LTA's NFL PLays

[Dexter]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Round 3

2 - 0 = +2x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

87 - 80 = -0.2x

After the whole season, we are basically at even entering the Super Bowl. Set up perfectly to end the season in the black. Good luck.

same here....i am up a whopping $25 heading into the Superbowl.

still a good job by you....most people are broke at this point.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Super Bowl

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

I think the Giants win this game based on superior defensive line play. These teams are very comparable but the Giants defensive line is playing at an extremely high level and I think the pressure they place on Brady will be the difference. If you look at the matchups, Brady is better than Manning but Manning has proved himself to be at that "level" of top 5 qb's. Advantage Pats, but not a huge advantage. NE's rushing game is more efficient but Giants' Bradshaw and Jacobs are a better 1-2 punch than what the Pats offer (no offense to Woodhead, et.al.). NE has great receiving options with Hernandez, Gronk (possibly not 100% for the SB?) and Branch. However, the Giants are just as explosive with Nicks, Cruz and Manningham. Both teams have struggled defensively in the regular season, but the Giants defense has superior advanced stats in the regular season in both rushing and passing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, in the playoffs, no defensive line has played as well as the Giants led by Pierre-Paul, Umenyiora and Tuck. The Pats defense have excelled in the red-zone, however, neither the Broncos nor the Ravens have the offensive attack that the Giants will offer. I think the Giants played the better competition and came out on top (with a little luck). NE was equally as lucky, but beating Denver and Balty at home is not as difficult as beating the Pack and Niners on the road. If you listen to the Giants players, they talk about belief -- belief that they will end up winning every game they play no matter what adversity they face. As I listen to these interviews, they sound an awfully like the Packers interviews of last year. The Giants have the momentum right now and I expect that momentum to continue in the Super Bowl. With a significant advantage on the defensive line in what turns out to be rather comparable offenses, playmakers and special teams, I think the pressure on Brady will be the difference in this game. If Gronk turns out to be less than 100%, that would be devastating to the Pats. You hear the term "team of destiny" and I just think the Giants have a little bit of that "mojo" on their side. The players believe right now and sometimes that belief is enough. I have this game set at a PK but the Giants are getting +3 with a number that is really starting to move. I am going to take the value on the ML in what I view as a very even matchup on a neutral field. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Giants ML for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Correlated Teaser

Giants (+9)/over (49) Risk 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I suspect the total might drop, but I also think the Giants line will drop. I think it's going to be hard to stop either offense in this game and even though it might be a little square, I am going to tease the over down with the Giants. With the precision of each passing game, these teams can put up points quick points. I think the Giants defensive line is going to be the difference in the game, but I don't think that means they are going to shut Brady down altogether. I see this one being a rather entertaining game in the 28-24 range with a Giants victory. My model has the total at 53 and I like this one to go over the total of 49. My thoughts on the Giants are above, so I am teasing NY with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[BHawksforLife]

LTA, why would you not tease the giants with the under if your model has them at 53? Wouldn't it make more sense to pick giants +9/under 61?

[Redscot]

NFL 2011-2012 Super Bowl

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

I think the Giants win this game based on superior defensive line play. These teams are very comparable but the Giants defensive line is playing at an extremely high level and I think the pressure they place on Brady will be the difference. If you look at the matchups, Brady is better than Manning but Manning has proved himself to be at that "level" of top 5 qb's. Advantage Pats, but not a huge advantage. NE's rushing game is more efficient but Giants' Bradshaw and Jacobs are a better 1-2 punch than what the Pats offer (no offense to Woodhead, et.al.). NE has great receiving options with Hernandez, Gronk (possibly not 100% for the SB?) and Branch. However, the Giants are just as explosive with Nicks, Cruz and Manningham. Both teams have struggled defensively in the regular season, but the Giants defense has superior advanced stats in the regular season in both rushing and passing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, in the playoffs, no defensive line has played as well as the Giants led by Pierre-Paul, Umenyiora and Tuck. The Pats defense have excelled in the red-zone, however, neither the Broncos nor the Ravens have the offensive attack that the Giants will offer. I think the Giants played the better competition and came out on top (with a little luck). NE was equally as lucky, but beating Denver and Balty at home is not as difficult as beating the Pack and Niners on the road. If you listen to the Giants players, they talk about belief -- belief that they will end up winning every game they play no matter what adversity they face. As I listen to these interviews, they sound an awfully like the Packers interviews of last year. The Giants have the momentum right now and I expect that momentum to continue in the Super Bowl. With a significant advantage on the defensive line in what turns out to be rather comparable offenses, playmakers and special teams, I think the pressure on Brady will be the difference in this game. If Gronk turns out to be less than 100%, that would be devastating to the Pats. You hear the term "team of destiny" and I just think the Giants have a little bit of that "mojo" on their side. The players believe right now and sometimes that belief is enough. I have this game set at a PK but the Giants are getting +3 with a number that is really starting to move. I am going to take the value on the ML in what I view as a very even matchup on a neutral field. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Giants ML for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Correlated Teaser

