LTA's NFL PLays

[dredmahawkus]

What does everyone like for MNF? Doesn't it seem like a NO/over tease is too easy?

dont they have a good chance of playing each other in the playoffs? if so what will they show each other before they play for real? way too many questions to play it! I am trying to get people to convince me to play the under.

see now before I hit post I thought to myself....in todays age what does it matter what they do against each other....they can just watch tape of the last 10 weeks to know how to play each other......so I am just clueless on this game! if this was a playoff game I would be all over NO and the over in a 35-24 game......but I am pretty sure if this was the playoffs NO would be a 9-12 point fav with the over under around 59.

[DoubleRedDragon]

I am totally befuddled on this one and it looks like a really tough game to call. Grasping for any type of info to digest.

I think I am very very slightly leaning an Under Total and NO -6.5 regardless of the history of closeness. But everything just seems like it could go either way so at the moment I'm fading while picking up more info/discussing.

I don't see ATL putting up more than 24 here.... and I'm not sure I even see NO putting up more than 30. I'm probably leaning on the under more than a side at this point.

I mean they could air it out too, but NO only goal is the super bowl. They may not be risking too many injuries here and might want to keep it safe.

[Overbettor]

Both teams were awful in the red last time around with something like 6-7 field goals between them. I personally do not feel comfortable betting on that happening again.

[Luv2Play2]

I have n.o in 2 pretty good sized teases and im not budging.. Saints -1.. Gl all

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

What does everyone like for MNF? Doesn't it seem like a NO/over tease is too easy?

Yes it deff does... ATL UNDER is my lean. ATL heavy imo!

Digging alot deeper here:
Saints are better at getting the opposing team of the field by 10% on 3rd down and their offense is better on 3rd down by about the same margin. The falcons have the advantage in to margin by 2 at +5 for the season vs -3. That stat may tell the story tonight. The saints prolific offense is 2nd in dvoa vs 5th for atl. The defensive dvoa favors the falcons tremendously at 5th vs 29th. Qb play obviously favors the saints. Rb play the sAints as well bc of depth and oline play where the saints are 1st in run blocking where the falcons are 30th. The falcons dline is much better at stopping the run however. And the secondary edge goes to the falcons as well. Tight end play is a wash, as are special teams. Having said all that i have this one set at -5.2/ 49.6. Gonna wait for the 7 and an uptick in the total which i fully expect to hit 53 to make 1x plays on each the falcons and the under. May also tease those sides for 1x. Goodluck gentleman!

Some good info here. Makes me feel slightly better about tonight. Over 80% of wagers are on N.O. and over 80% wagers on the Over. So being on the Vegas side (ATL UNDER) makes me feel somewhat good too.

[DoubleRedDragon]

Yes it deff does... ATL UNDER is my lean. ATL heavy imo!



Some good info here. Makes me feel slightly better about tonight. Over 80% of wagers are on N.O. and over 80% wagers on the Over. So being on the Vegas side (ATL UNDER) makes me feel somewhat good too.

Great, hey will you tell me where you can find that info about percentages of bets?

I'm going to be on ATL/Under with you guys.

[Donnie Brasco]

"

[Luv2Play2]

Okay okay

I have n.o in 2 pretty good sized teases and im not budging.. Saints -1.. Gl all

IVE ALWAYS BOUGHT INTO THE " BETT/OR TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY " ANGLE. BUT HEY, IM REALIZING IT SHOULD BE ALL ABOUT THE ALL AMERICAN DREAM !!! FUCING GREED.. TEASES PAY OUT 600, SO IF I CAN GET THE DIRTY BIRDS AT 7' IM THROWING HALF THAT WAY LOOKING FOR A MIDDLE..

[Donnie Brasco]

Saints will be without ingram and moore it looks like.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

"

[fecgp40]

The more I read and the more I think about it, Atl + 7 seems to be the play. + 7 is even money right now at 5 dimes reduced juice.

[MrXYZ]

I'm taking the under 53, going with my gut feel that it'll come down to 1 or 2 defensive plays that'll cash this one. Good luck today.

[BoutDemCowboys]

Bovada has it at ATL +7.5 thinking Im gonna take that and the under 53.5

[fecgp40]

Just teased Atlanta + 15/under 60 at -120 at 5 dimes. Seems like the best option. I definitely prefer under 60 to over 46. O/U has obviously moved up to 53.

[r1kkie]

Just teased Atlanta + 15/under 60 at -120 at 5 dimes. Seems like the best option. I definitely prefer under 60 to over 46. O/U has obviously moved up to 53.

