LTA's NFL PLays

[rocketman778]

I understand how the spread works now. I know research is important, and i'm going to do that. But yeah teaser seemed like a good bet from the info I had so far. Only thing is I don't think it's going to be under 60 points since they are scoring so much already, but who knows. Could still win, maybe drew brees will get sacked a few times and not want to throw it so much ;D

[r1kkie]

stay confident im on it with u

Its hard when everything I touch goes down the drain.
Brews is killing the Falcon defense, 5 out 5 3rd downs conversions. The really need to find a way to stop them or its over...

Cant watch it anymore... frustrating

[rocketman778]

well it'll be a pleasure to lose with you guys. I guess it is over because it's already at a total of 38 points, so that means no more than 3 touchdowns from either team. I thought 60 points was a lot. Should have did the over at 53.

[Krazymojo]

ok 3 pts

[r1kkie]

ok 3 pts

Yeah but the Falcons cant stop the Saints so they will score 2 more TD unless they switch QB...

[rocketman778]

Just teased Atlanta + 15/under 60 at -120 at 5 dimes. Seems like the best option. I definitely prefer under 60 to over 46. O/U has obviously moved up to 53.

Crap, just the way you phrased it made me think it was a good idea... Originally I was going to go with the over I think because saints are at home etc. So mad, should have bet the over or not bet at all, or bet a bit less than what i did.

[fecgp40]

Crap, just the way you phrased it made me think it was a good idea... Originally I was going to go with the over I think because saints are at home etc. So mad, should have bet the over or not bet at all, or bet a bit less than what i did.

I thought it was a good idea too. I'm sorry you lost, but that's always a risk you take when you make a wager. The Falcons defense was almost non-existant last night. I thought they would play the Saints much tougher. Hindsight is always 20/20. It's very easy for me to say "Oh man... if I had just gone with what seemed so obvious and too easy (teasing the Saints -1/over 46) I would have won." You'll drive yourself crazy thinking like this. I made the wrong choice. It's just one wager. On to the next one.

[fecgp40]

Lots of great comments and thoughts going on in here from Red, Donnie and everyone else. That's what I like to see. I'm passing on MNF tonight. I lean over, but not going to bet 53. Was expecting some buyback and was surprised not to see it. Probably means the over is the play, but I will pass. I also leaned to NO/Over tease. We'll regroup and get ready for a big Week 17. Good luck to everyone tonight.

Once again proves why you're the man LTA. I really liked my teaser last night, as did many others... Epic fail.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16 Recap

4 - 5 = -3.8x

A really disappointing week to be sure. That loss on the Cowboys over killed us, but we could have broken even if Lions/Chargers didn't blow numerous scoring chances and the Packers/Bears didn't score 21 points in the last 5 minutes of the game. Oh well, that's why the NFL is so frustrating and fun all at the same time.

NFL 2011-2012 Season

84 - 74 = +3.2x

I was more excited for Week 16's plays than any other this year. We were on a roll and ready to take the season to the next level over the +10x mark. Now, we're back to the drawing board just a bit after a really disappointing week. This year could have been huge had we gotten just a few more bounces our way. There's no sense crying over spilled milk so it's time to get back to business and make this season fulfill our expectations. We have one week of regular season, plus four additional weeks of playoffs and the SB left to get that +10 to +15 goal and that is exactly what I plan on doing. GL

[SlickRick1382]

All good LTA. I have no doubt you'll get it. We thankfully have some NBA to focus on soon and can wait for a better season next year.

Hope you have a great New Year bud

[Pick'nParlays]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16 Recap

4 - 5 = -3.8x

A really disappointing week to be sure. That loss on the Cowboys over killed us, but we could have broken even if Lions/Chargers didn't blow numerous scoring chances and the Packers/Bears didn't score 21 points in the last 5 minutes of the game. Oh well, that's why the NFL is so frustrating and fun all at the same time.

NFL 2011-2012 Season

84 - 74 = +3.2x

I was more excited for Week 16's plays than any other this year. We were on a roll and ready to take the season to the next level over the +10x mark. Now, we're back to the drawing board just a bit after a really disappointing week. This year could have been huge had we gotten just a few more bounces our way. There's no sense crying over spilled milk so it's time to get back to business and make this season fulfill our expectations. We have one week of regular season, plus four additional weeks of playoffs and the SB left to get that +10 to +15 goal and that is exactly what I plan on doing. GL

That's the NFL.... Even when you are as good as.... LTA. Shake it off my man lets get some money in Week 17. Close strong.

