ScottLocke's LOCKs(ok not quite locks)

bobbyk1133 · 11-23-10, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Dallas' last four thanksgiving games they have won and covered, with the scores of 38-10, 34-3, 34-9 and 24-7. So they play very well on Thanksgiving. Plus they've been improving under Jason Garrett. They've had the talent all along to be good, they've just been underachieving. Either way, its only a 2unit bet, because you can never be sure which Dallas team will show up.

I don't understand how previous thanksgiving games are relevant when you have a new coach, backup QB, and a horrible record. Also consider the opponent. DAL wasn't handed a layup this year. Brees is going to torch that secondary.

ScottLocke · 11-23-10, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

I don't understand how previous thanksgiving games are relevant when you have a new coach, backup QB, and a horrible record. Also consider the opponent. DAL wasn't handed a layup this year. Brees is going to torch that secondary.

Ok, we'll see.

ScottLocke · 11-24-10, 03:47 AM

adding;

St Louis Rams +4... 2.2U to win 2U

bobbyk1133 · 11-24-10, 04:00 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

adding; St Louis Rams +4... 2.2U to win 2U

Nice call. We're on same page with SD too. At least you will be 2-1 this week.

J/K. GL this week.

ssk13809 · 11-24-10, 04:06 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Ok, we'll see.

He's right. Dallas still has a horrible secondary, which Drew Brees will destroy just like he destroyed Seattle last week. Expect Saints to score 30+. On the other hand, Saints have one of the best pass defenses and have been playing good defense in general for the past 3 weeks, holding opponents to 10points/game. And don't forget, Dallas was in a close game with Detroit throughout and their Special Teams bailed them out not Kitna.

It's a VERY tough cover for Dallas. The best shot for you they have is a FG loss where they keep it close all game.

ScottLocke · 11-24-10, 04:06 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Nice call. We're on same page with SD too. At least you will be 2-1 this week.

J/K. GL this week.

Haha i'd gladly take 2-1! I wouldn't count the Cowboys out tho, its gonna be a good game at the very least I expect. I have a few more, not so worried about line movement in the rest though.

ScottLocke · 11-24-10, 06:55 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

He's right. Dallas still has a horrible secondary, which Drew Brees will destroy just like he destroyed Seattle last week. Expect Saints to score 30+. On the other hand, Saints have one of the best pass defenses and have been playing good defense in general for the past 3 weeks, holding opponents to 10points/game. And don't forget, Dallas was in a close game with Detroit throughout and their Special Teams bailed them out not Kitna.

It's a VERY tough cover for Dallas. The best shot for you they have is a FG loss where they keep it close all game.

I wouldn't say the Saints have one of the best pass defenses, you gotta look beyond the stats, playing Carolina 2x, 49ers(with Alex Smith), Cleveland, Arizona and even Seattle, those 6 teams are all bad passing teams, so New Orleans pass defense stats are certainly skewed in their favor. They even let Matt Hasselbeck throw for 366 yards on them with a way below average receiving core IMO. Dallas is the first top 10 pass offense they will be playing all year, so we'll see just how good they are. I think Dallas surprises a lot of people here.

bobbyk1133 · 11-24-10, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

I wouldn't say the Saints have one of the best pass defenses, you gotta look beyond the stats, playing Carolina 2x, 49ers(with Alex Smith), Cleveland, Arizona and even Seattle, those 6 teams are all bad passing teams, so New Orleans pass defense stats are certainly skewed in their favor. They even let Matt Hasselbeck throw for 366 yards on them with a way below average receiving core IMO. Dallas is the first top 10 pass offense they will be playing all year, so we'll see just how good they are.

I think this is a great point and a good example of why its important to look at stats a little deeper. But keep in mind that NO defense was without Porter/Sharper for most of the season. Having those guys back full time will allow Williams more flexibility in his pressure schemes. No doubt DAL have the players to put up nice numbers, but we are talking about Kitna. I think it's asking a little too much for him in this spot. I think he gets picked a couple times tomorrow as he tries to keep up with Brees.

ssk13809 · 11-24-10, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

I wouldn't say the Saints have one of the best pass defenses, you gotta look beyond the stats, playing Carolina 2x, 49ers(with Alex Smith), Cleveland, Arizona and even Seattle, those 6 teams are all bad passing teams, so New Orleans pass defense stats are certainly skewed in their favor. They even let Matt Hasselbeck throw for 366 yards on them with a way below average receiving core IMO. Dallas is the first top 10 pass offense they will be playing all year, so we'll see just how good they are. I think Dallas surprises a lot of people here.

