LTA's NFL PLays

[BigDan]

Yeah, he's all about making himself look like the hero. However, in this case, I don't think his mobility is all that great and I'm loving my under play right now.

no doubt, surprised the prick didnt get off the bus in a body cast..but yea no way he 100% ..thought under was the play all along as i suspect a lot of stalled drives for fgs..

[Love The Action]

no doubt, surprised the prick didnt get off the bus in a body cast..but yea no way he 100% ..thought under was the play all along as i suspect a lot of stalled drives for fgs..

I wouldn't put it past him...

[Donnie Brasco]

Total may close at 36.5! Great job bro!

[Love The Action]

Looks like game on!

[Donnie Brasco]

Ben looks bad!

[Love The Action]

Ben looks bad!

Just like Favre...Big Ben also likes to make people think he's hurt more than he really is....

[lonelynoob]

here we go boys .... lets keep it low with tough def ....

[Love The Action]

This is bullshit with the lights....let's go SF get your business in order. This under is looking great....really going to be pissed if this one gets suspended.

[lonelynoob]

kind of rather it get suspended if its a long delay .... that only hurts the defense i think ....

[Love The Action]

kind of rather it get suspended if its a long delay .... that only hurts the defense i think ....

Nah...we got through a whole quarter with only 6 points. This is set up as a low scoring game with Ben hurt and both defenses playing well. I see no reason why this hurts the defense more than the offense.

[BigDan]

kind of rather it get suspended if its a long delay .... that only hurts the defense i think ....

i would think it hurts Big dummies ankle sitting around more than anything..

[lonelynoob]

i hope so, this under was looking money !!!

[Dexter]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Writeup to come, but wanted to post it now before it moves. Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

we both got huge bets on the same game. big overs have burnt me too much - im done going heavy on NFL overs, but this should be a game in the high 50's with no weather to interfere...

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15 Recap

6 - 2 - 2 = +3.5x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

80 - 69 = +7x

Just keep on grinding....slowly but surely as we make our late season run.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Nice hit. I bet SF strong but reversed it with over... LTA is hot right now!

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Here's what we have locked in so far for Week 16. More to come. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

LTA, I love it when you post these plays early

[70kgman]

edit: Found your NBA thread.

[Redscot]

Rock on bro! Another victory. Coming on strong down the stretch.....

[aussieH]

70kg. He is already on the bulls to beat the lakers next week. Betting has already been suspended on my tote and I think I have missed some of the value. Sorry to drop this in your nfl thread

[brucethebear]

Betting has already been suspended on my tote and I think I have missed some of the value. Sorry to drop this in your nfl thread

I know your are with sports bet, but sporting still has it open at +2.5 if you have an account.

Stellar work again LTA. Gore rushing yards under also cashed, so it was a great day.

[GChild]

Was out last night, but never too late to give you my...

Boooooooom nice hit bro

[Pick'nParlays]

47.5 now TB/Car

[Love The Action]

Rock on bro! Another victory. Coming on strong down the stretch.....

[Love The Action]

Was out last night, but never too late to give you my...

Boooooooom nice hit bro

[Love The Action]

47.5 now TB/Car

Yep...that sucks. Not particularly worried though. I think you will see all these games I've locked in early fluctuate a little bit, but still beat the closing number as usual. I've been on fire anticipating line movement over the last 4 weeks as I have beaten the closer in all my plays over 75% of the time.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

49'ers/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that SF will only be playing on 4 days rest. However, other than that, this is a nice looking under play for me. Both defenses are playing at the top of their game right now and both ranked in the top 5 in the case of SF and top 10 in the case of Seattle in rushing and passing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. With Willis possibly coming back for SF, that will only help this dominate defense. On the other side of the ball, both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in most advanced efficiency stats. With Jackson nursing a sore chest, I think SF really puts a hurting on him. We've been burned in recent weeks playing Seahawks unders but this Saturday that streak will end. I have this one set at 35 and I am expecting a strong defensive game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[sleezy]

Hi Lta,

Just a quick question, when you post plays we all dont get the same lines as you so is there a range that your plays should be played...say for instance if you have a play for under 40 however outlets are offering 40.5 & 41 would still make it a play? thanks for your insight

[sleezy]

Hi Lta,

Just a quick question, when you post plays we all dont get the same lines as you so is there a range that your plays should be played...say for instance if you have a play for under 40 however outlets are offering 40.5 & 41 would still make it a play? thanks for your insight

Sorry what I meant was if outlets are offering 39.5 & 39

[Love The Action]

Hi Lta,

Just a quick question, when you post plays we all dont get the same lines as you so is there a range that your plays should be played...say for instance if you have a play for under 40 however outlets are offering 39.5 and 39 would still make it a play? thanks for your insight

I try to do that whenever my play is not dependent on a certain number and will try to do that more.

However, I always give you what my model projects as a fair outcome and that is what I use to predict line movement through the identification of "value" or the amount of variance between my projections and Vegas' line. Consequently, you can assume that the less the amount of remaining value from the number I wager, the less likely I am to make a play. You must also remember that in the NFL, all of my plays are based, in part, on manipulating key numbers, getting the best available number no matter when it was offered and beating closers at a high percentage. Therefore, the majority of time, I am making a play at a time I think the number is at its best it is going to be for the position I am taking and there is a calculated reason why I am taking a particular number. Because the numbers at which I wager are so important, it highlights the importance of getting the same number I do wherever possible. With that said, I will try to give more play ranges where possible moving forward .

[SlickRick1382]

LTA. I know it was posted prior, but can you post the NFL key numbers again. This way people have an idea up to where they should play a number. Ex. If you're playing something at Over 41 and it's now at 41.5 it's a bigger risk Than playing something at 40 and someone getting it at 40.5-41

[Love The Action]

LTA. I know it was posted prior, but can you post the NFL key numbers again. This way people have an idea up to where they should play a number. Ex. If you're playing something at Over 41 and it's now at 41.5 it's a bigger risk Than playing something at 40 and someone getting it at 40.5-41

On my phone right....a good website for key number data is www.cleanuphitter.com.

GL

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

49'ers/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that SF will only be playing on 4 days rest. However, other than that, this is a nice looking under play for me. Both defenses are playing at the top of their game right now and both ranked in the top 5 in the case of SF and top 10 in the case of Seattle in rushing and passing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. With Willis possibly coming back for SF, that will only help this dominate defense. On the other side of the ball, both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in most advanced efficiency stats. With Jackson nursing a sore chest, I think SF really puts a hurting on him. We've been burned in recent weeks playing Seahawks unders but this Saturday that streak will end. I have this one set at 35 and I am expecting a strong defensive game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Dolphins/Patriots over (49) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Will probably add another unit if it drops a bit. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

[ManBearPig]

NFL Key Margins of victory (from most significant by occurrence to least): 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1
NFL Key Final Totals (from most significant by occurrence to least): 41, 37, 44, 51, 40, 43, 33, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 23, 55, 34, 38

Those in bold are you're highest in terms of STD and frequency

[Pick'nParlays]

NFL Key Margins of victory (from most significant by occurrence to least): 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1
NFL Key Final Totals (from most significant by occurrence to least): 41, 37, 44, 51, 40, 43, 33, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 23, 55, 34, 38

Those in bold are you're highest in terms of STD and frequency

Man I hate STD's. Imagine what they did with there dicks 1,000 years ago. I would have dipped mine in a wendy's frostee by now had I not known I was lacto....