I don't think I'm gonna make a play on the o/u. Although I have a gut feeling it will go under. I've been teasing LTA's recommendations NCAA/NFL/NBA and Ive hit ten of my last 11(thanks lta!!!) So I've got saints -2.5 and -½ pending. Not even gonna hedge on the lions!
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U are right, vegas did put that number out there for u to bite. There is obviously some shading towards the over for several reasons here:
1. Recent performance by the saints offense
2. Ability of the lions to air it out and strike quick with pass attack
3. Public perception influenced by the aforementioned
4. More public eyes on these nfl games now that the playoffs are here and these games will each have the spotlight
5. Vegas knows public likes overs
This game would need 8 tds and 2 fgs to go over (currently 59.5), which i hit again to get the hook. The saints recent performance has been phenomenal, but this is a bit skewed. Brees trying to get his record, trying to get records for teammates and trying to get a bye. Now that the cards have been dealt it is time to play postseason, win this game football. The saints wont have the petal to the metal because of the lack of a bye and resting players once the game is in control. Brees wont be throwing it late in the game, and ivory will be pounding the rock. The dome will be rocking and greg williams will have this defense dialed in. Now for the lions, who were missing atleast 3 key defensive players last time out in new orleans. We know this defense can play and will on wild card saturday. Yes 70 is possible, but highly unlikely, as is 59.5. The value is in the under here, as stated by LTA. Yes, an over on the opener of 55 or so would have positive EV over time cause u kill tht closing #. But now that this thing has topped out at 59.5-60, we are getting the best number on the under which is where the +EV is now. Good luck in whatever you choose. And oh yeah, WHO DAT, WHO DAT, WHO DAT say they gonna beat them saints, WHO DAT, WHO DAT! I will be at the no limit holdem table at harrahs new orleans enjoying the revelry that only my home state and this city can produce! Thanks LTA for all you do! And thanks to all who contribute intelligent points if view to this forum, red, triv, sox, buck an the fam, dexter, no coin, and whoever i forgot! You guys are the shiznit!
Last edited by Donnie Brasco; 01-07-12, 02:08 PM.Comment -
Isn't megatron hobbled a bit, too. You gotta think saints will isolate him, take him out of the game. I wonder what percent he's at physically.Comment -
I'm gonna charge my phone and attempt to log in at the bar tonight. When the total is between 31 and 38 at halftime, I'm gonna be very curious to hear what everyone is saying.Comment -
Yo!!! E in AZ.....it's great you have an opinion, but LTA has been doing this since you've been in diapers. You maybe right and you maybe wrong but either way have some respect, i am sure if your right you will be on here saying I told you so, and if LTA's pick wins its just another day at the office for LTA because of his track record, so before you come on here and try to sway LTA's pick, lets see you cap some games with write up's like LTA has been doing for years now. IMO there is no need for haters or WANNABEE'S, just post an opinion, don't try to sway his pick...you feeling me!!! Because you seem
when it comes to respect.
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You are right, what I meant to say was, YESSS, the final will be Saints 10, Lions 3!! Go get em!! (BUZZER SOUND)
Isn't this a forum? I go on here to read and look for the one comment that catches my eye. I'm not gonna sit here and play every play like of someone like you will. I pick and choose. I have played many of plays posted by LTA. I just don't think there is much value in the total on this game. Its gonna be AT THE LOWEST in the 50's, so why bet it? THAT IS ALL I'M TRYING TO SAYComment -
Yeah, it's a forum. Congrats for figuring that out. I think his point is that there is no reason for you to try to get LTA off his play just because *YOU* don't believe there is value to be had. Fact is, there IS value to be had, whether or not your little brain can grasp that. LTA has a proven track record when it comes to his handicapping, and you, well... you're just some guy on the internet talking sh*t at this point. You have yet to display ANY advanced stats or concrete numbers of ANY kind that will back up your over bet, and to be honest, it sounds like you're a rookie looking for some attention. BOL though, I'm sure you're sitting there watching ESPN and thinking your over is the
of the playoffs.
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Play #2
Bengals/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)
We got burned on the under in this matchup by a last second TD. I don't think it will be close today. I have this game set at 35 and we're getting a FG of value in this game as well. I wanted to get 39, but I was consumed with NBA when this one opened and it was hit right away. Both defenses far exceed the offenses in the advanced stats and we have two rookie quarterbacks squaring off in their first playoff starts. I think we see both offenses concentrate on the running game and play ball control offense predicated on field position and defense. I'm off to spend the day with family and won't be checking. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Classy as always, LTA. Looks like under or no play for me - must admit that the steam is starting to scare me off at this point. What are your thoughts? It's up to 60.5 in some spots...
Either way good luck to you.
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tailing BoL to us
Have fun with the fam. Definitely deserve a break from here!
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LTA, thanks for confirming my HOU/CIN bet. 100% with you there.
Hey spk, I think ESPN also has the under too...what you gonna do now?Comment -
Charles Barkley just said he loves the Lions and "both teams are definitely gonna score."
