ScottLocke's LOCKs(ok not quite locks)

ScottLocke · 12-04-10, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Week #13 picks

St Louis Rams -3... 2.4U to win 2U
Tampa Bay Buccs +3... 3.45U to win 3U
Indianapolis Colts -5... 1.1U to win 1U
New England Patriots -3... 3.6U to win 3U
Pittsburgh Steelers +3... 3.3U to win 3U

POTW 6 point teaser
Eagles -2/Chiefs -1.5... 5.5U to win 5U

adding;
Tennessee Titans -3... 2.2U to win 2U

Stevedore · 12-05-10, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

adding;
Tennessee Titans -3... 2.2U to win 2U

Can I ask why you like the Colts? They're due? Given their injury situation, can't see laying anything over 3 with this team right now. Or are you just fading the boys thinking their just playing out the string? Anyway, BOL on your picks; nice week last week.

ScottLocke · 12-05-10, 03:42 AM

Originally posted by Stevedore

Can I ask why you like the Colts? They're due? Given their injury situation, can't see laying anything over 3 with this team right now. Or are you just fading the boys thinking their just playing out the string? Anyway, BOL on your picks; nice week last week.

The Colts are actually getting some key guys back from injury in Gary Brackett and Clint Session. But this is more of a fade on the Cowboys, the Saints game on thanksgiving was the Cowboys' Superbowl this year, now that they've lost that I expect the Cowboys to revert back to who they were earlier this season. With that being said, its only a 1 unit play, because if the Cowboys decide to show up, they can beat anybody.

bobbyk1133 · 12-05-10, 04:56 AM

GL Scott. It's nice to sit back and watch the weekend with PHI already in the books.

ScottLocke · 12-05-10, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

GL Scott. It's nice to sit back and watch the weekend with PHI already in the books.

Thanks! GL to you too

drukes1234 · 12-06-10, 12:34 AM

U da man scott

ScottLocke · 12-06-10, 12:39 AM

made some money today but only 3-3, a Pats win and cover would be nice today. Would have also been nice if the Buccs coulda held on. Amazing how the Falcons pull every game out in the 4th quarter.

bobbyk1133 · 12-06-10, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

made some money today but only 3-3, a Pats win and cover would be nice today. Would have also been nice if the Buccs coulda held on. Amazing how the Falcons pull every game out in the 4th quarter.

It's what ATL do!

Cmon I saved you a seat on the bandwagon.

I feel the same way about BAL though. All they had to do was punt and they woulda won the game.

Win some, lose some I guess...

ScottLocke · 12-06-10, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

It's what ATL do!

Cmon I saved you a seat on the bandwagon.

I feel the same way about BAL though. All they had to do was punt and they woulda won the game.

Win some, lose some I guess...

Itll catch up with Atlanta eventually, believe me.

ScottLocke · 12-07-10, 12:40 AM

4-3 on the week +6.25 units, tonights game was prob the most boring game i ever watched lol, ill take the W though

drukes1234 · 12-07-10, 09:31 AM

good work

TheTreeOfLife · 12-07-10, 10:50 AM

good luck scott
always enjoy reading ur insights and plays
keep it up!

ScottLocke · 12-09-10, 07:14 PM

Don't see any value in either side of tonights game, so I'm staying away

ScottLocke · 12-10-10, 09:50 PM

Week #14 picks

Minnesota Vikings +3... 2.2U to win 2U
Carolina Panthers +7.5... 1.1U to win 1U
St Louis Rams +9... 4.4U to win 4U
Chicago Bears +3... 3.3U to win 3U
Miami Dolphins +6... 2.4U to win 2U
Philadelphia Eagles -3... 3.6U to win 3U

POTW
Arizona Cardinals +4.5... 5.5U to win 5U

ssk13809 · 12-10-10, 10:01 PM

I like the weekly card Scott. It once again should be profitable.

Out of curiosity Scott, approx. how much is 1 unit out of your bankroll?

bobbyk1133 · 12-10-10, 10:04 PM

Where you gettin PHI -3 this late in the week?

Did you buy half point?

ScottLocke · 12-10-10, 10:06 PM

It fluctuates, I use my poker bankroll, so not even 1%.

1unit= $100 though

ScottLocke · 12-10-10, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Where you gettin PHI -3 this late in the week?

Did you buy half point?

Yeah, that's why i'm paying the double juice.

ssk13809 · 12-10-10, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

It fluctuates, I use my poker bankroll, so not even 1%.

1unit= $100 though

So then, if you are so confident you will win every week, why not put more of your bankroll on-line every week?

ScottLocke · 12-10-10, 10:10 PM

100 is still a lot per unit to me, i'm very conservative with my bankroll. I'll prob up it to 200 per unit next year though.

ssk13809 · 12-10-10, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

100 is still a lot per unit to me, i'm very conservative with my bankroll. I'll prob up it to 200 per unit next year though.

But that doesn't make sense. Say if you have winning weeks 70% of the time (and thats a conservative call for you), then wouldn't it make more sense to put more on each week to maximize long-term profit.