[Love The Action]

Does anyone have any reliable information on Romo's hand? Can we depend on that hand to help on an over play?

I really think both offenses would light these defenses up if the qb's are healthy.

Has anyone ever punched a wall or something? How long did it take your hand to heal and would you have been able to throw a football on 6 days' rest?

[BoutDemCowboys]

IRVING -- Tony Romo didn't go through a full workout Wednesday and Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said his repetitions were limited. But Laurent Robinson remarked that when the quarterback threw the ball he seemed unaffected by the bruised right hand he suffered in the first quarter of the Cowboys' 20-7 loss to Philadelphia.

"I couldn't even tell he was hurt," Robinson said. "He had a lot of speed on the ball. He looked good."

Romo was seen wearing a glove over his right hand when the team began stretching. But soon thereafter he removed it as he led the offense through a series of drills.

Read the rest: http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/ar...binson-on.html

[bleedtoledo]

With that much swelling, it's not going to be 100. So if he gets hit again..

[BoutDemCowboys]

Yeah he needs to protect that hand! I'll tell you what if JPP, Tuck, or Umenyora (I think Osi will be back?) get to Romo consistantly, and I think they will with the Cowboys O'line...... It's gonna be a long game!

[Love The Action]

IRVING -- Tony Romo didn't go through a full workout Wednesday and Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said his repetitions were limited. But Laurent Robinson remarked that when the quarterback threw the ball he seemed unaffected by the bruised right hand he suffered in the first quarter of the Cowboys' 20-7 loss to Philadelphia.

"I couldn't even tell he was hurt," Robinson said. "He had a lot of speed on the ball. He looked good."

Romo was seen wearing a glove over his right hand when the team began stretching. But soon thereafter he removed it as he led the offense through a series of drills.

Read the rest: http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/ar...binson-on.html

Thank you!.

[SlickRick1382]

Does anyone have any reliable information on Romo's hand? Can we depend on that hand to help on an over play? I really think both offenses would light these defenses up if the qb's are healthy. Has anyone ever punched a wall or something? How long did it take your hand to heal and would you have been able to throw a football on 6 days' rest?

From experience it's a bitch to try to throw after "punching a wall" but it was awhile ago and I wasn't testing to see how long it took to be able to adequately throw a football. I'm not concerned with the hand not being 100%. Any pain they could just give him a shot for to get him through the game. Only concern is how "soft" he is and if he gets hit repeatedly by the Giants D-Line if he's going to be able to stay in the game....

[absolutkaos]

From experience it's a bitch to try to throw after "punching a wall" but it was awhile ago and I wasn't testing to see how long it took to be able to adequately throw a football. I'm not concerned with the hand not being 100%. Any pain they could just give him a shot for to get him through the game. Only concern is how "soft" he is and if he gets hit repeatedly by the Giants D-Line if he's going to be able to stay in the game....

Also have to consider it's gonna be cold outside at MetLife...down near freezing, with 30% chance of snow...injuries have a way of tightening up in colder weather a lot more quickly...

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Does anyone have any reliable information on Romo's hand? Can we depend on that hand to help on an over play?

I really think both offenses would light these defenses up if the qb's are healthy.

Has anyone ever punched a wall or something? How long did it take your hand to heal and would you have been able to throw a football on 6 days' rest?

I did punch an elevator door. Long story. And no it was broken, I was on that Hennessy!

[Love The Action]

From experience it's a bitch to try to throw after "punching a wall" but it was awhile ago and I wasn't testing to see how long it took to be able to adequately throw a football. I'm not concerned with the hand not being 100%. Any pain they could just give him a shot for to get him through the game. Only concern is how "soft" he is and if he gets hit repeatedly by the Giants D-Line if he's going to be able to stay in the game....

I think he's going to be fine. Thanks for your insight.

[hey buddy]

LTA, have you looked at the Hou/Ten game at all? I see a lot of value in the under but was curious to hear your thoughts. Thanks and GL

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 17

Play #1

Cowboys/Giants over (46) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Jets/Dolphins over (40.5) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

bol

[italianbandit]

Hey LTA, happy new year to you and your family. Glad to see you are doing well, look forward to baseball season. Best of luck.

[Ab34]

big week lets gooooo

[r1kkie]

Happy new Year!

LTA, Jets/Dolphins is at 39 at pinny now, whats your thought on the moment?

