RLM System Plays

[Night-Tripper]

I feel the same way about this one..been watching it all evening

Just played them @ +260/200 on ML and +7/495. I'm not quite as strict as y'all... I use 3,000/game.

[Night-Tripper]

All are base unless otherwise noted:
Northeastern
GWU
Toledo
St. Joseph's
Duquesne
Fordham
Georgia Tech
Rhode Island
UNC Charlotte
Illinois State
Boise State
Colorado State

Pistons +195/200
Pistons/495
Raptors/495

Adding Texas A&M +7/495
Texas A&M +260/200

[Laissez Faire]

night-Tripper...so you don't use the stipulation of 3000 on side of favorite...you just take the bet when there's 3000 combined wagers? That was one of my questions for the system actually, so I'm glad you brought up the notion

[Laissez Faire]

7:00 plays look good through 1st half (rhode island +3.5, fordham +17.5, george washington +5.5, georgia tech +12, duquesne +4, northeastern +4, nc charlotte +9.5)..let's hope they keep playing well...the only game I'm concerned about is Toledo +13

[Night-Tripper]

night-Tripper...so you don't use the stipulation of 3000 on side of favorite...you just take the bet when there's 3000 combined wagers? That was one of my questions for the system actually, so I'm glad you brought up the notion

Yep... I just want a minmum of 3,000 bets total.

For football... it's a 10,000 bet minimum.

[detroitigerz]

The jury is still out because we don't have enough data. In the financial world there is software that could go back forever on tick/intra-minute data on analyze the impact of changing parameters. If we could have something like that here (automated), we could have already gone back to the start of the season AND past seasons and learned a lot.

Yeah that's exactly what we need... you should get started on tracking back to the beginning of the season R19!

[Laissez Faire]

well Northeastern, NC Charlotte, & Fordham (so close) are Losses...hoping Rhode Island, Toledo, & Duquesne finish strong

also hoping Illinois St has one hell of a 2nd half haha (down by 21 at halftime)


UPDATE: just saw that Duquesne covered and actually won the game...did anyone take them on ML?

so far, 1-3 tonight...w/ Rhode Island (in overtime), Illinois St, Toledo, Boise St, & Colorado St games pending

[ToPHeR]

**** u Toldeo

[Laissez Faire]

**** u Toldeo

my sentiments indeed...feel same way about the Fordham game (+17.5 and they lose by 18)

[Laissez Faire]

Yep... I just want a minmum of 3,000 bets total.

For football... it's a 10,000 bet minimum.

gotchu

[crockje]

7:00 plays look good through 1st half (rhode island +3.5, fordham +17.5, george washington +5.5, georgia tech +12, duquesne +4, northeastern +4, nc charlotte +9.5)..let's hope they keep playing well...the only game I'm concerned about is Toledo +13

damn u you jinxed them lol. Never post until game is over

[detroitigerz]

I could be having a brain fart but this doesn't look like it works to me... mav's getting .5 is helping them in the spread. whereas it's supposed to be hurting them, aka going to I would have liked it if it went to -2. but ive had a super long day full of geomatics numbers haha so I could be mistaken.

Also, with all of the RLM games tonight the only thats fitting my parameters right now
1.) >63%
2.) min 3000 bets
3.) at least .5 line movement
4.) spread equal to or under 7.5
5.) comparing the two teams stats.... posessions * points when on offense
points allowed
effective field goal percentages
true shooting percentages
etc....

is duquesne +4 WINNER

should note that step 5 ruled out the
-rhode island vs massachusetts WINNER
-northeastern vs drexel (not by much) LOSER
-xavier vs george washington (not by much) WINNER even though line DID jump back to static at last minute =(

.... just throwin this out there im 1-0 for the evening and if I would have played all the games suggested (just skipping section 5) I would have been 3-1

[R19]

The jury is still out because we don't have enough data. In the financial world there is software that could go back forever on tick/intra-minute data on analyze the impact of changing parameters. If we could have something like that here (automated), we could have already gone back to the start of the season AND past seasons and learned a lot.

