ScottLocke's LOCKs(ok not quite locks)

[Stevedore]

Well I wouldn't get too excited about their last 3 games. They played a DAL team that didn't even show up, a disinterested MIN team in turmoil, and shutout the NYJ in the windiest game of the season. GB might be able to limit White, but ATL have a far better balanced offense than the one dimensional GB squad. Either way it should be a great game to watch. I'll be watching that one as a fan..

Maybe you should look at their last 17 on the road as a dog since 2006, 14-3 ATS. These guys know how to win on the road. This team has lost 3 games by 9 points, 2 in O.T. while they were crippled with injuries. I do think they will win straight up but a 7 point teaser and taking the 9 is the best play in this game IMO.

I was at the Jet game and it wasn't that windy. Great defense by both teams that day. GB is not one dimensional BTW, they run it just enough to complement their lethal passing game. Jackson is very good at catching balls out of the backfield, can rip off 6 and 8 yard runs and is exceptional at picking up the blitz. GB's running game has never been good in Sept. and Oct. under McCarthy but picks up once Nov. and Dec. rolls around. This year is no different.

BTW Woodson will not be matched up on White, Tramon Williams who is playing at a pro bowl level will. Woodson will be all over the place, mostly in the slot and on Tony Gonzalez. Yeah, he shuts down TE's too. See Dallas game last year when he schooled Whitten the entire game.
Ryan and Atlanta will be this defenses toughest test to date, but playing in domes and on the road doesn't faze Green Bay. Great game, way too great to be played at 1:00 Eastern.

[ScottLocke]

Final week #12 card

Dallas Cowboys +4... 2.2U to win 2U

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5... 2.2U to win 2U
Green Bay Packers +2... 3.3U to win 3U
St Louis Rams +4... 2.2U to win 2U
Seattle Seahawks +1... 2.2U to win 2U
San Diego Chargers +3... 4.4U to win 4U
Chicago Bears +4... 1.1U to win 1U

POTW
Washington Redskins -1... 5.5U to win 5U

Have a couple teams that would be good for teasing so might add on a teaser to this. Not sure yet.

So pretty much every sharp is on Minnesota today, I don't know what i'm not seeing in this game but i'm gonna reduce this play to on 2units on the skins by putting 3.3 units on the vikings and eating the 0.3units. Hopefully I don't get screwed in a 1 point game. The only thing i could see others seeing is, that since brad childress was not a very popular guy in the locker room that these guys will play for fraizer, i dunno, I don't see it at all. I'm still confident in the skins but don't wanna go against sharps and major line movement for this big a play.

This also means San Diego is now my play of the week.

Updated final card.

Dallas Cowboys +4... 2.2U to win 2U

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5... 2.2U to win 2U
Green Bay Packers +2... 3.3U to win 3U
St Louis Rams +4... 2.2U to win 2U
Seattle Seahawks +1... 2.2U to win 2U
Chicago Bears +4... 1.1U to win 1U
Washington Redskins -1... 5.5U to win 5U (Minnesota Vikings -1.5... 3.3U to win 3U) <--play reduction

POTW
San Diego Chargers +3... 4.4U to win 4U

also adding;

Carolina Panthers +10... 1.1U to win 1U

[bobbyk1133]

Maybe you should look at their last 17 on the road as a dog since 2006, 14-3 ATS. These guys know how to win on the road. This team has lost 3 games by 9 points, 2 in O.T. while they were crippled with injuries. I do think they will win straight up but a 7 point teaser and taking the 9 is the best play in this game IMO. I was at the Jet game and it wasn't that windy. Great defense by both teams that day. GB is not one dimensional BTW, they run it just enough to complement their lethal passing game. Jackson is very good at catching balls out of the backfield, can rip off 6 and 8 yard runs and is exceptional at picking up the blitz. GB's running game has never been good in Sept. and Oct. under McCarthy but picks up once Nov. and Dec. rolls around. This year is no different. BTW Woodson will not be matched up on White, Tramon Williams who is playing at a pro bowl level will. Woodson will be all over the place, mostly in the slot and on Tony Gonzalez. Yeah, he shuts down TE's too. See Dallas game last year when he schooled Whitten the entire game. Ryan and Atlanta will be this defenses toughest test to date, but playing in domes and on the road doesn't faze Green Bay. Great game, way too great to be played at 1:00 Eastern.

I realize GB is good....they were my pick to make it to the super bowl out of the NFC. It's clear you know your team and we'll see how it shakes out today, but I couldn't help to think there might be a little homerism going on when you start praising the GB running game ...

[Tower]

Thanks, GL!

