LTA's NFL PLays

[Donnie Brasco]

The jets blow donkey hose!!
I am on chargers +2 tonight. Like the live dog at home. After denver goes down it will only stoke their playoff hopes. Think they may be rounding into form. The line move scared me moving to +3, but when 5dimes went back to 2 and pinny sitting at +1with the pub on balty, it upped my confidence. Good luck boys, nice day with totals LtA!

[Love The Action]

pats over, eagles over, chargers over ..... lets get it !!!!

2 down and 1 to go .... nice cash with eagles over / pats over boys !!!

Just to clarify, I don't have any play on tonight's game yet. GL

[Love The Action]

this guy from stufeiner.com just called me try to sell me picks gave me ravens as their free pick said they have inside info on the game tonight for the total seemed like they were leaning under the way he said the Ravens D will be playing tonight

That means it's Chargers and the over for sure

[Krazymojo]

lol

[Krazymojo]

come on how do u not like the ravens here

[str8killa]

Any plays tonight LTA??

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked) WINNER

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked) PUSH

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked) WINNER

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Falcons (-11.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This is a bad number as I should have gotten 11 earlier in the week, but I see no reason to buy the hook down to 11 as that is not a key number I am worried about in this game. Bottom line is that the Jaguars are mash unit that scored 3 touchdowns last week on defense and special teams to beat the Bucs. I don't expect any such success against the Falcons. To make matters worse, the Jags are playing their 3rd game in 11 days thanks to a scheduling quirk and this game is in Atlanta where we all know the Falcons have dominated under Matty Ice. This is a huge spot for the Falcons to come out and stomp on someone in front of a national audience who has pretty much written them off this year after a slow start. The Falcons have to win this game to stay in the playoff race so I just don't see how we can have a let down on Thursday. The stats show a huge advantage on offense in favor of the Falcons and despite some favorable stats on defense for the Jags, those high ratings were earned by a defense that is now mostly on IR. I just don't see how anyone can back the Jags in this horrible situational spot. I have Falcons set at -14 at home in this game and I wish I would have gotten -11. However, I would play this game at -12 and maybe even a little higher. This is the first double digit favorite I have played all year and I generally look to avoid such plays. However, in this case, the situational spot is so bad for the Jags and so good for the Falcons, that I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Falcons for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Steelers/49'ers under (39) 1x (Locked)

I know about the injuries to the Steelers defense and to SF's Patrick Willis. However, Big Ben is banged up as well and this one sets up very similarly to the Balty/SF under we cashed on the Thanksgiving. Both defenses are top 10 in both rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR% and SF is actually top 5 and even #1 in many of those defensive stats. In addition, both defensive schemes allow for the younger backups to excel where needed. Pit's LB's crew is bit banged up, but I don't expect too much of a dropoff on Monday. On the other side, even though Willis will probably not play, the rest of that great defense is healthy. I am jumping on this one now because I just don't see a better number being available closer to the game. If Ben is announced out, the total will drop even further down the 37 range where I have it set. Even though I have it set at 37, I expect this one to be much lower scoring with a classic 17-13 type game. Some books don't even have this game up on the board because of the questions marks, but I am assuming Willis is out and Ben plays. Assuming Ben plays, however, he will not be at full strength or have his full mobility which makes him so dangerous. Therefore, I don't think it matters and the under is the play here. As I said above, I have this one set at 37 with Ben playing. If he is announced out, this one will steam lower. Regardless, I don't see this one getting above 39 so I am locking it in now. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and may add some more to this one down the line depending on the final injury report. Good luck.

Play #7

Seahawks/Bears under (36)(-120) 2x (Locked)LOSS

Another game where I feel buying the hook is necessary, although I recognize this is not a long term winning proposition. However, in select situations, this is a wise move. Those situations depend on key numbers. In this game, I could have actually had 36 without buying the hook. However, I was waiting for 36.5 in order to buy up to one of the most important key numbers of 37. However, it never got there and I missed the available 36's at a ten cent line. The chance to get 37 never materialized, but I'm not going to risk losing on a final score of 36 because that is the 20th most common final score. In late season NFL when the total lines are as sharp as ever, I'm not taking any chances. In this game, you have two top ten defenses and really top 5 defenses in all advanced statistical categories. These defenses are very statistically successful and impressive and I see no reason why they don't dominate today. This is true because we also have two really poor offenses that are ranked bottom 1/3 of the league. However, those numbers were before the injuries that have seen Cutler, Forte and Sydney Rice not play in this game. I have this game set at 35 with those players playing according to my model. When you factor in a game without those 3 players, I put this closer to 33. I think we could easily see this game end 17-10 or be that type of game. This game sets up as a classic NFL smashmouth game with two offenses that highlight the run against two top 5 defenses against the run. The quarterbacks are Hanie and Jackson who are horrible with respect to accuracy. Therefore, my sole concerns as far as this game going over are special teams returns with Washington or Hester and pick 6's since both defenses are so aggressive and both quarterbacks are so bad. Nevertheless, as long as we stay away from those types of plays, this should stay in the 20''s and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #8

