LTA's NFL PLays

[Redscot]

After Bill Simmons went 4-0 ATS last week, and 2-0 yesterday, I can't help but roll with his picks again today...this short write up on the early game puts it all in a nutshell, can't help but see the game turning out this way...

"RAVENS (-7.5) over Texans
My only worry about this game: It looks too easy. You know the Ravens will sell out to stop the run and dare rookie QB T.J. Yates to beat them; you know Houston will do everything it can to avoid putting Yates in that spot (which means we'll get to watch Arian Foster and Ben Tate stubbornly running into eight Ravens for the entire first half); you know Baltimore does the "front-runner piling it on at home" routine better than just about anyone; and you know Ray Rice will be heard from in this game.


All right, so let's say the Ravens go up by double digits on Sunday … what then? We're supposed to think T.J. Yates is going to rally the Texans back? It's fun to think the Texans can hang around with their defense, turn this into a low-scoring slugfest, then hope Joe Flacco can give them a late turnover and steal the game late. And yes, we're riding a six-year streak of home playoff teams submitting a stinkbomb in Round 2 — as fans of the 2010 Patriots, 2009 Chargers, 2008 Panthers, 2007 Colts, 2006 Chargers/Ravens and 2005 Colts/Bears would tell you — and really, there's no better candidate than the 2011 Ravens (a pretty flawed team). But backing T.J. Yates on the road? I can't. I just can't."

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the game. I will be playing the Ravens for sure. Wow, my local has the total sitting at 35 1/2 still. Has me contemplating a Ravens -1.5/Over -29 1/2 tease as well, would need 30 points total................hmmmmmmmmmm. I am also seriously contemplating combing the Ravens - 1.5/Giants +13.5 in a tease as well. I know, I know teases are square, but they have been good to me this NFL season.

[absolutkaos]

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the game. I will be playing the Ravens for sure. Wow, my local has the total sitting at 35 1/2 still. Has me contemplating a Ravens -1.5/Over -29 1/2 tease as well, would need 30 points total................hmmmmmmmmmm. I am also seriously contemplating combing the Ravens - 1.5/Giants +13.5 in a tease as well. I know, I know teases are square, but they have been good to me this NFL season.

You really think the G-Men +13.5 tease is the way to go over the Packers -1.5?

I just dont see the Packers taking their foot of the gas pedal in this one.

[absolutkaos]

Who is Bill Simmons?

Long time sports writer for ESPN/Grantland. He's written a few books on the Sox & NBA. Really knows his stuff when it comes to picking games ATS. Had a down year in NFL picks, this year due to the fact that he launched his new site Grantland, but in the past has always put up good numbers. 6-0 in the playoffs this year though. I like him cause he gives good write-ups for his picks, and always picks ATS rather than a lot of writers who just pick straight-up W/L's.

Here's a link to his site. GRANTLAND

[Dmil]

Is anybody on the Texans? Ravens blew them out 29-14 this season. Game was close early 3rd, Texans were up 14-13 then Balt out scored them 16-0. Mind you the line on that game was Balt -7 with Schaub playing and no A. Johnson . Now u get a rookie QB Yates going against a rested Raven 'D' and the line is only -7.5 . I think one of today 2 game will go under the total.Texans and the under here.

[Trivial]

Long time sports writer for ESPN/Grantland. He's written a few books on the Sox & NBA. Really knows his stuff when it comes to picking games ATS. Had a down year in NFL picks, this year due to the fact that he launched his new site Grantland, but in the past has always put up good numbers. 6-0 in the playoffs this year though. I like him cause he gives good write-ups for his picks, and always picks ATS rather than a lot of writers who just pick straight-up W/L's.

Here's a link to his site. GRANTLAND

Thanks. Will look at it.

[doogtonmai]

Live Betting: good values on the Under right now (just hope Texans don't score much)

[Redscot]

You really think the G-Men +13.5 tease is the way to go over the Packers -1.5?

I just dont see the Packers taking their foot of the gas pedal in this one.

