The sharp forecast says Winnipeg wins with 40 or more points to Hamilton’s 36 points.
The stacking forecast gives Winnipeg 39 points to Hamilton’s 17 points. Unsophisticated numbers produce a blowout, for the most part, by Winnipeg in a high scoring game but the public gauge has Winnipeg winning 36-31.
The Total opened between the numbers, close to the stacking forecast. I’ve often said the stacking forecast is better about being on the market Total than the others. Despite appearing low, this Total has the bets fairly split between analysts and bettors.
I have indications that we may see an Over here as recent streak breaking bettors that have been emboldened with Under plays as the market turned from the shakeout give a little back. For those bettors, the money may be a little higher, but their desire has waned a little.
The spread obviously opened low and has many suspicious, including me. Winnipeg’s raw score in the sharp forecast is actually closer to 50 but translating those scores leaves us with the “40 or more” prediction. So when I say “40 or more to 36,” it is pushing more than a 4 point victory for Winnipeg.
The low line is reflective of the market thirst for that first Hamilton win; along with intentions by the originators. We saw a similar situation in the first game this week between Edmonton and Ottawa, less the movement across the pick.
When looking at the ratings, Winnipeg is looking at one of the highest raw ratings of the season. Further, when watching the ratings in relation to predicting team performance, we tend to see extreme ratings pose a negative indication. The best teams “regress to a mean” while the worst teams do the same.
The sharp forecast has fared well against the moneyline this season and the most recent successfully predicted upset was with Winnipeg, again at the point of the market turn after the shakeout.
Last night it was the favorite and the Under and tonight I assert the same premise. This time, because of the sharp forecast, I expect to see the favorite or the Over, but not both. Also, this time, we have metrics leading to conclusions and not the toss-up we had yesterday.
Metrics indicating the upset and the low line in the market have directed me to pick up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 (-103) and +115 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
After taking many bets on Hamilton this season for many reasons, and offering higher plus odds all season so far, the books can now pay a very low number at +115 for the Hamilton backers. Further, the way Winnipeg has been clutch with getting moneyline wins for their bettors and that security, history shows, will work against them here. That’s part of how they bring it.
Also, while countering the sharp forecast on the spread and moneyline, I am pressing the forecast on the Total with a well-priced OVER 59 (-101) for Winnipeg versus Hamilton.
Good Luck.
The stacking forecast gives Winnipeg 39 points to Hamilton’s 17 points. Unsophisticated numbers produce a blowout, for the most part, by Winnipeg in a high scoring game but the public gauge has Winnipeg winning 36-31.
The Total opened between the numbers, close to the stacking forecast. I’ve often said the stacking forecast is better about being on the market Total than the others. Despite appearing low, this Total has the bets fairly split between analysts and bettors.
I have indications that we may see an Over here as recent streak breaking bettors that have been emboldened with Under plays as the market turned from the shakeout give a little back. For those bettors, the money may be a little higher, but their desire has waned a little.
The spread obviously opened low and has many suspicious, including me. Winnipeg’s raw score in the sharp forecast is actually closer to 50 but translating those scores leaves us with the “40 or more” prediction. So when I say “40 or more to 36,” it is pushing more than a 4 point victory for Winnipeg.
The low line is reflective of the market thirst for that first Hamilton win; along with intentions by the originators. We saw a similar situation in the first game this week between Edmonton and Ottawa, less the movement across the pick.
When looking at the ratings, Winnipeg is looking at one of the highest raw ratings of the season. Further, when watching the ratings in relation to predicting team performance, we tend to see extreme ratings pose a negative indication. The best teams “regress to a mean” while the worst teams do the same.
The sharp forecast has fared well against the moneyline this season and the most recent successfully predicted upset was with Winnipeg, again at the point of the market turn after the shakeout.
Last night it was the favorite and the Under and tonight I assert the same premise. This time, because of the sharp forecast, I expect to see the favorite or the Over, but not both. Also, this time, we have metrics leading to conclusions and not the toss-up we had yesterday.
Metrics indicating the upset and the low line in the market have directed me to pick up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 (-103) and +115 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
After taking many bets on Hamilton this season for many reasons, and offering higher plus odds all season so far, the books can now pay a very low number at +115 for the Hamilton backers. Further, the way Winnipeg has been clutch with getting moneyline wins for their bettors and that security, history shows, will work against them here. That’s part of how they bring it.
Also, while countering the sharp forecast on the spread and moneyline, I am pressing the forecast on the Total with a well-priced OVER 59 (-101) for Winnipeg versus Hamilton.
Good Luck.
