RLM System Plays

staf · 02-01-12, 06:21 PM

Here's my spreadsheet of the picks from this thread.

It's too early to tell, but it might be a good idea to have at least one point of line movement to bet on college basketball.

wiseguy007 · 02-01-12, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by crockje

Just misread team getting points I understand how rlm works sorry about that

It is a bit confusing when looking at it, but DAL would have to go to -2 or up to be a play.

It even got me at first, lol

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 06:26 PM

Toledo is +13 now...just giving update..still a play though

detroitigerz · 02-01-12, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by Laissez Faire

I have noticed that this system churns out plays for underdogs to cover, but I was wondering if a situation were to ever arise in which a favorite would actually become a play using this system. Tonight I have found that game in OKC vs Dallas.

Dallas opened as 1.5 point favorites, but now are just 1 point favorites (.5 line movement....check)

The public (71%) is betting with OKC, who is an underdog of 1 point. (public betting against team for play & at least 63%...check)

3,000 bets...check

THEREFORE, I think that Dallas -1 (or Dallas pk if that's what your book offers) would be a play tonight. Let me know if my logic is correct.

I could be having a brain fart but this doesn't look like it works to me... mav's getting .5 is helping them in the spread. whereas it's supposed to be hurting them, aka going to I would have liked it if it went to -2. but ive had a super long day full of geomatics numbers haha so I could be mistaken.

Also, with all of the RLM games tonight the only thats fitting my parameters right now
1.) >63%
2.) min 3000 bets
3.) at least .5 line movement
4.) spread equal to or under 7.5
5.) comparing the two teams stats.... posessions * points when on offense
points allowed
effective field goal percentages
true shooting percentages
etc....

is duquesne +4

should note that step 5 ruled out the
-rhode island vs massachusetts
-northeastern vs drexel (not by much)
-xavier vs george washington (not by much)

detroitigerz · 02-01-12, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by staf

Here's my spreadsheet of the picks from this thread.

It's too early to tell, but it might be a good idea to have at least one point of line movement to bet on college basketball.

I totally agree with this, when I looked back at the data beginning on 1/21 up until now yesterday the lines that moved the most were the ones that seemed to cover by the biggest margin.

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

I could be having a brain fart but this doesn't look like it works to me... mav's getting .5 is helping them in the spread. whereas it's supposed to be hurting them, aka going to I would have liked it if it went to -2. but ive had a super long day full of geomatics numbers haha so I could be mistaken.

Also, with all of the RLM games tonight the only thats fitting my parameters right now
1.) >63%
2.) min 3000 bets
3.) at least .5 line movement
4.) spread equal to or under 7.5
5.) comparing the two teams stats.... posessions * points when on offense
points allowed
effective field goal percentages
true shooting percentages
etc....

is duquesne +4

should note that step 5 ruled out the
-rhode island vs massachusetts
-northeastern vs drexel (not by much)
-xavier vs george washington (not by much)

thanks for the insight detroitigerz

...i'm an editor for television shows, so my mind was obviously still in story land from work today haha..i defintely see that there is no RLM on the Dallas game unless Dallas becomes favored by more points. Thanks to everyone for not making me feel stupid when responding to my query. Definitely enjoying the info passed along in this group. GL to everyone tonight

btw detroitigerz...i like your extended parameters..will definitely be utilizing a similar system in the future to weed out picks...so Duquesne is your only play tonight then?

wiseguy007 · 02-01-12, 06:39 PM

I do not understand why everyone is trying to put so many limits on this system, it is hitting over 60%, there is never going to be a straight bet system that hits 100%.

GLTA

detroitigerz · 02-01-12, 06:42 PM

Yeah it's the only one I actually bet on... Two teams are fairly matched up IMO, my stat sheet only has dayton winning by 1 or 2 points and RLM movement of 1 point is nice. Don't honestly feel super comfortable with the bet but I'm sticking with the system and the numbers so we'll see how it goes haha.

Sorry about reposting about how the mav's pick was wrong I started typing that post before I saw anyone responded haha.

detroitigerz · 02-01-12, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

I do not understand why everyone is trying to put so many limits on this system, it is hitting over 60%, there is never going to be a straight bet system that hits 100%.

GLTA

totally heard that... I just don't have the bankroll you guys have so I'm trying to narrow it down to fewer games to pick

wiseguy007 · 02-01-12, 06:44 PM

UPDATE: 6:44PM

Games to Watch 2/01/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

NCAAB

7:00pm 736 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

7:00pm 738 George Washington Colonials OPEN +6 NOW +5.5

7:00pm 739 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets OPEN +14.5 NOW +12.5

7:00pm 741 Duquesne Dukes OPEN +5 NOW +4

7:00pm 744 Northeastern Huskies open +5 now +4

7:00pm 751 NC Charlotte 49ers OPEN +10.5 NOW +9.5

7:00pm 755 Toledo Rockets OPEN +14.5 NOW +12.5

8:00pm 779 Illinois State Redbirds OPEN +12 NOW +10.5

10:15pm 799 Boise State Broncos OPEN +13 NOW +11

10:30pm 801 Colorado State Rams OPEN +15 NOW +14.5

NBA

7:35pm 705 Toronto Raptors OPEN +9.5 NOW +9

7:35pm 707 Detroit Pistons OPEN +6.5 NOW +6

YTD: 48-30-1 61%

garnetandblack · 02-01-12, 06:45 PM

Northeastern looks like a play now.

Edit: I see wiseguy has it listed.

Malloy2 · 02-01-12, 06:45 PM

add Northeastern. Gonna put some change on the ml as well love the huskies tonight

Malloy2 · 02-01-12, 06:46 PM

haha good sh!t guys bol

wiseguy007 · 02-01-12, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

totally heard that... I just don't have the bankroll you guys have so I'm trying to narrow it down to fewer games to pick

Yeah I get you, just dont want to see you put yourself out of the money as well.

