movements...

...Lines move, but not necessarily on sharp action.

I’ve been using a lot more words to say the same thing you did...

For tonight’s game remember that the line moved from as high as -8.5 all the way down to -4. That’s about as big a move as it’s going to get.

A move to 3 late may have triggered steam action that the books clearly would have wanted to mitigate.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I saw the 8.5. Thought that was a phantom line. I now see that 8.5 was real. So, yeah, I guess the mkt did react to that Jennings info. My bad, on that one.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

FWIW, I wish I would have seen the early +8.5.

[KVB]

Saskatchewan has only played three games so far so the sharpest forecast I can make has Saskatchewan winning with 40 or more points to Calgary’s 24 points.

The stacking forecast shows Calgary winning with 33 or 34 points to Saskatch’s 20 points. The public gauge and some unsophisticated numbers give Calgary 33 points as well but tend to give Saskatchewan a few more points. If you’re looking for a total on the public gauge it’s about 55 points.

We’ve got a major split in the numbers here and the sharp forecast has been successful 5 times in a row against the moneyline, and has lost one against the spread that traded as a push until game time close. The Totals for the forecast have alternating wins and losses.

The spread has moved toward the forecast, despite the stacking and public numbers. There is a good portion of public betting, that sees an underdog league with a huge spread and is buying as well. The Total opened between the numbers and has moved away from the sharp forecast.

I’m not going quote my above posts extensively because I’ve already placed a bet. I mentioned before the first game that I had an idea of how the money would flow. After seeing how they’ve brought the action I’ve predicted, I’ve gone in line with that thinking and have picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +10 (-105) and +350 over Calgary Stampeders.

For trading purposes similar to last time, I have also picked up Saskatchewan +10 (-110) over Calgary. I’ll explain the multiple entry points in a later post about tracking.

This line is moving and getting costly so I can’t write much more, hopefully if a bettor is following, he or she would have already picked up this play as it was mentioned yesterday.

This upset is fine at +330, +340, etc, as I see it is dropping. If I was entering multiple moneylines, I would buy at +330.

I would consider +10 (-120) but it’s almost better to take +9.5 at reduced vig. I rarely pay -120 for a spread.

Good Luck.

[Jayvegas420]

The total in tonight's game has seen the most movement.
Opened at 58.5.
I loved the under until I saw this.
I feel like I missed the line we needed.


Nice to see our 1st BOLD picks in the thread

[KVB]

I hope this bold play hits. For tracking, I'll probably pull the bold plays from the early season thread as well there was a good day and then a loss there. Hopefully that loss on Hamilton from week 4 comes back to us tonight.

Actually, I think that Hamilton loss may be a bold play early in this thread. They'll get tracked either way.

One problem with tonight is that when trying to hide an upset, sometimes it's not best to have it be the game where the sharp forecast shows such a big discrepancy. I suppose if the forecast has hit 5 in a row (increasing some of that streak breaking pressure) and the last time it lost against the moneyline was a Calgary game, we may have chance.

Let's see if we can get some give and take on that level...specifically in regards to Calgary and the forecast performance.

[Jayvegas420]

You're right. Hamilton over BC.
I am gonna parlay this game with a UFC fight I have had my eye on.

[KVB]

The total in tonight's game has seen the most movement.
Opened at 58.5.
I loved the under until I saw this.
I feel like I missed the line we needed...

That Under was a tough one but I think you are right on about missing the line.

I don't fully trust the forecast (OVER) as far as Totals at this point, but I can see where there is pressure on the Under, both in the numbers and by some slightly emboldened streak breakers. I wouldn't be surprised if it went Over or landed somewhere in the middle.

[KVB]

You're right. Hamilton over BC.
I am gonna parlay this game with a UFC fight I have had my eye on.

It's Saskatch over Calgary but I made the same mistakes all week. I kept typing Hamilton/BC for the Hamilton/Edmonton game, and the same for the Winnipeg/BC game.


We need more teams, it's driving me nuts...

