ScottLocke's LOCKs(ok not quite locks)

[bobbyk1133]

Another correction. PHI is not 4-7 before the bye under Reid. He's 5-6 and won the last 2.

[ScottLocke]

Another correction. PHI is not 4-7 before the bye under Reid. He's 5-6 and won the last 2.

4-7 ATS( against the spread)

[bobbyk1133]

4-7 ATS( against the spread)

Ah my bad. If PHI had the hook I would consider taking them, but it won't be easy on the road in TEN even if Collins is the starter.

[ScottLocke]

Ah my bad. If PHI had the hook I would consider taking them, but it won't be easy on the road in TEN even if Collins is the starter.

I really don't think Collins is too much of a downgrade anyway. I still hope the Eagles win, I will trade 1 unit for an Eagles win any day.

[bobbyk1133]

I really don't think Collins is too much of a downgrade anyway. I still hope the Eagles win, I will trade 1 unit for an Eagles win any day.

How can you say Collins isn't a downgrade? He is nowhere near as mobile to avoid the rush. Of course you know how aggressive PHI defense is. It also allows them to stack up against the run MUCH easier. With Young in there the ends and edge rushers must stay much more disciplined in case he scrambles which in turn opens up much better running lanes for CJ. Go back and look at CJ's rushing stats with Collins at QB and with Young at QB.

[ScottLocke]

How can you say Collins isn't a downgrade? He is nowhere near as mobile to avoid the rush. Of course you know how aggressive PHI defense is. It also allows them to stack up against the run MUCH easier. With Young in there the ends and edge rushers must stay much more disciplined in case he scrambles which in turn opens up much better running lanes for CJ. Go back and look at CJ's rushing stats with Collins at QB and with Young at QB.

I said isn't too much of a downgrade, obv he is a small downgrade. What Collins lacks in mobility he gains in being able to get the ball out quickly. He can read blitzes well and get the ball out before the blitz gets there much better than Vince Young. Also the Eagles have a fast but small defense, its better to run it right at them than it is to run outside. With Vince Young in there they like to run that little qb/rb option to the outside, I don't think that would have been very effective vs the Eagles anyway.

Just look at Collins history, this guy just doesn't take sacks.

[bobbyk1133]

I said isn't too much of a downgrade, obv he is a small downgrade. What Collins lacks in mobility he gains in being able to get the ball out quickly. He can read blitzes well and get the ball out before the blitz gets there much better than Vince Young. Also the Eagles have a fast but small defense, its better to run it right at them than it is to run outside. With Vince Young in there they like to run that little qb/rb option to the outside, I don't think that would have been very effective vs the Eagles anyway. Just look at Collins history, this guy just doesn't take sacks.

Collins killed PHI many times on NY, but this isn't Collins of 2001 nor is this Collins version 2.0. PHI will use a lot of slide play on the line and zone blitzes to attack CJ but I won't be surprised if he bounces a couple outside on cutbacks for long runs anyways. PHI will miss Vick and D-Jax's speed in this game and Marty will need another A+ game plan to keep Kolb upright against this TEN line. Kolb really hasn't faced a tough D this year so it will be interesting to see how he does in a hostile environment. He could become check-down Charlie again.

[ScottLocke]

Collins killed PHI many times on NY, but this isn't Collins of 2001 nor is this Collins version 2.0. PHI will use a lot of slide play on the line and zone blitzes to attack CJ but I won't be surprised if he bounces a couple outside on cutbacks for long runs anyways. PHI will miss Vick and D-Jax's speed in this game and Marty will need another A+ game plan to keep Kolb upright against this TEN line. Kolb really hasn't faced a tough D this year so it will be interesting to see how he does in a hostile environment. He could become check-down Charlie again.

Yeah i'm not trying to say Collins is great or anything. I think we can both agree Collins is one of the better backup QBs in the league though.

[bobbyk1133]

Yeah i'm not trying to say Collins is great or anything. I think we can both agree Collins is one of the better backup QBs in the league though.

PHI kept CJ in check like I thought, but what happened to the pass defense? WoW. Tough loss for our birds. Collins continues to haunt PHI.

[ScottLocke]

PHI kept CJ in check like I thought, but what happened to the pass defense? WoW. Tough loss for our birds. Collins continues to haunt PHI.

Ugly game, really thought the birds might pull out a win til that horrendous 4th qtr.

[ScottLocke]

5-4 this week.

Awful officiating all around this week, the end of that dolphins-steelers game was pathetic.

[ScottLocke]

Week #8 Picks

Dallas Cowboys -6.5... 1.1U to win 1U
San Fran 49ers -2... 2.2U to win 2U
Buffalo Bills +7.5... 3.3U to win 3U
Green Bay Packers +6... 2.2U to win 2U
San Diego Chargers -3.5... 3.3U to win 3U
Seattle Seahawks +2.5... 2.2U to win 2U
Minnesota Vikings +6... 2.2U to win 2U

POTW
New Orleans Saints -1... 4.4U to win 4U

[ScottLocke]

5-3 +8.5U this week. One loss was Dallas for only a unit which I was sooooo close to not even including. Oh well, i'll take a +8.5U day any day. Hopefully I can keep it going next week.