[ScottLocke]

Well Green Bay deserved to lose that one. Bonehead coaching by not challenging on the critical 4th down conversion in the 1st half and the fumble on the 1 yard line. Plus Matt Ryan played a perfect game.

[bobbyk1133]

Well Green Bay deserved to lose that one. Bonehead coaching by not challenging on the critical 4th down conversion in the 1st half and the fumble on the 1 yard line. Plus Matt Ryan played a perfect game.

ATL at home is no joke. lol I'm not gna say I told you so because I couldn't have been more wrong about PHI this week. You were right about the let down and losing Samuel hurt their ability to coverage a lot more than I thought it would.

[ScottLocke]

ATL at home is no joke. lol I'm not gna say I told you so because I couldn't have been more wrong about PHI this week. You were right about the let down and losing Samuel hurt their ability to coverage a lot more than I thought it would.

Come on, Green Bay beat themselves that game, Atlanta played near perfect on offense and still barely won.

[bobbyk1133]

ATL came up with the drives and the plays they needed to win. They took control of the game twice and sealed it at the end. It's what they do at home. The stats don't lie.

[vboyt]

Atlanta @ home is no joke. I'd know, I have season tickets.

[ScottLocke]

The 4th down conversion where the guy didn't even catch the ball and the Rodgers fumble was a 14 point swing in their favor. I dunno, i'd definitely take Green Bay again if we were starting this game over again.

[bobbyk1133]

The 4th down conversion where the guy didn't even catch the ball and the Rodgers fumble was a 14 point swing in their favor. I dunno, i'd definitely take Green Bay again if we were starting this game over again.

No doubt GB fcked up a few things, but it's not the first time McCarthy has done things like that. All I have to say about that game is Rodgers is a beast. He gives them a chance every game.

[Stevedore]

ATL came up with the drives and the plays they needed to win. They took control of the game twice and sealed it at the end. It's what they do at home. The stats don't lie.

Green Bay beat themselves. You knew it was going to be close, they had the one turnover on the 1 yard line and it cost them the game. Two QB sneaks back to back? The second one was one of the worst calls you'll ever see by a coach, pathetic!! If Atlanta was so special they wouldn't have allowed GB to go 90 yards and tie the game up.

[bobbyk1133]

Green Bay beat themselves. You knew it was going to be close, they had the one turnover on the 1 yard line and it cost them the game. Two QB sneaks back to back? The second one was one of the worst calls you'll ever see by a coach, pathetic!! If Atlanta was so special they wouldn't have allowed GB to go 90 yards and tie the game up.

I'm a big Rodgers fan so I didn't have any illusions about this game. I knew he was going to keep it close. However, it took a 4th and long at the end to even keep this game close. Those aren't good odds to tie a ball game. ATL imposed their will on that GB defense with the ground game and kept GB one dimensional. Nothing about this game was a surprise.

[ScottLocke]

So pretty much every sharp is on Minnesota today, I don't know what i'm not seeing in this game but i'm gonna reduce this play to on 2units on the skins by putting 3.3 units on the vikings and eating the 0.3units. Hopefully I don't get screwed in a 1 point game. The only thing i could see others seeing is, that since brad childress was not a very popular guy in the locker room that these guys will play for fraizer, i dunno, I don't see it at all. I'm still confident in the skins but don't wanna go against sharps and major line movement for this big a play.

This also means San Diego is now my play of the week.

Updated final card.

Dallas Cowboys +4... 2.2U to win 2U

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5... 2.2U to win 2U
Green Bay Packers +2... 3.3U to win 3U
St Louis Rams +4... 2.2U to win 2U
Seattle Seahawks +1... 2.2U to win 2U
Chicago Bears +4... 1.1U to win 1Ubut really
Washington Redskins -1... 5.5U to win 5U (Minnesota Vikings -1.5... 3.3U to win 3U) <--play reduction

POTW
San Diego Chargers +3... 4.4U to win 4U

also adding;

Carolina Panthers +10... 1.1U to win 1U

5-3 on the day and 6-3 on the week for a gain of 4 units, so another solid day/week for me.

[bobbyk1133]

5-3 on the day and 6-3 on the week for a gain of 4 units, so another solid day/week for me.

Nice week and good call on CHI.

[ScottLocke]

Nice week and good call on CHI.

Thanks! Hopefully we can turn it around vs Houston

[drukes1234]

Any reason for the size reduction on the play of the week?

[ScottLocke]

Any reason for the size reduction on the play of the week?

Every sharp was on Minny, the line moved 4 points from the opening against me, thought maybe I was missing something due to both of those things. Glad I reduced it.