Packers/Chiefs over (46) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I finally convinced myself that Orton can score 14-17 points off this GB defense, if not a little more. I think this is a big change from the Chiefs offense we have seen with Palko and the receivers must be licking their chops to at least have an NFL caliber qb behind center. Bowe, Breaston and Baldwin are solid if you can get them the ball and I expect the Chiefs to open it up today. After all, they have nothing to lose. GB is GB with or without Jennings and I see no reason why you don't see the Pack score their usual 28-35. Their advanced efficiency numbers are off the charts. I have this game set at 45, so there's not a ton of value under my model. However, my model only takes into account stats and not the change in qb. Therefore, I think you add an Orton led to Chiefs to the equation -- now that he has had enough time to learn the playbook -- and I think you see a game where the Chiefs can answer some of the standard GB scores. I think we see this game make it over the total in the 47-50 range. Therefore, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Bengals (-7) 1x (Locked) PUSH

There's a reason this one broke 7 and never looked back. Despite the question marks with the Bengals being a young team on the road, I see them rolling today with Clemons behind center for STL. I am rolling with the Bengals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Ravens/Chargers over (44) 1x (Locked)

Wanted to get 43, but this is not going to materialize. I'm going to jump on the 44 before this one goes up. Pinny just starting juicing the over, so I can see this one going up soon. I just think the Chargers have hit December and the true strength of their offense is starting to shine now that Gates and the speed on the outside is healthy. The Chargers need to worry about the #1 defense in most advanced stats in facing this Balty team, but I think they find success at home. Balty is a different team on the road than at home where they average 20 points less. Nevertheless, as strong as Balty is on defense, SD is that weak. I don't see SD stepping up to stop Rice, Flacco and that deep passing attack to the speed on their outside. I have this one set at 45.5, but I think there is a better chance of this one going over than that number would indicate. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[killersweet]

Any leans on the side LTA?

[Love The Action]

come on how do u not like the ravens here

I think this is a real sneaky spot for the Chargers to win this game. I see no value in the side tonight as I have the Ravens winning this 23.5 to 22. I like the over better because I could see both teams hitting 24 or more. The Ravens aren't the best road team in the world. Just my opinion, but I'm laying off the side.

Good luck in whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

Any leans on the side LTA?

Nah, like I said above, I would not be surprised to see the Chargers win, but I really don't see any value in playing the side here. I think the better play is the over. GL.

[Krazymojo]

teased it bol

[Dave88]

Thanks for the insights LTA.
Taken over 43.5 parlay with the Ravens -2.5.
BOL everyone.

[Love The Action]

Missed chip shot field goal. Not the way I was hoping to get started. Man, it would have been nice to get that 3 there at least.

[GChild]

We got this buddy don't worry

[lonelynoob]

Just to clarify, I don't have any play on tonight's game yet. GL

i knew what you were doing before you did .... hahaha .... gl lt ... lets get it

[Love The Action]

i knew what you were doing before you did .... hahaha .... gl lt ... lets get it

Let's get it...

[GChild]

Boom

[Albinorhino]

Harbaugh!

[Love The Action]

Baltimore needs to punch a quick score in here. I really don't want that missed field goal to come back to bite us.

[lonelynoob]

sd needs to punch it in before the half ... we need 20+ on the board ... lets go bolts !!

[Love The Action]

I was expecting at least one or two big plays from Rice against this SD defense. Still plenty of time, but both teams like to milk the clock and are trying to do just that tonight. We need to get at least 7 more points before halftime.

[lonelynoob]

boom !!!! excellent

[GChild]

Boom

[Love The Action]

Why didn't Baltimore call a timeout after 1st and goal. That was horrible time management by Harbaugh. No matter what the Chargers were going to get 4 shots at a score, so why not use those THREE timeouts you have and try to get yourself a field goal in case the Chargers scored...just like they did. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

[Love The Action]

See, now it comes back to bite Balty. They get the ball with 19 seconds and no time for anything. If they would have called time out they would have like 40 seconds now to work with. WTF was Harbaugh doing.

[Love The Action]

Nice...two more td's with the extra points and we cash this

[GChild]

2 more baby

[SlickRick1382]

That means it's Chargers and the over for sure

As soon as I saw him post that I said the same exact things, lmao

Plus I already liked the Chargers to get this win.

Good call and congrats on a nice day with the Jets and Pats over

[RAVENSFAN]

As soon as I saw him post that I said the same exact things, lmao

Plus I already liked the Chargers to get this win.

Good call and congrats on a nice day with the Jets and Pats over

Same! Ravensfan and all loaded up 2units on each and also a 1unit teaser SD +8, over 38.5

[lonelynoob]

hate relying on flacco for anything, but its going to flacco that gets us over .... lets go you bum !!!

[lonelynoob]

cmon sd !!!!! punch it in !!!!!

[RAVENSFAN]

lol here we gooooooooooooo

[Love The Action]

Another 30 yard missed field goal which would have ensured us the push

[lonelynoob]

thats 6 off the board already ... wtf ??!!

[RAVENSFAN]

yeah now 2 fgs if they even make it comin up to land US the push and crush everyone else's 45s and 45.5s as it steamed up late lol. LETS GOOOOO