Giants (+9)/over (49) Risk 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I suspect the total might drop, but I also think the Giants line will drop. I think it's going to be hard to stop either offense in this game and even though it might be a little square, I am going to tease the over down with the Giants. With the precision of each passing game, these teams can put up points quick points. I think the Giants defensive line is going to be the difference in the game, but I don't think that means they are going to shut Brady down altogether. I see this one being a rather entertaining game in the 28-24 range with a Giants victory. My model has the total at 53 and I like this one to go over the total of 49. My thoughts on the Giants are above, so I am teasing NY with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Could not agree with your analysis more LTA! I particularly like the teaser (yeah, I know ) as I truly feel this game could come down Manning/Brady making plays down the stretch.....both guys are so clutch hard for me to pick a side. I DO agree that the Giants set themselves apart from the Pats with the superior D-line and that could prove to be the difference. Whilst the Giants do have great Mojo the Pats have the Myra Kraft angle (i know voodoo capping ) which just feels like they are destined to win.

[Love The Action]

LTA, why would you not tease the giants with the under if your model has them at 53? Wouldn't it make more sense to pick giants +9/under 61?

No....this could turn into a shootout late with both teams having great offenses and weak secondaries. I think there is a better chance of this going over 61 than under 49. You could easily see 21 points in the 4th quarter alone if its close as I expect and both teams are forced to play a fast pace.

[Love The Action]

Could not agree with your analysis more LTA! I particularly like the teaser (yeah, I know ) as I truly feel this game could come down Manning/Brady making plays down the stretch.....both guys are so clutch hard for me to pick a side. I DO agree that the Giants set themselves apart from the Pats with the superior D-line and that could prove to be the difference. Whilst the Giants do have great Mojo the Pats have the Myra Kraft angle (i know voodoo capping ) which just feels like they are destined to win.

I don't put too much stock in the dead wife angle. When the players are on the field, they won't be thinking about mrs kraft. I view that as more of a red herring.....

[Redscot]

I don't put too much stock in the dead wife angle. When the players are on the field, they won't be thinking about mrs kraft. I view that as more of a red herring.....

I agree, it really is something that after the fact they point to as a factor IF they win on the field. The only chance it could have a miniscule effect is in the preparation faze/overall team mojo/commitment. Once the game is on the field the players are just playing the game they have played their whole lives.

[Love The Action]

I agree, it really is something that after the fact they point to as a factor IF they win on the field. The only chance it could have a miniscule effect is in the preparation faze/overall team mojo/commitment. Once the game is on the field the players are just playing the game they have played their whole lives.

I wish the game was this weekend so we can keep the Giants momentum rolling. This layoff favors the pats a little more because the giants momentum could slow and the extra prep time for bellicheck. However, I just cant fade the hot team like last year. Defensive line play should make the difference so I am backing new york.

[odog11]

I wish the game was this weekend so we can keep the Giants momentum rolling. This layoff favors the pats a little more because the giants momentum could slow and the extra prep time for bellicheck. However, I just cant fade the hot team like last year. Defensive line play should make the difference so I am backing new york.

I agree with the analysis, though I favor taking the points. If Gronk is healthy the Patriots have a lot of time to prepare a game plan with a different weapons to plan with, unless Brady lays another egg I expect them to be around 30 points. I think question comes down to Pats D which is a real wild card at this point. They need to get pressure, but even if they can Eli has shown he can move in the pocket and still make plays. If he continues to do that like he has Giants will be in great shape.