[bobbyk1133]

5-3 +8.5U this week. One loss was Dallas for only a unit which I was sooooo close to not even including. Oh well, i'll take a +8.5U day any day. Hopefully I can keep it going next week.

Isn't it hard to bet on DAL as a PHI fan? It's almost not even worth the payoff when they cash. Nice week.

[ssk13809]

Hey Scott you keeping up with my 70% ATS Bet over 24 plays?


I'm 5-0-1 now


Like I said, my "Near Locks or LOCKS" hit 80-90% ATS. You made it too easy for me by just having to hit 70%.

[ScottLocke]

Tough week this week, I like a lot of away teams and road favs, usually not good for betting. Will prob keep the bets to 4 or 5 games this week.

[Tower]

any picks yet?

[ScottLocke]

Week #9 Picks

Chicago Bears -3... 1.05U to win 1U
Miami Dolphins +5... 1.1U to win 1U
Cleveland Browns +4... 1.1U to win 1U
San Diego Chargers -3... 3U to win 3U
Kansas City Chiefs +1... 2.2U to win 2U
Eagles/Colts Over 46... 2.2U to win 2U

POTW
Philadelphia Eagles -3... 4.2U to win 4U

6 point teaser
Atlanta Falcons -3/Green Bay Packers -1 ... 3.3U to win 3U

Tough week this week, you could really throw the Bears, Dolphins and Browns out too. I think the Bears and Browns are in great spots after coming off byes and the Dolphins spread is just off, should be +3.5 by my calculations for them, so all very small plays with small edges for me.

Don't do teasers much either, but love this one. And my POTW on the Eagles, i know they are my team, but I have went against them a lot this year. This is just a great spot for them, coming off a bye where Andy Reid is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS playing the Colts coming off a short week and a HUGE win over their division Rivals, the Colts are also very banged up and should have a tough time preparing for Mike Vick and the Eagles going on the road on a short week.

[ScottLocke]

these roughing penalties in the nfl are getting really pathetic, its ruining the game

[ScottLocke]

Well another small winning week finishing 4-3-1. Very frustrating though, as one loss was due to some terrible coaching in KC and beyond bad reffing in the Eagles game. I have never called a game rigged before, but something was definitely going on in that game, there is no way it was legit, so many bad calls on the Eagles all around and the Eagles weren't getting the same calls in return. I'm not complaining about it, just simply stating what I saw because really, it didn't even affect me that much since the terrible calls got me the over in that game. Its just sad, because every week there is just some awful officiating, I still cannot get over that Dolphins/Steelers game a few weeks ago and that didn't affect me either. I just hate seeing games poorly officiated and having teams pay the price for it. Something really needs to be done and Roger Goodell needs to go. He is trying to ruin this game.

Also, I really need to starting buying the hook off of or onto the 3, I just hate paying more than 10cents juice but its not cost me 2 wins and a push this year.

So once again, 4-3-1 for +1.5 Units this week, I really feel a big + 10 unit or so week coming on soon, this hovering just above the .500 mark can't last much longer.

[bobbyk1133]

You could have got KC +3 all week long so can't really complain about that one. You were on the right side, but took it at far less value. I still don't understand why so many people here wait until the end of the week to make their picks. What is the wait for? Weather? Injuries? Unless it's a major player it shouldn't make or break a pick.

I agree wholeheartedly about the officiating in the IND/PHI game though. I had IND +3 and I'm an Eagles fan so let's just say it was the perfect outcome for me. lol But I could not believe some of those calls. PHI only had themselves to blame for the final score though. If they score one out of the 10 times they were in the red zone we wouldn't even be having this discussion. Reid had a great game plan.

[ScottLocke]

Yeah, KC was +3 -130 juice, at least at my book, I didn't wanna pay that much juice. The ML was +115 at that time, so I essentially cost myself 25cents in juice. I really didn't expect the line to move so much though. Oh well, the Raiders winning isn't all bad, the Raiders are gonna be so over-rated now that there is gonna be so much value in fading them. Too bad they have a bye next week, would have been such an awesome spot to go against them. If you think the Eagles blew opportunities then you should have seen the Chiefs, they were blowing them left and right. And giving Thomas Jones 19 carries to Jamal Charles 10 was just a joke.

I'm sure the Eagles are just fine with the final score though, so doubt they are blaming anyone about anything, the roughing calling on Collie was just the worst, I remember a few on Vick that were worse than that hit. I do love the Eagles in the upcoming weeks though, there is gonna be so much value taking them, Andy Reid is so good after the bye week. The Eagles and the Chargers, I really think they are gonna start rolling after their bye week. Should be a good second half of the season with hopefully some better officiating.