I think going Packers -1.5 is solid too Kaos. I think the Giants keep this one close and it comes down to the last possession. This Ravens game could get ugly in a hurry, last thing Yates needs is to have to pass the Texans back into this game.

[Dmil]

Is anybody on the Texans? Ravens blew them out 29-14 this season. Game was close early 3rd, Texans were up 14-13 then Balt out scored them 16-0. Mind you the line on that game was Balt -7 with Schaub playing and no A. Johnson . Now u get a rookie QB Yates going against a rested Raven 'D' and the line is only -7.5 . I think one of today 2 game will go under the total.Texans and the under here.

Had second thoughts took the over, i play the Giants UNDER.
#S-15386977
01/15 12:38 pm -$ 660.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 600.00 Texans vs Ravens (AFC Divisional Playoff) (CBS) Over 37

[Love The Action]

Had second thoughts took the over, i play the Giants UNDER.
#S-15386977
01/15 12:38 pm -$ 660.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 600.00 Texans vs Ravens (AFC Divisional Playoff) (CBS) Over 37

Come one Dmil....ya gotta post before the game starts not after there's already 17 points on the board.

[Love The Action]

Live Betting: good values on the Under right now (just hope Texans don't score much)

I don't have access to live betting on a regular basis, but when my local's book does offer it, it's only on the big games and the odds are -115. Is that what you pay?

If you are really doing well with live betting, you should start posting your wagers in a thread to follow. Perhaps your strategies could help others.

Good luck buddy

[Dmil]

Come one Dmil....ya gotta post before the game starts not after there's already 17 points on the board.

POST WAS MADE AT 10:30
#S-15387438
01/15 02:45 pm -$ 110.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 100.00 2HTexans vs 2HRavens (2nd Half) Under 19.5 -110
#S-15386995
01/15 12:44 pm -$ 550.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 500.00 Texans vs Ravens (AFC Divisional Playoff) (CBS) Texans +7.5
#S-15386977
01/15 12:38 pm -$ 660.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 600.00 Texans vs Ravens (AFC Divisional Playoff) (CBS) Ov

[Love The Action]

I'm passing. Was leaning towards Green Bay if it ever got down to -7 (-110), but it never got there. I don't think this matchup -- where the Giants defensive line are playing well -- is worth -120 at -7. Better to pass and just enjoy the game.

Good luck to everyone with action

[Love The Action]

POST WAS MADE AT 10:30
#S-15387438
01/15 02:45 pm -$ 110.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 100.00 2HTexans vs 2HRavens (2nd Half) Under 19.5 -110
#S-15386995
01/15 12:44 pm -$ 550.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 500.00 Texans vs Ravens (AFC Divisional Playoff) (CBS) Texans +7.5
#S-15386977
01/15 12:38 pm -$ 660.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 600.00 Texans vs Ravens (AFC Divisional Playoff) (CBS) Ov

Hmmm....where I'm looking you posted your play at 10:30 on the under where you said "Texans and the under." You then posted a play on the over after the game started.

No biggie, I was just messing with ya anyway. I really don't care either way.

It seems like you have a lot of action....you should start your own thread and track your plays. I found it really helped refine my overall process.

Good luck on your plays.

[italianbandit]

I had a dream that the Giants won 56-7 last night. They should cover. GL all. When I dream I'm like a gambling shaman.

[Dmil]

LTA
Your still the Master

[doogtonmai]

I'm passing. Was leaning towards Green Bay if it ever got down to -7 (-110), but it never got there. I don't think this matchup -- where the Giants defensive line are playing well -- is worth -120 at -7. Better to pass and just enjoy the game.

Good luck to everyone with action

I'm waiting for the Giants to score and I'm dumping 10 units on Green Bay with the Live Betting line. "Discount Double Check" baby!

[GChild]

I'm waiting for the Giants to score and I'm dumping 10 units on Green Bay with the Live Betting line. "Discount Double Check" baby!

That damn commercial

[Redscot]

I'm waiting for the Giants to score and I'm dumping 10 units on Green Bay with the Live Betting line. "Discount Double Check" baby!

