ScottLocke's LOCKs(ok not quite locks)

[bobbyk1133]

Nice job this week. Our Eagles will cap it off like icing on a cake. It wasn't a good day if you followed the public consensus.

[ssk13809]

Hey Scott correct me if I'm wrong being as you are experienced and all,


But doesn't it seem easy to make money in the NFL? I mean honestly, sure you might have a bad week here and there, but don't you think majority of the weeks will be green? I mean ask yourself honestly, don't you think you could make a decent profit long-term? Why do people say its so hard, when really its not?


I just feel its really easy to make money in the NFL. I think you should feel the same. Having a bad week seems to be very rare and literally requires "bad luck". Honestly, thats what it is.

[ScottLocke]

Well no sh*t I might hit 70% now. lol.

I'm 8-0. Even coin flipping could get 70% at this point. Bad bet by you period. If you had offered 80% I would've accepted. You made it too easy by saying 70%. That's why it was a bad bet by you.

I never said 90% MLs. 90% on LOCK ATS Plays. Which I'm 4-0 this year, and I posted my last year results (with links) showing me go 7-0. I'm 80+% on "Near Lock" ATS plays, which is what I used in my thread along with my LOCK ATS Plays.

It's my LOCK and "Near Lock" ATS Plays that have gotten me to 8-0 so far.





As for the Redskins, well come on it's +350 ML, that's not a bad bet for me at this point. I know they will have to get lucky, but I have some inside sources that say the result tomorrow will be surprising. Think DAL-NYG today but to a lesser degree.

Lol, wasn't a bad bet by me, your obv running very very good right now. It happens. Its called variance, and right now you're on the positive end. LOL at hitting 90% on your Lock ATS plays long term. Not happenin buddy, you have so much to learn... and I am in no means hating on you. Your picks are excellent, you just have yet to realize that nobody has as big of an edge betting sports as you think you do.

Just please stop bringing this into my thread. This will be my last response to you on our bet and your records. I will not bother with people who can't keep accurate record keeping and have yet to learn the basics of betting NFL football regarding variance and basic bet types that are allowed.

If you wish to comment on my plays then that is fine, otherwise, keep it in your own thread.

[ScottLocke]

Hey Scott correct me if I'm wrong being as you are experienced and all,


But doesn't it seem easy to make money in the NFL? I mean honestly, sure you might have a bad week here and there, but don't you think majority of the weeks will be green? I mean ask yourself honestly, don't you think you could make a decent profit long-term? Why do people say its so hard, when really its not?


I just feel its really easy to make money in the NFL. I think you should feel the same. Having a bad week seems to be very rare and literally requires "bad luck". Honestly, thats what it is.

Its hard cause most people bet with their hearts and don't know the NFL as well as we do. Believe me, I sucked at it too when I first started. Its not easy either, there is so many variables to account for when it comes to making a bet and so many different angles to look at. I think this season has been tougher than the last few also, but its been getting better as the season goes on. From here on til the end of the season I might have one more losing week, but thats it, I really like the way things are shaping up.

[ScottLocke]

Nice job this week. Our Eagles will cap it off like icing on a cake. It wasn't a good day if you followed the public consensus.

Yeah the public got crushed today, the Eagles are a major public team so hopefully Vegas gives some back tomorrow!

[ssk13809]

Lol, wasn't a bad bet by me, your obv running very very good right now. It happens. Its called variance, and right now you're on the positive end. LOL at hitting 90% on your Lock ATS plays long term. Not happenin buddy, you have so much to learn... and I am in no means hating on you. Your picks are excellent, you just have yet to realize that nobody has as big of an edge betting sports as you think you do.

Just please stop bringing this into my thread. This will be my last response to you on our bet and your records. I will not bother with people who can't keep accurate record keeping and have yet to learn the basics of betting NFL football regarding variance and basic bet types that are allowed.

If you wish to comment on my plays then that is fine, otherwise, keep it in your own thread.

Hey we have a bet. You probably want me to forget about it, but fine at least by PM I will update you if not in this thread. But my record is 100% accurate to all the plays I have posted in my thread (Including MNF plays), and you know that. Stop hatin. I know what variance is, and I know there is very little of it in the run I'm on.

And I will keep you updated on my ATS record as we go on.

Its hard cause most people bet with their hearts and don't know the NFL as well as we do. Believe me, I sucked at it too when I first started. Its not easy either, there is so many variables to account for when it comes to making a bet and so many different angles to look at. I think this season has been tougher than the last few also, but its been getting better as the season goes on. From here on til the end of the season I might have one more losing week, but thats it, I really like the way things are shaping up.

That's what I'm saying. What do you say to those people who say only 1% of bettors make profit long-term? I think thats BS. I mean, look at yourself, is it really THAT hard to make a weekly profit? No. I have finished on the green side 5 weekends in a row myself.