Was thinking about this play also...

[rocketman778]

I was thinking about making a tease bet also. This is my first time making a sports bet though (i know i arrived late to the party), not sure if I should spend $10, $30 or even more. I only have $1600 in the bank though, and im cautious about betting too much. How much do you think I should bet? And how much are you guys going to bet for this game

[fecgp40]

Anytime before gametime is fine. Only bet what you can afford to lose. Period. It's entertainment. There are no guarantees. If you make a straight bet make sure you click on the reduced option under the football menu so you get a better price on your bet.

[2daBank]

I was thinking about making a tease bet also. This is my first time making a sports bet though (i know i arrived late to the party), not sure if I should spend $10, $30 or even more. I only have $1600 in the bank though, and im cautious about betting too much. How much do you think I should bet? And how much are you guys going to bet for this game?

Also on 5dimes, when is the deadline to submit a bet? Is it okay as long as it's before gametime?

doesnt matter how much anyone else is betting brother..stay within your means and only bet what you can afford to lose as any bet has the potential to lose no matter how strong it may be..bol

[r1kkie]

I was thinking about making a tease bet also. This is my first time making a sports bet though (i know i arrived late to the party), not sure if I should spend $10, $30 or even more. I only have $1600 in the bank though, and im cautious about betting too much. How much do you think I should bet? And how much are you guys going to bet for this game

How much are u willing to put out for gambling of those 1600? Then use maby 5-10% of it on a bet or something. Money management is very important in the long run.

[Redscot]

I was thinking about making a tease bet also. This is my first time making a sports bet though (i know i arrived late to the party), not sure if I should spend $10, $30 or even more. I only have $1600 in the bank though, and im cautious about betting too much. How much do you think I should bet? And how much are you guys going to bet for this game

My advice would be to start off betting $30-$40 a game more or less and strictly follow LTA's threads (NFL,NCAA Football, NBA) until you get your feet wet. DON'T freelance!. Play his plays ONLY. If you follow LTA you won't get in a big hole (he's human) and in the long term you will be in the positive. Every game does not need to be bet(looking at myself in the mirror here ). , limit your plays to LTA's for the time.

[rocketman778]

Did he post a bet for saints/falcons game? Looked at last page, didn't see it. I like the one tease bet fecgp40 posted, was thinking of betting $30 on that. What does atl +15 mean though, does it mean atlanta will win or lose within 15 points? Because I liked that possibility.

[Redscot]

Did he post a bet for saints/falcons game? Looked at last page, didn't see it. I like the one tease bet fecgp40 posted, was thinking of betting $30 on that. What does atl +15 mean though, does it mean atlanta will win or lose within 15 points?

LTA is not on this game Rocket, I would pass if I were you. GL

[r1kkie]

Did he post a bet for saints/falcons game? Looked at last page, didn't see it. I like the one tease bet fecgp40 posted, was thinking of betting $30 on that. What does atl +15 mean though, does it mean atlanta will win or lose within 15 points? Because I liked that possibility.

It means that when the game starts the standing is 15-0 to Atlanta.

[rocketman778]

hmm, i thought it had to do with not being over or under more than 15 points to the saints. Could you explain that a little more? I don't understand the reasoning for atlanta to start with 15 more points, does it mean the same thing? I guess it makes sense that if you add 15 points, atlanta would win if they were within 15 points to begin with.

I want to make a bet even if it's a $3 or $10 bet. Feel like i missed out on a lot of nfl games begin with as it just occurred to me to look into sports betting today.

[YouHave2outs]

u 59.5/falcons +14.5 5dimes pays -110. do that rocket

[r1kkie]

hmm, i thought it had to do with not being over or under more than 15 points to the saints. Could you explain that a little more? I don't understand the reasoning for atlanta to start with 15 more points, does it mean the same thing? I guess it makes sense that if you add 15 points, atlanta would win if they were within 15 points to begin with.

I want to make a bet even if it's a $3 or $10 bet. Feel like i missed out on a lot of nfl games begin with as it just occurred to me to look into sports betting today.

To lose that bet, +15 Atlanta. Saints need to win by more then 15 points.

[Donnie Brasco]

I was thinking about making a tease bet also. This is my first time making a sports bet though (i know i arrived late to the party), not sure if I should spend $10, $30 or even more. I only have $1600 in the bank though, and im cautious about betting too much. How much do you think I should bet? And how much are you guys going to bet for this game

3-5% of your bankroll is basically the rule of thumb for a bet. If the $1600 is your gambling $, then $50-$80. When a team is favored they are (-) points. The saints are expected to win by whatever the spread is. A tease gives u a chance to move that line a variety of points. In football 6pts is standard to get even money back.