GL Doog!

My over 29.5/- 1.5 Ravens hit in the first half , was a scary 2nd half holding on to it. Need Giants +13.5 over 47 here for tease and hit the compound tease with the first game as well..........

[Redscot]

Gonna have to monitor the weather and other elements this week, but all things being equal, I think New England handles Baltimore with ease.....I was thoroughly unimpressed with the Ravens today.

San Fran/Giants...wow, that takes me back....this one is gonna need some serious thought.......

[Love The Action]

I had a dream that the Giants won 56-7 last night. They should cover. GL all. When I dream I'm like a gambling shaman.

Can you please let me know about any more dreams you have

[doogtonmai]

I don't have access to live betting on a regular basis, but when my local's book does offer it, it's only on the big games and the odds are -115. Is that what you pay?

If you are really doing well with live betting, you should start posting your wagers in a thread to follow. Perhaps your strategies could help others.

Good luck buddy

The sportsbook I use has everything even Live Betting. I was thinking about a thread, but it would be too time consuming to keep up with everything. Thanks for everything you do!

[doogtonmai]

Gonna have to monitor the weather and other elements this week, but all things being equal, I think New England handles Baltimore with ease.....I was thoroughly unimpressed with the Ravens today.

San Fran/Giants...wow, that takes me back....this one is gonna need some serious thought.......

Yeah, I ended up netting +1.37 units today in football. If Greenbay could of at least won the game it would have been an over +25 unit hedge (middle) for all my action and Live Betting between these two games. If Ravens cover I would have won over +35 units. Oh well, I'll take those odds any day on an unpredicatable night.

[italianbandit]

For you LTA I will post all my dream predictions. Don't worry I only have a few a year. My unconscious brain is definitely sharper than my analytical mind.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Round 2

0 - 1 = -1.1

NFL 2011-2012 Season

85 - 80 = -2.3x

Saints unders have been the killer for me. Let's see if we can't get on a roll for the NFC/AFC Championships and Super Bowl. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Round 3

Play #1

Giants (+3) 1x (Locked)

I have the Giants set at +1.5, so I'm going to take a shot with the hot team. As we know, when teams get on a roll at the end of the year, they tend to do well in the playoffs. This was true with Green Bay last year and many previous winners, including the Giants the year they beat the Pats. I listened to interviews after the game and the Giants truly believe they can win this game. With the Giants improving defensive line to pressure Smith, I think this is no better than a field goal game and would not be surprised to see a closing number of +2.5 under the key number of 3. The Giants have the far better offense and a defense that is playing at a high level, plus a QB that has won in these pressure spots before. With a healthy running back tandem of Bradshaw and Jacobs, I think their running game should be improved enough to keep that great SF defense honest. I'm not sure that the Giants will win, but I am certain this will not be a blowout in favor the Niners. I see this one ending 21-20 or 24-23 or something close to those numbers. I think we are getting a little bit of value on the Giants, plus they are the "hot" team right now in the playoffs winning multiple road games, so I think they keep the train rolling. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Giants for 1x. Good luck.

[Dmil]

Gonna have to monitor the weather and other elements this week, but all things being equal, I think New England handles Baltimore with ease.....I was thoroughly unimpressed with the Ravens today.

San Fran/Giants...wow, that takes me back....this one is gonna need some serious thought.......

Handle Ravens with ease . Care to rethink? U are wise but i beg to differ. Don't get this one twisted, the Ravens are not the Denver Tebows. Belichick & Brady wanted to crush Tebow and put his hype to sleep. Don't hate on Ravens cause they didn't CTS,give a little credit to the Texans defense. The Ravens have a good offense and a dominating defense. Common opponents this season shows the Ravens beat a healthy Steelers team twice (rare LTA?) and the Steelers beat the Pats holding Brady to under 200 yards. Ravens plus the points here and a good chance of Harbaugh vs Harbaugh rematch in the bowl.

