When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[LT Profits]

McRich, in your scenario the line move matched the money so there is no sharp play or square side por se.

[McRich]

McRich, in your scenario the line move matched the money so there is no sharp play or square side por se.

Yeah, I thought that after I posted. Thanks for confirming. OK, I still need help on the reverse line movement.

LT, using

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

numbers right now as if the games were going to be played today with over 10,000 bets, what are the "Holy Grail" games to bet on. I am sorry I am struggling with this concept. Thanks for the feedback.

[yisman]

i can name 10000 games that people pounded before kickoff or first pitch and the fav lost. happens all the time
money movement doesnt affect games, unless you think games are fixed, then dont bet

It's about looking at line movement and what the public is on. This stuff works, man.

McRich, there isn't always a square/sharp play. I see LT beat me to explaining that, though.

[smitch124]

Do you ever cheat on the # of bets when a 1 point move has been made. Lets say you're getting a total of a 1 point move across the board and show 8500 bets made on the game, do you wait?

LT, did you see this question?

[LT Profits]

LT, did you see this question?

The only time I "cheat" is if I get an alert from SI. Aside from that though, better to wait because betting TOO early could backfire as movement could still turn around.

[Dark Horse]

Just adding that not all line movements are significant. Pinny, for instance, happily jumps from 7.5 to 9 or 9.5 as protection against teasers.

[LT Profits]

Just adding that not all line movements are significant. Pinny, for instance, happily jumps from 7.5 to 9 or 9.5 as protection against teasers.

Excellent point, except you mean 7 to 9.

Pinny avoids lines of 7.5, 8 and 8.5 like the plague.

[LT Profits]

Also it should be obvious from the juice that a move is not significant, i.e., +7 -104 to +9 -128

[Dark Horse]

I did mean that.

Getting late.

[Dark Horse]

SBR Odds often has interesting info inside the Sunday opening lines for the NFL. Watch how the line settles when Pinny is off from Greek or CRIS. Last week Pinny had +6 for two games, with the others coming in at -3. The line eventually settled at 3, but the Pinnacle lean was a winner for both games.

Nothing this week.

[durito]

SBR Odds often has interesting info inside the Sunday opening lines for the NFL. Watch how the line settles when Pinny is off from Greek or CRIS. Last week Pinny had +6 for two games, with the others coming in at -3. The line eventually settled at 3, but the Pinnacle lean was a winner for both games.

Nothing this week.

thats bad data

NFL speads dont differ by 3 pts between pinny/cris/greek ever

[Dark Horse]

Pinnacle line was out much earlier. And went from +6 to +5 to +4, all with time stamps. Are you saying that's all made up? That would be some very bad data.

[LT Profits]

Yes it was a bad feed Dark Horse. Look at the Pinny line history on those games and sbrlines show +6, then +3 like one minute later. Treat the +3 as the true opener.

[LT Profits]

Pinnacle line was out much earlier. And went from +6 to +5 to +4, all with time stamps. Are you saying that's all made up? That would be some very bad data.

Oh ok that seems valid, but I have also seen cases like I just stated above.

[Dark Horse]

No, I was watching two line battles between Pinny and Greek. Very interesting. I wouldn't go with a quick 3 pt jump.

[Dark Horse]

This is from the NO@CAR game. I added the arrows to show the sequence.

Pinnacle
10/12 06:27PM: +6 -104 / -6 -104 <= 1
10/12 06:28PM: +5 -104 / -5 -104 <= 2
10/12 08:38PM: +4 -118 / -4 +110 <= 7
10/12 08:39PM: +4 -122 / -4 +114 <= 8
10/12 08:40PM: +4 -124 / -4 +116 <= 9
10/12 08:42PM: +3½ -118 / -3½ +110 <= 10
10/12 08:48PM: +3½ -120 / -3½ +112 <= 11
10/12 09:27PM: +3½ -118 / -3½ +110 <= 12

Greek
10/12 08:14PM: +3 -105 / -3 -115 <= 3
10/12 08:15PM: +3 -120 / -3 +100 <= 4
10/12 08:19PM: +3 -105 / -3 -115 <= 5


CRIS
10/12 08:34PM: +3 -110 / -3 -110 <= 6
10/12 08:48PM: +3 -105 / -3 -115 <= 11
10/12 09:49PM: +3 -110 / -3 -110 <= 13
10/12 10:29PM: +3 +100 / -3 -120 <= 14

[Dark Horse]

Assuming that none of this is dirty data...