[bleedtoledo]

Regarding Gronk, it's impossible for us to know exactly how healthy he'll be. However, at the very minimum, we can expect him to be used for blocking and a decoy in the passing game - at the very least.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Super Bowl

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

I think the Giants win this game based on superior defensive line play. These teams are very comparable but the Giants defensive line is playing at an extremely high level and I think the pressure they place on Brady will be the difference. If you look at the matchups, Brady is better than Manning but Manning has proved himself to be at that "level" of top 5 qb's. Advantage Pats, but not a huge advantage. NE's rushing game is more efficient but Giants' Bradshaw and Jacobs are a better 1-2 punch than what the Pats offer (no offense to Woodhead, et.al.). NE has great receiving options with Hernandez, Gronk (possibly not 100% for the SB?) and Branch. However, the Giants are just as explosive with Nicks, Cruz and Manningham. Both teams have struggled defensively in the regular season, but the Giants defense has superior advanced stats in the regular season in both rushing and passing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, in the playoffs, no defensive line has played as well as the Giants led by Pierre-Paul, Umenyiora and Tuck. The Pats defense have excelled in the red-zone, however, neither the Broncos nor the Ravens have the offensive attack that the Giants will offer. I think the Giants played the better competition and came out on top (with a little luck). NE was equally as lucky, but beating Denver and Balty at home is not as difficult as beating the Pack and Niners on the road. If you listen to the Giants players, they talk about belief -- belief that they will end up winning every game they play no matter what adversity they face. As I listen to these interviews, they sound an awfully like the Packers interviews of last year. The Giants have the momentum right now and I expect that momentum to continue in the Super Bowl. With a significant advantage on the defensive line in what turns out to be rather comparable offenses, playmakers and special teams, I think the pressure on Brady will be the difference in this game. If Gronk turns out to be less than 100%, that would be devastating to the Pats. You hear the term "team of destiny" and I just think the Giants have a little bit of that "mojo" on their side. The players believe right now and sometimes that belief is enough. I have this game set at a PK but the Giants are getting +3 with a number that is really starting to move. I am going to take the value on the ML in what I view as a very even matchup on a neutral field. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Giants ML for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Correlated Teaser

Giants (+9)/over (49) Risk 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I suspect the total might drop, but I also think the Giants line will drop. I think it's going to be hard to stop either offense in this game and even though it might be a little square, I am going to tease the over down with the Giants. With the precision of each passing game, these teams can put up points quick points. I think the Giants defensive line is going to be the difference in the game, but I don't think that means they are going to shut Brady down altogether. I see this one being a rather entertaining game in the 28-24 range with a Giants victory. My model has the total at 53 and I like this one to go over the total of 49. My thoughts on the Giants are above, so I am teasing NY with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Might add giants +3 as well since I can still get it at -110.....will post if I do.

[bleedtoledo]

LTA, was wondering your thoughts on the patriots running game plan. I took this prop: D. Woodhead UNDER 6.5 carries -155. Now it's at 5.5, the over was +130 but now is EV. I was going to middle, but missed out on 30 points. Still think it stays under though, he'll probably get 3-4, maybe 5 but I doubt it. Do you think pats will try to slow it down a bit - keep eli off the field while they can? Even so, you'd think majority of carries would go to BJGE, Ridley, Hernandez.

[Trivial]

LTA : I love your teaser.

I just locked in with Pinny (Teaser - NFL Same Game) for NYG +9, OVER 47. 1x to win 1x.

I also have NYG +3. I am too nervous about taking the ML, but best of luck to both of us.

Also have First Quarter UNDER 10.5. I think both teams start off very, very slow.

BOL. Triv.

[Donnie Brasco]

Kicking myself for not going with my model on the total. Thought it was high at 55.5. I had it set at 49.6, as i posted here. Dropped 1.5 since!

[Redscot]

LTA : I love your teaser.

I just locked in with Pinny (Teaser - NFL Same Game) for NYG +9, OVER 47. 1x to win 1x.

I also have NYG +3. I am too nervous about taking the ML, but best of luck to both of us.

Also have First Quarter UNDER 10.5. I think both teams start off very, very slow.

BOL. Triv.

GL Triv. I honestly think that is the best play for the game. I am still very torn about the side..... Will probably end up playing the teaser, and a smaller play on the Pats though.

[Trivial]

GL Triv. I honestly think that is the best play for the game. I am still very torn about the side..... Will probably end up playing the teaser, and a smaller play on the Pats though.