[hey buddy]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Round 3

Play #1

Giants (+3) 1x (Locked)

I have the Giants set at +1.5, so I'm going to take a shot with the hot team. As we know, when teams get on a roll at the end of the year, they tend to do well in the playoffs. This was true with Green Bay last year and many previous winners, including the Giants the year they beat the Pats. I listened to interviews after the game and the Giants truly believe they can win this game. With the Giants improving defensive line to pressure Smith, I think this is no better than a field goal game and would not be surprised to see a closing number of +2.5 under the key number of 3. The Giants have the far better offense and a defense that is playing at a high level, plus a QB that has won in these pressure spots before. With a healthy running back tandem of Bradshaw and Jacobs, I think their running game should be improved enough to keep that great SF defense honest. I'm not sure that the Giants will win, but I am certain this will not be a blowout in favor the Niners. I see this one ending 21-20 or 24-23 or something close to those numbers. I think we are getting a little bit of value on the Giants, plus they are the "hot" team right now in the playoffs winning multiple road games, so I think they keep the train rolling. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Giants for 1x. Good luck.

LTA, just to let you know there is a good chance of high winds and rain on Saturday in SF. Obviously, it can change but that's the call for now. Just curious if that changes your play at all or gives you any plays on the over/under. I know weather certainly isn't the only thing to consider but might sway someone if they were leaning one way or the other.

[Redscot]

Handle Ravens with ease . Care to rethink? U are wise but i beg to differ. Don't get this one twisted, the Ravens are not the Denver Tebows. Belichick & Brady wanted to crush Tebow and put his hype to sleep. Don't hate on Ravens cause they didn't CTS,give a little credit to the Texans defense. The Ravens have a good offense and a dominating defense. Common opponents this season shows the Ravens beat a healthy Steelers team twice (rare LTA?) and the Steelers beat the Pats holding Brady to under 200 yards. Ravens plus the points here and a good chance of Harbaugh vs Harbaugh rematch in the bowl.

First off, be very careful calling me wise pal! I've been called a lot of things in my life.....

I stand behind my initial Rum influenced statement. I still have not looked into this game in depth, but my initial gut feeling remains. The fact that Pinny has this set at 9 atm strengthens my case. I just feel that the Pat's will get 28 + in this game and don't see Balty keeping up with them, a 31-20 type game. Again, lots of time left to look further into this one, so I do reserve the right to change my opinion . Looking forward to to others thoughts on the 2 games and LTA especially.

GL Dmil

[Love The Action]

LTA, just to let you know there is a good chance of high winds and rain on Saturday in SF. Obviously, it can change but that's the call for now. Just curious if that changes your play at all or gives you any plays on the over/under. I know weather certainly isn't the only thing to consider but might sway someone if they were leaning one way or the other.

I am aware. Weather is overrated as it affects both teams. I am fully behind the guants, but if something changes I should be ok because this number is never going to -3.5. Good luck.

[ballsyman]

Dmil.... Nobody is stopping Brady and his weapons. 2 yrs ago the ravens upset the pats without welker and those tide ends, Brady is on a mission man, ravens have no shot, if Shaub was quarterbacking in that game ravens be home right now. Flacco will never win a ring as the ravens quarterback. Pats 34-20

[Trivial]

Giants +3
Giants over 42
Ne over 50

Those are my only plays this week

Might do Giants ML too.

[SlickRick1382]

Giants +3 Giants over 42 Ne over 50 Those are my only plays this week Might do Giants ML too.

Think the line was set low at 42 for a reason IMO. SF is a FG scoring type of team and what they did to the Saints won't happen this week. You won't see their offense throw up 30+ points. Same can be said for the Giants. I don't like the total in this game although I am rolling with the Giants +3

[Donnie Brasco]

Wow gmen down to 2! Got it at 3 and the total under 43......lets see where beating the # gets me. Also on balty 7.5 ,under 50. Good luck guys!

[Authentic]

Let's go Giants. Got them locked in!

[Trivial]

Good luck fellas. I like my over in both games. I do not think any of these games stay under. Pick 6s can happen in these preasure games.