LTA's NFL PLays

[Trivial]

Here are my thoughts today (not yet locked):

Atlanta +3
Atlanta UNDER 48 (Bodog)
Denver OVER 33.5

Thoughts are welcome.

[burchfield]

First time tailing and I hope today is alot better

[Donnie Brasco]

I think we need no more evidence that the NFL has the sharpest lines. When someone like LTA is struggling to stay in the black, that speaks volumes. The amount of work he puts into his capping is impressive and you almost always see lines move in the direction that he has them capped (in all sports). It has been a tough season with bad beats too, but those years come around. That being said, there is plenty of playoffs left to finish the year positive. Keep up the good work my man, hope you enjoyed the day yesterday with little man.

There are just way too many variables to account for in football. I dont know how anyone beats the nfl, especially totals. Very strange unpredictable things happen all the time. That is why i have so much respect for LTA, dexter and others who can do it. Dexter's unit total is unreal. He knows which plays to pump hard and which are 1x plays . Incredible. LTA prepares better than anyone, just a touch of a struggle. I think it a bit of a misnomer to say the lines are the sharpest. That total flew over. Not like vegas pegged it. They got killed last night on saints and over, you can believe it. Love atlanta today by the way red. That is another team that has it all on offense and enough on defense.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Under 48 in Atlanta -NYG game looks good.

Both team will play the time of possession game....especially the Falcons. They want to limit the effectiveness of the Giants front four pass rush and to do that they will try to run the ball a lot towards Osi Umenyoura as he comes flying of the line looking to get to Matt Ryan. Also Falcons will throw a lot of 8-12 yard passing routes to keep Matt Ryan alive in the pocket.

[jackmyhoggoff]

NFL & OTHER Pro sports are tough only because this $HIT is fixed..... For entertainment only!

[Redscot]

There are just way too many variables to account for in football. I dont know how anyone beats the nfl, especially totals. Very strange unpredictable things happen all the time. That is why i have so much respect for LTA, dexter and others who can do it. Dexter's unit total is unreal. He knows which plays to pump hard and which are 1x plays . Incredible. LTA prepares better than anyone, just a touch of a struggle. I think it a bit of a misnomer to say the lines are the sharpest. That total flew over. Not like vegas pegged it. They got killed last night on saints and over, you can believe it. Love atlanta today by the way red. That is another team that has it all on offense and enough on defense.

Agreed DB. The totals in the NFL are so combustible. Defensive scores, pass interference penalties and special teams to a lesser extent are just so tough to account for. I take my hat off to LTA as well, although I wonder sometimes if he focused more on sides in the NFL he would have an easier go at it. I'd be interested in his opinion on that actually. I have Atlanta/Pitt teased to +9,-2 respectively. GL today.

[Love The Action]

although I wonder sometimes if he focused more on sides in the NFL he would have an easier go at it. I'd be interested in his opinion on that actually.

Good luck on your plays. I am passing on the early NFL game all the way around. Might play the late game, but we'll see.

I concentrate more on the totals markets for the sports markets in which I invest because they generally provide for softer opening numbers and more +ev opportunities. In addition, you generally have less volume and more sharp action in the totals markets. Consequently, if you can stay one step ahead of the sharp action and sharp steam, you can give yourself a larger edge on totals than on sides.

In general with the NFL, just like my other investment markets, I can give myself more of an edge -- and thus more +ev per play -- by concentrating on the totals markets. As you know, the line rarely moves against my o/u plays once I have locked them in. That is because I have worked very hard to both develop my model and refine my natural instincts in order to predict (1) the direction the line will move and (2) when the steam will hit. Staying one step ahead of the market is what gives me my edge and is why I concentrate my investements in totals.

In the side markets, you have way more volume and much less volatile line movement compared to totals. Everything revolves around key numbers in the NFL. Therefore, you will see a bigger adjustment in price (juice going up to -115 or more) than actually moves when an opening number is set at a key number like 3, 7, etc. The margins are razor sharp on NFL sides because that is where the books direct most of the attention. In general, NFL lines are sharper in the NFL than any other sport. That applies to both sides and totals. However, the books know more people will plays sides rather than totals so they put more work and attention to sides.

