Just looked...15-7 Fordham in 5 minutes...wtf?
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Eh what the hell. I'll go back to the bread and butter and see if I can make up for the shit 1st half pick.
[2nd Half] Fordham-Siena Over 71 [-110]Comment -
That line dropped to 69.5. People must be loving the under.Comment -
Guess they were right too. Couldn't wait as I was leaving work when the # was posted. Not enough fouls to help much either. Meh.Comment -
[2nd Half] Oral Roberts-UALR Under 70 [-110]Comment -
Wow that game really slowed after the 10 minute mark. Good call
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Whew! Thanks to Oral Roberts for nailing that 3 to save us from over time!Comment -
[2nd Half] Portland State-Oregon Under 78 [-110]Comment -
We need a drought for a few minutes...figures they come out making everything and fouling like crazy.Comment -
Well the under is gonna get shit on, but on the plus side - Portland State will cover likely. So it's a wash for me.Comment -
Overall Record: 103-74-4 [+22.92]
2nd Halves: 58-36 [+19.30]Comment -
12.13.11
[7pm ET]
Dartmouth-IUPU Ft.Wayne Over 136.5 [-110]
Efficient offense. Piss poor defense. That is Ft.Wayne's MO. They shoot 45% from the floor, 38% from distance and put up almost 78 ppg. On defense, they let opponents shoot 50% and score 80 ppg. The Mastodons have let EVERYONE score on them, both good and bad. So even though Dartmouth is challenged offensively, the Ivy Leaguers should score some points tonight. IUPU-FW isn't necessarily up-tempo, but they certainly don't mind it and seem to produce just as well with more possessions per game. Datrmouth is not a high possession club, but they're not quite a slow Princeton-style possession team either. They look to get in the mid 60s possession-wise most games. I'm going with bad offense takign advantage of poor defense much like Fordham did last night with Siena.Comment -
Figures last night the shitty offensive team can't stop scoring, tonight they suck like a shitty scoring team should and I have an over.
Oh well, 2nd halves I am waiting for you to pad the stats tonight fukko.Comment -
NCAAB: [2nd Half] Drexel-Niagara Over 70.5 [-110]
Let's see what I know here. Possessions formula point to Under, but my gut tells me otherwise.Comment -
Yikes. Where did you go Niagara? Drexel did their part for this over. Niagara not so much. So much for the gut. Need to get my mojo going.Comment -
how abt Wisconsin O60 ??? EaglesFanComment -
No edge to me on that number. Skipping it and waiting for the 9pm ET starts to get to the half. Man, just brutal lately. Thought the Drexel game was going to get real close. Needed 12 points with 1:45 left and then all of a sudden, no scoring again and it winds up 10 points under.Comment -
[2nd Half] UC Irvine-Wyoming Under 68 [-110]Comment -
[2nd Half] FAU-Mississippi State Over 74.5 [-110]Comment -
[2nd Half] Ill. Chicago-Oregon State Over 71 [-110]
Let's go Mojo!Comment -
eagles, why do you like the over? I'm on the opposite, but I just want to understand. Maybe I missed something.Comment -
Possessions in the 1st half were right at 71. Normally with the formula I use, if they were anywhere close to a point per possession and then do not raise the number in the 2nd half ... the over is where I want to play as I expect the output the be greater than the 1st half.
For 2nd halves, I usually expect at least five additional possessions due to fouling, etc. so that is the number I start off with when comparing the first half stats. In this case, that number would have been 76. 71 1st half possessions + an estimated five more in the 2nd.Comment -
they're killing the over. congrats.
focking bytch craig robinson screwes me over again. assholeComment -
how do you get the amount of possessions?Comment -
Field Goal Attempts minus Offensive Rebounds, plus turnovers, plus Free Throw Attempts multiplied by .475. THat's not my formula, but one I found doing a google search several seasons ago. Seems pretty accurate in determining that sort of thing or at least has you right in the ballpark with the actual number. So basically ...
FGAs - OREB + TOs + FTA x .475
Once you get the number of possessions, then you can compare it to the point output for the 1st half and kind of make your determination of where you think the game might go once the books set the number. There are definitely times when I go against the grain of the numbers if the game just has the feel of one where points are going to keep going, etc. .... but generally, I like to stick to determining it by the numbers. Would have saved me a loss in the Drexel 2nd half tonight because the #s definitely lent to an under.Comment -
Decent night after a shaky start.
Overall Record: 106-76-4 [+23.72]
2nd Halves: 61-37 [+21.20]Comment -
[FGAs - OREB] + [TO + (FTAs x .475)]
So for example, say there were 57 FGAs in the 1st half of a game. 14 turnovers, 8 offensive rebounds and 17 FTAs ... the possessions # would be [57-8] + [14 + (17 x .475)] or 71.Comment -
Bringing your mojo back right here!!!Comment -
12.13.11
[3pm ET[
Iona-Richmond Over 147 [-110]
Obvious contrast in styles where Iona would love to play at greyhound speed more and Richmond works that half-court Princeton-style set. Going OVERs here though due to Iona's defensive struggles. Richmond is a team that can get hot from deep and Iona has not defending the arc consistently. Offensively, Iona is efficient even when forced more into a half court set. Even when they were blown out by Marshall, they shot over 50% from the field. This is the first real test for Richmond's defense which has nice numbers so far. FTs big here, I think.
Would have waited for a 2nd half play only on this one, but won't be near computer when half time hits - so going to give this a try as my one full game bet.Comment -
Or buried with the Richmond tempo.
At some point, I'll learn to maybe just do second halves.
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It's looking good dog
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Yeah no kidding, drove to work and look like the tempo and shooting picked up nicely. Still got work to do, but has a good chance.Comment -
Playing a few more full games than usual because I may miss out on half times until the very late slate with family visiting me tonight.
[7pm ET]
Princeton-Rider Under 132.5 [-110]
Typical clash of styles. Princeton wants it slow and efficient, Rider wants to push it. I think Princeton has shown time after time that its style wins and they don't often stray from their game plan. That will leave Rider to adjust, I think. I think the game between Penn and Rider provides a good blue print for tonight as the Quakers also value a half court game more and held Rider to 59 in regulation, while scoring just 59 themselves. Rider's defense is terrible, but Princeton hasn't topped 69 points this year. They also haven't allowed more than 73 points since their season opener and haven't played a game over this total all season.Comment -
[7pm ET]
Ole Miss -13 [-110]
The one thing I hate about backing the Rebels is their pathetic free throw shooting, but I think this situation is still ripe to take them. They host Lafayette who will be without two key players and potentially a third either limited or out. Lafayette is without Scottie Farrington and JJ Thomas is hampered with lingering effects from knee surgery. He has missed four straight and isn't expected to play tonight. Big man Kadeem Coleby is iffy with an ankle injury, he's their leading scorer and defensive presence inside. With those three, they still had trouble on the road/neutral settings, going 0-5 and losing by 17 or more in three of those. Ole Miss comes in a 8-1. They have shot better at home and dominated the boards which should be a big factor with Lafayette's missing post players tonight.Comment