And? You're acting like Kitna is a good QB. They held Matt Ryan to 228 yard and Big Ben to less than 200 yards as well.

ScottLocke · 11-24-10, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by ssk13809

And? You're acting like Kitna is a good QB. They held Matt Ryan to 228 yard and Big Ben to less than 200 yards as well.

Well I don't know if you've noticed, but the Steelers pass offense has also been in the bottom 10 this year, some of thats cause of before big Ben started playing but most of it is because their oline is so bad that they have trouble getting their passing game going... And its not like Atlanta's pass offense has been great this year either. Like I said, they haven't played anybody as good as Dallas' pass offense yet.

Yeah Kitna sucks, but with Dallas' receivers he just has to take what the defense gives him and not force anything. I don't know if you've watched Dallas' games with Kitna, but he's actually done very well, almost all of his INTs were off dropped balls by the WRs and they weren't even his fault. Dallas underachieved all year, so I don't think you can even put too much stock into their stats. Their season was over 3 weeks ago and they are starting to play much better. This game is basically their superbowl this year, so I think they will show up, and when they do, they are def talented enough to beat New Orleans.

ssk13809 · 11-24-10, 06:56 PM

at Dallas's pass offense being better than Falcon's

All I can now advice is watch the game tomorrow

ScottLocke · 11-24-10, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by ssk13809

at Dallas's pass offense being better than Falcon's

All I can now advice is watch the game tomorrow

Wow if u don't agree. Its not even that close that it could even be debatable.

bobbyk1133 · 11-25-10, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Ok, we'll see.

Looks like we were both right.

I had NO at -3 opening line so I got the push, but congrats on the win.

ScottLocke · 11-25-10, 08:13 PM

Well got the W with the Cowboys after seeing them play one of the ugliest 1st quarters ever. I don't know what it is about them, they have the talent to beat anybody, but they can also lose to the worst team in the league. They really should have won straight up, that Roy Williams fumble at the 10 yard line with 3 mins left is just pathetic. Anyway, the Cowboys are prob a good fade vs the Colts next week if we can get a reasonable line since they obv put a lot into this game and its gonna be tough to rebound from this.

ScottLocke · 11-25-10, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Looks like we were both right.

I had NO at -3 opening line so I got the push, but congrats on the win.

Haha yeah, I think we both are thinking we got a little lucky, I think its over in the 1st quarter, you prob thought it was over when Roy Williams makes the catch to pretty much seal it if he doesn't fumble.

ScottLocke · 11-26-10, 12:49 AM

Final week #12 card

Dallas Cowboys +4... 2.2U to win 2U

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5... 2.2U to win 2U
Green Bay Packers +2... 3.3U to win 3U
St Louis Rams +4... 2.2U to win 2U
Seattle Seahawks +1... 2.2U to win 2U
San Diego Chargers +3... 4.4U to win 4U

POTW
Washington Redskins -1... 5.5U to win 5U

Have a couple teams that would be good for teasing so might add on a teaser to this. Not sure yet.

ScottLocke · 11-26-10, 11:31 PM

So Washington is +1 now, really not understanding this line movement. What am I missing? I don't see how its possible that sharps could be pounding Minnesota to cause this line movement.

Dr.Money · 11-26-10, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

So Washington is +1 now, really not understanding this line movement. What am I missing? I don't see how its possible that sharps could be pounding Minnesota to cause this line movement.

i saw this too and wondered if a trap is being layed before us.

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 12:06 AM

Yeah its confusing, Washington does have some injury problems so thats the only reason I could see for the line movement. Doesn't really affect my opinion on the game, I still like Washington this week, its just a bit confusing.

Stevedore · 11-27-10, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Final week #12 card

Dallas Cowboys +4... 2.2U to win 2U

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5... 2.2U to win 2U
Green Bay Packers +2... 3.3U to win 3U
St Louis Rams +4... 2.2U to win 2U
Seattle Seahawks +1... 2.2U to win 2U
San Diego Chargers +3... 4.4U to win 4U

POTW
Washington Redskins -1... 5.5U to win 5U

Have a couple teams that would be good for teasing so might add on a teaser to this. Not sure yet.

Love your GB and Rams plays. The Rams are due to break through on the road covering 3 out of their last four away. I actually like them on the ML but will probably chicken out and take the points.