Pinnacle, with Computer Group bloodlines, doesn't mind taking a bet. And they can, apparently, be flexible early on in the 6 to 3 pt range.

CRIS, where the line does NOT originate, seems the most averse to gambling.

Would be interesting to know who gets first crack at those lines for each book, and at what limits. If I remember correctly, Bill Dozer mentioned that Greek offers them first to some Asian folks.

[McRich]

Yeah, I thought that after I posted. Thanks for confirming. OK, I still need help on the reverse line movement.

LT, using

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

numbers right now as if the games were going to be played today with over 10,000 bets, what are the "Holy Grail" games to bet on. I am sorry I am struggling with this concept. Thanks for the feedback.

Hey LT, did you see this post? I was wondering if you could answer this question. Thanks.

[Sforz]

Hey LT, did you see this post? I was wondering if you could answer this question. Thanks.

Panthers and Bengals

[LT Profits]

Hey LT, did you see this post? I was wondering if you could answer this question. Thanks.

Sforz meant CARDINALS and Bengals.

Keep in mind though that these two reverse moves are just a half-point to this point. If either move again at Pinny, try to find a slow moving book and pounce.

[McRich]

Panthers and Bengals

Thanks.

[McRich]

Sforz meant CARDINALS and Bengals.

Keep in mind though that these two reverse moves are just a half-point to this point. If either move again at Pinny, try to find a slow moving book and pounce.

OK, so in this game, the Cardinals have 30% of the bets and the line opened at +4.5 and moved to +4, which would be an attractive bet for a sharp if the number closed this way.

If I understand this, there is a college game tonight. New Mexico vs. Air Force. New Mexico opened at +5.5. New Mexico has 38% of the bets. The line is now New Mexico +5. If the line stayed at +5, then the sharp bet would be New Mexico.

Please advise. Thanks for all of the feedback. I find this information very interesting and useful.

[McRich]

OK, so in this game, the Cardinals have 30% of the bets and the line opened at +4.5 and moved to +4, which would be an attractive bet for a sharp if the number closed this way.

If I understand this, there is a college game tonight. New Mexico vs. Air Force. New Mexico opened at +5.5. New Mexico has 38% of the bets. The line is now New Mexico +5. If the line stayed at +5, then the sharp bet would be New Mexico.

Please advise. Thanks for all of the feedback. I find this information very interesting and useful.

I looked at the New Mexico/Air Force game again. My first post is wrong. The line moved towards Air Force, not New Mexico, therefore this game does not favor a reverse line movement.

[LT Profits]

I looked at the New Mexico/Air Force game again. My first post is wrong. The line moved towards Air Force, not New Mexico, therefore this game does not favor a reverse line movement.

No you were right the first time.

Air Force opened at -5.5, yet the line dropped to -5 despite 62% of the action being on them.

[McRich]

No you were right the first time.

Air Force opened at -5.5, yet the line dropped to -5 despite 62% of the action being on them.

I am a slow learner. So in the NFL game between the Cardinals and Panthers, you suggest the Panthers as the pick because they opened at -4.5, are now at -4, yet they have 70% of the bets.

OK, let me try another RLM pick on my own and see if I get this strategy.

I would pick Northwestern instead of Indiana because NW opened at -9.5, and if they closed at their current -8.0 with 84% of the bets, the NW looks like a very strong play.

Let me know if NW is the sharp pick. Thanks again.

[Robust]

I am a slow learner. So in the NFL game between the Cardinals and Panthers, you suggest the Panthers as the pick because they opened at -4.5, are now at -4, yet they have 70% of the bets.

OK, let me try another RLM pick on my own and see if I get this strategy.

I would pick Northwestern instead of Indiana because NW opened at -9.5, and if they closed at their current -8.0 with 84% of the bets, the NW looks like a very strong play.

Let me know if NW is the sharp pick. Thanks again.