Thanks Red. I think the Under 10.5 is great value also for 1st quarter based on history. For any other game, I ignore history. For this game, I look at history more than any other. Very few superbowls have more than 9 points in the first quarter.

Also, I think OVER 14.5 for quarter 4 is tempting me also now. Same reasons.

Also eyeing that 2nd half will have more points than 1st half.

I think I will lock in the 14.5 today for 4th quarter.

GL.



LTA : sorry i dropped off your NBA thread. Even though I was making money, I cant stand watching the game of NBA and the money didnt make it fun. I will join again mlB soon. :-)

[815Sox]

Fun little prop bet: How many times will Payton Manning be shown? Line is set at 3 1/2

[Trivial]

Fun little prop bet: How many times will Payton Manning be shown? Line is set at 3 1/2

How do u even get that info to know if you won or lost if you did not watch the game? Where did u see this bet available? Sheesh - what a lame one. Like how long it will take to sing the anthem.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Super Bowl

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

I think the Giants win this game based on superior defensive line play. These teams are very comparable but the Giants defensive line is playing at an extremely high level and I think the pressure they place on Brady will be the difference. If you look at the matchups, Brady is better than Manning but Manning has proved himself to be at that "level" of top 5 qb's. Advantage Pats, but not a huge advantage. NE's rushing game is more efficient but Giants' Bradshaw and Jacobs are a better 1-2 punch than what the Pats offer (no offense to Woodhead, et.al.). NE has great receiving options with Hernandez, Gronk (possibly not 100% for the SB?) and Branch. However, the Giants are just as explosive with Nicks, Cruz and Manningham. Both teams have struggled defensively in the regular season, but the Giants defense has superior advanced stats in the regular season in both rushing and passing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, in the playoffs, no defensive line has played as well as the Giants led by Pierre-Paul, Umenyiora and Tuck. The Pats defense have excelled in the red-zone, however, neither the Broncos nor the Ravens have the offensive attack that the Giants will offer. I think the Giants played the better competition and came out on top (with a little luck). NE was equally as lucky, but beating Denver and Balty at home is not as difficult as beating the Pack and Niners on the road. If you listen to the Giants players, they talk about belief -- belief that they will end up winning every game they play no matter what adversity they face. As I listen to these interviews, they sound an awfully like the Packers interviews of last year. The Giants have the momentum right now and I expect that momentum to continue in the Super Bowl. With a significant advantage on the defensive line in what turns out to be rather comparable offenses, playmakers and special teams, I think the pressure on Brady will be the difference in this game. If Gronk turns out to be less than 100%, that would be devastating to the Pats. You hear the term "team of destiny" and I just think the Giants have a little bit of that "mojo" on their side. The players believe right now and sometimes that belief is enough. I have this game set at a PK but the Giants are getting +3 with a number that is really starting to move. I am going to take the value on the ML in what I view as a very even matchup on a neutral field. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Giants ML for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Correlated Teaser

Giants (+9)/over (49) Risk 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I suspect the total might drop, but I also think the Giants line will drop. I think it's going to be hard to stop either offense in this game and even though it might be a little square, I am going to tease the over down with the Giants. With the precision of each passing game, these teams can put up points quick points. I think the Giants defensive line is going to be the difference in the game, but I don't think that means they are going to shut Brady down altogether. I see this one being a rather entertaining game in the 28-24 range with a Giants victory. My model has the total at 53 and I like this one to go over the total of 49. My thoughts on the Giants are above, so I am teasing NY with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants (+3) 1x (Locked)

Go Giants! Good luck.

[Trivial]

Good luck LTA and all. I am locked for Giants +3, UNDER 10.5 Q1, OVER 14.5 Q4 and more points 2H + OT vs 1H.

Does anyone know a sportsbook that lets you parlay props? I am looking to parlay a few -1200 bets but can't find any letting you do this for obvious reasons.

[Redscot]

Man, if I could get 2 1/2............would change everything..........local doesn't let my buy off the 3 line....More I think about it (or is it drink about it ) I think the Pats get this one. Playing them -3 +110 atm.....would love to tease the Giants with the over but I think if one team wins by dbl digits it will be the Pats. If it dropped to 2 1/2 I would make the cardinal sin and cross the 0 with a Pats +3 1/2 over 47 tease. Barring that move to 2 1/2 looks like

Pats -3 +110 for a unit
Pats -3/over 53 parlay 1/2 unit for roughly 3/1

GL fella's, enjoy the game!