I'm just failing to understand, at these rates, which I think are sustainable, how is sports betting NOT a solid source of income?


I mean ask yourself, do you think you can keep up what you are doing? I'd say yes for me, and you. Would you agree? Don't you think it's at least "probable" you will keep this up. I mean, let's be honest, at this point it would take A LOT for either of us to have a "bad week".

[ScottLocke]

Hey we have a bet. You probably want me to forget about it, but fine at least by PM I will update you if not in this thread. But my record is 100% accurate to all the plays I have posted in my thread (Including MNF plays), and you know that. Stop hatin. I know what variance is, and I know there is very little of it in the run I'm on.

And I will keep you updated on my ATS record as we go on.





That's what I'm saying. What do you say to those people who say only 1% of bettors make profit long-term? I think thats BS. I mean, look at yourself, is it really THAT hard to make a weekly profit? No. I have finished on the green side 5 weekends in a row myself.

I'm just failing to understand, at these rates, which I think are sustainable, how is sports betting NOT a solid source of income?


I mean ask yourself, do you think you can keep up what you are doing? I'd say yes for me, and you. Would you agree? Don't you think it's at least "probable" you will keep this up. I mean, let's be honest, at this point it would take A LOT for either of us to have a "bad week".

I'll honer our bet, don't worry. I know your record is legit as far as our bet is concerned. I'm just talking bout those MNF plays you posted, and you had a lot of plays earlier this year that are nowhere to be found in your record. So I guess you did a reset or something. EVERY play I post goes to my record and mine is 100% accurate. I just don't want this bet stuff cluttering the thread up.

I play poker for a living, and I do make a nice chunk of change every year in the NFL, I also bet NBA and the second half of the season of NCAABB and make a little bit off of those(not as good with them as I am with NFL tho) Its hard to make a living solely off it though unless your unit size is 1000$ or more. Mine is only 100, I may up it to 200 next season though and its only 50 for basketball where my edge is smaller.

[bobbyk1133]

I'll honer our bet, don't worry. I know your record is legit as far as our bet is concerned. I'm just talking bout those MNF plays you posted, and you had a lot of plays earlier this year that are nowhere to be found in your record. So I guess you did a reset or something.

I pointed this out to him last week and he gave some rambling long-winded response that I stopped reading after the second sentence. It's not the first time wannabes distort their record around here and it won't be the last.

[ssk13809]

I'll honer our bet, don't worry. I know your record is legit as far as our bet is concerned. I'm just talking bout those MNF plays you posted, and you had a lot of plays earlier this year that are nowhere to be found in your record. So I guess you did a reset or something. EVERY play I post goes to my record and mine is 100% accurate. I just don't want this bet stuff cluttering the thread up.

I play poker for a living, and I do make a nice chunk of change every year in the NFL, I also bet NBA and the second half of the season of NCAABB and make a little bit off of those(not as good with them as I am with NFL tho) Its hard to make a living solely off it though unless your unit size is 1000$ or more. Mine is only 100, I may up it to 200 next season though and its only 50 for basketball where my edge is smaller.

Once again, EVERY PLAY I HAVE POSTED IN MY THREAD reflect my record. Nothing more, nothing less.

-Were the MNF plays in my thread? Yes. They are reflected.
- Were some plays I posted way early in the year in other threads in my thread? No. So they are not reflected.

And so on. MNF plays are reflected.

I mean, read my SIGNATURE

SSK's NFL Thread Picks

That's what it says. And that's exactly what it reflects. EVERYTHING posted of mine in my thread. Nothing else, nothing more. I'm sure you only are counting every play you posted in your thread whether you posted in other threads or not.











I didn't mean make a living on Sports Betting. I just meant, don't you think it could provide a source of income for life? I mean, don't you think, now at this point for you, it is easy?

[ScottLocke]

Well capped off this week finishing up 22~ units off a 9-3 record. Can't imagine having 12 plays in one week through the rest of the season though, there was just too much value to pass up. Even my 3 losses had very realistic chances of winning in the 4th quarter.

This week, at first glance does not look so great. Looks like Vegas has adjusted well. I was really looking to fade the Raiders and bet the Chargers big before the spreads came out. But Vegas' lines look real sharp in those games. There still might be a tiny bit of value in the Steelers and Chargers though. Steelers look like great teaser material at the very least.

I'm a little surprised the Eagles are only -3, another sharp line by Vegas, I was actually expecting them to over-react to last night and compensate a little for the fact that the public is gonna be in love with the Eagles now and come out with a line of -6 or even -7. I was ready to hop on the Giants if that was the case, but at only -3, there might be some value in the Eagles.

I have a couple other games i'm looking at, def won't be as many games bet or units bet as last week though.