My model detects less "value" on sides because my numbers and Vegas numbers on sides are often very close. That is why I do not play as many sides -- I just can't find an edge. However, I very often detect value on totals and that value is most often where the line will end up moving. As you know, I am, for the most part, a value player first and foremost. Consequently, I don't play as many sides because the "value" just isn't there, whereas we might find a FG or more of value on a handful of totals each week.

This was just an unusual season with a lot of bad beats. Hypothetically, I should get a lot of breaks next season and have one of my better NFL seasons next year. I guess only time will tell. Either way, however, I don't mind giving a little money back on football because that keeps me from getting limited or cut off from NBA and MLB action. As you know, those are my two priorities. NFL and NCAAF are more about a bridge between those two seasons than anything else.

[Trivial]

I have Under 48 and have a live bet of over 36 in the Atlanta game. Wish me luck.

Also have Atlanta +3.

Thinking of Over 34 for Denver.

[Redscot]

Good luck on your plays. I am passing on the early NFL game all the way around. Might play the late game, but we'll see.

I concentrate more on the totals markets for the sports markets in which I invest because they generally provide for softer opening numbers and more +ev opportunities. In addition, you generally have less volume and more sharp action in the totals markets. Consequently, if you can stay one step ahead of the sharp action and sharp steam, you can give yourself a larger edge on totals than on sides.

In general with the NFL, just like my other investment markets, I can give myself more of an edge -- and thus more +ev per play -- by concentrating on the totals markets. As you know, the line rarely moves against my o/u plays once I have locked them in. That is because I have worked very hard to both develop my model and refine my natural instincts in order to predict (1) the direction the line will move and (2) when the steam will hit. Staying one step ahead of the market is what gives me my edge and is why I concentrate my investements in totals.

In the side markets, you have way more volume and much less volatile line movement compared to totals. Everything revolves around key numbers in the NFL. Therefore, you will see a bigger adjustment in price (juice going up to -115 or more) than actually moves when an opening number is set at a key number like 3, 7, etc. The margins are razor sharp on NFL sides because that is where the books direct most of the attention. In general, NFL lines are sharper in the NFL than any other sport. That applies to both sides and totals. However, the books know more people will plays sides rather than totals so they put more work and attention to sides.

My model detects less "value" on sides because my numbers and Vegas numbers on sides are often very close. That is why I do not play as many sides -- I just can't find an edge. However, I very often detect value on totals and that value is most often where the line will end up moving. As you know, I am, for the most part, a value player first and foremost. Consequently, I don't play as many sides because the "value" just isn't there, whereas we might find a FG or more of value on a handful of totals each week.

This was just an unusual season with a lot of bad beats. Hypothetically, I should get a lot of breaks next season and have one of my better NFL seasons next year. I guess only time will tell. Either way, however, I don't mind giving a little money back on football because that keeps me from getting limited or cut off from NBA and MLB action. As you know, those are my two priorities. NFL and NCAAF are more about a bridge between those two seasons than anything else.

Thanks for the response bro, makes a lot of sense.

[brucethebear]

Hey LTA,
Cheers for the great response. Based on the above, have you given any thought to player props?

All th best for the rest of the season.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA,
Cheers for the great response. Based on the above, have you given any thought to player props?

All th best for the rest of the season.

No, I have no interest in player props. There are just way too many variables...

[Night-Tripper]

No, I have no interest in player props. There are just way too many variables...

Agreed.. I view them the same way I view the prop bets at a Vegas crap table.

[Love The Action]

NFL & OTHER Pro sports are tough only because this $HIT is fixed..... For entertainment only!

Please keep this type of nonsense out of my threads. I welcome discussion about the games, but please limit that discussion to factors based in reality and not fantasy land type stuff.

Even if we accept your silly premise that all pro sports are allegedly fixed -- and I could write a thesis about why you are wrong -- we always have an equal chance of being on the winning side of the fix as the losing side. Therefore, even if all the games are fixed, your odds of cashing a fixed ticket are just as good as losing a fixed ticket.

Instead of always complaining about the alleged "fix," do your homework and develop a method to succeed in spite of the alleged fix. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the response bro, makes a lot of sense.

What are you playing in the 2nd game?

[Love The Action]

I am passing on the 2nd game as well. I was tempted to buy the hook and take the Steelers at (-7)(-120) or to tease the Steelers to (-1.5)/under (40), but I decided to just watch the games without any money on them. I have three NBA investments that I feel really good about, so no need to press my luck with NFL today.

