Mizzou game is getting interesting.... go mizzou! sorry guys -_- haha
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OH COME ON SERIOUSLY
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Took this way too early... i have mizzou GIVING 1.5
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... they better not win by 1...Comment -
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Most likely won't play games above 7.5 spread. Saturday may re-visit.
Back in front of a real keyboard. My review of the past week showed improved performance of the plays I took if I did not play games where the spread was more than 7.5 at game time. Saturday I had the same winning percentage as the official plays, but was 6-2 vs. 15-5. This is a huge difference, however, on a day like today I would have not played West Carolina, Washington Wizards, New Orleans Hornets. Also, I jumped on Detroit too early and that should not have been a play because of line movement plus the spread went to 8.
The short of it is today I took a 1-5-1 vs. a 1-1-1. I applied some good money management today and that saved my a$$. I am fine giving up explosive upside to substantially lower the volatility.
Also, I think there should be strong attention to two aspects of this system:
- Execution: Making sure a play is a play according to your approach/variation of RLM and executing as close to game time as possible if it's a marginal situation. Significant line movement can happen right until close. In the financial world it's where you buy and where you sell that counts. In sports wagering, unless you are hedging/changing your mind, it's where you buy so it pays to be on top of it.
- Opportunity: More food equals more opportunity for sharps or us or whatever, but I think we are seeing days with heavy schedules like Saturday work better. Makes sense to me and this should be watched.
Last edited by R19; 01-31-12, 10:27 AM.Comment -
This clipper game is nuts. Time to try to middle it I think!Comment -
Got lucky on the middle in the clippers game to save the night
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Just looked at NCAAB and NBA and there should be a number of games. As stated previously, I will most likely be playing only games with spreads of 7.5 or lower.
I noticed something on two NBA games opening lines and will watch whether or not they qualify:
Opening Lines from Free Sports / SBR / The RX
504 Cleveland: +1.5 / +3.0 / +1.5
510 Memphis: -1.5 / +1.5 / +1.5Last edited by R19; 01-31-12, 09:53 AM.Comment -
I have a question, sorry if this is repetitious I didn't see an answer in the first few pages of this thread. For the people that have been doing RLM for a while now... is the best strategy to wait until 5 minutes before the game to place all your bets to ensure that the spread hasn't moved back to even or moved in the opposite direction?Comment -
Many of us were playing it by tailing an SBR member on their thread. He then decided that he want to go pro and that is when Night-Tripper disclosed this whole approach. This started on 01.21.12 so we don't have a lot of data, but it has significance because we aren't really overlaying with other handicapping. You can see comments about this in the start/early part of the thread.
One way my approach differs is that I will play on static line movement. This is in line with the original approach posted, but I still think that percent line movement is a big part of the equation. If I filter to take only games that have 0.5 of movement or more that will change my result. I need to go back and look at everything in more detail, especially mid week last week.Comment -
Many of us were playing it by tailing an SBR member on their thread. He then decided that he want to go pro and that is when Night-Tripper disclosed this whole approach. This started on 01.21.12 so we don't have a lot of data, but it has significance because we aren't really overlaying with other handicapping. You can see comments about this in the start/early part of the thread.
One way my approach differs is that I will play on static line movement. This is in line with the original approach posted, but I still think that percent line movement is a big part of the equation. If I filter to take only games that have 0.5 of movement or more that will change my result. However, 0.5 of movement in a high spread is not a big percent change and a static line on a low spread may be more significant. I need to go back and look at everything in more detail, especially mid week last week.
I also want to look back because wiseguy007 proposed a money management approach based on how much RLM and percent favored a game is. It's back in the thread somewhere.Last edited by R19; 01-31-12, 10:54 AM.Comment -
It's early but setan hall and Texas tech both fitting nicely right now. Also bobcats in nba.Comment -
Well... I'm bored so I figure I'll go ahead and post the picks I see as of right now (probably not even relevant as I'm 6 hours behind tip-off haha) Maybe it will help someone to see where the lines were at 1 PM.
(sticking to R19's idea of only games under 7.5 spread)
NCAAB
Texas Tech OPEN +4 NOW +3
NBA
None
Only one game up right now under the 7.5 spread... I do have to say the Seton Hall game is awfully tempting at +8.5.... Excited to see where the lines go 30 min before tip-off.Comment -
Mich State might apply even though its slightly under 63%Comment -
If you have time, you could go back to 01.21.12 using Free Sports and Score & Odds and see what results you get with the following:
- '0.5 points of RLM or more' vs. 'static, 0.5 points of RLM or more'
- filtering with no games over 9.5 point spread
- filtering with no games over 8.5 point spread
- filtering with no games over 7.5 point spread
I am going to play no games over 7.5 spread and 'static, 0.5 points of RLM or more'. I may adjust and open it up on Saturday. BTW, the approach that wiseguy007 has been working very well, but I think we could all benefit from more data.Last edited by R19; 01-31-12, 02:30 PM.Comment -
I agree with you, I dont like playing the large spreads especially on a road team, but you can't ignore the line movement on the wisc/penn st game. moved from 10-8 which is a 20% line movement. This should be a pretty strong play in my opinion.