To clarify, 'The jury is still out', right now we have several derivatives of the RLM Strategy that Night-Tripper outlined that are working. I think a huge part of untapped upside in addition to refining the approach is halves, money lines, parlays, teasers, etc. that he and many are playing.

[detroitigerz]

I'd be interested in hearing more about this night tripper strategy of betting in game, money lines and such. I saw it written by a few of you that this was a good strategy but I'm unsure of what how or when this applies... is it in this thread somewhere?

[R19]

I'd be interested in hearing more about this night tripper strategy of betting in game, money lines and such. I saw it written by a few of you that this was a good strategy but I'm unsure of what how or when this applies... is it in this thread somewhere?

It's a way to make the play more aggressively. There is mention by some throughout the thread when they make the plays. More advanced plays.

[Laissez Faire]

damn u you jinxed them lol. Never post until game is over

will not make the same mistake twice....sorry crockje

[Night-Tripper]

Not a RLM play... but I just placed a base bet on the Clippers -2.5 and am hoping to get the opportunity to play them on the Live Line should they manage to get down by 5 -> 9 going into a break.

[southpaw74]

FYI...San diego state should have a juicy middle opportunity if anyone wishes to take it.

[K-Rice]

Adding Texas A&M +7/495
Texas A&M +260/200

ooo so close on the upset.. good call on A&M

[garnetandblack]

FYI...San diego state should have a juicy middle opportunity if anyone wishes to take it.

-11?

[southpaw74]

I have -10.5 at bet islands. That means they can win by between 3 and 11 and I win both. I got them at +11.5 for the game with the free half point. Depending on how much I like it I'll bet between half and 3/4 of my original bet.

[southpaw74]

Down to -10 now...that concerns me a bit.

[grizzy]

FYI...San diego state should have a juicy middle opportunity if anyone wishes to take it.

Yeah -10 @ Pinny...might just lay off. I was hoping UNLV and Colorado State was close at half so I can take UNLV for the 2nd but that never materialized either.

[southpaw74]

Yeah -10 @ Pinny...might just lay off.

Just smaller...it's a nice size middle butnI don't know why it went down.

[detroitigerz]

btw southpaw, effin love your avatar caddyshack is my all time favorite.

[R19]

Good to clip a solid day after Monday and a quiet Tuesday.

[southpaw74]

btw southpaw, effin love your avatar caddyshack is my all time favorite.

Thanks, I play a lot of sports but went to college for golf. At least it's something I can do until I'm old. The shoulder is shot from baseball.

[southpaw74]

Well the middle was a push for San Diego because they missed the final free throw.

[wiseguy007]

RECORD UPDATE:

NCAAB

7:00pm 733 Fordham Rams OPEN +19.5 NOW +17.5 L

7:00pm 736 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +4 NOW +3.5 W

7:00pm 738 George Washington Colonials OPEN +6 NOW +5.5 W

7:00pm 739 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets OPEN +14.5 NOW +12.5 L

7:00pm 741 Duquesne Dukes OPEN +5 NOW +4 W

7:00pm 744 Northeastern Huskies open +5 now +4 L

7:00pm 751 NC Charlotte 49ers OPEN +10.5 NOW +9.5 L

7:00pm 755 Toledo Rockets OPEN +14.5 NOW +12.5 L

8:00pm 779 Illinois State Redbirds OPEN +12 NOW +10.5 L

10:15pm 799 Boise State Broncos OPEN +13 NOW +11 W

10:30pm 801 Colorado State Rams OPEN +15 NOW +14.5 L



NBA

7:35pm 705 Toronto Raptors OPEN +9.5 NOW +8.5 L

7:35pm 707 Detroit Pistons OPEN +6.5 NOW +6 W


RECORD FOR 2/1/12: 5-8


YTD: 53-38-1 58%

[Automoto]

There are so many .5 to 1 point games in following RLM's!!!!
I'm going to have a heart attack watching these games!

[staf]

Have punched the spreads into my spreadsheet and added a calculator to test detroitigerz maximum spread and minimum line movement filters.

I'm getting a maximum spread of 8 as ideal, and the one day that static line movement was posted they went 2-1 using a maximum spread of 8.

[R19]

Yeah that's exactly what we need... you should get started on tracking back to the beginning of the season R19!

