LTA's NFL PLays

[SimonSayz]

Any thoughts on where a blow out could occur today....perhaps Baltimore blows out Cincy....or S blows out the Rams?

Which game on today's dockets looks like it could be totally one-sided?

I think San Francisco destroys St Louis....they will be part of my big parlay today...under as well.

[NYSportsGuy210]

I did a four team ML parlay: 49ers, Patriots, Ravens and Eagles. It pays +200.

I was thinking of New England (-10.5) at Buffalo. Not sure.

[No coincidences]

Any thoughts on where a blow out could occur today....perhaps Baltimore blows out Cincy....or SF blows out the Rams?

Which game on today's dockets looks like it could be totally one-sided?

Why would Baltimore blow out Cincinnati?

[GChild]

I think cincy has a good shot at winning no bolden and Balty is bad on road!

[Dexter]

Good Luck today LTA and Happy New Year to you as well. Big postseason coming from us.......hopefully

[Donnie Brasco]

Happy new year LTA!

[Pick'nParlays]

LTA,

58.5 to rich for your blood?

[TexanCrusher]

bump!

[jas19illini]

LTA, thoughts on NFL MVP odds? Brees is at +150 while Rodgers is -500. Think Brees has a shot?

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 17 Recap

1 - 3 = -2.3x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

85 - 77 = +0.9x

Just a disgusting week. I should have been 3-1 instead of 1-3. The Eagles and Cowboys missed three field goals, any one of which would have cashed my ticket and the late BS score in the Cincy game was also annoying. With most of my time being spent on NBA, and a weak NFL card this week, don't expect too many plays. I may have a couple though. Time to close out the season strong. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA,

58.5 to rich for your blood?

We shall see...haven't even looked at the NFL games yet.

[Love The Action]

LTA, thoughts on NFL MVP odds? Brees is at +150 while Rodgers is -500. Think Brees has a shot?

When do they have to turn in their ballots for the vote? What is the deadline for voting?

[Pick'nParlays]

We shall see...haven't even looked at the NFL games yet.

[jas19illini]

When do they have to turn in their ballots for the vote? What is the deadline for voting?

Not sure. Couldn't find a date on the interwebz.

[Pick'nParlays]

59 at most books now.. I grabbed 58. Hope I made a good wager

[Pick'nParlays]

59.5 at LV books. 59 offshore.

[Louisvillekid1]

Gl Lta

[doin]

2012 NFL Playoff Power Rankings

Over the years, Sports Insights' researchers and analysts have studied various indicators and statistics specifically for the NFL Playoffs. We have devised Sports Insights own proprietary Power Rankings for the upcoming playoffs. Please note that although results have been good over the years, the sample size is not large. Still, the power ratings and rankings are backed by good, fundamental, reasoning -- and historical results have been solid, as highlighted by this Sports Insights blog post summarizing last year's playoff results. The information on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited.

Multiple Factors

Sports Insights has studied a wealth of statistics and our researchers have keyed in on several indicators that show the true "strength" of each of the twelve playoff teams. By using the indicators that show the most correlation with game results, we believe that the power rankings can help obtain value versus the point spread during the NFL Playoffs.

We believe this multi-factor approach can help to uncover value as we combine factors that give us an edge. What are some of the factors that we study? Firstly, we look at the "micro-happenings" behind the wins and losses. What kind of offense and defense are we talking about? Is the team prone to mistakes? What kind of schedule did the team play? How was the team's performance in "quality match-ups?" We use the results of our research to create a composite rating which can be used to obtain value during the NFL Playoffs.

NFL 2011-12 Playoff Team Power Rankings

Below are our Power Rankings for this year's NFL Playoffs. How can you use these rankings? One easy-to-use method is to pick the higher-ranked team versus the spread. Some sports investors might want to make the selection ONLY if the ranking differential is above a certain amount. In either case, please use these rankings in combination with other sports investing tools that you use -- or that we list below. Note that we have highlighted and grouped the teams to separate this year's powerhouses -- from the contenders -- and pretenders. Last year, we note that the Green Bay Packers were near the top of our list -- and were the ultimate Super Bowl Champions.

Many sports fans will be surprised that Green Bay did not receive our top ranking, but New Orleans edged Green Bay due to its explosiveness, balanced offense, and marginally better defense. Our top-four teams all did particularly well against quality opponents. San Francisco, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh round out our "powerhouses" partly due to their dominating defenses. Pittsburgh led the NFL in defense based on "points against" and is ranked #5 on our power rankings list.

Some teams are highlighted with asterisks (*) because their placement within the power rankings might be a bit surprising to some. Please see our notes below the chart for more information.