[ScottLocke]

Pick for next week

6 point teaser;
Eagles -2/Chiefs -1.5... 5.5U to win 5U

I expect both lines to go up fast so getting on this early.

[ssk13809]

Scott, I swear your POTW record was 6-3 before this week started. You lost your POTW WAS. Now it is 7-3? I already thought your POTW was skewed earlier, but after this, I KNOW it is (and maybe has been all along).

[ScottLocke]

Adding for tonight;

San Francisco -1.5... 1.1U to win 1U

[ScottLocke]

Scott, I swear your POTW record was 6-3 before this week started. You lost your POTW WAS. Now it is 7-3? I already thought your POTW was skewed earlier, but after this, I KNOW it is (and maybe has been all along).

I downgraded my Washington play about an hour and a half before kickoff which made my San Diego play my largest play of the week, therefore making it my POTW. Everything is in this thread, you can check for yourself lol, go look at all my potw's and tell me what my losses are, there won't be more than 3.

Take a look at post #177, my updated final bet card of the week posted at 11:30AM... an hour and a half before kickoff.

[bobbyk1133]

Pick for next week 6 point teaser; Eagles -2/Chiefs -1.5... 5.5U to win 5U I expect both lines to go up fast so getting on this early.

Good job jumping on the early lines. I have the same teaser. There's not nearly enough talk about opening lines on this forum.

[ScottLocke]

Good job jumping on the early lines. I have the same teaser. There's not nearly enough talk about opening lines on this forum.

Yeah I fully expect both lines to be around 10 by kickoff. And hopefully Andre Johnson gets suspended for the Eagles game!

[bobbyk1133]

Yeah I fully expect both lines to be around 10 by kickoff. And hopefully Andre Johnson gets suspended for the Eagles game!

Early reports are that he won't be suspended. It doesn't change my opinion about the bet though.

[ssk13809]

I downgraded my Washington play about an hour and a half before kickoff which made my San Diego play my largest play of the week, therefore making it my POTW. Everything is in this thread, you can check for yourself lol, go look at all my potw's and tell me what my losses are, there won't be more than 3.

Take a look at post #177, my updated final bet card of the week posted at 11:30AM... an hour and a half before kickoff.

Good call

[ScottLocke]

Another win with the niners tonight, moves me to 7-3 on the week, hopefully I have another good week coming up.

[ssk13809]

Hey Scott you are doing pretty well ATS. I'm creating an ATS team for myself if you'd like to join. Let me know.

[ScottLocke]

Week #13 picks

St Louis Rams -3... 2.4U to win 2U
Tampa Bay Buccs +3... 3.45U to win 3U
Indianapolis Colts -5... 1.1U to win 1U
New England Patriots -3... 3.6U to win 3U
Pittsburgh Steelers +3... 3.3U to win 3U

POTW 6 point teaser
Eagles -2/Chiefs -1.5... 5.5U to win 5U

[drukes1234]

Week #13 picks

St Louis Rams -3... 2.4U to win 2U
Tampa Bay Buccs +3... 3.45U to win 3U
Indianapolis Colts -5... 1.1U to win 1U
New England Patriots -3... 3.6U to win 3U
Pittsburgh Steelers +3... 3.3U to win 3U

POTW 6 point teaser
Eagles -2/Chiefs -1.5... 5.5U to win 5U

Great picks Scott, I didn't jump on the Eagles/Chiefs line early enough but do you think a 6 point teaser of -3.5 and -2.5 is still worth a big play?

Thnx

[ScottLocke]

Great picks Scott, I didn't jump on the Eagles/Chiefs line early enough but do you think a 6 point teaser of -3.5 and -2.5 is still worth a big play?

Thnx

There is still value in a 6.5 or 7 point teaser. You have to get it down to at least -3 to have good value.

[bobbyk1133]

Going against ATL again?

[ssk13809]

Week #13 picks

St Louis Rams -3... 2.4U to win 2U
Tampa Bay Buccs +3... 3.45U to win 3U
Indianapolis Colts -5... 1.1U to win 1U
New England Patriots -3... 3.6U to win 3U
Pittsburgh Steelers +3... 3.3U to win 3U

POTW 6 point teaser
Eagles -2/Chiefs -1.5... 5.5U to win 5U

I love the teaser, NE, and Rams pick. Colts is also good.

Only one I dislike is PIT

[betmajster]

sorry for possible stupid question but I know shit about NFL: how can I get Eagles -2 and Chiefs -1.5 lines? All I can find is -9...

[ScottLocke]

sorry for possible stupid question but I know shit about NFL: how can I get Eagles -2 and Chiefs -1.5 lines? All I can find is -9...

Its a 6 point teaser, I made the bet on Monday before the lines rose up to -9