GB is obviously my team and I know them inside and out. Made only my second play of the year on them last week against the Vikings. Just couldn't play them earlier with all their injuries, 6 starters on IR and 12 total gone for the year. But right now, nobody is playing better ball in the league IMO. A +106 point differential tops in the league by 36 points would bear this out. I think they match up very well against the Falcons. I see them holding Turner to under 75 yards and making them one dimensional turning Matthews and Co. loose on an average O-line. The Falcons like to go no-huddle and speed teams up, but against the Packers 3-4 scheme, I see them having problems just like they did against Pittsburgh. They did well against the Ravens because Baltimore's corners are weak and small, GB's aren't.
Williams is having a pro bowl year and making everybody forget about Al Harris, and Woodson is just Woodson, great.

On offense I see GB making hay in the redzone just like Flacco did against Atlanta's small corners. I actually wasn't that impressed with Atlanta's win over the Ravens at home two weeks ago. Up two scores in the fourth, they and their defense couldn't close the deal and needed Matty Ice to bail them out late. Good spot for the Pack here I say and it looks like the line is moving in the right direction with the SQUARE money coming in on the ATL.

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 01:36 AM

Yeah agree, but as far as I know, a lot of public money is coming in on Green Bay not Atlanta. I do this this is where Atlanta finally gets there first home loss in awhile here. Despite winning at home this here they have not looked so great and have had a bunch of close calls. Green Bay has also been a great road team the past few seasons, so I agree this is an excellent spot for them to be in. If Woodson can shut down Roddy White which is probably asking too much of him then I don't think Atlanta will have a chance.

bobbyk1133 · 11-27-10, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by Stevedore

Good spot for the Pack here I say and it looks like the line is moving in the right direction with the SQUARE money coming in on the ATL.

Actually it was sharp $$ that pushed the line from a PK to -2 for ATL. Take GB at yur own peril.

You may know your own team inside and out, but ATL is the real deal at home. They should be favored by at least 4, so I'm more than happy to take them under 3.

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Actually it was sharp $$ that pushed the line from a PK to -2 for ATL. Take GB at yur own peril.

You may know your own team inside and out, but ATL is the real deal at home. They should be favored by at least 4, so I'm more than happy to take them under 3.

At least 4?!? Come on man... I think its reached the point where Atlanta is over valued at home by the sharps.

bobbyk1133 · 11-27-10, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

At least 4?!? Come on man... I think its reached the point where Atlanta is over valued at home by the sharps.

How do you figure that? If home field is worth 2.5-3 and they have an edge matchup wise.....

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 03:51 AM

I disagree that they have a edge matchup wise... I don't think Atlanta is as good as their record indicates, but that's just my opinion, and I actually don't think they matchup well with Green Bay at all. I think Green Bay throws all over their weak secondary, and Atlanta has a pretty weak pass rush and thats pretty much the only way to slow down Aaron Rodgers IMO. SO doesn't look like that will happen. Atlanta has a strong run defense... well that's a worthless strength to have in this game cause Green Bay doesn't run the ball.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay has a lockdown corner in Woodson who should limit Roddy White their biggest weapon. Gonzalez and Jenkins are gonna have to step up big for Atlanta to win IMO and Jenkins doesn't scare me at all. At least Atlanta can protect the QB which will certainly help against a team like Green Bay.

I do agree that home field is worth 3 points, but with you saying they should be AT LEAST -4 insinuates that Atlanta would be at least -1 on a neutral field and I don't agree with that at all.

bobbyk1133 · 11-27-10, 04:10 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

I disagree that they have a edge matchup wise... I don't think Atlanta is as good as their record indicates, but that's just my opinion, and I actually don't think they matchup well with Green Bay at all. I think Green Bay throws all over their weak secondary, and Atlanta has a pretty weak pass rush and thats pretty much the only way to slow down Aaron Rodgers IMO. SO doesn't look like that will happen. Atlanta has a strong run defense... well that's a worthless strength to have in this game cause Green Bay doesn't run the ball. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay has a lockdown corner in Woodson who should limit Roddy White their biggest weapon. Gonzalez and Jenkins are gonna have to step up big for Atlanta to win IMO and Jenkins doesn't scare me at all. At least Atlanta can protect the QB which will certainly help against a team like Green Bay. I do agree that home field is worth 3 points, but with you saying they should be AT LEAST -4 insinuates that Atlanta would be at least -1 on a neutral field and I don't agree with that at all.