It can be done. I think Free Sports has the historical data and Scores and Odds has decent data as well.

[R19]

Have punched the spreads into my spreadsheet and added a calculator to test detroitigerz maximum spread and minimum line movement filters.

I'm getting a maximum spread of 8 as ideal, and the one day that static line movement was posted they went 2-1 using a maximum spread of 8.

I am starting to think that there is an approach in the high spread games that can be counter bet although with higher risk. For now I will max 8 and focus on tracking the possibility of counter betting, and thinking about aggressive plays on the basic RLM System such as halves, money lines, parlays, and teasers as several are doing.

Keep in mind that the Mighty Quinn hot streak has been built of taking favorites in high spread games of smaller schools.


*** There are variations to the original RLM System as outlined on Page 1 going. ***

- Play if > 63% or allow some 61%, 62%, etc.
- Static and Reverse Line Movement or Reverse Line Movement of 0.5 or greater
- 3,000 Total Plays or at least one team with 3,000 plays
- All spreads or set a maximum spread
- Flat bet all games or flat bet with halves, money lines, parlays, etc. on a discretionary basis.
- Adjusting bet size depending on the 'strength' of the above parameters.
- Adding a discretionary capping approach or mixing with another system.

Lots to think about. For now, I have a few adjustments and running with those.

[detroitigerz]

Have punched the spreads into my spreadsheet and added a calculator to test detroitigerz maximum spread and minimum line movement filters. I'm getting a maximum spread of 8 as ideal, and the one day that static line movement was posted they went 2-1 using a maximum spread of 8.

Little bit hard for me to follow, but going to go over your spreadsheet... your numbers seem way different than mine at my first glance for instance... 27-9 in games <=8 with .5 movement or greater is way different than what I got.

Also I know it's early but has anyone else noticed that every single nba game today so far is considered an RLM? wtf? oh sorry except for one of them because theres not enough bets yet but im sure there will be by game time.

[Laissez Faire]

I am starting to think that there is an approach in the high spread games that can be counter bet although with higher risk. For now I will max 8 and focus on tracking the possibility of counter betting, and thinking about aggressive plays on the basic RLM System such as halves, money lines, parlays, and teasers as several are doing.

Keep in mind that the Mighty Quinn hot streak has been built of taking favorites in high spread games of smaller schools.


*** There are variations to the original RLM System as outlined on Page 1 going. ***

- Play if > 63% or allow some 61%, 62%, etc.
- Static and Reverse Line Movement or Reverse Line Movement of 0.5 or greater
- 3,000 Total Plays or at least one team with 3,000 plays
- All spreads or set a maximum spread
- Flat bet all games or flat bet with halves, money lines, parlays, etc. on a discretionary basis.
- Adjusting bet size depending on the 'strength' of the above parameters.
- Adding a discretionary capping approach or mixing with another system.

Lots to think about. For now, I have a few adjustments and running with those.

thanks for reposting this...I'm leaning towards capping some of the games using another system that did pretty well for me last year....last night, I probably wouldn't have taken Fordham, NC Charlotte, or Illinois State...but I wanted to follow the system fully to track results...I am still very impressed with how the system operates...especially since Toledo, Tech, & Fordham could have been covers last night.


just a sidenote...I grew up in Alabama so obivously I'm a Roll Tide Fan (have been one way before we started becoming relevant again nationally)...yesterday was signing day, and I'm sure you all know who has the #1 class (good job Saban). I know a lot of people hate on SEC football and what not....but you have to take it from someone who lived there for many many years...all that the south has is football....i have cousins who lost their homes in the tornado in Tuscaloosa last year. This past football season has truly helped rebuild the town, to say the least. In other parts of the country, you guys can argue about pro baseball, basketball, football, hockey, etc...the only thing that people in Alabama talk about is college football. So, yeah some people hate on the SEC, but Saturdays during the fall and winter in that area will be remembered forever because that was the only time that all people, regardless of race, would come together (I grew up in Montgomery, AL...Rosa parks, MLK, march to Selma, basically enough racial history to fill a book haha). I know that was off topic but I am just glad to see that program back on top because I know how much it means to the area


Looking forward to a good night tonight!