Ranking Team 1 New Orleans 2 Green Bay 3 San Francisco * 4 Baltimore 5 Pittsburgh 6 Houston * 7 New England * 8 Atlanta 9 Cincinnati 10 New York Giants 11 Detroit * 12 Denver *

* Notes:

• Some readers may be surprised at New England's relatively low power ranking, but New England's blowout wins masked a generally weak schedule, a disappointing AFC East, and the fact that the Patriots did not fare well against quality opponents.
• San Francisco seems to have "come out of nowhere" this season -- but they have put together a very impressive year highlighted by an airtight defense, mistake-free quarterback, and a decently-balanced offense.
• Houston could surprise some teams with their highly-rated defense and running game.
• Detroit fans may be disappointed at their team's power ranking, but the Lions ran up their record against weak schedule and did poorly against quality opponents.
• The past few years have shown that anything can happen in the playoffs. If the Denver Broncos and Tim Tebow can make some noise in the playoffs, some would not be surprised because they have one of the better running games of the playoff teams -- and the Broncos put together an impressive six-game winning streak. However, our analysts note that during that streak, only one victory was by more than 7 points, and several wins were by 3 or 4 points.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Wildcard Round

Play #1

Lions/Saints under (59) 1x (Locked)

If you remember, we cashed the under 56 between the Packers and Lions on Thanksgiving. I think we have a similar situation here with two high profile offenses squaring off indoors with no elements. However, because all of those factors are built into the line with extra value added in for public perception, there is actually a FG of value. I have this game set at 56 which is a very important number because it represents 8 td's which are what is needed to push on that number. In this case, these two offenses will need to eclipse 8td's to cash the over. That requires perfect offensive football and on the opening round of the playoffs, that's not easy to do. Detroit has very solid advanced efficiency ratings on defense against the pass in the top 7 of the league. Their defensive line is dangerous and can put a hurting on Brees at any time. Plus, Detroit will try to slow things down and play the ball control game to keep Brees off the field. By getting this under at 59, you really cover yourself against all of the most important key numbers. With the whole world on the over, the books will really need the under in this game. I don't believe in fading the public for profit, but there is a right time to fade the public and a wrong time to fade. This is a right time and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Ab34]

I feel the same way defenses will be on point in this playoff game Lets get it LTA

[SteveRyan]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Wildcard Round

Play #1

Lions/Saints under (59) 1x (Locked)

If you remember, we cashed the under 56 between the Packers and Lions on Thanksgiving. I think we have a similar situation here with two high profile offenses squaring off indoors with no elements....

59 is the highest total in NFL playoff history; it seems like a tall order. But, the Saints went over 59 seven times this season. That's nearly half of their regular season games. (Over 56 eight times!)

@ Green Bay / 76
vs. Houston / 73
@ Carolina / 57
vs. Indy / 69 (62-7....maybe an exception here)
vs. Giants / 73
@ Minne / 62
vs. Atlanta / 61
vs. Carolina / 62

Last time Saints went to the playoffs, the total hit 59 twice.
vs Arizona (45-14)
vs Minne (31-28)

Saints are good for 5 TD's in this game. Detroit is good for 3. So right there you got 56. All we need is another TD or a couple field goals on either side and its over.

[Love The Action]

59 is the highest total in NFL playoff history; it seems like a tall order. But, the Saints went over 59 seven times this season. That's nearly half of their regular season games. (Over 56 eight times!)

@ Green Bay / 76
vs. Houston / 73
@ Carolina / 57
vs. Indy / 69 (62-7....maybe an exception here)
vs. Giants / 73
@ Minne / 62
vs. Atlanta / 61
vs. Carolina / 62

Last time Saints went to the playoffs, the total hit 59 twice.
vs Arizona (45-14)
vs Minne (31-28)

Saints are good for 5 TD's in this game. Detroit is good for 3. So right there you got 56. All we need is another TD or a couple field goals on either side and its over.

Hmmm and for some reason you don't think the books know this.....

This is the playoffs bud, not the regular season. Don't be surprised to see a 28-24 or 28-21 type game. Guess, what, even though they went over 59 seven times they also went under that number 5 times. Thankfully, neither of those stats actually matter when it comes to this game....

[SteveRyan]

Okay...well, lets just disregard that that Saints have been totaling over 59 all season long because for some reason the just does not matter.

Nor does it matter that they hit 59 twice the last time they went to the playoffs.

Your right...completely irrelevant.

BOL

[SlickRick1382]

Okay...well, lets just disregard that that Saints have been totaling over 59 all season long because for some reason the just does not matter. Nor does it matter that they hit 59 twice the last time they went to the playoffs. Your right...completely irrelevant. BOL

If those statistics were any more relevant than the analysis that LTA provided then I wonder why two of the sharpest books are sitting at 58.5 and haven't been pushed through 59 and over ...

Lions can score but will be wise to try and chew up clock and keep the game as close as possible. The more they got tic for tact then the quicker this game gets out of hand and the Saints run away with it. Lions were without Suh and Houston last time they played and still held Brees and the Saints to 31pts at home.