You ignored how much ATL control a game. They are 1st in league on 3rd down offense, have the most pts in the league from long drives, and have more avg completed plays than any other team. Rodgers will need to have one of his best games of the season to pull this one out..

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 04:23 AM

Well, we will see on Sunday then... I think Matt Ryan needs his best game of the season to pull this out, Green Bay has allowed 10 points total in there last 3 games.

bobbyk1133 · 11-27-10, 04:35 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Well, we will see on Sunday then... I think Matt Ryan needs his best game of the season to pull this out, Green Bay has allowed 10 points total in there last 3 games.

Well I wouldn't get too excited about their last 3 games. They played a DAL team that didn't even show up, a disinterested MIN team in turmoil, and shutout the NYJ in the windiest game of the season. GB might be able to limit White, but ATL have a far better balanced offense than the one dimensional GB squad. Either way it should be a great game to watch. I'll be watching that one as a fan..

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 03:18 PM

No Asante for the Eagles vs the Bears now and the are already without Ellis Hobbs, makes it really tempting to bet the Bears here. I was already leaning heavy on the Bears before this but its so tough to pull the trigger in such a huge game for my team, one that could possibly determine who gets a first round bye.

The J-Dizzle · 11-27-10, 03:29 PM

hey ScottLocke with the Packers rock solid defense the last couple of weeks, doesn't Atlanta under 24.5 points seems interesting?

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by The J-Dizzle

hey ScottLocke with the Packers rock solid defense the last couple of weeks, doesn't Atlanta under 24.5 points seems interesting?

Yeah I like that under, nobody has scored 24.5+ on the Packers in 6 weeks. I actually like the under 47 for the game too. But I don't bet totals much as my edge is much smaller so I wouldn't put too much faith into my opinion.

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Final week #12 card

Dallas Cowboys +4... 2.2U to win 2U

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5... 2.2U to win 2U
Green Bay Packers +2... 3.3U to win 3U
St Louis Rams +4... 2.2U to win 2U
Seattle Seahawks +1... 2.2U to win 2U
San Diego Chargers +3... 4.4U to win 4U

POTW
Washington Redskins -1... 5.5U to win 5U

Have a couple teams that would be good for teasing so might add on a teaser to this. Not sure yet.

Adding;

Chicago Bears +4... 1.1U to win 1U

Found the Bears +4 at sportsinteraction.com way too good to pass up IMO, would be more, but then itll be hard for me to root for the Eagles so its not. Hopefully I get punished for betting against my team and I lose this bet or better yet, the Eagles win by 3.

bobbyk1133 · 11-27-10, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

No Asante for the Eagles vs the Bears now and the are already without Ellis Hobbs, makes it really tempting to bet the Bears here. I was already leaning heavy on the Bears before this but its so tough to pull the trigger in such a huge game for my team, one that could possibly determine who gets a first round bye.

I don't see losing Samuel hurting too much. The corners will be just fine given the amount of pressure they will send Cutler's way. Patterson has been playing better than Hobbs, too, so that doesn't really factor into it. Hansen isn't great, but he's serviceable. CHI will attack PHI with the screen game to Forte and try to get Olsen more involved.

gryfyn1 · 11-27-10, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

You may know your own team inside and out, but ATL is the real deal at home. They should be favored by at least 4, so I'm more than happy to take them under 3.

Why is Atl 'the real deal at home' ? they have some solid wins but lokk at teh games so far:

Trailed late and won by 2 vs SF
Blew a lead before beating Cincy by 7
Needed a last minute goal line stand to beat TB
Needed a last minute drive to beat Balty

and of course they Blew out an Awful Cards team.

Those are alot of good wins, but they could have easily lost 3 of those games.

ScottLocke · 11-27-10, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

I don't see losing Samuel hurting too much. The corners will be just fine given the amount of pressure they will send Cutler's way. Patterson has been playing better than Hobbs, too, so that doesn't really factor into it. Hansen isn't great, but he's serviceable. CHI will attack PHI with the screen game to Forte and try to get Olsen more involved.

Yeah and I'm not a big Samuel guy either, but he has been playing well as of late and I liked that he actually hit somebody for once last week, even if he got flagged and fined for it, at least he didn't shy away from contact like always. I just think its a bigger loss vs the Bears playing a guy like Cutler. I'm not so worried about their base defense, i'm worried bout their nickel and dime packages with both of them out since it really hurts their depth and I know the Bears run a lot of 3 and 4 wr sets.