[ssk13809]

Yeah I agree Scott, the lines are sharp this week

[bobbyk1133]

Well capped off this week finishing up 22~ units off a 9-3 record. Can't imagine having 12 plays in one week through the rest of the season though, there was just too much value to pass up. Even my 3 losses had very realistic chances of winning in the 4th quarter. This week, at first glance does not look so great. Looks like Vegas has adjusted well. I was really looking to fade the Raiders and bet the Chargers big before the spreads came out. But Vegas' lines look real sharp in those games. There still might be a tiny bit of value in the Steelers and Chargers though. Steelers look like great teaser material at the very least. I'm a little surprised the Eagles are only -3, another sharp line by Vegas, I was actually expecting them to over-react to last night and compensate a little for the fact that the public is gonna be in love with the Eagles now and come out with a line of -6 or even -7. I was ready to hop on the Giants if that was the case, but at only -3, there might be some value in the Eagles. I have a couple other games i'm looking at, def won't be as many games bet or units bet as last week though.

Agree about the lines. There is still value there, but they did well this week.

Disagree about PHI -3. This game should be a PK, if not NY favored by a bit. Making PHI -3 is a big inflation based on one week of action. Having said that, one could argue the line is right if you take into account who NY have played this season. If that factor is weighted then the line is pretty sharp.

GL this week

[ScottLocke]

Agree about the lines. There is still value there, but they did well this week.

Disagree about PHI -3. This game should be a PK, if not NY favored by a bit. Making PHI -3 is a big inflation based on one week of action. Having said that, one could argue the line is right if you take into account who NY have played this season. If that factor is weighted then the line is pretty sharp.

GL this week

You know the Eagles are home right? -3 suggests that it would be a pickem on a neutral field, and I think the Eagles are slightly better than the Giants right now. I would put the line at -4(so -1 on neutral field) And of course that is factored in, the Giants haven't beaten anybody this year, also, I don't know if you've noticed or not, but the Giants seem to start off every season well and start falling apart as the season goes on, and it looks like that trend could be starting again after last week.

[bobbyk1133]

You know the Eagles are home right? -3 suggests that it would be a pickem on a neutral field, and I think the Eagles are slightly better than the Giants right now. I would put the line at -4(so -1 on neutral field) And of course that is factored in, the Giants haven't beaten anybody this year, also, I don't know if you've noticed or not, but the Giants seem to start off every season well and start falling apart as the season goes on, and it looks like that trend could be starting again after last week.

I'm not about to crown PHI with anything just yet. The fact is NY has been the better team all year long. Before Sunday most people were debating whether NY was the best team in the NFL, not just the NFC. All of a sudden PHI are field goal favorites? -3 is clear line inflation and the public are already taking the bait. If it was over 3 I'd take NY just for the value - even if PHI is the better team right now.

[ScottLocke]

Meh I never had the Giants as the best in the NFC, i think Eagles, Saints, Falcons and Packers are all better than them. I just think they are very over-rated right now. Plus they are missing Steve Smith right now, who IMO is the 2nd most offensive player they have, ahead of Nicks and Bradshaw, he is the key to them converting 3rd downs and it is really gonna hurt them not having him until he gets back. I would not be surprised at all in the Giants miss the playoffs altogether so I am in no way crowning the Eagles anything yet by thinking they are better than the Giants.

[bobbyk1133]

Let's hope you are right because I hate the Giants. They are like most teams in the league right now. They can look the best or worst on any given Sunday. I also agree with you about their tendency to start off hot only to fade later. We'll learn a lot about both teams this week.

[Hibore222]

I definitely agree with Scott on the "making a living" line regarding sports gambling. I really recommend this article for a good explanation of that. http://www.professionalgambler.com/rjmiller1.htm

For every $100 of wager you make, a good long-term sports gambler (55-57%) will only make approximately a $7.60 profit on each $100 wager. Let's imagine a typical gambler that makes 20 plays a week. If you're betting $500 a play and hitting 56%, that would give you a weekly profit of $760, or about $39,000 a year. On the same token, if you want to bet $500 a game, and are managing your bankroll properly and never betting more than 2% of your bankroll per play, you should have a starting bankroll of $25,000 (and really should be a little more).

Ideally you want to grow your bankroll, but at $39,000 income a year before taxes (if sports gambling is your only source of income), it's hard to grow your bankroll that much.

Even if you have a job and can hit 56% long-term and have a goal of making an extra $1000 a month from gambling, you would still need to safely have a starting bankroll of at least $5,000-$10,000, and be making bets of about $100 a game and 20 games a week while hitting that 56%.

[ScottLocke]

Week #11 picks

Don't love anything this week, but I have a bunch of SMALL plays, should still be a good week.