[RudyRuetigger]

sure bro

solid thread

who wouldn't want to take advice from a guy living off of $7 per day

sign me up for the super system

[KVB]

sure bro

solid thread

who wouldn't want to take advice from a guy living off of $7 per day

sign me up for the super system

It's war Rudy and the bullets are flying. There may have been a gameplan, but there is no super system. There's a sharp forecast, a lot information and how you use them both.

If you do any handicapping, use the analysis alongside your work to hopefully pick up few more winners or take you off of some losers.

We're calling scores and predicting how games are played in here using the evidence given, it may be too much for you.

[RudyRuetigger]

It's war Rudy and the bullets are flying. There may have been a gameplan, but there is no super system. There's a sharp forecast, a lot information and how you use them both.

If you do any handicapping, use the analysis alongside your work to hopefully pick up few more winners or take you off of some losers.

We're calling scores and predicting how games are played in here using the evidence given, it may be too much for you.

yea, you guys are clearly doing solid work in here bro

please teach me the yards per game again...i had no idea that the worse defense you played the more yards you would expect to gain

do you come up with this on your own??

[KVB]

...please teach me the yards per game again...i had no idea that the worse defense you played the more yards you would expect to gain

do you come up with this on your own??

I have no idea what you're talking about. I never wrote anything of the sort, ever, in any post or thread in all of posting.

Looks like Rudy made the list as another poster who doesn't read before posting.

Good Luck kiddo but no need to post bullshit, no need to compromise your integrity like that.

[RudyRuetigger]

I have no idea what you're talking about. I never wrote anything of the sort, ever, in any post or thread in all of posting.

Looks like Rudy made the list as another poster who doesn't read before posting.

Good Luck kiddo but no need to post bullshit, no need to compromise your integrity like that.

what do you want to bet that you have

[RudyRuetigger]

this is what i love

throwing shit on the wall and seeing what sticks

what do you want to fukkin bet

[Otters27]

On the stampeders ML tonight

[RudyRuetigger]

I have no idea what you're talking about. I never wrote anything of the sort, ever, in any post or thread in all of posting.

Looks like Rudy made the list as another poster who doesn't read before posting.

Good Luck kiddo but no need to post bullshit, no need to compromise your integrity like that.

don't fukkin run

you can apologize or we can move forward

your move

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Rudy

pull the trigger and get it over with already


this has to be an act , nobody is this miserable

This is either an act or you are posting from a prison library

nobody is this angry in their personal life and makes it this long

without killing someone else and going to prison or offing themself by now

[KVB]

You don't read before posting Rudy. I won't waste anymore time with you.

You are wrong about what I've posted and the proof is that you won't be able to find anything like that. I've only posted about the use of means and medians and may have used yards and points as an example, but you probably didn't read all of that either.

As usual at SBR, you are wrong. I've noticed you like to use drinking as an excuse to be confused and wrong.

Take your attention seeking drama elsewhere, it interrupts the educational experience.

That's the last thing I'll say about it.

[RudyRuetigger]

Rudy

pull the trigger and get it over with already


this has to be an act , nobody is this miserable

This is either an act or you are posting from a prison library

nobody is this angry in their personal life and makes it this long

without killing someone else and going to prison or offing themself by now

very weird you act like death is some huge grieving thing 1 day and the next you tell someone to kill himself

[KVB]

Rudy

pull the trigger and get it over with already


this has to be an act , nobody is this miserable

This is either an act or you are posting from a prison library

nobody is this angry in their personal life and makes it this long

without killing someone else and going to prison or offing themself by now

[RudyRuetigger]

You don't read before posting Rudy. I won't waste anymore time with you.

You are wrong about what I've posted and the proof is that you won't be able to find anything like that. I've only posted about the use of means and medians and may have used yards and points as an example, but you probably didn't read all of that either.

As usual at SBR, you are wrong. I've noticed you like to use drinking as an excuse to be confused and wrong.

Take your attention seeking drama elsewhere, it interrupts the educational experience.

That's the last thing I'll say about it.

I win again


too easy with you sbr losers

[KVB]

[RudyRuetigger]

yea, you guys are clearly doing solid work in here bro

please teach me the yards per game again...i had no idea that the worse defense you played the more yards you would expect to gain

do you come up with this on your own??

