When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

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  • Totolover1409
    SBR MVP
    • 06-14-08
    • 1400

    #631
    so is it too late to take the texans? the line is still at -3.
    Comment
    • McRich
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-26-07
      • 961

      #632
      I went 1-2-1 in my RLM plays on Wed. 1-1 in NCAABB and 0-2-1 in NBA.

      Overall record is 43-29-3.

      The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

      NBA 14-11-1
      NCAABB 18-11-1
      NCAAF 7-5-1
      NFL 4-3
      Comment
      • smitch124
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 05-19-08
        • 12566

        #633
        I think thats 1-3-1 McRich...here's to a better night tonight
        Comment
        • Dana4U
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-28-08
          • 375

          #634
          What website are you using to monitor the number of bets played? I am usings Sports.com to track the point movements, but it doesn't show the number of bets placed.
          Comment
          • LT Profits
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-27-06
            • 90963

            #635
            Originally posted by Dana4U
            What website are you using to monitor the number of bets played? I am usings Sports.com to track the point movements, but it doesn't show the number of bets placed.
            Comment
            • Dana4U
              SBR Sharp
              • 10-28-08
              • 375

              #636
              Thanks LT!

              I have a follow-up question. Is the RLM for a favored team the same as point increase on the underdog? For example, if the points were to move from -6 to -3 and 68% remained on this bet, this would be a good RLM bet to take the team with the 32%. Is the opposite of this bet also good? For example, +3 to +6 points with 25%? Would you take the team with 75%?

              Comment
              • McRich
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-26-07
                • 961

                #637
                I had my record from Wed. night wrong.
                Wed. record was 1-3-1 NBA 0-2-1 NCAABB 1-1

                Overall record is 43-30-3.

                The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

                NBA 14-11-1
                NCAABB 18-11-1
                NCAAF 7-5-1
                NFL 4-3
                Comment
                • McRich
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-26-07
                  • 961

                  #638
                  Originally posted by smitch124
                  I think thats 1-3-1 McRich...here's to a better night tonight
                  Thanks, I updated my record.
                  Comment
                  • McRich
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-26-07
                    • 961

                    #639
                    Originally posted by Dana4U
                    Thanks LT!

                    I have a follow-up question. Is the RLM for a favored team the same as point increase on the underdog? For example, if the points were to move from -6 to -3 and 68% remained on this bet, this would be a good RLM bet to take the team with the 32%. Is the opposite of this bet also good? For example, +3 to +6 points with 25%? Would you take the team with 75%?

                    If a team went from +3 to +6 and has 60% or more of the bets, then take team with the lower % of bets for RLM.
                    Comment
                    • Capybara
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 08-17-08
                      • 11803

                      #640
                      Worst RLM night EVER last night! 1-6!!! And I made bigger bets than usual too, Great. 0-3 in college hoops (I missed out on Creighton) and 1-3 in NBA. Fortunately, I had the extra half-point with the Hawks that I think you didn't have, McRich or I wouldn't even have gotten that one. Yikes, what an awful night. Gotta stick with it though.

                      You guys showing Troy tonight? That's all I see.
                      Comment
                      • McRich
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 10-26-07
                        • 961

                        #641
                        Originally posted by Capybara
                        Worst RLM night EVER last night! 1-6!!! And I made bigger bets than usual too, Great. 0-3 in college hoops (I missed out on Creighton) and 1-3 in NBA. Fortunately, I had the extra half-point with the Hawks that I think you didn't have, McRich or I wouldn't even have gotten that one. Yikes, what an awful night. Gotta stick with it though.

                        You guys showing Troy tonight? That's all I see.
                        I actually got the Hawks +6.5 locally, but not online. Too bad you kicked up the size of your wager on the worst night. I did not see Troy for me.
                        Comment
                        • GroverAlex
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 10-06-08
                          • 2

                          #642
                          LT, been followin threads and appreciate the knowledge. Is that twominutewarning site better than sports insights. and do u recommend any of the tools on insights.
                          Thanks
                          Comment
                          • Dana4U
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 10-28-08
                            • 375

                            #643
                            Thanks McRich!

                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #644
                              Originally posted by GroverAlex
                              LT, been followin threads and appreciate the knowledge. Is that twominutewarning site better than sports insights. and do u recommend any of the tools on insights.
                              Thanks
                              Bettracker IS powered by Sports Insights, so it is the same info on a slight delay.

                              I personally subscribe to Sports Insights just for their alerts alone, as I am always busy and don't always have the time to keep tracking percentages and line moves. For those of you that do have the time to do it yourself though, then the free delayed version may be all you need.
                              Comment
                              • apk2k6
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 06-09-08
                                • 494

                                #645


                                Is also powered by Sports Insights, it's what I use.
                                Comment
                                • McRich
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-26-07
                                  • 961

                                  #646
                                  I am wagering on Clippers +9, Pacers +6 and Wright State +8 for RLM plays.
                                  Comment
                                  • McRich
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 10-26-07
                                    • 961

                                    #647
                                    Golden State +1 RLM play tonight.
                                    Comment
                                    • McRich
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 10-26-07
                                      • 961

                                      #648
                                      Fri. RLM record was 3-1 NBA 2-1 NCAABB 1-0.

                                      Overall record is 46-31-3.