I agree with LTA's assessment and at 59 there is more value playing the under than there is playing the over. You play value and make money over the long haul since you're continually getting value on your games. You don't go over just because the Saints have gone over the last two playoff games and were over the posted total a little less than 50% of the time.

BOL with your play.

[Love The Action]

Okay...well, lets just disregard that that Saints have been totaling over 59 all season long because for some reason the just does not matter.

Nor does it matter that they hit 59 twice the last time they went to the playoffs.

Your right...completely irrelevant.

BOL

Sorry, I wasn't in the best mood when I posted my response. I was tired and pissed about something else and I took out some of my frustrations in that response to you. My apologies for being a bit of a dick.

Here are my thoughts. Yes, NO has been an absolute scoring machine. Yes, they have gone over 59 plenty of times this year. Moreover, they are especially dangerous at home.

However, the Lions actually have one of the better pass defenses according to the advanced stats. I expect their defensive line to attack some weaknesses on that offensive line and pressure Brees a bit more than he used to. Just like any qb,if you make Brees uncomfortable in the pocket, he will not be as sharp and may be prone to mistakes. As I mentioned in my writeup, I see this one playing out like the Thanksgiving Day game between the Pack/Lions where the total was 56 and we cashed an easy under.

This one is simply a value play for me. Bottom line is that the books are clearly giving us some value (I believe about 3 points) on the under because public perception loving the over based on some of the stats you mentioned. Even though this is definitely a scary under play, I think we see a final score at 56 or under.

The line movement will tell us the story. If this closes over 59, the over is the correct play. If this closes under 59, the under is the correct play.
Good luck my friend.

[Love The Action]

] You play value and make money over the long haul since you're continually getting value on your games. You don't go over just because the Saints have gone over the last two playoff games and were over the posted total a little less than 50% of the time.

Sharp

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, I like the Texans - 3.5, Giants - 3 and Broncos + 9. Do you have any leans on the side ?

[guil0000]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Wildcard Round

Play #1

Lions/Saints under (59) 1x (Locked)

If you remember, we cashed the under 56 between the Packers and Lions on Thanksgiving. I think we have a similar situation here with two high profile offenses squaring off indoors with no elements. However, because all of those factors are built into the line with extra value added in for public perception, there is actually a FG of value. I have this game set at 56 which is a very important number because it represents 8 td's which are what is needed to push on that number. In this case, these two offenses will need to eclipse 8td's to cash the over. That requires perfect offensive football and on the opening round of the playoffs, that's not easy to do. Detroit has very solid advanced efficiency ratings on defense against the pass in the top 7 of the league. Their defensive line is dangerous and can put a hurting on Brees at any time. Plus, Detroit will try to slow things down and play the ball control game to keep Brees off the field. By getting this under at 59, you really cover yourself against all of the most important key numbers. With the whole world on the over, the books will really need the under in this game. I don't believe in fading the public for profit, but there is a right time to fade the public and a wrong time to fade. This is a right time and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

I think I'm sold, sharp play sir!

[killersweet]

Any leans on the side
on det-no game Lta ? Thanks.

[Dexter]

like the under call - only part that scares me is that their game last time should have easily flew over (nate burleson). however, the playoffs are a different animal and i can see payton going to the run game at some point with a big lead to burn the clock. 59 is definitely adjusted for being a prime time tv total. if this game was played on a sunday afternoon, the total would be about 54-55.

[bleedtoledo]

"The line movement will tell us the story. If this closes over 59, the over is the correct play. If this closes under 59, the under is the correct play."

My book has it at 60 now. I doubt it will go any higher than this.

[BoutDemCowboys]

Wow yeah it did go to 60 in m book as well..... Tough call I think im still following Under


Cheers! BOL

[E in AZ]

So you are going to bet the under because it might hit 56 or so like it did on Thanksgiving. Why would you bet this? Your argument is too close to that over/under number to play.

It's the same reason why playing the UNDER in the Pittsburgh game is just not worth attempting.

DET/NO is OVER or no bet

[bleedtoledo]

E in AZ, you're obviously new here. LTA uses a model to predict the # of points scored. When there is a discrepancy between his number & Vegas number, he'll exploit that & make a "value" bet.

And for fuk's sake, it's not like he's on here using the "L" word.

[E in AZ]

I've been reading LTA posts for well over a year now. I just signed up the other day so I can have a voice... I definitely respect most of the posts from LTA, but I just feel like a 3 point discrepancy by Vegas is not something I'm putting my hard earned money on.

This game is in a dome. The running game will be eliminated early and this could jump over 70. I understand the "value" as 59 is way too high for any NFL game. I guess I'm just saying be cautious - Vegas put this big number out there to DARE us to bite.

...and yeah, no "L" word coming from my mouth haha