So it looks like saints and the under! LolComment -
Took the under with you LTA
Also leaned Bengals later in the day and took them +4 and teased them to +11 in another play.Comment -
Early and this under is making me nervous need no points this quarterComment -
This game is going way over...Comment -
Why can't teams be happy going into the half tied... It seems like everytime I bet an under it get f'd by stuff like thatComment -
Well I can't even tell you how many damn times we bet the damn cincy under and we lost!!!! Unreal and I told myself not to bet it and I did...Comment -
I hate unders!!!Comment -
If dude wouldn't have had that freak pik 6 you guys might have cashed.Comment -
And that's that that's the last damn under I play in the nfl unrealComment -
that pick 6 was the deal breaker ... all the capping in the world cant predict that kind of garbageComment -
this guy has really good write ups but never ever winsComment -
Dude, You weren't saying this shyt when LT was giving us all his under and over winners all year. Jeez way to knock a fella with a couple of bad results on what has still been a stellar season. I love your BOOOM and BAAAM when we win but how about less of the knocking when we have a rare bad night.
In other news...Great call LT on the baskets once again.Comment -
Dude, You weren't saying this shyt when LT was giving us all his under and over winners all year. Jeez way to knock a fella with a couple of bad results on what has still been a stellar season. I love your BOOOM and BAAAM when we win but how about less of the knocking when we have a rare bad night.
In other news...Great call LT on the baskets once again.
..agreed!Comment -
I had Saints -10.5/O59 parlayed with Cin +4/U38. Not so good way to start the playoffs for me.
Sometimes, it's not until the game is over that the correct play seems so obvious. Cincinnati on the road....no good. I told my buddy that I was going to take Houston and the over, but then over-analyzed the game for about 1 hour on Friday and somehow came up with Cincinnati covering U38
Best of luck to everyone tomorrow, and for what it's worth, I locked Atlanta +3/O47.5
My first instinct was that the Giants will choke at home in this critical game; so I just stuck with that.
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Come on Lol's....never?!?
I don't know about that....check my other threads bud. Ive been profitable for SBR in every sport for over a year. Ive given you guys over +40x in profit in MLB (which you followed because I remember you commenting positively in my thread a few times), gave you over +45x in profit from the NBA playoffs last season (+90x under my unit scale at the time), I am up +7x in NCAAF on this season and after last night I am down in NFL about 1x with plenty of time to get back into the black by the super bowl. Im also having a very solid start to the young NBA season. Not bragging here either, just stating the facts to set the record straight.
The only reason I lost last night was because you probably had a lock thread somewhere about those plays
Just messing with you. I actually think you are a pretty funny guy and I really am having a frustrating up and down NFL season with too many bad beats to list. However, I'm not GG and my overall track record speaks for itself. So don't troll on me bro...i don't mind accurate criticsm but please get your facts straight first pal.
Good luck in the future and no hard feelings here. Keep doing your thing, but be accurate if you are going to do it in here.
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yo my bad, i said that drunk last nightCome on Lol's....never?!?
I don't know about that....check my other threads bud. Ive been profitable for SBR in every sport for over a year. Ive given you guys over +40x in profit in MLB (which you followed because I remember you commenting positively in my thread a few times), gave you over +45x in profit from the NBA playoffs last season (+90x under my unit scale at the time), I am up +7x in NCAAF on this season and after last night I am down in NFL about 1x with plenty of time to get back into the black by the super bowl. Im also having a very solid start to the young NBA season. Not bragging here either, just stating the facts to set the record straight.
The only reason I lost last night was because you probably had a lock thread somewhere about those plays
Just messing with you. I actually think you are a pretty funny guy and I really am having a frustrating up and down NFL season with too many bad beats to list. However, I'm not GG and my overall track record speaks for itself. So don't troll on me bro...i don't mind accurate criticsm but please get your facts straight first pal.
Good luck in the future and no hard feelings here. Keep doing your thing, but be accurate if you are going to do it in here.
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Man LTA, u got screwed in the bengals game. That rookie couldnt make that pick off again with a hundred tries. That was unreal. U were spot on there. Just another tough loss that shoulda gone ur way. As for the saints game, what can be said? The saints defense isnt good. We knew that. But megatron is just incredible. The saints corners and safeties left him open all night playing that shitty cover two shell or whatever the hell they were trying to play and stafford did what he does. That did mot surprise me. What did was the saints offense and the lions defense. Lions couldnt stop the run, and brees was just phenomenal AGAIN! Not that i expect him not to be, but these guys are relentless. They are not going to stop scoring unless stopped. Which is great if ur a saints fan like me, but awful for under backers like us last night. Really thought they would shut it down. But they couldnt stop the lions And get that comfortable lead. The lions defense just didnt have a chance. Still think the under was the play and id do it again. My saints to win the superbowl future at 7.5:1 is looking promising. They may not stop anyone, but they cant be scored with. Good luck the rest if the season, and dont stress with the trolls. You are the man!Comment -
I think we need no more evidence that the NFL has the sharpest lines. When someone like LTA is struggling to stay in the black, that speaks volumes. The amount of work he puts into his capping is impressive and you almost always see lines move in the direction that he has them capped (in all sports). It has been a tough season with bad beats too, but those years come around. That being said, there is plenty of playoffs left to finish the year positive. Keep up the good work my man, hope you enjoyed the day yesterday with little man.
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