Minnesota Vikings +3... 1U to win 1U
Cleveland Browns +2... 1.1U to win 1U
Seattle Seahawks +11.5... 1.1U to win 1U
San Francisco 49ers -3... 2.5U to win 2U
New England Patriots -3.5... 1.2U to win 1U
Philadelphia Eagles -3... 1.2U to win 1U
Buffalo Bills +6... 2.2U to win 2U

POTW ...6 point teaser
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5/Dallas Cowboys -0.5... 4.4U to win 4U

[ScottLocke]

Ugly day, knew this was a tough week going in though which is why I kept the units small, and I won my POTW to keep things from getting too bad. If the Eagles can pull out a win tonight i'll be exactly break even on the week which is not so bad at all considering I will have went 3-5.

And LOL at my Vikings and 9ers picks... oops! Was really expecting a better effort out of both of them at home.

I think I was on the right side with the Pats and Browns though, Jags are just running amazing in the luck department this year, and Pats can't seem to close games out. That half point really killed me when I could have had them at 3 earlier in the week. Just more of me not getting the best line available which has been killing me this year. Gonna have to work on that, and will prob be making some picks earlier in the week on lines that I think may move and hedge out on the other side and eat the juice if I later decide I do not like it.

[ChileCheese]

I expect you to even out a bit tonight... GO EAGLES!!!

[ScottLocke]

Well got the ugly win from the Eagles, but thats what good teams too, they win ugly when they have too. Feels good to break even this week since most sharps got crushed and the Public won big for the first time this year.

[Tower]

I'll take breaking even any day!

[ScottLocke]

I'll take breaking even any day!

Me too for the way it started out, I had pretty low expectations for this week to begin with.

Next week looks good at first glance. I see some value in the Bears at +3.5. Classic letdown game here for the Eagles, coming off two huge division wins, plus that Colts win, its gonna be real tough to get up emotionally for a 4th time in a row, and on the road this time. Plus they got a Thursday Night Football home game vs the Texans to look ahead to.

[ScottLocke]

I kinda like a 6 point teaser tonight with San Diego -2.5/Over 44.5.

Only if you can get the San Diego line at 8.5 tho, 6.5 and 7 point teasers lose a lot of value. Not a play for me yet, i'm in Vegas and all the Casinos still have San Diego stuck at -9.

[bobbyk1133]

PHI -3 is the play. CHI don't do good against good blitzing teams. That CHI offense will be in for a LONG day.

[ScottLocke]

PHI -3 is the play. CHI don't do good against good blitzing teams. That CHI offense will be in for a LONG day.

Chicagos Oline has been looking MUCH better the past few weeks. This is just a terrible spot for the Eagles I think. Obv I still hope the Eagles win, but the Bears also had the extra rest so that will help too.

[bobbyk1133]

Who have CHI's o-line looked good against? MIA held Culter to 150 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. WSH, BUF, MIN can't get to the QB this season and SEA embarrassed them.

This offense isn't designed to protect Cutler...he's going down on Sunday.

[ScottLocke]

I said much better, not good haha. I've seen every Chicago game this year and their oline was an absolute joke earlier in the season, and now its closer to average. This is more of a fade of the Eagles tho. I think it'll be a close game and either team could win. So from a betting standpoint I love getting 3.5 from a home dog and great defense. I prob won't bet much tho, cause I really enjoy watching the Eagles crush teams and I'd like to root for that again this week.

[ScottLocke]

Two early picks for week #12 to avoid some line movement.

Dallas Cowboys +4... 2.2U to win 2U
San Diego Chargers +3... 4.4U to win 4U

[ssk13809]

Scott where did you get those lines? Which book? Because almost all the main books have Cowboys +3.5, and Chargers +3. But the only ones who have Cowboys +4 have Chargers +2.5.

So just curious, which book do you use?

[ScottLocke]

I live in Vegas, got the Chargers at Red Rock(Stations Casinos) and the Cowboys online at Bodog.

[ssk13809]

I live in Vegas, got the Chargers at Red Rock(Stations Casinos) and the Cowboys online at Bodog.

Oh got ya


Good luck on your plays. SD one I'm in the middle on. Dallas one I don't like at all.

[ScottLocke]

And Chargers +3 is available almost everywhere online. Only a few books have them at +2.5.

[ssk13809]

And Chargers +3 is available almost everywhere online. Only a few books have them at +2.5.

That's what I said. Most books have Chargers +3. But the only books that have Cowboys +4 are the ones who have Chargers +2.5. So I was wondering which book gave you the best of both games. Because none of the main books on SBR at least do.


But okay I got it.

[ScottLocke]

Dallas' last four thanksgiving games they have won and covered, with the scores of 38-10, 34-3, 34-9 and 24-7. So they play very well on Thanksgiving. Plus they've been improving under Jason Garrett. They've had the talent all along to be good, they've just been underachieving. Either way, its only a 2unit bet, because you can never be sure which Dallas team will show up.