                                      The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

                                      NBA 16-12-1
                                      NCAABB 19-11-1
                                      NCAAF 7-5-1
                                      NFL 4-3
                                      Comment
                                      • FreeFall
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-20-08
                                        • 3365

                                        #649
                                        Rams are looking to become a RLM play.

                                        texans if you wanna do half points
                                        Comment
                                        • McRich
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 10-26-07
                                          • 961

                                          #650
                                          Originally posted by FreeFall
                                          Rams are looking to become a RLM play.

                                          texans if you wanna do half points
                                          Yeah, I made an early wager on the Rams at +2.5. The live odds on SBR for this game are interesting. Right now they range from Rams +3 to +1 depending on which book you use.

                                          I made my wager when Sports Insights showed the line movement from +3 to +1.

                                          I am waiting on the Texans game.
                                          Comment
                                          • McRich
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 10-26-07
                                            • 961

                                            #651
                                            Originally posted by Dana4U
                                            Thanks McRich!

                                            You are welcome.
                                            Comment
                                            • McRich
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 10-26-07
                                              • 961

                                              #652
                                              I am wagering on Utah +13 and Georgia St. +5 in NCAABB RLM plays today.
                                              Comment
                                              • SexyMit
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 10-12-06
                                                • 6139

                                                #653
                                                Yeah I already hit Georgia St.... Harvard, and Atlanta Hawks on NBA tonight. There are quite a few RLM today...
                                                If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                                I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                                Comment
                                                • Capybara
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-17-08
                                                  • 11803

                                                  #654
                                                  Happy Saturday afternoon, RLMers! Yup, I'm on Harvard +10, Georgia State +5.5, and Utah +12 for some afternoon college hoops action! Let's get 'em!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • McRich
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 10-26-07
                                                    • 961

                                                    #655
                                                    I am wagering on Wisconsin Green Bay +10.5 and Atlanta Hawks +4.5 for RLM plays.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • McRich
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 10-26-07
                                                      • 961

                                                      #656
                                                      Originally posted by Capybara
                                                      Happy Saturday afternoon, RLMers! Yup, I'm on Harvard +10, Georgia State +5.5, and Utah +12 for some afternoon college hoops action! Let's get 'em!!
                                                      Let's cash some today. I was out and missed Harvard.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • McRich
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 10-26-07
                                                        • 961

                                                        #657
                                                        I am wagering on Oregon St. +7 for a RLM play.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • roasthawg
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-09-07
                                                          • 2990

                                                          #658
                                                          Originally posted by McRich
                                                          Let's cash some today. I was out and missed Harvard.
                                                          Harvard is a team I'd be warrey of when it comes to rlm. That student body/alumni base has a lot of money to wager on games...they can easily move lines without their bets being "smart" in the least bit.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Robust
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-13-08
                                                            • 3254

                                                            #659
                                                            Originally posted by roasthawg
                                                            Harvard is a team I'd be warrey of when it comes to rlm. That student body/alumni base has a lot of money to wager on games...they can easily move lines without their bets being "smart" in the least bit.
                                                            agreed! be careful...

                                                            Robust
                                                            Comment
                                                            • McRich
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 10-26-07
                                                              • 961

                                                              #660
                                                              Sat. RLM record was 2-2-1 NBA 1-0 NCAABB 1-2-1.

                                                              Overall record is 48-33-4.

                                                              The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

                                                              NBA 17-12-1
                                                              NCAABB 20-13-2
                                                              NCAAF 7-5-1
                                                              NFL 4-3
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ClayBalls
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 12-14-08
                                                                • 28

                                                                #661
                                                                I made my own thread, but thought the people that read this one might help:

                                                                I'm kind of new at his and have lost some money going with what the general public thinks which usually matches with what I think.
                                                                So tell me if I may be on the right track:

                                                                From http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

                                                                Jacksonville with only 15% of bets but no line movement
                                                                Oakland with only 13% but no line movement
                                                                Minnesota with only 16% but no movement
                                                                Cleveland with 30% with no movement

                                                                Every one of these teams I would instinctively bet against, but maybe that is why I always end up pissed. Thoughts?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Robust
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 09-13-08
                                                                  • 3254

                                                                  #662
                                                                  non-rlm, non-follow the money.. not for this thread..

                                                                  I posted my thoughts in your thread..

                                                                  Good luck!

                                                                  Robust
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • McRich
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 10-26-07
                                                                    • 961

                                                                    #663
                                                                    Sun. RLM plays Rams +2.5 and Arizona +6 in NCAABB.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Capybara
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 08-17-08
                                                                      • 11803

                                                                      #664
                                                                      Originally posted by McRich
                                                                      Sun. RLM plays Rams +2.5 and Arizona +6 in NCAABB.
                                                                      My RLM plays today are/were Rams +2.5 and Texans +3 (that one was a half-point move, but 3.5 to 3 in NFL being a big one).

                                                                      McRich, Arizona (CBB) opened at +6.5. I thought you weren't doing half-point moves.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • McRich
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 10-26-07
                                                                        • 961

                                                                        #665
                                                                        Originally posted by Capybara
                                                                        My RLM plays today are/were Rams +2.5 and Texans +3 (that one was a half-point move, but 3.5 to 3 in NFL being a big one).

                                                                        McRich, Arizona (CBB) opened at +6.5. I thought you weren't doing half-point moves.
                                                                        I saw Arizona move to a full point move today, that is why I went with it.
                                                                        Comment
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