[brucethebear]

No, I have no interest in player props. There are just way too many variables...

Fair enough mate.

[Redscot]

What are you playing in the 2nd game?

Well Atlanta ****** my teaser with Pitt. Being the action junkie I am, went with Pitt/Over teaser.......need a Pitt. victory and 27 points , 27 points!

[Love The Action]

Well Atlanta ****** my teaser with Pitt. Being the action junkie I am, went with Pitt/Over teaser.......need a Pitt. victory and 27 points , 27 points!

I like Denver's game plan so far...just throw it deep and hope for the best. They have nothing to lose.

I also have to be fair. Despite my conclusions that Tebow will not find long term success as a starting qb -- and I still firmly believe that -- he throws a great deep ball. He is inaccurate on the short to mid level stuff, but he does have a pretty accurate deep ball.

[Redscot]

I like Denver's game plan so far...just throw it deep and hope for the best. They have nothing to lose.

I also have to be fair. Despite my conclusions that Tebow will not find long term success as a starting qb -- and I still firmly believe that -- he throws a great deep ball. He is inaccurate on the short to mid level stuff, but he does have a pretty accurate deep ball.

Wow! Just Wow! Agreed on Denver's game plan. Where was it the last 3 weeks though? I ain't a believer. They are certainly in great position for this game atm though.

[No coincidences]

I like Denver's game plan so far...just throw it deep and hope for the best. They have nothing to lose.

I also have to be fair. Despite my conclusions that Tebow will not find long term success as a starting qb -- and I still firmly believe that -- he throws a great deep ball. He is inaccurate on the short to mid level stuff, but he does have a pretty accurate deep ball.

Couldn't agree more -- their best strategy has always been taking shots deep to loosen up the D for their running game.

Tebow is awful on intermediate and/or short passes. Just awful. One of the worst I've ever seen in the NFL, frankly.

[Love The Action]

Just an FYI, for those of you that follow my NCAAF plays, I decided to shoot for the middle in that Arkansas State/NIU game.

As you know, I originally bought the over at 62 a few weeks ago for 1x. Tonight, I just bought the under at 67, which gives us 2x in profit if the game ends on 63, 64, 65 or 66 and a 1x win if it ends on 62 or 67. With the strength of Arkansas State's defense and the length of layoff possibly leading to some rusty offense, I thought this was the smart play. Good luck.

[Trivial]

My 0.5x on Denver winning the superbowl... Still alive.

[Redscot]

My 0.5x on Denver winning the superbowl... Still alive.

Right on Triv!

[guil0000]

LTA, any toughts on Saints/49er O/U 47.5 next week. I like one side but figured I'd ask you since totals us your strength

[RenoHightower]

This is the only place I ever check for totals...keep up the good work LTA!

[Pick'nParlays]

yo my bad, i said that drunk last night

I think we all were lol

[TomatoFace]

Any bets made for the weekend yet? Some of these spreads are head scratchers..

[Love The Action]

What does everyone like today. I have a strong play in mind....

[Redscot]

I think N.E. obliterates Denver personally. I have a small play on the S.F under and another small Tease S.F./under. Love to hear what you are thinking

[Donnie Brasco]

Saints -3, waiting to see if denver goes up.

[frostie]

N.o - 3.5 not touching the under/over in this If anything I like the under but after last week I can't take an under on a new Orleans game lol

[absolutkaos]

Tebow time has run out. NE by two TD's, and I'm feeling a bit like this one might go over.

I agree with Red that the SF game goes under, not by much, but that Niners run D is stiff and should take Sproles out of the game, and I think the Niners win.

[The Coach's Desk]

SF +4
Ne/Den ov

[hey buddy]

Liking the Pats a lot. I see slight value in SF but NO scares me too much.

[Love The Action]

I think N.E. obliterates Denver personally. I have a small play on the S.F under and another small Tease S.F./under. Love to hear what you are thinking

In the NFL, it's rare for one team to beat another team two times in one season, let along two obliterations in one season. That first NE/Denver game was more about turnovers. What if Denver and Tebow cuts down on the turnovers? Does NE still obliterate them?

I can't remember, but wasn't Von Miller out when NE and Denver played about a month ago?