I have been using this RLM strategy since dozer went tout, but we need to cap the games ourselves as well. for example: wofford has been a very good team ATS this season, western carolina was 0-5 ATS last five road games and only covered once in their last 5 trips to wofford.
wizeguy and nighttrip are doing a great job providing a winning system for us (thanks!), but i'm ok with sitting out some winning plays if my own capping points to the other side
dozer sends me an email every few days asking me to subscribe lol im guessing he didnt sell as many subscriptions as he thought he would, and we all have nighttrip to thank for that because if it weren't for him shedding all this light on his system, I would have paid that scum bagComment -
mich st. is 65% now with solid rlmComment -
Yeah, the badgers is screaming at us to take penn state but I wouldn't be surprised if badgers won by 20. Not sure what to do yet. Setan hall and Texas tech alsoComment -
S Illinois as well.Comment -
Record update:
Record for 1/30/12: 1-3
ytd: 46-29-1 61%Comment -
UPDATE:
Games to Watch 1/31/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
NCAAB
7:00pm 518 Illinois Fighting Illini OPEN +3.5 NOW +1.5
8:00pm 523 Southern Illinois Salukis OPEN +13 NOW +12.5
8:00pm 528 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +10 NOW +8
8:00pm 529 Seton Hall Pirates OPEN +9 NOW +8.5
8:00pm 532 Texas Tech Red Raiders OPEN +4 NOW +3
NBA
10:35pm 513 Charlotte Bobcats OPEN +13.5 NOW +12.5
RECORD FOR 1/30/12: 1-3
YTD: 46-29-1 61%Comment -
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Woah sorry I'll delete that too hard to read... But basically from looking from 1/21 - 1/30 and comparing NCAAB and NBA games here is what I got. (uploaded to this web page because it was to hard to copy paste in here)
It's hard to draw many conclusions given this data.... although R19's strategy seems to be the one that would have payed out the best... His strategy being, only take the games if the spread is at 7.5 or lower AND there needs to be movement. Obviously this is only a weeks worth of data and I'm new here but I think I'm going to be trying this out for the next week and see how it goes.
Thus right now I am looking intently at Illinois, Texas Tech, and.... Penn State (but I'm with southpaw on this one it's gonna be hard for me to make that bet so I'm unsure of it at this moment.)
- For the data I used where the spread ended NOT opened at.
-Also all of this data was found and used from the freesportsbet website... I will be doing the sportsandodds website tomorrow or when I get some more time.
BOL to all!Last edited by detroitigerz; 01-31-12, 06:06 PM. Reason: Uploaded chart to tiny pic so easy to read nowComment -
How confident are we that freesportsbets betting trends are representative of people who are actually laying cash on the games?
From perusing that site, it seems that the #of bets and betting trends are derived from the people using that site for free contests. I'm also seeing quite a bit of variability from another site I use for betting trends. This RLM approach is solid, but I'm not sure that we are getting the best data from that site...Comment -
You can also use the insert spreadsheet module tool or the attachment tool (in the full reply screen)
Wouldn't mind taking a look myself...Comment -
In the summary at the bottom of your spreadsheet, are those labels correct?Woah sorry I'll delete that too hard to read... But basically from looking from 1/21 - 1/30 and comparing NCAAB and NBA games here is what I got. (uploaded to this web page because it was to hard to copy paste in here)
It's hard to draw many conclusions given this data.... although R19's strategy seems to be the one that would have payed out the best... His strategy being, only take the games if the spread is at 7.5 or lower AND there needs to be movement. Obviously this is only a weeks worth of data and I'm new here but I think I'm going to be trying this out for the next week and see how it goes.
Thus right now I am looking intently at Illinois, Texas Tech, and.... Penn State (but I'm with southpaw on this one it's gonna be hard for me to make that bet so I'm unsure of it at this moment.)
- For the data I used where the spread ended NOT opened at.
-Also all of this data was found and used from the freesportsbet website... I will be doing the sportsandodds website tomorrow or when I get some more time.
BOL to all!
2 things to keep in mind:
- I have been playing games with static spreads or 0.5 or greater RLM
- If there is a decent winning percentage, there has to be something said for volume. For example, Saturday I was 6-2 and the official plays were 15-5. Both had a 75% winning percentage, but 15-5 creates more net profit. As I mentioned, I opened it up Sunday and Monday and for me Monday would have been 1-1-1 vs. 1-5-1 if I played no games with a spread > 7.5.Last edited by R19; 01-31-12, 06:26 PM.Comment -
Not to mention Illinois and Tech are both at home. Those are my only plays.Comment -
Anything official yet?Comment -
Was the Memphis opening line -1.5 or +1.5? I think it was +1.5.Comment