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, happy new year to you and your family. Glad to see you are doing well, look forward to baseball season. Best of luck.

Bandit ...nice to hear from you. Hope all is ell. Happy new year buddy

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 17

Play #1

Cowboys/Giants over (46) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Jets/Dolphins over (40.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Ravens/Bengals under (38.5) 1x (Locked)


No time for writeups today. Happy new year and good luck!

[Redscot]

Looking to close out the regular season with a bang today LTA .

Good lord, If I include the 3 I have 12 games eligible for the Wong's today . What to do....what to do.

[Love The Action]

Looking to close out the regular season with a bang today LTA .

Good lord, If I include the 3 I have 12 games eligible for the Wong's today . What to do....what to do.

Wow....not sure. All I can tell you is that I would tread lightly on the games with no meaning. You might end up seeing a lot of backups and unusual coaching maneuvers. Good luck buddy!

[Redscot]

Wow....not sure. All I can tell you is that I would tread lightly on the games with no meaning. You might end up seeing a lot of backups and unusual coaching maneuvers. Good luck buddy!

Totally agree here, gonna try and ween out the games that have no meaning. Tailing you all the way here today bud. WTF is up with the Jets line?

There are some interesting ML parlays out there today for lotto style plays.

Jets,Chargers,Chiefs,Hawks pays roughly 30-1 and the Cowboys and you get 75-1 add the Skins and you get 300-1. May have to throw a play or two out there with the peso account.

[Redscot]

LTA, I know your busy in the lab, when you get a chance would like your thoughts on the following. You know about my slow moving local.......I currently have Det. -3, 43......Pitt 35 1/2....Jets 41 (would you consider buy out here?)

Thanks bro.

[Love The Action]

LTA, I know your busy in the lab, when you get a chance would like your thoughts on the following. You know about my slow moving local.......I currently have Det. -3, 43......Pitt 35 1/2....Jets 41 (would you consider buy out here?)

Thanks bro.

I have to leave for a family party in an hour, so I have like no time (NBA plus NFL plus a family party makes for a hectic morning believe me). However, I will say that Detroit sure seems like the play. The line is currently -5.5 so I think that is a solid play -- pretty much a no-brainer considering the current Pinny number. Not sure about the total. With all the backups playing, my model is somewhat inapplicable for this game because it is predicated on season stats earned by players who will not suit up (mainly Rodgers).

I think the Jets under rush was based on Bush not playing and the comments by Rex Ryan stating that they are getting back to the running game and are not going to pass as much. However, with Moore playing so well for Miami and Marshall supposedly starting, I see no reason why Miami won't put up 21 points and the Jets are going to do whatever they need to do to win. Personally, I am sticking with my play but you know your team better than me. If you think a buyout is the right more, you should go with it. Good luck bud

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 17

Play #1

Cowboys/Giants over (46) 1x (Locked)

My model has this game at 49.5 so a play on the over has solid value. After locking it in, we've seen it go up to 47.5 and I think it continues to go up. I think we see a lot of offense through the air tonight as both secondaries are weakened. We are getting over a FG of value here and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Jets/Dolphins over (40.5) 1x (Locked)

I think the total dropped to the 39.5 range because of the Bush injury and comments by Rex Ryan promising to concentrate more on the run than the pass while on offense. I think those kind of comments mean very little on game day if the Jets get behind early. I have this game set at 43 and I like the over here at any number at 41 or better. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Ravens/Bengals under (38.5) 1x (Locked)

We have some possible wind issues, but this play is predicated on defense. The Balty offense is a completely different animal on the road where they average almost 50% less points than at home. Without Boldin, they won't have that top passing target. Both defenses are top 10 in advanced stats with Balty top 5. I think we see a classic divisional battle that stays under the number. I have this game set at 37 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Chiefs/Broncos under (38)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I think teams have caught up to the Tebow led offense of the Broncos and the Chiefs rushing defense has made huge leaps in the past 6 weeks vaulting that defense to top 10 against the rush in the advanced efficiency categories. At the same time, the Broncos defense has been coming up big and it's very difficult for opposing offense in Denver. I have this game set at 35 and we are getting a full FG of variance by buying the hook and covering the key number of 38 (much more important than people give that number credit for). I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Any thoughts on where a blow out could occur today....perhaps Baltimore blows out Cincy....or SF blows out the Rams?

Which game on today's dockets looks like it could be totally one-sided?