I have no idea what you're talking about. I never wrote anything of the sort, ever, in any post or thread in all of posting.

Looks like Rudy made the list as another poster who doesn't read before posting.

Good Luck kiddo but no need to post bullshit, no need to compromise your integrity like that.

You don't read before posting Rudy. I won't waste anymore time with you.

You are wrong about what I've posted and the proof is that you won't be able to find anything like that. I've only posted about the use of means and medians and may have used yards and points as an example, but you probably didn't read all of that either.

As usual at SBR, you are wrong. I've noticed you like to use drinking as an excuse to be confused and wrong.

Take your attention seeking drama elsewhere, it interrupts the educational experience.

That's the last thing I'll say about it.

laughing face is a good come back when you know you are wrong


you and I both know I forgot more than all you have learned

[Jayvegas420]

Rudy's just busting balls, it's what we do here.
I'm heading to a free concert tonight and will not be watching games but I'll fukkin bet ya Ruder!
You pick it.....150 points.
I'd go all in with ya for $7 but I don't wanna go broke or break any rules.
What do you like in the CFL Rudy?

You wanna go against KVB & take Calgary -10????

[Fidel_CashFlow]

very weird you act like death is some huge grieving thing 1 day and the next you tell someone to kill himself

You view everything in this manner
no matter what someone says or does you could see the worst in it
you gotta be single , no way a woman would be around this person everyday
unless she's confined to a dark room with chains
Everything in life is a disastrous conspiracy to you and nothing is fun
or you don't have any originality so all you can do is spread diatribe
in hopes to get a bad reaction out of somebody or ruin their spirits
if even for a second , it's like a needle in your arm
Damn bro it's impossible not to respond to you anymore
you can't go 5 minutes or multiple posts without reverting back to hating
your own guts and someone elses

and death is "some huge grieving thing" but some people
gotta go before they explode and hurt somebody innocent
message board is a message board but the internal profile I'm seeing in you
is that of someone capable of letting their inner turmoil cross over into
the path of some innocent victim one day

You need a exorcism, like yesterday

[KVB]

To clear up for thread, the lesson was about means and medians not about levels of defense and offense.

That lesson was basic math and Rudy was confused about it then, that's why he remembers it.

I've never posted anything about a poor defense leading to anything for that team.

I laugh because Rudy buries himself, but I don't think being drunk is a valid excuse.

[RudyRuetigger]

You view everything in this manner
no matter what someone says or does you could see the worst in it
you gotta be single , no way a woman would be around this person everyday
unless she's confined to a dark room with chains
Everything in life is a disastrous conspiracy to you and nothing is fun
or you don't have any originality so all you can do is spread diatribe
in hopes to get a bad reaction out of somebody or ruin their spirits
if even for a second , it's like a needle in your arm
Damn bro it's impossible not to respond to you anymore
you can't go 5 minutes or multiple posts without reverting back to hating
your own guts and someone elses

and death is "some huge grieving thing" but some people
gotta go before they explode and hurt somebody innocent
message board is a message board but the internal profile I'm seeing in you
is that of someone capable of letting their inner turmoil cross over into
the path of some innocent victim one day

You need a exorcism, like yesterday

you a poet bro?

[RudyRuetigger]

To clear up for thread, the lesson was about means and medians not about levels of defense and offense.

That lesson was basic math and Rudy was confused about it then, that's why he remembers it.

I've never posted anything about a poor defense leading to anything for that team.

I laugh because Rudy buries himself, but I don't think being drunk is a valid excuse.

means and medians...in what roadways, not in offense and defense??

you know what this forum is about?

[RudyRuetigger]

Rudy's just busting balls, it's what we do here.
I'm heading to a free concert tonight and will not be watching games but I'll fukkin bet ya Ruder!
You pick it.....150 points.
I'd go all in with ya for $7 but I don't wanna go broke or break any rules.
What do you like in the CFL Rudy?

You wanna go against KVB & take Calgary -10????

very weird post, I was expecting something worse from you

[Jayvegas420]

C'mon rudy, we're running outta time!
Tatdy called my bluff last night and took 150 points from me. I need those points back.
Put down the bottle for 3 mins and let's make a bet!