LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

Man I hate STD's. Imagine what they did with there dicks 1,000 years ago. I would have dipped mine in a wendy's frostee by now had I not known I was lacto....

PP...."std" means standard deviation

I know you are joking, but I wanted to clarify.

[wguan2]

Hey LTA, been following your picks for a while now and I actually registered just to tell you thanks for your picks. I'm graduate student teaching Statistics down at LSU and wanted to know what books you used that you learned the most from in terms of creating models for capping? I'm obviously a beginner but I'm really interested in learning more about this. Thanks LTA! Good luck on the NBA season

[Pick'nParlays]

PP...."std" means standard deviation

I know you are joking, but I wanted to clarify.

Lol, ok I was just joking

Thanks for clarifying. Im sure the newbies were freaking out

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

49'ers/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that SF will only be playing on 4 days rest. However, other than that, this is a nice looking under play for me. Both defenses are playing at the top of their game right now and both ranked in the top 5 in the case of SF and top 10 in the case of Seattle in rushing and passing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. With Willis possibly coming back for SF, that will only help this dominate defense. On the other side of the ball, both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in most advanced efficiency stats. With Jackson nursing a sore chest, I think SF really puts a hurting on him. We've been burned in recent weeks playing Seahawks unders but this Saturday that streak will end. I have this one set at 35 and I am expecting a strong defensive game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Dolphins/Patriots over (49) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Will probably add another unit if it drops a bit. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #6

Raiders/Chiefs over (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Wanted to get 41, but this one started to move up so I am locking this one up and rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

49'ers/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that SF will only be playing on 4 days rest. However, other than that, this is a nice looking under play for me. Both defenses are playing at the top of their game right now and both ranked in the top 5 in the case of SF and top 10 in the case of Seattle in rushing and passing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. With Willis possibly coming back for SF, that will only help this dominate defense. On the other side of the ball, both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in most advanced efficiency stats. With Jackson nursing a sore chest, I think SF really puts a hurting on him. We've been burned in recent weeks playing Seahawks unders but this Saturday that streak will end. I have this one set at 35 and I am expecting a strong defensive game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Dolphins/Patriots over (49) 1x and over (48) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)

Writeup to come. I jumped the gun a little buying a unit at 49, but I like this one to sail into the 50's as I have it set at 52. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #6

Raiders/Chiefs over (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Wanted to get 41, but this one started to move up so I am locking this one up and rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #5 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

49'ers/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that SF will only be playing on 4 days rest. However, other than that, this is a nice looking under play for me. Both defenses are playing at the top of their game right now and both ranked in the top 5 in the case of SF and top 10 in the case of Seattle in rushing and passing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. With Willis possibly coming back for SF, that will only help this dominate defense. On the other side of the ball, both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in most advanced efficiency stats. With Jackson nursing a sore chest, I think SF really puts a hurting on him. We've been burned in recent weeks playing Seahawks unders but this Saturday that streak will end. I have this one set at 35 and I am expecting a strong defensive game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Dolphins/Patriots over (49) 1x and over (48) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)

Writeup to come. I jumped the gun a little buying a unit at 49, but I like this one to sail into the 50's as I have it set at 52. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #6

Raiders/Chiefs over (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Wanted to get 41, but this one started to move up so I am locking this one up and rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Broncos/Bills over (41) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Locked this one up as soon as I saw 41. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[ManBearPig]

Lol, ok I was just joking Thanks for clarifying. Im sure the newbies were freaking out

Actually I was...the funny part was it took me a second before I realized what you were talking about...slow much?

[Pick'nParlays]

Actually I was...the funny part was it took me a second before I realized what you were talking about...slow much?

lol bro no worries we all have our good days and bad days

[Love The Action]

Not a good matchup tonight. Liked Houstonat -5, but it never quite got there. I have an under lean on the total, but would like 41.

Perhaps a correlated teaser....

What does everyone like tonight?

[upscope]

buff simply cannot be trusted to score these days

[upscope]

Would buying .5 on the buf/den game be a good time to do so since 41.5 seems to be the best # right now & 41 being the single most important key #??

Same w/ kc/oak??

[BiffTFinancial]

Not a good matchup tonight. Liked Houstonat -5, but it never quite got there. I have an under lean on the total, but would like 41. Perhaps a correlated teaser.... What does everyone like tonight?

i like Colts TT under 17. Texans have excellent defense and young QB, will rely on running game, and Colts are a decent bet for less than 2 TDs in any given game.

[Madison]

Not a good matchup tonight. Liked Houstonat -5, but it never quite got there. I have an under lean on the total, but would like 41. Perhaps a correlated teaser.... What does everyone like tonight?

Correlated

[jas19illini]

Maybe Boise State -7 and Hou/Ind Under 48 teased?

[MrXYZ]

I like the over 40.

[Love The Action]

Would buying .5 on the buf/den game be a good time to do so since 41.5 seems to be the best # right now & 41 being the single most important key #??

Same w/ kc/oak??

Yes. I did not employ this strategy for oak/kc because I don't see this one being close. It's going to be a stinker or a big time score fest if orton and palmer find their rhythm.