Either you don't really think you can win consistently or you're just being way too conservative. Given a 70% weekly win rate, you could do SO much better than you have. But that's if you actually think 70% is a given.

jas19illini · 12-11-10, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

But that doesn't make sense. Say if you have winning weeks 70% of the time (and thats a conservative call for you), then wouldn't it make more sense to put more on each week to maximize long-term profit.

Either you don't really think you can win consistently or you're just being way too conservative. Given a 70% weekly win rate, you could do SO much better than you have. But that's if you actually think 70% is a given.

Some people are just more confident with upping their bets. A conservative person by heart is hard to change, im that way so i can get an idea of where scott is coming from.

jas19illini · 12-11-10, 12:49 AM

Scott, would you care to give a couple sentences/reasons for each of your picks? I just like to hear people's analysis. If not that's cool, no biggy.

ScottLocke · 12-11-10, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by jas19illini

Scott, would you care to give a couple sentences/reasons for each of your picks? I just like to hear people's analysis. If not that's cool, no biggy.

Sure

Carolina +7.5- Carolina actually matches up fairly well with Atlanta imo, so I like getting 7.5 at home with them. Carolina main weakness(one of many lol) is protecting the QB, Atlanta is not good at all at getting to the QB, so that should help Clausen actually getting some sort of a passing game going (Atl is 27th vs the pass) This combined with the fact that Atlanta just won a huge game last week and this may be a letdown week for them, because, this game means very little to Atlanta. As long as Atlanta beats New Orleans in 2 weeks the division will be theirs. Also, of Atlanta's 10 wins, only 2 have come by more than 7 points.

Vikings +3- I'd feel much more confident if TJ was starting at QB over Favre. Minnesota is playing really well right now. NYG has been winning games by running the ball, Minnesota has a great run defense. Which means Eli is going to have to throw the ball, and the Giants have injuries along the oline and wrs, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks might be back, but they won't be 100%. I think the Vikings should be able to get a good rush on Manning causing him to turn the ball over a few times.

Miami +6- Miami also has a very strong run defense, which means Sanchez is going to have to beat them, Sanchez has really struggled the past few weeks and I don't think it gets much better this week at Miami. I think Miami could win this game outright. Miami has been great on the road and have also beaten the Jets in 3 of their 4 last meetings. This is also following a trend that I love, teams that get blown out by 17+ of MNF are 16-34 ATS in the last 10 years, so normally those teams have that bad play carry over to the next week.

Arizona +4.5- John Skelton is starting for Arizona this week, and sadly, I think he is an upgrade over Max Hall and Derek Anderson, not that that is really saying much. The Broncos are in total disarray and should be favored over nobody, especially on the road. Their coach just got fired, and unlike what happened in Dallas and Minnesota, I don't think Mcdaniels lost the locker room like those other two coaches did, so I think its unlikely for the players to come out fired up to play for their new coach. I think this will be a low scoring game won by a FG, so I love getting 4.5 points here.

Bears+3- The Patriots just won the biggest game of the year for them, they got their revenge on the Jets and beat them badly. Now they have to play the Bears who IMO have the best defense in the league. This game means very little to the Pats and I think the Bears match up great with the Pats. I think Cutler should have no trouble at all throwing all over this Pats defense and as long as he doesn't throw too many INTs (which he possibly could) I think the Bears cruise to a 10 point victory here.

Rams +9- The Rams have been great ATS this year, I really don't know why Vegas continues to underestimate them. New Orleans played very sloppy last week vs Cincinnati last week and got away with it. Which means I don't expect them to be any different for the Rams this week. They got away with it last week, i'm sure they think they can again this week. The Rams actually kept it close and outplayed the last year IMO when they were terrible, they are much improved this year and I think they could win this one straight up.

Eagles -3- This one could get ugly, this is a major revenge game for the Eagles and I'm sure Andy Reid has been game planning for this for weeks. Asante Samuel should be back for the Birds and Dez Bryant who is IMO Dallas' best WR is out. Marion Barber is also out. The Eagles defense is much better with Asante in there and I don't see any way that Dallas' offense will be able to keep up with Phillys in this one. I see a high scoring game where Philly wins by 2 TDs+

jas19illini · 12-11-10, 02:07 AM

This was exactly what i was looking for. Very helpful seeing other people's thoughts/insight into matchups.

V2daTizzo · 12-11-10, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Bears+3- The Patriots just won the biggest game of the year for them, they got their revenge on the Jets and beat them badly. Now they have to play the Bears who IMO have the best defense in the league. This game means very little to the Pats and I think the Bears match up great with the Pats. I think Cutler should have no trouble at all throwing all over this Pats defense and as long as he doesn't throw too many INTs (which he possibly could) I think the Bears cruise to a 10 point victory here.

After watching Bellicheck and Brady in 07, you really think this will be the case? Even if I didn't witness that year, I still think losing to the Browns really sparked something in the Pats. Brady hasn't been the same since that game, visibly showing great leadership on the sidelines and making crucial plays. I don't think the Pats let down. In fact, I think the windy weather helps their offense and will be a detriment to the Bears. The Pats use the short passing game, basically like runs, by dumping it off on speedy receivers and letting them do their thing. Cutler on the other hand, I can't trust him in perfect weather, how do can I trust him in bad throwing conditions?