[No coincidences]

Man, if I could get 2 1/2............would change everything..........local doesn't let my buy off the 3 line....More I think about it (or is it drink about it ) I think the Pats get this one. Playing them -3 +110 atm.....would love to tease the Giants with the over but I think if one team wins by dbl digits it will be the Pats. If it dropped to 2 1/2 I would make the cardinal sin and cross the 0 with a Pats +3 1/2 over 47 tease. Barring that move to 2 1/2 looks like

Pats -3 +110 for a unit
Pats -3/over 53 parlay 1/2 unit for roughly 3/1

GL fella's, enjoy the game!

I couldn't agree more Red.

Good luck with your plays.

[Redscot]

I couldn't agree more Red.

Good luck with your plays.

Thanks bro , hope you have an enjoyable evening.

[Redscot]

Welker, gotta catch that! Man that would have put the Pats in the driver seat......

[No coincidences]

The Giants are on literally the luckiest run of postseason bounces I've seen in 30 years of watching sports.

[Dexter]

The Giants are on literally the luckiest run of postseason bounces I've seen in 30 years of watching sports.

that great manningham catch for 38 yards was a lucky bounce?

[No coincidences]

that great manningham catch for 38 yards was a lucky bounce?

Where did I say that?

12 men on the field on the forced fumble, fumble (Bradshaw I think) that bounces right back to them, Welker drops a pass that would've ended it, etc., etc.

[Dexter]

Where did I say that?

12 men on the field on the forced fumble, fumble (Bradshaw I think) that bounces right back to them, Welker drops a pass that would've ended it, etc., etc.

thought u posted right after that play...

[Redscot]

Where did I say that?

12 men on the field on the forced fumble, fumble (Bradshaw I think) that bounces right back to them, Welker drops a pass that would've ended it, etc., etc.

Yup, Welker makes that catch 9 out of 10 times, no sour grapes here though, I feel both teams played pretty tentatively, wasn't the most exciting SB ever, but at least it was close. Congrats LTA on the Giants win . Looking forward to a productive 2012-2013 season .

[Catchn_Picks]

Congrats LTA.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Super Bowl

2 - 1 = +1.2x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

89 - 81 = +1x

After a season of bad-beats, we catch a few breaks tonight to ensure a season in the black. I sure didn't make a lot of money in the NFL this season, but I refined my model and I definitely learned some things that will help for next season. This is only my 2nd year of full-time investing in the NFL and I expect a break-out year next season.

We will be back next season in this same thread, so feel free to bump it whenever you have something to contribute. We need to keep updated on free agent signings, draft news, etc. Good luck and thanks for a great season.

[Dexter]

NFL 2011-2012 Super Bowl

2 - 1 = +1.2x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

89 - 81 = +1x

After a season of bad-beats, we catch a few breaks tonight to ensure a season in the black. I sure didn't make a lot of money in the NFL this season, but I refined my model and I definitely learned some things that will help for next season. This is only my 2nd year of full-time investing in the NFL and I expect a break-out year next season.

We will be back next season in this same thread, so feel free to bump it whenever you have something to contribute. We need to keep updated on free agent signings, draft news, etc. Good luck and thanks for a great season.

Well done my man....We both had fully transparent winning threads in MLB, CFB, NFL and now we attack the NBA.

[Redscot]

NFL 2011-2012 Super Bowl

2 - 1 = +1.2x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

89 - 81 = +1x

After a season of bad-beats, we catch a few breaks tonight to ensure a season in the black. I sure didn't make a lot of money in the NFL this season, but I refined my model and I definitely learned some things that will help for next season. This is only my 2nd year of full-time investing in the NFL and I expect a break-out year next season.

We will be back next season in this same thread, so feel free to bump it whenever you have something to contribute. We need to keep updated on free agent signings, draft news, etc. Good luck and thanks for a great season.

Finishing in the black is a good thing . Really looking forward to next year bro.

Donnie, you had the under pegged from the get go, nice call . Congrats to you to Triv, nice call on that 1st Q under.

See you guys in NBA and then Baseball

[GChild]

Boom let's get them hard next year!!

[Trivial]

Thanks Red. Really got the 4th quarter wrong though.