Typical of my day to lose both those bets. OT in one and Ole Miss doesn't score for three minutes.
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[2nd Half] DePaul-Northern Illinois Under 73 [-110]Comment -
Not looking like my night at all.
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[2nd Half] South Florida-Auburn Under 66 [-110]Comment -
Getting funnier by the minute. DePaul goes over at 74.Comment -
lose by 1pts
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[2nd Half] UTEP-UNLV Over 69 [-110]
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2nd halves continue to save my butt. Another winning day with them and a point from 3-0 on them, 1-2 on the others, 3-3 overall.
Overall Record: 109-79-4 [+23.32]
2nd Halves: 63-38 [+22.10]
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12.15.11
[8pm ET]
UC Irvine-LSU Under 135 [-110]
LSU has found its defense in the last month or so. The Tigers have hit UNDERs in five of their last six, giving up under 60 points in those five. Offensively, they have struggled - shooting just 38% over their last five. Irvine has a solid FG defense number at just 39% shooting allowed, but the PPG allowed is near 72 as they like to push the tempo. LSU seems to have found their niche offensively as they average in the mid-to-upper 60s possession wise and play a Euro-style attack under Trent Johnson. With neither team shooting particularly well and both teams being capable on defense, I think this one fits in under the total as long as LSU doesn't let the tempo get out of control.Comment -
[2nd Half] Savannah State-Wisconsin Under 58 [-110]Comment -
Eagles, does your formula apply for NBA and Football??Comment -
It could apply to the NBA, not football. Apparently Wisconsin didn't feel like playing defense any more. Oh well, maybe there's a drought somewhere in this half still.Comment -
I applied your formula, but it seems like I need a little bit more Luck. Lose 2 game by half point so far. The result of formula plus 5 more pts right Eagles?Comment -
Hell of a thread EA.Comment -
[2nd Half] Oral Roberts-Gonzaga Under 75 [-110]Comment -
i like under hereComment -
Overall Record: 112-79-4 [+26.32]
2nd Halves: 65-38 [+24.10]
Good night. Clean sweep.
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Okay, Possession Formula Basics.
1. Calculate the # of possessions based on the 1st half stats. Compare it to the total number of points scored so you can get a ratio of points scored per possession. For example: Wisconsin led Savannah State tonight, 32-14 at the half. Possessions came out to 55, so that is far less than a point per possession.
2. Add about five possessions to the # of possessions in the first half to come up with a guess of the approximate amount of 2nd half possessions.
3. Find the 2nd half total at your book and then compare it to the number of possessions you determined for the 2nd half. Example: Wisconsin-Savannah State would be estimated to be about 60 2nd half possessions. Total was set at 58.
Okay, now it's decision time. Here's how I normally break it down.
*If the point per possession ratio in the 1st half was well under one point per possession and the total is set close to the estimated # of 2nd half possessions = UNDER is the play.
*If the point per possession ratio in the 1st half was one point per possession or better and the 2nd half total equals the estimated # of 2nd half possessions or is just slightly more = OVER is the play.
*In both these instances listed above, look for a clear cut edge. Look for a solid differential in the number of possessions and point scored to take the under and oppositely, look for at least a 1:1 ratio at worst when you think about taking overs. There are always exceptions where you gut might tell you to go one way or another - but usually, if there is not a clear edge - PASS on the total. There will be more games to choose from.
Now there are always different feels to each game that you should also take into account. Look at the # of fouls committed and free throws taken. If there are a lot and the formula points to an under, could be a good one to skip. Look at the # of three pointers taken by both teams and what percentage that # is of the total FGs taken in the 1st half. For example, Oral Roberts and Gonzaga combined to take about 40% of their shots from three in the 1st half of their game. The more jumpers that are being taken, the less likelihood you're going to get into a foul fest to help a potential over.Comment -
I'm very appreciate your formula and your explanation. What I did so far, I added 5 pts to an estimated # of 2nd half possessions. Then I compare it to the 2nd Total. If it > the Total, Over. If not, Under is the play.
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How do you feel about the Weber State +16.5? I personally like the big line against Cal.Comment -
There's games too where I just go with my gut feeling sometimes too if say it's two teams that normally score very well and they just both shot like crap in the 1st half, but had a fair amount of FTs. Mostly I am trying to stick to this formula as it seems to be working for the most part right now.Comment -
12.16.11
Only half time plays for me tonight. Overall slate as it's been most of the week, very weak and cannot find a play that doesn't seem like a force.Comment -
[2nd Half] Illinois Chicago-Central Michigan Over 71 [-110]Comment -
Let's get some...I took central mich -5 1H and they screwed me in the last minute and a halfComment -
Boom goes the dynamite.
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Nice cash...70kg has over 70 at canisius...you agree?Comment -
Sorry man, I wasn't paying attention. Good start to it though.Comment -
g'ya!Comment -
[2nd Half] Idaho State-Utah Over 68.5 [-110]Comment -
hey EP i remember you from the tennis from lol, iooks like your onto something good here, how long youve been doing this 2h half total thing?Comment -
NCAAB: [2nd Half] UCSB-Washington Over 82.5 [-110]
I tested it out last year, but I don't think I was as disciplined as needed last year in following the formula. I still tended to make too many "gut plays" instead of going more often with what the formula called for.Comment -
That minute plus stretch where they went scoreless in this one is the death blow in Utah.Comment -
[2nd Half] Weber State-California Under 73 [-110]Comment -
Damn the Washington one just really fell apart quick. Blah.Comment