On that note, I completely agree with your Rams analysis

ScottLocke · 12-11-10, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by V2daTizzo

After watching Bellicheck and Brady in 07, you really think this will be the case? Even if I didn't witness that year, I still think losing to the Browns really sparked something in the Pats. Brady hasn't been the same since that game, visibly showing great leadership on the sidelines and making crucial plays. I don't think the Pats let down. In fact, I think the windy weather helps their offense and will be a detriment to the Bears. The Pats use the short passing game, basically like runs, by dumping it off on speedy receivers and letting them do their thing. Cutler on the other hand, I can't trust him in perfect weather, how do can I trust him in bad throwing conditions? On that note, I completely agree with your Rams analysis

Highly doubt that will be the case, that 07 pats team was a veteran team. This is a young and totally different team. Each of those games actually were significant that year too because they were going for an undefeated season. We'll see though.

brahmabull117 · 12-11-10, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Rams +9- The Rams have been great ATS this year, I really don't know why Vegas continues to underestimate them. New Orleans played very sloppy last week vs Cincinnati last week and got away with it. Which means I don't expect them to be any different for the Rams this week. They got away with it last week, i'm sure they think they can again this week. The Rams actually kept it close and outplayed the last year IMO when they were terrible, they are much improved this year and I think they could win this one straight up.

this game will be a blowut

both Justin King and Ronald Bartell (2 of the rams top 3 cornerbacks) are likely to be out. A lot of the Rams other defenders are also banged up. With the tear that the saints offense has been on, you really think a rams defense playing third stringers in their main defensive back positions are gonna be able to slow down Drew Brees and that offense in New Orleans??

personally, i think the rams will have to score 27-35 points just to cover the spread and this team's offense does not have the capacity to do that. Keep in mind the saints defense is top 5 in the league in points given up (despite their porous performance last 2 weeks)

saints - 42
Rams - 21

Eagles -3- This one could get ugly, this is a major revenge game for the Eagles and I'm sure Andy Reid has been game planning for this for weeks. Asante Samuel should be back for the Birds and Dez Bryant who is IMO Dallas' best WR is out. Marion Barber is also out. The Eagles defense is much better with Asante in there and I don't see any way that Dallas' offense will be able to keep up with Phillys in this one. I see a high scoring game where Philly wins by 2 TDs+

agreed 100% in this spot

a close game is a possibility, but I see the eagles winning this by a 41-24 type score

ScottLocke · 12-11-10, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

this game will be a blowut

both Justin King and Ronald Bartell (2 of the rams top 3 cornerbacks) are likely to be out. A lot of the Rams other defenders are also banged up. With the tear that the saints offense has been on, you really think a rams defense playing third stringers in their main defensive back positions are gonna be able to slow down Drew Brees and that offense in New Orleans??

personally, i think the rams will have to score 27-35 points just to cover the spread and this team's offense does not have the capacity to do that. Keep in mind the saints defense is top 5 in the league in points given up (despite their porous performance last 2 weeks)

saints - 42
Rams - 21

agreed 100% in this spot

a close game is a possibility, but I see the eagles winning this by a 41-24 type score

Pretty sure you would have said New Orleans would have blown out Cinci last week, and Dallas the week before. And calling King one of their top 3 DBs is pretty lol, even if he is, the drop off from him to the next guy would be next to nothing.

And Bartell has been practicing so he could actually play, not that he is even that good any way. When players that aren't that good to begin with get injured, the dropoff is not going to matter too much.

bobbyk1133 · 12-12-10, 07:45 PM

Stop betting against ATL!

I can only hold your seat on the bandwagon for so long....

ScottLocke · 12-13-10, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Stop betting against ATL!

I can only hold your seat on the bandwagon for so long....

They beat the Panthers, don't get too excited lol. And they gave up 212 yards rushing to them. I find them similar to the Jets, its only a matter of time before these close wins every week catch up with them. Obv this week wasn't close though.

bobbyk1133 · 12-13-10, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

I find them similar to the Jets, its only a matter of time before these close wins every week catch up with them.

Gambling fallacy. It's like the guy who keeps betting black on roulette because he thinks the previous outcomes have something to do with the current one.

ScottLocke · 12-13-10, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Gambling fallacy. It's like the guy who keeps betting black on roulette because he thinks the previous outcomes have something to do with the current one.

Stating an analogy like that comparing to football just makes you look dumb. They are on the positive end of variance right now.

bobbyk1133 · 12-13-10, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Stating an analogy like that comparing to football just makes you look dumb. They are on the positive end of variance right now.

Variance? Cmon. They are 9-4 ATS because they've earned it. Check the stats. If anything, there has probably been the least amount of variance with ATL because they are so consistent. There's nothing to support their success as "variance".

ScottLocke · 12-13-10, 02:18 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Variance? Cmon. They are 9-4 ATS because they've earned it. Check the stats. If anything, there has probably been the least amount of variance with ATL because they are so consistent. There's nothing to support their success as "variance".

Still haven't impressed me, they are 1 and done in playoffs IMO