Arizona and Indiana are the plays from the last time i looked at the lines.. both RLM..

and if you like College, look at Iowa St, Florida and Michigan (not mich state, but they are playing each other)

Robust

[McRich]

Arizona and Indiana are the plays from the last time i looked at the lines.. both RLM..

and if you like College, look at Iowa St, Florida and Michigan (not mich state, but they are playing each other)

Robust

Why are the Cardinals the play? The Panthers number moved a 1/2 point to their advantage with 70% of the bets on the Panthers.

[Robust]

Why are the Cardinals the play? The Panthers number moved a 1/2 point to their advantage with 70% of the bets on the Panthers.

if the money is on carolina, then should they not have to cover MORE? -4.5 to -5??

but the opposite happened... they have to cover less (-4.5 to -4).. this is reverse line movement.. do not think about the +/- numbers.. think about what should happen when one team is getting the majority of the money.. this helps me out cuz i also mess it up every once in a while..

Robust

[DeluxeLiner]

What does Vegas know that we don't?

LT said (maybe in another thread) that West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast are 33% ATS. Carolina has also not looked too shabby this year.

[McRich]

if the money is on carolina, then should they not have to cover MORE? -4.5 to -5??

but the opposite happened... they have to cover less (-4.5 to -4).. this is reverse line movement.. do not think about the +/- numbers.. think about what should happen when one team is getting the majority of the money.. this helps me out cuz i also mess it up every once in a while..

Robust

OK, keep writing. It is helping a lot. I will use the Michigan St./Michigan game as an example.

MSU started out -5.5, it has moved to -3.5 even though 63% of the money is on MSU. Normally, when 63% of the money is on the a favorite, the line moves to their dis-favor (like MSU -6). But this scenario is a RLM and the sharp play is on U of M.

But why is this a sharp play? Because it goes against conventional wisdom?

Now using your Iowa State/Texas AM example I am confused on which team is the sharp play.

Iowa St. opened at -2.5 and is now -3. They have 40% of the bets. Which team is the play and why?

[LT Profits]

What does Vegas know that we don't?

LT said (maybe in another thread) that West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast are 33% ATS. Carolina has also not looked too shabby this year.

You are 100% right but Arizona is the play for the angle discussed in this thread.

[LT Profits]

OK, keep writing. It is helping a lot. I will use the Michigan St./Michigan game as an example.

MSU started out -5.5, it has moved to -3.5 even though 63% of the money is on MSU. Normally, when 63% of the money is on the a favorite, the line moves to their dis-favor (like MSU -6). But this scenario is a RLM and the sharp play is on U of M.

But why is this a sharp play? Because it goes against conventional wisdom?

Now using your Iowa State/Texas AM example I am confused on which team is the sharp play.

Iowa St. opened at -2.5 and is now -3. They have 40% of the bets. Which team is the play and why?

Because the amount of money bet by 37% of the bets (sharps) is greater than the amount bet by 63% of the public (squares), causing the RLM.

[McRich]

Because the amount of money bet by 37% of the bets (sharps) is greater than the amount bet by 63% of the public (squares), causing the RLM.

How do we know the amount of money bet by the sharps? Is it the fact that this line moved this way?

Can you explain which side is the sharp play and why in the Iowa St./Texas AM game? I need to see this RLM in action on another game. I can't figure out the sharp play in that game. Thanks.

[DeluxeLiner]

Robust you on Cardinals this weekend?

[Robust]

OK, keep writing. It is helping a lot. I will use the Michigan St./Michigan game as an example.

MSU started out -5.5, it has moved to -3.5 even though 63% of the money is on MSU. Normally, when 63% of the money is on the a favorite, the line moves to their dis-favor (like MSU -6). But this scenario is a RLM and the sharp play is on U of M.

But why is this a sharp play? Because it goes against conventional wisdom?

Now using your Iowa State/Texas AM example I am confused on which team is the sharp play.

Iowa St. opened at -2.5 and is now -3. They have 40% of the bets. Which team is the play and why?

you're thinking about the numbers again.. think about what SHOULD happen.

2008-10-25 TEXAS AM 73% 100% off Click Here
19:00 EST IOWA STATE -2.5 -3.0 27% 0%

Texas has 73% of the bets. They were at +2.5.. now they are at +3.. why would they get a half point more?? this makes no sense..

On the opposite side.. Fewer bets are comming in on Iowa (27%), yet they have to score MORE to cover (-2.5 to -3)..

RLM again.

IOWA St is the play.

Robust