[Donnie Brasco]

Falcons +7@+100, under 53 each 1x for me.

[Love The Action]

Lots of great comments and thoughts going on in here from Red, Donnie and everyone else. That's what I like to see. I'm passing on MNF tonight. I lean over, but not going to bet 53. Was expecting some buyback and was surprised not to see it. Probably means the over is the play, but I will pass. I also leaned to NO/Over tease.

We'll regroup and get ready for a big Week 17. Good luck to everyone tonight.

[r1kkie]

Falcons +7@+100, under 53 each 1x for me.

BOL, I went for +14/U60 teaser. Hope we will cash...

[rocketman778]

To lose that bet, +15 Atlanta. Saints need to win by more then 15 points.

Sorry about this, it's one of those things where I thought I had it all figured out, now im a bit confused again. Okay so, correct me if i'm wrong on these:

Saints -1 - is for saints winning by more than 1 point, so this covers just about every possibility of saints winning?
Saints -8 - this is for saints winning by more than 8 points, so can't win by a field goal
atanta +8 - this is for atlanta not losing by more than 8 points
atlanta +15 = this is for atlanta not losing by more than 2 touchdowns, but could this also be for atlanta winning if they stay within 15 points?

So what I'm confused by is, saints at -1, and atlanta at +15.. like both have saints winning right, so is -1 a safer bet but with a smaller payout? And also what is the difference between atlanta +8 and +15? Is +15 a safer bet with la smaller payout?

I ended up betting $35 on what youhave2outs said. But I'm hoping this bet allows for the chance for atlanta to win as well, but idk. Hope it wins, and I get off to a good start at least. Or else I'm going to wish I had waited until I more prepared to bet.

[Love The Action]

Still confused by the +15 atlanta thing, like how it relates to the spread. So atlanta starts out with +15, that means as long as their score + 15 is higher than the saints, the bet wins? So does that mean the falcons have to win or lose? Also for the other spread, if the falcons are +8, that means their score + 8 was higher than the saints. So basically it means the falcons were within 15 points of the saints than right or within 8 points right? Like they weren't down by more than 8 or 15.

Okay so saints -1 is valid for scores that are less than a touchdown or more with the saints winning. And -8 has to be greater than a touchdown for saints. But what about atlanta +15, that seems more confusing, like it's good for most scores except ones where saints blow them out. So why would someone pick saints -1 and not atlanta + 15?

Sorry about this, it's one of those things where I thought I had it all figured out, now im a bit confused again.

I ended up betting $35 on what youhave2outs said. Hope it wins, and I get off to a good start at least. Or else I'm going to wish I had more patience to wait till next weekend after doing more research

15 is the spread. So in this case, if Atlanta is +15 and the Saints won 28-21, then Atlanta only lost by 7 and 7 is within 15. Consequently, Atlana would "cover the spread" in this example. If the Saints win 28-0, then the Saints cover the spread because they won by more than 15.

In all seriousness, if you don't know the very basics such as this, you should not wager $1. Go read a couple books about sports investing such Weighing the Odds by King Yao and then move onto Conquering Risk. You wouldn't jump out of a plane without knowing how to pull a parachute, so you shouldn't place a wager unless you know how the spread works.

First and foremost, you need to understand the basics. Go to www.predictem.com and get some basic info there. After that, take a look at articles like this on why price and beating the closer is so important like this

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue83/king-yao-beat-closing-line.php

Good luck.

[r1kkie]

Sorry about this, it's one of those things where I thought I had it all figured out, now im a bit confused again. Okay so, correct me if i'm wrong on these:

Saints -1 - is for saints winning by more than 1 point, so this covers just about every possibility of saints winning?
Saints -8 - this is for saints winning by more than 8 points, so can't win by a field goal
atanta +8 - this is for atlanta not losing by more than 8 points
atlanta +15 = this is for atlanta not losing by more than 2 touchdowns, but could this also be for atlanta winning if they stay within 15 points?

I ended up betting $35 on what youhave2outs said. Hope it wins, and I get off to a good start at least. Or else I'm going to wish I had more patience to wait till next weekend after doing more research

Yes. But doesnt matter how much the Atlanta wins with if you have +X on them.
Just add or remove the handicap you played on to get the final result. Hope i didnt make it worse for you.

[r1kkie]

Damn they are scoring fast, should have stayed away from this game...

[Krazymojo]

stay confident im on it with u