[doin]

would someone please explain to me why there is ? about texans winning strate up tonight?

[YouHave2outs]

doubt i'm betting tonight's game unless i tease houston with the over, which would just be for action.


like that over in pats/dolphins for sure though

any idea why total dropped a point there?

[Love The Action]

doubt i'm betting tonight's game unless i tease houston with the over, which would just be for action.


like that over in pats/dolphins for sure though

any idea why total dropped a point there?

Weather. People freak out about a possibility of snow. However, I have seen NE put up over 30 points in much worse weather than we will see on saturday. GL.

[GChild]

Weather. People freak out about a possibility of snow. However, I have seen NE put up over 30 points in much worse weather than we will see on saturday. GL.

Yeah they squashed the bears last year here in Chicago in a snow storm!

[SlickRick1382]

On my phone right....a good website for key number data is www.cleanuphitter.com. GL

Thanks for the great website LTA

NFL Key Margins of victory (from most significant by occurrence to least): 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1 NFL Key Final Totals (from most significant by occurrence to least): 41, 37, 44, 51, 40, 43, 33, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 23, 55, 34, 38 Those in bold are you're highest in terms of STD and frequency

Thanks bud. I think you had posted it before too and I missed it. Much appreciated

[Delirium tremens]

I'm in Boston and it's 55 right now. Saturday is supposed to be a bit colder and very little if any snow. I like the over as well.

[cincyhammer]

LTA, take the Colts with the seven point teaser and the under (+14.5, 47.5). Think that will be the better call.

That is just how I see it.

[Redscot]

Sup my man, nice hit last night . Trying to figure which way to tease this NFL game with the under. Passing the 41,44,43 feels the right move,not sure if I wanna go Colts +14 or Texans -1. I think Texas has enough incentive for seeding that they win this. Leaning Texas-1/under 46 1/2. What you think bud?

[Krazymojo]

i was leaning colts +14 and the under

[Love The Action]

Sup my man, nice hit last night . Trying to figure which way to tease this NFL game with the under. Passing the 41,44,43 feels the right move,not sure if I wanna go Colts +14 or Texans -1. I think Texas has enough incentive for seeding that they win this. Leaning Texas-1/under 46 1/2. What you think bud?

I've decided the best play in this game is to PASS. Gun to my head, I woyld tease the texans and the under. Good luck!

[wguan2]

Qualitatively, I think taking Texans -1 is a better option seeing as they're still in the hunt for seeding. On top of that, I don't know how much you believe in this but if Indy wins here, they're tied with StL and Minne for the first overall draft pick. I don't believe in tanking for draft picks necessarily but I also wouldn't bet against it. Texans -1 under 46

[Redscot]

I've decided the best play in this game is to PASS. Gun to my head, I woyld tease the texans and the under. Good luck!

That is why your bankroll has a steady upwards climb and mine has peaks and valleys . Grabbed the Texans/under tease, but only for 1/2 unit, can't help myself. Gl with Boise,on that with ya .

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

49'ers/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that SF will only be playing on 4 days rest. However, other than that, this is a nice looking under play for me. Both defenses are playing at the top of their game right now and both ranked in the top 5 in the case of SF and top 10 in the case of Seattle in rushing and passing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. With Willis possibly coming back for SF, that will only help this dominate defense. On the other side of the ball, both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in most advanced efficiency stats. With Jackson nursing a sore chest, I think SF really puts a hurting on him. We've been burned in recent weeks playing Seahawks unders but this Saturday that streak will end. I have this one set at 35 and I am expecting a strong defensive game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Dolphins/Patriots over (49) 1x and over (48) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)

Writeup to come. I jumped the gun a little buying a unit at 49, but I like this one to sail into the 50's as I have it set at 52. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #6

Raiders/Chiefs over (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Wanted to get 41, but this one started to move up so I am locking this one up and rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Broncos/Bills over (41) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Locked this one up as soon as I saw 41. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Giants/Jets over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. I expect scoring to be up and defense to be scarce throughout the league this Saturday and the game in NY should be no different. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Qualitatively, I think taking Texans -1 is a better option seeing as they're still in the hunt for seeding. On top of that, I don't know how much you believe in this but if Indy wins here, they're tied with StL and Minne for the first overall draft pick. I don't believe in tanking for draft picks necessarily but I also wouldn't bet against it. Texans -1 under 46

Agreed

[Redscot]

Qualitatively, I think taking Texans -1 is a better option seeing as they're still in the hunt for seeding. On top of that, I don't know how much you believe in this but if Indy wins here, they're tied with StL and Minne for the first overall draft pick. I don't believe in tanking for draft picks necessarily but I also wouldn't bet against it. Texans -1 under 46

Good points, on it as well

[wguan2]

BOL

[jas19illini]

Ouch. My book has the Jets/Giants Over at 46.5, -145 to buy down to 45.

[wguan2]

Unbelievable. The roughing the passer calls in this game killed me. I don't even know what to say.

[Prize Marlin]

Orlovsky kiiiiiiiiidddddd!!!!! I said it all this time!!! The kid is a stud