Im open to hearing any ideas as well.

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 06:47 PM

haha don't sweat it...i'm all about constructive criticism

Galante118 · 02-01-12, 06:49 PM

are these offiicial plays? or just most recent update!

garnetandblack · 02-01-12, 06:50 PM

Fordham a play now? Temple has 67% of action and over 3,000 bets. Fordham opened at +19.5 and now at +17.5

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 06:51 PM

Wiseguy...even though i was wrong in making the Mavs a play tonight, would the play have been correct if all of the same stipulations existed and Dallas moved from -1.5 to -2?

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by garnetandblack

Fordham a play now? Temple has 67% of action and over 3,000 bets. Fordham opened at +19.5 and now at +17.5

that's all I was waiting on to make this a play

wiseguy007 · 02-01-12, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by Laissez Faire

Wiseguy...even though i was wrong in making the Mavs a play tonight, would the play have been correct if all of the same stipulations existed and Dallas moved from -1.5 to -2?

Yes, that is right

wiseguy007 · 02-01-12, 06:59 PM

UPDATE:

NCAAB

7:00pm 733 Fordham Rams OPEN +19.5 NOW +17.5

7:00pm 736 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

7:00pm 738 George Washington Colonials OPEN +6 NOW +5.5

7:00pm 739 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets OPEN +14.5 NOW +12.5

7:00pm 741 Duquesne Dukes OPEN +5 NOW +4

7:00pm 744 Northeastern Huskies open +5 now +4

7:00pm 751 NC Charlotte 49ers OPEN +10.5 NOW +9.5

7:00pm 755 Toledo Rockets OPEN +14.5 NOW +12.5

8:00pm 779 Illinois State Redbirds OPEN +12 NOW +10.5

10:15pm 799 Boise State Broncos OPEN +13 NOW +11

10:30pm 801 Colorado State Rams OPEN +15 NOW +14.5

NBA

7:35pm 705 Toronto Raptors OPEN +9.5 NOW +9

7:35pm 707 Detroit Pistons OPEN +6.5 NOW +6

Night-Tripper · 02-01-12, 07:05 PM

All are base unless otherwise noted:
Northeastern
GWU
Toledo
St. Joseph's
Duquesne
Fordham
Georgia Tech
Rhode Island
UNC Charlotte
Illinois State
Boise State
Colorado State

Pistons +195/200
Pistons/495
Raptors/495

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 07:09 PM

Pistons +5.5 & Raptors +8.5 now

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

Yes, that is right

cool. thanks wiseguy

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

All our base unless otherwise noted;
Northeastern
GWU
Toledo
St. Joseph's
Duquesne
Fordham
Georgia Tech
Rhode Island
UNC Charlotte
Illinois State
Boise State
Colorado State

Pistons +195/200
Pistons/495
Raptors/495

I had St. Joe's as a play at first, but then the line went back to +2, so I took it off my list. Did it go back down to 1.5 on your book before you placed bet or did you just take the Hawks +2?

Night-Tripper · 02-01-12, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by Laissez Faire

I had St. Joe's as a play at first, but then the line went back to +2, so I took it off my list. Did it go back down to 1.5 on your book before you placed bet or did you just take the Hawks +2?

I was having my wife place the bets, because by the time I got home... all of the 1800 CDT games would have been gone. So... long story short... at the time she placed all of my bets... everything was copasetic.

If a State Trooper had pulled up next to me, I woulda been going to jail. Talking on Cell Phone while reading her the plays she'd placed for me... off of a scrap of paper... dangling from my steering wheel... so that she could make her reply with my bets... so that they'd be recorded before someone stated that I was past-posting. (Is that one Hell of a runon sentence, or what?)

ToPHeR · 02-01-12, 07:23 PM

Pistons ML night?

Night-Tripper · 02-01-12, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by ToPHeR

Pistons ML night?

Yep... like them tonight.

R19 · 02-01-12, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

I do not understand why everyone is trying to put so many limits on this system, it is hitting over 60%, there is never going to be a straight bet system that hits 100%.

GLTA

The jury is still out because we don't have enough data. In the financial world there is software that could go back forever on tick/intra-minute data on analyze the impact of changing parameters. If we could have something like that here (automated), we could have already gone back to the start of the season AND past seasons and learned a lot.

Sourbumpy · 02-01-12, 07:26 PM

BOL Tripper

Night-Tripper · 02-01-12, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by Sourbumpy

BOL Tripper

Bwah ha ha ha ha... damn near didn't recognize you, dude... thanks for changing your avatar... U b da man!

Sourbumpy · 02-01-12, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

Bwah ha ha ha ha... damn near didn't recognize you, dude... thanks for changing your avatar... U b da man!

R19 · 02-01-12, 07:35 PM

Looking at Texas A&M - but it doesn't quite have the volume.

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

If a State Trooper had pulled up next to me, I woulda been going to jail. Talking on Cell Phone while reading her the plays she'd placed for me... off of a scrap of paper... dangling from my steering wheel... so that she could make her reply with my bets... so that they'd be recorded before someone stated that I was past-posting. (Is that one Hell of a runon sentence, or what?)

HAHA...I had an English teacher in high school whose pet peeve was run-on sentences. One of my good friends was a football star (he actually won ring with the packers last year) & she would yell at him about his lack of punctuation marks until the bell rang...nostalgia

Laissez Faire · 02-01-12, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by R19

Looking at Texas A&M - but it doesn't quite have the volume.

I feel the same way about this one..been watching it all evening