[bobbyk1133]

I watched enough of the KC game to know they shouldn't have lost. The same thing happened vs BUF the week before. I don't understand a lot of their playcalling. They were ripping off huge runs against BUF, but went away from it for whatever reason. Great coaching staff, but they must be convinced Cassel is the next Brady.

[ScottLocke]

Really like a lot this week, have a few big plays. Should have my plays posted tonight or tomorrow morning so I have avoid so line movement. Also have a play on the Thursday game.

[ScottLocke]

Week #10 picks

Atlanta Falcons -1... 2.2U to win 2U
Ravens/Falcons Under 43.5... 2.2U to win 2U
St Louis Rams +6... 4.4U to win 4U
Philadelphia Eagles -3... 6.6U to win 6U
Eagles/Redskins Over 42... 1.1U to win 1U

POTW
New England Patriots +5... 7.7U to win 7U

6 point teaser
Indianapolis Colts -1/Houston Texans +7.5... 3.3U to win 3U

Also have a few small leans, may add a couple more later in the week for 1 unit.

[ScottLocke]

Week #10 picks

Atlanta Falcons -1... 2.2U to win 2U
Ravens/Falcons Under 43.5... 2.2U to win 2U
St Louis Rams +6... 4.4U to win 4U
Philadelphia Eagles -3... 6.6U to win 6U
Eagles/Redskins Over 42... 1.1U to win 1U

POTW
New England Patriots +5... 7.7U to win 7U

6 point teaser
Indianapolis Colts -1/Houston Texans +7.5... 3.3U to win 3U

Also have a few small leans, may add a couple more later in the week for 1 unit.

Adding 1 unit;

Ravens/Falcons Under 44... 1.1U to win 1U

[ScottLocke]

Awesome 27 point 4th qtr to ruin my under. Man I am running awful this year. I wonder what my record would be if I was just doing 1st half bets... prob close to 70%

[ssk13809]

Scott is our 70% ATS (over 24+ games) bet still on?


I'm 6-0 now

[ScottLocke]

Week #10 picks

Atlanta Falcons -1... 2.2U to win 2U
Ravens/Falcons Under 43.5... 2.2U to win 2U


St Louis Rams +6... 4.4U to win 4U
Philadelphia Eagles -3... 6.6U to win 6U
Eagles/Redskins Over 42... 1.1U to win 1U

POTW
New England Patriots +5... 7.7U to win 7U

6 point teaser
Indianapolis Colts -1/Houston Texans +7.5... 3.3U to win 3U

Also have a few small leans, may add a couple more later in the week for 1 unit.

Too many good picks to pass up this week... adding;

Miami Dolphins +1... 1.1U to win 1U
Chicago Bears +1... 1.1U to win 1U
Houston Texans +1... 1.1 to win 1U
Denver Broncos +1... 1.1 to win 1U
Carolina Panthers +7... 1.1U to win 1U

[16johnnymac]

Nice plays

[Tower]

Good luck today, I'm still with ya!

[ScottLocke]

6-2... +14.8U today. Not too bad.

[ssk13809]

Nice week Scott. Best week since? I mean, what 7-3? Though it's not over yet...I'll be rooting for the Redskins as I basically have a +350 ML on them.

Scott is our 70% ATS (over 24+ games) bet still on?


I'm 6-0 now

Hey Scott that is 8-0-1.



Just give me the 200 points right now. I told you I hit 80-90% on my ATS "Locks" and "Near Locks". You made it way too easy by asking for just 70%.

Might as well give me the 200 points right now.

[ScottLocke]

Nice week Scott. Best week since? I mean, what 7-3? Though it's not over yet...I'll be rooting for the Redskins as I basically have a +350 ML on them. Hey Scott that is 8-0-1. Just give me the 200 points right now. I told you I hit 80-90% on my ATS "Locks" and "Near Locks". You made it way too easy by asking for just 70%. Might as well give me the 200 points right now.

Skins aren't gonna win tomorrow without A LOT of luck.

You might hit 70%, I still think its funny you think you can achieve the numbers of 70% ATS and 90% MLs long term (over 100s of picks)

[ssk13809]

Skins aren't gonna win tomorrow without A LOT of luck.

You might hit 70%, I still think its funny you think you can achieve the numbers of 70% ATS and 90% MLs long term (over 100s of picks)

Well no sh*t I might hit 70% now. lol.

I'm 8-0. Even coin flipping could get 70% at this point. Bad bet by you period. If you had offered 80% I would've accepted. You made it too easy by saying 70%. That's why it was a bad bet by you.

I never said 90% MLs. 90% on LOCK ATS Plays. Which I'm 4-0 this year, and I posted my last year results (with links) showing me go 7-0. I'm 80+% on "Near Lock" ATS plays, which is what I used in my thread along with my LOCK ATS Plays.

It's my LOCK and "Near Lock" ATS Plays that have gotten me to 8-0 so far.





As for the Redskins, well come on it's +350 ML, that's not a bad bet for me at this point. I know they will have to get lucky, but I have some inside sources that say the result tomorrow will be surprising. Think DAL-NYG today but to a lesser degree.